May 2014 Archive

Friday, May 30, 2014

I think HPC isn't going to happen anytime soon (sorry)!

Telegraph: London house prices rise at fastest rate on record adding £588 a day

"Land Registry's monthly index shows monthly surge of 4.2pc in London prices while values across England and Wales remain 5pc below 2007 peak". A housing crash won't happen. If anything, debt problems are more likely, IMHO, forcing up IRs. That's why the glubbermint is trying to tweak the GDP figures so the Debt/GDP ratio doesn't look so awful. Maybe next month the ECB can be persuaded to take on QE. Just print it!

Posted by alan @ 01:58 PM 21 Comments

Dirty laundry

BBC: Londoners Priced Out

Retiring London planning official makes the case for cheaper homes.

Posted by yossarian @ 04:09 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, May 29, 2014

UK recovery continues, big bounce in service sector

Telegraph: Drugs and prostitution add £10bn a year to the British economy - ONS

ONS reveals impact of illegal drugs and prostitution on GDP to comply to new EU rules

Posted by hpwatcher @ 01:15 PM 12 Comments

Comments from MPC member prompt interest rate speculation

TurnKey Mortgages: MPC comments prompt rate rise speculation

Bank of England monetary policymaker Martin Weale has claimed that interest rates 'need to rise soon' if the increase is going to be gradual, prompting fresh speculation as to how soon the cost of borrowing will begin to rise.

Posted by ben @ 12:48 PM 4 Comments

Backtracking on pensions

Telegraph: Pensions reform loophole may cost Osborne £24bn

First signs that being able to pull out your pension is unworkable because of the resultant loss of tax revenue.

Posted by stillthinking @ 11:56 AM 1 Comments

Help to buy numbers are up

BBC News: Help to Buy: More than 7,000 homes sold under guarantee scheme

But it's still only 1.5% of the market. In the last announcement, HTB2 had only managed around 3000 completions and that was only a couple of months ago. The equity loan is still much more widely used, despite being much less talked about.

Posted by reticent @ 11:53 AM 3 Comments

Regressive planning policy halts new construction

BBC: Call for more help for buyers as house building slumps

The housing minister insisted the government was on track to deliver its target of 30,000 affordable homes by 2016 Builders have called for more help to boost the construction industry as the number of homes completed in Scotland fell for the sixth successive year. Industry body Homes for Scotland (HfS) said it showed the need to extend the shared equity scheme, Help to Buy. It came as government figures showed more than 7,000 affordable homes were built in the year to March 2014. Ministers said this put them ahead of their target of providing 30,000 new affordable homes by 2016.

Posted by khards @ 10:16 AM 2 Comments

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Coming to the boil

London Councils: School places shortage in London rockets to 118,000

"London has a staggering 52 per cent share of the national demand on secondary school places and 39 per cent of the national shortfall on primary school places." I post this just because I was just having a chat with somebody who works with children for local authorities in London. The expressed opinion was that the issues about shortages for schools in London is way more serious than is being reported, and that there are already (not commonly) children that simply don't have an available space i.e. are out of school, and that this number is set to grow rapidly. Teachers are not available because they cannot afford to live in the capital. The summary line was that the infrastructure is in the process of failing due to population growth.

Posted by stillthinking @ 11:21 PM 16 Comments

Similar problems other side of the channel

Reuters: Analysis - Housing snags tug back France's economy

Strangled by regulation and high prices, weak French housing investment is proving a major drag on the euro zone's second-biggest economy as it struggles to stage a convincing recovery. President Francois Hollande pledged more than a year ago to slash red tape holding back construction, hoping to bring within reach an oft-repeated promise to build 500,000 new homes a year. But property developers complain that government measures since then have even discouraged home building and say they simply cannot make houses at prices would-be buyers can afford.

