July 2014 Archive

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

à cause de Hollande

Bloomberg: Market in France in ‘Meltdown’ After Hollande Rent Caps

Blague à part..."Hollande, who has been trying to revive an economy that has barely grown in two years, is grappling with a record 3.3 million jobless claims and an approval rating that’s at the lowest level ever for any French president".

Posted by alan @ 09:19 PM 8 Comments

When the going gets tough......the regulator caves in

Citywire: Banks to approve in-house advisers under FCA plans

Financial advisers at banks will no longer be approved by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) but by their employers on an annual basis under the regulator's proposals.................This would include consumer-facing roles including retail investment advisers and mortgage advisers, it said. Comments section say's it all !

Posted by jack c @ 12:53 PM 1 Comments

UK Government sold their citizens down the river over housing

Bloomberg.com: Hong Kong Popping Housing Bubbles London Can’t Handle

While such actions may seem contradictory to the cities’ stated free-market principles, “affordable housing is part of the legitimacy of any government, and government has a role to play in intervening in the market in periods where there are extreme circumstances,” said Michael Klibaner, who heads Greater China research at real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. in Hong Kong.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:57 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Maybe should have stopped pumping it up!

Independent: Mortgages: 'Homeowners could trade down to shared ownership to defuse rate rise timebomb'

Homebuyers should be allowed to “trade down” to a shared ownership deal so they can stay in their home and avoid it being repossessed, the Resolution Foundation think tank has proposed.

Posted by happy mondays @ 09:17 AM 14 Comments

Monday, July 28, 2014

Interest not rising

Guardian: Keep UK interest rate low for now, IMF tells Bank of England

Only raise IR if house prices keep going up? And oh look, house prices are allegedly dropping :- http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jul/28/average-house-prices-stall-1m-plus-properties-england-wales So that's OK then? I swear the game is rigged more than a LIBOR call.

Posted by delibes @ 09:15 PM 2 Comments

The next leg down begins

Telegraph: The pound is overvalued, warns the IMF

The IMF has warned that the pound is overvalued by 5pc-10p, in an update of its wide-ranging annual assessment of Britain's economy. After depreciating by 23pc between 2007 and 2009, the real exchange rate has gradually appreciated, and this trend accelerated from the middle of 2013, the fund said, as it praised the Bank of England for keeping interest rates low and welcomed signs that Britain's surprisingly strong economic recovery is broadening. "Wages are growing very slowly and, although output is beginning to pick up, the recovery is still at an early stage and there is still a lot of slack in the economy,"

Posted by khards @ 06:34 PM 2 Comments

Hope not!

Bloomberg: Housing Bubble May Pop Entire U.K. Economy

You may not want to bring this up at any London dinner parties, but there are tentative signs that the bubble in U.K. housing prices that's helped boost the economic recovery by underpinning consumer confidence may be running out of puff. Given the British obsession with home ownership, any evidence of real-estate deflation will complicate the Bank of England's efforts to nudge borrowing costs higher.

Posted by peter rocker @ 03:38 PM 3 Comments

HPC started 2 months back

Evening Standard: House prices in London slow to a halt as 'silly season' ends

As per Land Registry, hosue prices stopped esing in June. Since they have a 2-3 month lag..

Posted by yes @ 02:56 PM 1 Comments

The Problem With Getting On The Property Ladder

KIS Bridging Loans Blog: UK's Property Ladder Woes Revealed

After the property market crashed during the 2008 recession, homeowners have been allowed a sigh of relief recently as things appear to be on the up again; but what about first time buyers? A combination of rising house prices and lacklustre savings rates has meant many of those wanting to get their foot on the property ladder have got to make some sacrifices.

Posted by pete finnegan @ 02:18 PM 0 Comments

Housing crash now on

Dailymail: Confidence in market plung

This bubble is starting to burst even before rates rise..this bubble especially in London is so big I can see 60-70% falls being headline news for many years

Posted by taffee @ 06:36 AM 18 Comments

Sunday, July 27, 2014

An extra 2.7 million to be housed from 2008 to 2014 and lower income per capita to pay for it

Wall St Journal: U.K. Recovery Flattered by Population Growth

After the IMF raised its U.K. growth forecasts to 3.2% on friday output per capita is still some way below 2008 levels, the U.K.’s performance by this metric does not compare well with most other developed economies. The UK has seen strong population growth adding another 2.7 million people to the books from 2008 to 2014. During this period U.K. GDP per capita measured in purchasing power standards adjusted for differences in price levels fell from 114% of the EU average to 106%, a decline of eight percentage points. For the crisis-stricken euro zone, the decline was from 109% to 108%, with Germany GDP per capita rising to 124% of the average from 116% with only Spain experiencing a similar relative decline in income per person to the UK.

