Monday, September 29, 2014

Interest in taking on record levels of debt in decline


This was not news for me as I have been watching the mortgage market very closely via google trends. The reason for using google trends is that I believe it to be less manipulated than bank/government stats. If you also take trends for Rightmove's website interest and the above 'mortgage loan' website category you will find a strong correlation between google search interest and property prices. There is a few months lag between prices falling and interest in mortgages falling, but that could be the land registry and sales process lag. You will also find that price rises also correlate with increased interest in mortgages. The above chart if for UK only.

Posted by khards @ 10:51 AM (2179 views)
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5 thoughts on “Interest in taking on record levels of debt in decline

  • Opps, posted comment into the article, but there you go it’s there for all to see.

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  • Doesn’t that chart just show that interest in mortgages goes down in November and December each year – and climbs every January? And that since 2011 the trend is upwards?

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  • Correct it shows that interest in mortgages is seasonal and had been building from 2010 until about May when it started an unseasonable decline. August and September (right at the end of the chart) are unseasonably low.
    Assuming that interest in mortgages declines in October, November (as usual) and December (as usual), that will make 10 straight months of decline which is something that has not been seen for a while.

    There won;t be much interesting action on this chart until the property ramping starts in earnest January. I am predicting that levels of interest at these prices and interest rates will be back to 2012 levels and the March 2013 to May 2014 mini bubble is truly dead.

    Time will tell. From observation, once there is a decline in interest it continues for sometime.

    The most important part of this chart is the last 2014 hump and the huge 2008 level peak formed back in January and it’s subsequent decline.

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  • Ahhh 2005, the memories. We bought our first place in 2006, from memory anyone with a pluse or who could fog a mirror could get a 125% mortgage! I was very green back in 2006, had graduated for 1.5 years and was living in a bedsit. Like many others we just wanted somewhere to live and borrowed the money to do so.

    Had I have been born 4/5 years earlier then I wouldn’t have had a student loan or high house prices to content with!

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