Posted by mountain goat @ 05:26 PM 0 Comments

NIMBYS 'life blocking' people who wish to live in 26,750 homes near work, to save some grassland

Bristol Post: Green belt around Bristol under threat as planning inspector wants to see an extra 12,000 homes

THOUSANDS of new houses could be built on swathes of greenbelt surrounding Bristol after a planning inspector ruled an extra 12,000 homes must to be built in North Somerset within the next 12 years. A Government planning inspector has told North Somerset Council that 26,750 new homes need to be built within its boundaries by 2026 – a huge increase on the 14,000 originally suggested. The hike comes after Bristol University – which wants to build 1,000 homes on greenbelt land it owns near Long Ashton – successfully challenged the council's initial proposals in its planning blueprint.

Posted by khards @ 04:23 PM 1 Comments

I wonder if the Fat Controller wants to step in on this one?

Telegraph: Court threat for couple for putting up Wendy house in garden

Couple will have to pay almost £200 and could be prosecuted if they do not get retrospective planning permission for a 5ft Wendy house they put up for their children in garden of their Oxford home Angharad Holloway and her husband Craig put up the wooden play den earlier this month for daughters Eleanor, seven and Anwen, three. But Oxford city council has warned it will take enforcement action if the couple don't apply for retrospective planning permission. Mrs Holloway, a district nurse, said "This is ridiculous. It's only five-feet high at the apex. "It's not on stilts or anything, it's just a Wendy house. "It's in the front garden, which is the only area with grass. The back garden is smaller and completely covered by a patio. Perhaps there should be a room-to-live policy?

Posted by khards @ 04:14 PM 2 Comments

Slowing into negative territory?

Ft: London mortgage lending slows

The Council for Mortgage Lenders, whose members include all of the major banks and building societies, reported the number of new loans in the capital was down 13 per cent in the first three months of the year, with the value of loans down 10 per cent, compared with the final quarter of 2013. The typical first-time buyer in London borrowed 3.8 times their gross income in the first quarter of the year, up from 3.6 a year ago. The UK average stands at 3.4.

Posted by khards @ 01:22 PM 0 Comments

Get down, deeper and down, down down deeper and down

Independent: Mortgage approvals plummet to 8-month low

A tougher line on mortgages from high-street lenders saw the number of approvals for home loans fall sharply to an eight-month low in April, the British Bankers’ Association said yesterday. Banks made 42,173 loans for house purchase last month – nearly 3,000 fewer than March and the lowest since last August, the figures showed. Mortgage lending is now down from 45,045 in March, after falling for a third straight month. The latest data covers a period when much tighter criteria for lending came in through the Mortgage Market Review in an effort to cool a runaway property market.

Posted by khards @ 01:20 PM 0 Comments

Two-thirds of holiday homes are bought by cash buyers

Planet Property: Two-thirds of holiday homes are bought by cash buyers

Yep, you read that right .... Two-thirds of people buying a second home here or a place in the sun are doing so without the need for a mortgage

Posted by the planet @ 11:43 AM 0 Comments

Who would have thought restricting mortgage lending would lead to lower levels of inflation?

BBC: Nationwide warns on housing market 'correction'

Graham Beale , the chief executive of Nationwide, has said that the housing market could be facing a "natural correction" and warned that there is a "slowing down in the market place", particularly in London. Speaking to me this morning as the mutual announced its annual results, Mr Beale said that buyers were starting to baulk at the high prices being demanded by sellers. "At some point buyers just start saying no," he said. Announcing what he said were the best results the mutual had seen, Mr Beale's comments will increase the belief that the housing market could be about to turn. Last month Land Registry figures revealed a small decrease in house prices in March of 0.4%.

Posted by khards @ 09:09 AM 8 Comments

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Oh look Australia also has new rules on mortgage lending, what a surprise!

Businessinsider: APRA's New Rules On Mortgage Lending Are Targeting Risky Home Loans

There has been much debate in recent years about the need for macro prudential regulations in the Australian housing loan market as the growth in house prices scared many to believe this sector of the economy is becoming unstable. Such calls, which put specific limits on the type of lending that can be done by banks, have intensified since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand implemented its own macro prudential rules with temporary limits on high loan-to-valuation (LVR) lending, in order to foster greater financial stability. High LVR loans and other loans that are considered in some way “risky” are targeted because they generally have a higher probability of default (where the borrower gets into trouble and can’t pay the loan back) and loss to the bank if a default occurs.