Posted by enuii @ 11:06 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Only just realised?

Telegraph: Buy-to-let: creating bedsits for 20pc returns is just a response to the market

This is the baseline model for London. You can get 600 a month HB on a per room basis. Even a two bedroom house switches to three single occupancy (or double) rooms. That flat, you could fit a family in there, two kids sharing a room, but they wouldn't be able to match the rental costs. Truly this is a scandal because the government is maintaining a price level that they themselves arbitrarily decided, while at the same time switching provision from health care and education to keep the money flowing.

Posted by stillthinking @ 09:30 AM 4 Comments

Friday, July 25, 2014

Mwahahahaha - Crashy, Crashy time in London!

PropertyIndustryEye: This is more than seasonal, says Hometrack, as housing market growth slows

The pace of house price growth has slowed to the weakest in 18 months – and the London market is cooling “rapidly” and “dramatically”. Reporting this morning, Hometrack said that weakening demand and a slowing in property price inflation are “more than just a seasonal slowdown”. n London, Hometrack says that 11% of areas are now registering price falls, while only 12% of London postcodes registered price gains in July. The proportion of the asking price being achieved is also starting to decline nationally, as agents “find it hard to push prices ahead in the face of weaker demand”.

Posted by khards @ 02:41 PM 9 Comments

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Renting means paying 40% of income, compared to 20% for owners

Planet Property: Renting means paying 40% of income, compared to 20% for owners

Private renters fork out 40% of their income on rent, compared with owner occupiers whose mortgage payments average 20% of income according to government data ....

Posted by the planet @ 11:53 AM 0 Comments

Unreliable boyfriend?

Daily Wail: Rate rise could push Britain back into recession says Carney: Fears over effect of household debt

- The Canadian Bank of England governor warns that a rate rise is on the way - With no increase, the housing market could spiral out of control, he says - Rates have been kept at 0.5 per cent since the depths of the crisis in 2009

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:37 AM 11 Comments

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Help not to be repossessed

City A.M.: Interest rate hikes risk a household debt crisis if we don’t act now

A "help not to be repossessed" scheme? I wouldn't bet against it

Posted by mountain goat @ 11:18 PM 2 Comments

Spot the Difference? UK House Prices

Investmentimer.com: Spot the Difference? UK House Prices

Our "UK Housing Hints" penned just over a year ago, highlighted the yawning gap between the Rightmove asking price and the average UK house price, stating that the monthly Rightmove survey is very useful for gauging "sentiment" as opposed to any guidance as to where prices are going, particularly as it tends to "lag" the average house price index rather than "lead" it, when compared to the Halifax average house price index. At the time the gap stood at 33%, as shown below.

Posted by charlie aitken @ 10:16 PM 0 Comments

An interesting one for the Homeowenerists...

Telegraph: BBC drives biggest rise in house prices

What to say? It's absolutely fine for idle landowners to trousers billions from CrossRail, but what if the source of the unearned windfall is that enemy of capitalism, the BBC?

Posted by mombers @ 02:22 PM 3 Comments

Step by step guide to being a landlord

Commercial Trust: Step by step guide to being a landlord

Being a landlord is about much more than just buying a property and sticking some tenants in to pay the rent – it’s about providing someone with a home and making sure that home is safe and suitable for the person living there.

Posted by amelia @ 01:10 PM 1 Comments

Is this a sign of a crash?

MoneyWeek: What Foxtons' share price tells us about the London property market

Foxtons, the famously bullish London estate agent, has seen its share price fall to a 52-week low. That doesn't bode well for the capital's house prices.

Posted by andrew.williams @ 12:17 PM 0 Comments

BoE idiot extends UK boom in debt, and then claims economy is fixed.

