Wednesday, July 9, 2014

The state of the UK (Oct 2013 – still relevant)

The Fall of the United Kingdom - Coming Catastrophes in the UK Economy

'The state of the United Kingdom economy including government spending, budget deficits, interest on the debt, unfunded liabilities, public sector worker pensions, retirement savings, educational spending, health care costs, the death pathways, the myth of austerity, taxes, military spending, monetary policy, inflation, standard of living, income distribution, unemployment and mental health.' Published on 16 Oct 2013 - but still very pertinent.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:44 PM (4259 views)
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15 thoughts on “The state of the UK (Oct 2013 – still relevant)

  • While the mainstream media and government officials may paint the picture of economic growth and an impending financial recovery just around the corner, we’ll examine the hard numbers and empirical evidence instead of making blind assertions.

    With unsustainable yearly deficits, record levels of household debt, double digit cost of living increases, staggering amounts of unfunded liabilities, disastrous monetary policy and a health care system that has been described as being “on the brink of collapse,” – hopefully this information will help people brace themselves for the unfortunate reality that…

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  • Politicians 🙂

    The PM of Spain has announced that they have moved from recession to recovery. No mention of 54% youth unemployment.

    The trouble with pointing out these anomalies is that folk see you as a “glass half empty” person 🙁

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  • An equally bonkers display of self grandstanding at

    Do I detect a ”pooh-pooh’?

    The figures used in the are the governments own.

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  • mountain goat says:

    Wow that was a yawn. Nonsense about borrowing from our children. They grow up benefiting from the economy today. Offered a good education in a country with health-care and infrastructure.

    Question: is the economy functioning, are we building and producing things of value with minimal corruption and inefficiency? Answer yes. So why keep looking in the garbage expecting we are going to hell? That was 2008, the shit hit the fan and now we get on with it. Well apart from the tin hat crew.

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  • What is often forgotten about British debt is that 4% of GLOBAL forex reserves are in the currency. The pool of capital held in Sterling does therefore allow the British government to inflate away the national debt with a minor impact on the holders of Sterling. Infact, that has already been done. About half the national debt has been inflated away by stealth via BOE purchases, where the treasury sends cash to BOE who then buys treasuries, and on, and on, and on, with the accounting effect being akin to just retiring the debt.

    It is all an illusion.

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  • Question: is the economy functioning, are we building and producing things of value with minimal corruption and inefficiency? Answer yes.

    The correct answer is ”barely”. UK is most likely actually recession…..I mean, have you not noticed all the empty shops on your high street? What about the food banks – have you not noticed those? You can’t have missed the ”unexpected” drop in manufacturing output? What about your glorious wages, noticed anything strange?

    It’s on life support, maybe functioning, but only just….

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  • It depends where you are. Many parts of London are seeing cafe’s and shops springing up all over the place. But yes, in the shires, things have been very slow to pick up.

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  • mountain goat says:

    I just put my hand up and admit I don’t understand all this debt stuff, if I did house prices would be half of what they are now and the interest rate on national debt would be higher pricing in the expectation that it can’t be paid back. But this is not the case so clearly I don’t get it. Hence a shrug and attitude of just get on with it.

    Likewise the economy. Yes there are people struggling but also a lot of people do have work and the country isn’t riddled with graft like some. I don’t give a …. about the economic numbers which are massaged by officials to look good anyway.

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  • britishblue says:

    Libertas @7. I work across South West London and am out in the car all the time. What I am seeing is every available building whether it is an old garage, a pub, a gasworks or disused building being knocked down and ugly shoe box type flats being crammed in. Not quite the diversity of business that a balanced economy needs. I am also seeing an increase in businesses being asked to move as their premises are being developed for residential.

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  • britishblue, that trend was set in motion by recent changes in planning policy, allowing shops and various other things to be converted to residential. One factor that may be missed is the amount of home working now. Many businesses allow one to two days working from home per week. That could slash office demand by â…• eventually, but one does wonder sometimes where everybody will work, though I see massive office development going on in the city. Maybe we are moving towards emulating USA with their mega CBD. Maybe that is the obsession on new railways. Bring them in to work at the high rise in the centre of town.

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  • Likewise the economy. Yes there are people struggling but also a lot of people do have work and the country isn’t riddled with graft like some. I don’t give a …. about the economic numbers which are massaged by officials to look good anyway.

    What I am seeing isn’t pretty, and getting worse on a daily basis – of course you won’t see any of it in the news. All the papers go on about is how well the economy is doing.

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  • britishblue says:

    Libertas @10. there is also another little trend going on. whether it makes a difference to the London Market who can tell. With the increase in Home working and agile working, people are relocating. This week a client sold a 2 million house. He is moving to Spain. Just like your strategy for cross rail, he is situated close to an airport. He has worked out he can have a fantastic life commuting from Spain once a week, spend one night in the UK and then back. Being all wired up the location no longer matters. I have seen quite a few people move out of London with this strategy. So if there is less need for business in the capital, then arguably tonger term there is less need for housing.

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  • very risky strategy, britishblue. air fares change more capriciously than mortgage rates or rent. and peak oil is reality, after all it is a finite resource, the only thing we don’t know is whether it has already happened, or will happen in the future.

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  • very risky strategy, britishblue. air fares change more capriciously than mortgage rates or rent. and peak oil is reality, after all it is a finite resource, the only thing we don’t know is whether it has already happened, or will happen in the future.

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