Posted by khards @ 09:38 AM 5 Comments

Pop!

Citywire: RBS follows Lloyds in limiting London mortgage lending

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has followed Lloyds Banking Group by retreating from London mortgage lending amid fears of a housing bubble. LLoyds had more than halved its share of London mortgage lending, from 31% to 16% since 2008 according to the Financial Times, and RBS has cut its London mortgage lending from 16% in 2008 to 13%. Earlier in the month Lloyds tightened its lending requirements for high value property purchases in a bid to head off inflationary pressures caused by London’s booming housing market. The bank said it would not approve mortgages of over £500,000 where borrowers would be borrowing more than four times their annual income.

Posted by khards @ 09:30 AM 10 Comments

Monday, May 26, 2014

If the lidems returned to their roots - would they face annihilation or salvation in the polls?

Liberal Democratic Vioce: Miliband, Piketty and the Liberal response

"The changing times of Britain: 39% of people aged 24 to 35 own their home. This figure stood at 60% just thirteen years ago." "To renew our appeal, we must begin to champion an economy that works for all. This means making housing cheap and plentiful and so ensuing that the wealth of this nation goes to its workers and citizens, not to those that own its assets. We have at our disposal a set of policies far more radical, and robust, than Labour is prepared to offer."

Posted by pete green @ 03:00 PM 11 Comments

Trouble brewing?

Independent: Record number remortgage

We have been here before. At some point the IR rise will wipe out vast swathes of mortgage payers.

Posted by chrisch @ 09:35 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Which way goes the market?

BBC: Interest rate could settle at 3%

While Charlie Bean thinks rates will go up to 3%, Bernanke is telling private investors, willing to pay a fortune for an Investor Lunch, that rates will be low for the forseeable future. Interest rates are a key component of House Prices, along with availability of finance.

Posted by alan @ 01:58 PM 9 Comments

Developing a proper solution to the housing problem

Irish Independent: Our planners want to land us in trouble again by not listening

"The two main choices were a tax on the full value of the property (buildings and land) or a tax on the value of just the land. Those of us who argued for a land value tax did so precisely for this reason. The right kind of tax is not just a way of raising revenue, it is a way of delivering outcomes society wants." "We could scrap all the various developer contributions, levies and charges, we could also scrap industrial and commercial rates, stamp duty on properties and, of course, the local property tax and replace them all with a single unified land value tax that raised the same revenue and stimulated building where it is viable."

Posted by pete green @ 10:22 AM 0 Comments

Supply can never catch up with irrational demand?

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions: At the Top of an Overheating Housing Market – ‘Relaxing Planning’ can Make Matters Much Worse

Interesting blog on the idea that more supply will solve our housing problem: "So if the market is near its peak supply side measures such as relaxing planning can make matters worse. Planning is a medium-long term measures. By all means increase supply, as a long term well planned and rational way looking at a horizon of 10, 15, 20, 30 years through Garden Cities and other measures, not in a crazy rush which may simply pop the bubble and leave house builders like in 2009/10 with a massive burden of landbanks the debts of which they cannot service and which will drag down house-building levels to historically low levels."

Posted by pete green @ 10:08 AM 1 Comments

What we need to control isn't mortgage lending, or house prices, it's the cost of living somewhere

Yahoo Finance: Property is a Bubble We Need to Burst This is How

We have to stop kidding ourselves and stop house prices now, or we risk creating a generation that will never be able to afford to buy and struggle to even rent argues

Posted by kat @ 09:58 AM 0 Comments

The bubble is bursting

Daily mail: Bank set to burst property bubble

Looks like the penny is starting to drop...you cannot have a banking system.lending into a bubble of astronomical.proportions....I suggest though that prices will slump 50% in london and there Will be plenty of supply!flats will fall more as high maintenance put buyers off.