Independent.co.uk: Paul Fisher: ‘The Bank delivered the recovery’

'Mr Fisher also argues that QE, along with the Bank’s Funding for Lending Scheme which subsidises credit to banks, were responsible for the recovery that finally kicked in last year.' ----- Yes, an a debt driven recovery at that. It's just a strategy to hide a bankrupt country.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:33 AM 2 Comments

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Councils fearful of upsetting investors refuse to penalise empty homes owners

BBC News: Power to penalise owners of empty homes goes unused

"The BBC's research shows there are currently 80,489 empty properties in the capital - and in total only 4,399 of them were subjected to the Empty Homes Premium." "The way to build homes is not to tax existing homes and stop people investing and buying in our city." - Daniel Astaire, cabinet member for housing, Westminster council [my emphasis].

Posted by landofconfusion @ 04:16 PM 6 Comments

Monday, July 21, 2014

Unique Balfour Place has 19 bedrooms, six kitchens and 17 bathrooms

Wetherell.co.uk: UNIQUE BALFOUR PLACE APARTMENT BUILDING FOR SALE

No.7 Balfour Place - an Arts & Crafts-style Mayfair mansion built in 1891 - was divided up into six apartments in the 1990s. But with the world's billionaires fighting over properties in the capital, it is likely to sell to a buyer who wants it for a family home. It has seven reception rooms of 'princely proportions', six kitchens, 17 bathrooms and a roof terrace. Estate agent Peter Wetherell said: "As apartments, it could be used as an investment to generate rental income. Reinstated into a single residence, it could create one of London's finest mega-mansions." No.7 Balfour Place is for sale freehold priced at £45 million.

Posted by tanya @ 12:24 PM 0 Comments

Can you still get a 100% mortgage?

TurnKey Mortgages: Does the 100% mortgage still exist?

100 percent mortgage deals do still exist, but these products are usually only available either to the lenders’ existing mortgage customers or to homebuyers with a guarantor willing to repay the mortgage debt if they cannot.

Posted by amelia @ 10:48 AM 0 Comments

Blame it on the boogie

IBT: Average UK House Price Drops During World Cup Distraction

The average asking price for a home in the UK dropped in July amid tighter lending rules for the mortgage market, the World Cup and the start of summer. Property website Rightmove said the average asking price dropped 0.8% over the month to £270,159, thought this was still 6.5% higher than in July 2013.

Posted by khards @ 10:44 AM 5 Comments

Prices start to fall

Telegraph: Houseprices start to fall

Could be the start of something bigger...buyers turning their backs.on london prices and and acceptance that wages in London simply haven't increased yet prices have soared I say again there was no shortage of supply in 2008/2009.....

Posted by taffee @ 06:34 AM 12 Comments

Sunday, July 20, 2014

To count or not to count - that is the question

Max Keiser: [KR629] Keiser Report: UK Job Market Stat Scam

We ask: “to count or not to count?” The self-employed in the UK are counted on the employment numbers but not on the income numbers, which the Bank of England complains gives them a distorted view of the economy. In the second half, Max interviews Mark McGowan, aka ‘The Artist Taxi Driver,’ about the UK employment numbers, Kate Middleton’s kitchen, the Queen’s new golden carriage and other austerity stories. Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/#1umPABxIRc62Zoll.99

Posted by khards @ 10:32 PM 0 Comments

House prices to fall

Telegraph: Warning: London house prices tipped to fall

Analysts at Deutsche Bank predict slowdown in housing growth as strong pound and lower global growth dampens foreign demand for property A major European investment bank has claimed that London house prices are slowing down, with potential for falls in future, as slowing global growth and a strengthening pound makes it more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase property in the capital. "Survey and anecdotal evidence point to the steam being taken out of the London market," said Deutsche Bank economist George Buckley. House prices in the capital have risen by 63pc against the post-crisis low they hit in 2009, compared to 17pc for the rest of the country.

Posted by amazon @ 10:51 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Collapsed pound

Zh: Goldman slams Abenomics

The report by Goldman Sachs essentially states that as Abe collapses the yen, the additional money flow unevenly, and the first to benefit and profit and exporters and foreigners, whose relative purchasing powers increase. These profits are realised as the money flows more completely around and an equilibrium forms. How then, can the UK, which collapsed the pound at an extreme level from 240 yen to 140, 40% of value gone, have avoided a similar iniquitous transfer of wealth ? The only people guaranteed to lose from the BoE response to the financial crisis were the population of the UK, which begs the question when does our loss of wealth become (even more) clearly visible? The answer being, I think, when the offsetting gov. borrowing splurge finishes.