Posted by taffee @ 08:11 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, May 24, 2014

No house price bubble!

Telegraph: Land Securities boss denies house price bubble

London's rapidly escalating house prices do not represent a bubble, the chief executive of Britain’s biggest commercial property company, Land Securities has said.

Posted by marge simpson @ 11:38 PM 0 Comments

Unfortunately residential access still delayed

BBC: UK looks to boost fracking with new land access rules

Deafening silence on planning rules for homes again.

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:54 PM 3 Comments

House prices to earnings

Grauniad: The house prices-to-salaries map which shows why you may never get a mortgage

This is a great. A map of the UK showing house prices to earnings since 1999. Average house price in Kensington and Chelsea now 32.4 times earnings!

Posted by frizzers @ 11:37 AM 3 Comments

Land ownership reforms proposed

BBC news: Land ownership reforms proposed

There should be an upper limit on the amount of land held by private owners in Scotland, a government-commissioned study has recommended. The Land Reform Review Group also called for a big increase in community land ownership. And the group said the current tax system should be changed.

Posted by chi @ 07:30 AM 1 Comments

Friday, May 23, 2014

Government determined salaries

Government: Government immigrant worker list

Our charming government seems to think that should salaries go above 27,000-29,000 a year for jobs such as engineering geologist, hydrogeologist, geophysicist , clinical neurophysiologist , chemical engineer etc, then that indicates a shortage that must be fixed with immigration. The fact that these salaries are appallingly low in the UK for the skillsets required might be why so many people are deciding to vote UKIP. As we all know, when the government fixes prices lower, you inevitably end up with a shortage. Who is expected to borrow 40K for a degree in chemical engineering? You would have to be nuts to do it.

Posted by stillthinking @ 01:32 PM 9 Comments

London market has 'come right off'

Telegraph: London property boom loses fizz

Looks like the mania has already 'come right off' according to property source in the article...Anyone Buying in this market can look forward to 50-70% falls ala Hong Kong 1997..ireland and Tokyo 1992. Scarily over 25% of all mortgage money is in london add south east and possibly 50% of all mortgage Money tied into a bubble lending mania.

Posted by taffee @ 08:17 AM 4 Comments

It's a good one - Mitch Feierstein predicts catastrophic decline in London House prices

Max Keiser: [KR604] Keiser Report: Wrong Side of Apartheid Wall Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/05/kr604-keiser-report-wrong-side-of-apartheid-wall/#Ht1G4VeSz17g262d.99

We make an Eric Pickles sized analogy for bankers operating in the dark and, thus, committing more crimes… not fewer. We also discuss Ben Bernanke as the Pastor Ezekiel of central banking as he commands high fees to provide spiritual guidance to hedge fund managers. In the second half, Max interviews Mitch Feierstein about the Bank of England’s balance sheet, Italian yields, systemic risk and revolution in the UK!

Posted by khards @ 07:59 AM 1 Comments

Thursday, May 22, 2014

'Epic Generational Inequality' explained

Telegraph: 'Sorry - Baby Boomers Really Did have it All'

A baby-boomer comes clean, and sets out the facts about gross inter-generational inequality. "...for most of the "housing haves" the feel-good factor has been terrific: like owning a lottery ticket that pays out week after week. Those of us basking in the warm glow of rising house prices should be aware of two chilling facts. First, the theoretical wealth locked up in housing is economically unproductive. And second, it is the biggest single driver of rising inequality in Britain today..." But the fact that this appears - and in the Telegraph of all places - could mean the argument is changing. The message is getting through...

Posted by iain king @ 08:37 PM 0 Comments

The great recovery

Telegraph: Interest bill on UK's £1.27 trillion debt to hit £1bn a week

Interest on Government debt hits 1 billion a week. Government debt is up 7.5% on an annual basis and we are now showing strong economic growth. Surely, if debts are not paid down in a period of strong economic growth, they are only going to increase when the business cycle goes into reverse. So either subsequent governments will have to continually kick the can down the road and hope that it doesn't hit a brick wall or take it head on during a growth period. But to date any attempts at austerity have effected the have not's more than the haves. With rising debt and rising equality, and youth being left out of the wealth gains ( property) there could be a point in the next 20 years where a very left wing government comes into power and taxes some of the huge property wealth in the UK.