Posted by stillthinking @ 12:10 PM 4 Comments

Um, what were you saying about a UK recovery?

Of course BTL is attractive - especially when you don't pay tax!

Mail: 900,000 landlords face buy-to-let tax probe: Second home owners face investigation as concern grows over undeclared profits

- Out of 1.4m landlords in the UK, only around 500,000 have registered - Banks warned they face tough scrutiny over the loans they dish out - Those who have not registered now face being quizzed and hit with bills - They could be charged for interest on the mortgage and upkeep

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:24 AM 8 Comments

Tesco the housebuilder?

Telegraph: Tesco to build 4,000 homes instead of supermarkets

Tesco is planning to build 4,000 new homes in the UK on land previously earmarked for new supermarkets. Britain’s biggest retailer has dramatically scaled back its expansion plans in the UK and now plans to use some of its vast landbank to build homes. Tesco has previously been criticised for hoarding land in the UK. It is estimated to own enough unused land to build 15,000 homes, roughly the size of the Coalition’s proposed garden city at Ebbsfleet,

Posted by mountain goat @ 09:29 AM 0 Comments

Btl under attack

Daily mail: 900,000 landlords face tax probe

Good.....the ridiculous situation that over leveraged landlords are able to buy property then rent it to productive wage earners on £30-50k because they can't afford a property cannot go on It's bad for the economy and so crazy beggars belief...no lack of supply imo just in the wrong hands

Posted by taffee @ 08:47 AM 0 Comments

Friday, July 18, 2014

Fed tapering means more, not less, 'investment' in property and other assets

Jack Rasmus: Is centre of global economic crisis shifting to emerging markets?

Claims QE liquidity stimulated financial markets but not the economies of advanced economies (AE) and that most of what wasn't hoarded as cash on AE banks' balance sheets was invested in emerging market economies (EMEs), both in their real economies and in their stock, bond and other securities markets. China's expansion thro' fiscal stimulus boosted demand for commodities, so 2010-13 was good for EMEs. Then the Fed announced 'tapering' of QE and the EME money flowed back into AEs, disrupting EME economies and weakening their currencies and, ironically, injecting more, not less, liquidity into AE economies, financial markets and other assets. Hence slowing growth in EMEs, some growth in AEs......and further inflation of property prices.

Posted by icarus @ 11:32 AM 6 Comments

Thursday, July 17, 2014

London real estate at an inflection point

Reuters: Analysis & Opinion

London slump a done deal?

Posted by paul dobbs @ 07:26 PM 0 Comments

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Taxpayer moneygrab

BBC News: Help to Buy scheme runs out of money in Scotland

The Scottish government's Help to Buy scheme has run out of money for this financial year - only three months after a new round started. All the funds allocated for the central area of Scotland has now been allocated. Anyone hoping to get a Help to Buy there before next April will now have to find the extra money elsewhere or let their house deal fall through. £140 million was allocated for the 2014/14 round of the scheme, which allows homebuyers to purchase new-build properties with as little as 5% deposit, with the Scottish government taking an equity stake of up to 20% of the purchase price.

Posted by little professor @ 08:53 PM 14 Comments

Wage growth close to zero

Daily telegraph: Daily Telegraph

Wage growth is now close to zero recent figures show. Inflation is running at 1.9% and house inflation in London at over 20%. I would have been interested if my 11 year old and friends had been set a maths question in their 11 plus whether they would have interpreted this as a positive outcome. There needs to be an anti GDP movement. GDP is no longer a measure of economic health either for individuals or companies.

Posted by britishblue @ 01:26 PM 13 Comments

Well, can't say I haven't heard this before...

Bloomberg News: Buy-to-Let Inflating Real Estate Seen Perilous: Mortgages

Shahram Kordestani, who owns seven U.K. rental homes, has advice for investors eager to join the swelling ranks of landlords: Do so at your peril.

Posted by peter rocker @ 11:18 AM 9 Comments

A bit too forward with their guidance, methinks

BBC News: UK unemployment falls to 2.12m

Once unemployment is down to 1.5m, or even 1.75m, if inflation is still above 1.5%, I don't see how they can get out of having a rate rise. That seems like it will almost certainly be before the end of the year. I suspect Carney's announcement today is related to this.

Posted by reticent @ 09:42 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Carney tells MP's that High House Prices make EVERYTHING unaffordable

Guardian: Bank of England governor warns of a bubble as UK house prices rise 10.5%

What the members on here have been saying for years........ Carney said that as house prices rise, individuals become increasingly overstretched financially in order to afford to buy a house, prompting them to cut spending on other things. "What we were trying to address was the indirect risk from indebtedness ... and the macroeconomic consequences of that. Because history shows British people pay their mortgages, there are very low default rates on mortgages. What happens if households are borrowing at high multiples is they have to economise on everything else in order to pay their mortgages.

Posted by daniel @ 03:07 PM 6 Comments

Interest Rates: no need to panic yet

London's property inflation tap shut off

Zerohedge: China's "Secret Money Laundering" Story Goes Mainstream; Is Promptly Censored

The biggest offshore buyer of luxury London property, that would be Chinese money laundering oligarchs and other member of the upper class, may be locked out of any future London housing purchases for a long, long time. The reason: an unexpected revelation by the power state CCTV channel revealed that contrary to popular disinformation, some of the largest Chinese banks - the PBOC included - were not only permitting but actively encouraging Chinese "money laundering" far above the $50,000/year statutory limit, the immediate result of which was soaring prices of the luxury segment of the London housing market.

Posted by khards @ 09:59 AM 1 Comments

Timber! Chinese and Russian rentiers run for the hills

PropertyIndustryEye: London’s turning, London’s turning: sales collapse by a quarter

The London market looks to be unravelling dramatically – and not just in its prime central postcodes – as it appears that buyers are staying away while sellers belatedly attempt to cash in. Sales across the whole of London are sharply down, while supply is up – by 32% according, yesterday, to the property website Home. It described the surge in new instructions as “startling”. It is in central London that agents are reporting the steepest falls in sales as buyers stay away. Richard Barber, partner at Knightsbridge-based W.A. Ellis, said that according to Lonres which tracks all property deals across central London, in June, transactions of houses were down 45% compared with June last year, and all transactions (ie, of flats as well as houses) down by 25%.

Posted by khards @ 09:49 AM 3 Comments

Deja Vu

BIS chief fears fresh Lehman from worldwide debt surge: Daily Telegraph

"The world economy is just as vulnerable to a financial crisis as it was in 2007, with the added danger that debt ratios are now far higher and emerging markets have been drawn into the fire as well, the Bank for International Settlements has warned." Does anyone disagree that more debt has been created in the world economy in the last 6 years and it was risky debt that created the crisis in the first place that led to to the great recession? If in agreement, then predicting the future really boils down into two camps: Camp 1, That feel that the solution to fight debt with debt is working and that's the new model for the future and it can go in indefinately. Camp 2. That believe that the easy money, bubble stoking has merely created an even bigger problem for the future.

Posted by britishblue @ 08:57 AM 2 Comments

Monday, July 14, 2014

Last throw of the dice?

Dailymail: New family loans

This reminds me of the 99 year mortgages in Japan just before the collapse of property prices a mortgage you could have for life! And pass on to your kids....end must be close now

Posted by taffee @ 09:22 AM 7 Comments

Friday, July 11, 2014

Further deflation alert (More cheap labour adds to collapsing crude oil prices)

Zero Hedge: UN Demands Europe "Open Its Doors" As Syrian Refugees Reach "Saturation Point"

And herein we find that the intentional destabilising of Syria, with ISIS being provided weapons by USA during the Benghazi incident, and funding to fight in Syria: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/14/us-syria-crisis-rebels-idUSBRE9BD08D20131214 , that the war is now being used by the UN (and EU) to commence busting of the border between Europe and Turkey. Expect a flow of immigrants now who will work for pennies on the pound, putting a continued lid on inflation so that further negative rates can be imposed to help the banksters. Also expect the crisis to be used to formally create an Arab Union that will merge with the EU. Of course, rather than destabilise the country we could have traded with them to prosperity, which breeds democracy, but we have psychopaths in "control".

Posted by libertas @ 08:47 PM 9 Comments

Deflation alert

Zero Hedge: WTI Crude Drops Below $101 - Lowest in 2 Months

The chart looks bearish, and a collapse in oil prices, due in part to US and EU contraction, combined with all that shale oil could create rampant deflation leading to NEGATIVE interest rates, despite the rhetoric of rate hikes. (USA has now overtaken Saudi Arabia in oil production). Recent CIA and MI5 funding of ISIS to invade Iraq and Syria to prop up oil prices appears to have failed, and market forces are taking control. Could a collapsing oil price also scupper support for Scottish Independence, when Scots realise that they are dependent on tax flows from the City of London?

Posted by libertas @ 08:36 PM 3 Comments

Why a BTL property's rental income is used by mortgage lenders

Commercial Trust: Why will my property's rental income affect how much I can borrow?

Buy to let mortgage lending criteria depends on several things, one of which is the rental income. The way lenders calculate this can vary, and it can be quite confusing for landlords.

Posted by amelia @ 05:18 PM 0 Comments

The forthcoming battle of the renters

Bloomburg: Britain’s 8 million renters are a key electoral battleground

The political tide will turn & we may even get Land Value Tax, according to Bloomberg anyway

Posted by pete green @ 03:18 PM 4 Comments

They were cheaper in the old days...

Bloomberg News: Daughter Doesn’t Buy Dad’s Cheering of U.S. Homeownership

David Stevens, chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association, has spent his career touting the merits of homeownership. One person still isn’t buying it: his daughter.

Posted by peter rocker @ 02:55 PM 0 Comments

Shock horror statistics may be wrong

Dailymail: Average salary may be £3500 less than thought

Makes current housing bubble look more and more ridiculous....I wonder when we all look back if we Will see just how lunatic the current situation is

Posted by taffee @ 12:57 PM 2 Comments

Could this lead to Eurozone QE?

Zero Hedge: Portugese screw job

If this kind of thing moves the ECB closer to QE and also further into negative rates, the Euro will fall in value, until the job is done, and confidence resumes. HOW can BOE raise rates, igniting the value of Sterling in that circumstance, with reported inflation at 1.5%? BOE does want to subdue the value of Sterling to protect exports.

Posted by libertas @ 12:40 PM 3 Comments

Some interesting analysis of the forthcoming House Price Crash fro the great man himself

Share The Rents - Fred Harrison: Return of the sub-prime

A measure of the ignorance of economists, and the politicians who rely on them, is the current frenzy over house prices in Britain. Is the economy locked into a housing bubble that will burst? That’s the question occupying the pundits, who fail to locate current events in their historical context.

Posted by pete green @ 12:31 PM 5 Comments

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Should be a doddle really

Torygraph: Taxes on holiday cottages would require 'Stasi-like police force' monitoring people's homes, Eric Pickles says

At least they've gotten rid of the 'second home subsidy' on council tax. Not really sure if anything can be done on this front - you could do a lot of data mining against council tax, Land Registry, PAYE records etc but can all be avoided by those who want to and any disputes would drag on for ages and cost more than this would raise. What I'd like to see is a spot of data mining of lettings ads to find the missing 700,000 - 900,000 missing landlords: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10410791/Landlord-tax-crackdown-gets-serious.html "Fewer than 500,000 taxpayers are registered with HMRC as owning properties other than their home. And yet other sources put the number of Britain’s growing army of landlords at between 1.2million and 1.4million."

Posted by mombers @ 12:54 PM 4 Comments

MoneyWeek article on how the government has overstepped the mark

MoneyWeek: The last bubble

The government's meddling in the housing market is going to end in disaster, says MoneyWeek's Bengt Saelensminde. The signs are everywhere.

Posted by andrew.williams @ 10:09 AM 0 Comments

London bubble is popping

Msn money: Surveyors expect london prices to fall

Finally expectations of price fall as the underlying trend is that demand is falling...the Headlines will now change no doubt from mania to despair..start of corrections in Ireland And Tokyo began like this

Posted by taffee @ 07:04 AM 6 Comments

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

The state of the UK (Oct 2013 - still relevant)

Youtube: The Fall of the United Kingdom - Coming Catastrophes in the UK Economy

'The state of the United Kingdom economy including government spending, budget deficits, interest on the debt, unfunded liabilities, public sector worker pensions, retirement savings, educational spending, health care costs, the death pathways, the myth of austerity, taxes, military spending, monetary policy, inflation, standard of living, income distribution, unemployment and mental health.' Published on 16 Oct 2013 - but still very pertinent.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:44 PM 15 Comments

Nothing to do with shoppers. This deflation is worldwide. Rates WILL NOT go up any time soon.

Telegraph: Savvy British shoppers and discount stores force down retail prices

Shop prices fell at the steepest rate for at least eight years last month as the popularity of discount stores among the middle classes helped to drive down the cost of clothing and consumer goods. The overall price of items at the till fell by 1.8 per cent compared with June last year, with the price of clothes down by 13.7 per cent year-on-year. The figures, compiled by the British Retail Consortium/Nielsen shop price index, show the fastest drop in prices since the trade association began compiling data in 2006. It was also the 14th month in a row in which shop prices fell. Although the price of food is still rising, it did so by only 0.6 per cent in June, the lowest level of inflation since the index began.

Posted by libertas @ 07:35 AM 19 Comments

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Crapitalism in operation

Walesonline: 'rental gazumping' as new figures show rental rates rising twice as fast as incomes

“It remains to be seen if anticipated central bank intervention in the mortgage market will stimulate further demand in the private rental sector at the expense of home ownership and whether this will generate positive response from would-be buy-to-let landlords.”

Posted by khards @ 07:52 AM 6 Comments

Monday, July 7, 2014

Watch oil to determine interest rates, and house prices.

Market Oracle: Bearish Reversal In Play For Crude Oil Price?

This analysis makes sense. With France back in recession, USA contracting and Europe looking shakey plus all that shale gas, could oil be ready for a bear market? If so, and if Britain maintains is growth trajectory, we could have a goldilocks economy of falling inflation, possibly even deflation, combined with economic growth. That situation would justify Carney's mortgage restrictions because they would ensure that the housing boom does not get out of hand when we see strong growth combined with falling interest rates. Couldn't happen? Sir, this is not the bond market of your parent's. Certainly those who fixed their mortgage may be looking sheepish if oil crashes & brings down consumer inflation. Modern hyperinflation is absorbed by new productive technology & free flow of cheap labour.

Posted by libertas @ 11:22 PM 19 Comments

Fergus Wilson offers a helping hand

Guardian: Britain's biggest buy-to-let landlords to sell entire portfolio of properties

Britain's biggest buy-to-let landlords, Fergus and Judith Wilson, are to withdraw from the property business, selling their entire portfolio of nearly 1,000 homes in the Ashford and Maidstone area in a deal likely to net the controversial duo at least £100m ... After quitting the property market, Wilson said he will offer to help the government on housing policy. "I might help sort out the Governments Housing Problem if they pay me enough money but I am not doing it for free! There is no magic wand to create overnight the number of houses required to overcome the Housing Crisis."

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:56 PM 5 Comments

Sunday, July 6, 2014

This crash will be a big one

Dailymail: Reality of london property boom

Quite amazing prices increases that can only be described as unsustainable surely..interesting to note they then went on to buy other overpriced property in london!..perhaps thinking they Bagged a bargain!

Posted by taffee @ 07:29 AM 27 Comments

Saturday, July 5, 2014

London ~ An environment to die for

BBC - London: Paramedics leaving London Ambulance service trebles

"The report said that affordable housing and transport costs were some of the issues which could affect whether staff choose to stay in the role". London Ambulance Service director of ops Jason Killens said: "The real issue for us here is the high cost of living and working in London. Not only for us but all public sector workers". (It was bad when I was contracting there - it's become almost impossible, now).ps: I liked the aircraft carrier...fabulous colour!

Posted by alan @ 02:49 PM 5 Comments

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Central bank stuns markets by cutting Repo rate by 50 basis points to 0.25pc

Telegraph: Sweden slashes rates to avert deflation after Riksbank mutiny

Sweden enters the global trend to deflation. Negative rates next. Totally unnecessary and foolish, because today's deflation is caused by technology and labour mobility and has the liberating factor of increasing the standard of living. Yes, it is no good for highly leveraged banks, governments and individuals, but should public policy discriminate on their behalf only?

Posted by libertas @ 06:09 PM 0 Comments

The start of retro "1987"

The Telegraph: London house prices rising at fastest pace in 27 years

Have just seen Sir Jon Cunliffe - Deputy Governor, Financial Stability; on the BBC insisting house price rises are not the fault of Financial Policy Committee FPC. So when the brown stuff hits the fan the FPC is not at fault as explained on the BBC.

Posted by sosoon @ 08:28 AM 10 Comments

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

On your marks, get set, go!!

Market Oracle: UK House Prices Soar to New All Time High, London Bubble, Nationwide Data

Nadeem is here predicting a 55% rise by 2018. Will London exceed that, and with his interest rate predictions being hawkish, will prices yet accelerate from here? It is interesting that London is pulling away at full steam whilst the rest of Britain is safely well below the 2007 peak, inflation adjusted, suggesting that the London "bubble" is due to influxes from Europe due to employment issues there, and from USA and elsewhere due to corporation tax being slashed.

Posted by libertas @ 06:44 PM 5 Comments

Why are so obsessed about the price of houses?

BBC 5 live Breakfast: Why are so obsessed about the price of houses?

Another radio show on house prices. Various callers. Very London centric, as expected. As usual, even though the fundamental plank of high house prices of the restricted supply was identified, the main reasons for high prices in London were missed. e.g. massive skew of jobs and capex projects in London [versus say, Grimsby], lapse tax laws on foreign investment [people, trusts, companies, convoluted off shore structures etc].

Posted by doomwatch @ 05:08 PM 3 Comments

Meanwhile in "we didn't see it coming" Australia

Theaustralian: Property prices through the roof with Sydney leading charge

The jump was largely driven by Sydney, where values saw the biggest rises since 2002, recording a 15.4 per cent increase. Melbourne rose 9.4 per cent. The outlook for other capitals was lower, with Melbourne and Brisbane increasing by only 8 per cent, Adelaide by 5 per cent, Hobart by 4 per cent, Canberra by 3 per cent and Darwin up by only 2 per cent to 2017. Last week, ratings agency Moody’s warned that Australia’s record-low interest rates could be generating a property bubble, blaming the RBA for “playing a dominant role in fuelling the housing market”, which was “likely to get caught up in a positive price feedback loop and could face a correction.”

Posted by khards @ 11:09 AM 10 Comments

Here we go again

Mail online: House prices soar by 11.8% in a year, the biggest increase for almost a decade as the average London home tops £400,000 Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2677627/House-prices-soar-11-8-year-biggest-increase-decade.html#ixzz36IgrKtfT Fo

Now they are saying measures that are being taking now will stop any future problems with excessive rises. What utter rubbish; this is total mismanagement on housing policy.

Posted by sosoon @ 10:15 AM 6 Comments

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Smoke and mirrors and Mark Carneys attempt to inflate the housing market and win a Tory election

Market Oracle : Nadeem Walayat: UK Interest Rates and House Prices Trend Forecast

The Bank of England's Wizard of Oz front man, Mark Carney has been busy during the past few weeks putting up ever thickening screens of smoke and mirrors in a thick cloud of confusion that surrounds the prospects for UK interest rates so as to appease all and mask the banks true intension. All Mark Carney is doing is playing a game of misdirection where whilst publically stating one thing of threatening to burst the bubble whilst privately the BoE acts to do the opposite by ensuring that the housing bull market remains well supported.

Posted by libertas @ 09:40 PM 8 Comments

Pressure on interest rates is down, not up

Telegraph: 'Super Isas' unleash £5bn pent up savings in the next month

Mark Carney's new mortgage "restrictions" that allow a DOUBLING of risky lending come one week before ISA allowances double, sending billions of pounds into bank accounts. With ISA rates plummeting and many ISA's being in long term accounts, my suspicion is that mortgage rates will tumble. Indeed, my mortgage broker is reporting that some banks have too much on deposit and are already reducing lending rates. Yes, British manufacturing is booming, but grocery inflation is at an 8 year low, tech and communication costs are plummeting, ECB is dabbling with negative rates with European household borrowing collapsing and USA contracted 2.9% in quarter 1. Mark Carney presided over 80% rise in Canadian house prices and he looks set to achieve that goal for the Tories here in Britain.

Posted by libertas @ 09:36 PM 6 Comments

Now how on earth do we manage fine with Business Rates + many parts of the world with property tax?

Moneyweek: The mansion tax: opening the door to corruption and distortion

Merryn is usually quite sensible about land taxes... The MT is not ideal but a step in the right direction and a lot less corrupt and distortionary than taxes on true private property like income and profits

Posted by mombers @ 02:04 PM 2 Comments

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