Posted by britishblue @ 05:27 PM 7 Comments

From the Crash Course series.

Peak Prosperity: Bubbles

Remember, this time it’s probably NOT different.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 03:47 PM 0 Comments

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

A plague on all your housing experts

Guardian: Housing crisis? No, just a very British sickness

Points here that many HPCers will agree with.

Posted by letthemfall @ 08:25 PM 12 Comments

CML: Mortgage lending up 35% yoy in APRIL

BBC: Mortgage lending leap fuels property inflation

UK mortgage lending in April was 36% higher than a year ago, a lenders' group says, as a major bank moves to cool the housing market in London. Gross lending was up 8% compared with March to an estimated total of £16.6bn, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). The figures come shortly after Lloyds Banking Group said it would limit lending for higher-value homes. The data includes the first week of implementation of new mortgage rules. Barclays also said that they will lend up to 5.5 times income in certain scenarios.

Posted by khards @ 06:18 PM 3 Comments

London in Wongaland

UK House prices a tale of two streets: The guardian

It is interesting to see just how stark house prices as in other parts of the country compared to London even with low interest rates. . It begs the question just where would London house prices be without this investment frenzy. The article highlights one 6th Floor flat in Brixton that sold for £270,000 a year ago that is now on the market for £449,000 and they expect it to go soon. If my maths are correct thats a 66% rise in a year. In another article properties in Croydon went up 5% in April and 6.8% in Haringay. Personally, i'd like to see this bubble go the whole distance rather than taper off and it looks like Carney will play ball with the interest rates and stoke it up until it explodes

Posted by britishblue @ 04:27 PM 8 Comments

And when people stop buying these toxic loans?

FT: UK house price boom boosts subprime ABS sales

Surging UK house prices have encouraged banks to offload sub-prime mortgages into ‘sliced and diced’ asset-backed securities, sending deal volumes to their highest in four years. The lower quality mortgages are being sold to investors as banks take advantage of rising property prices to spring-clean their balance sheets ahead of European regulators stress tests later this year. Shedding the mortgages, most of which date from before the financial crisis, frees up more money for additional mortgage lending even as fears of a potentially destabilising housing bubble grow. Bank of America Merrill Lynch and UniCredit have issued £718m in combined asset-backed securities consisting of so-called “non-conforming” UK mortgages over the past month.

Posted by khards @ 09:54 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Food inflation is 6.5% (don't worry about that)

Sky: Consumer Inflation Rises In April To 1.8%

"The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said it was a rise of 0.2% on the March figure. The rise was more than expected, up from its lowest level in more than four years".

Posted by alan @ 10:30 PM 0 Comments

It is a bubble then..lenders are worried

Reuters: Lloyds tightens lending in london criteria

Lloyds tightens lending criteria in london specifically...first real glimpse that lenders Are worried/ concerned about london prices

Posted by taffee @ 05:38 PM 9 Comments

You aren't going to win an election betting against 9 million people and their parents

Telegraph: House prices can keep rising, says David Cameron

Prime Minister downplays a warning by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, and says Help To Buy is not stoking a bubble. House prices could go on rising for four more years without causing concern, David Cameron suggested on Monday. Speaking after the Bank of England raised the prospect of interventionto cool the property market, the Prime Minister urged people to be “careful” over talk of a housing bubble. Surveys suggest that house prices in Britain are rising by more than 10 per cent a year, and by more than 40 per cent a year in parts of London. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, said on Sunday that the housing market posed the “biggest risk” to the economic recovery. He suggested he could intervene to stop banks lending large mortgages.

Posted by khards @ 05:07 PM 3 Comments

Finally getting the message

Telegraph: David Cameron ready to cut back Help to Buy scheme as house prices rise

David Cameron is prepared to pare back the Help to Buy scheme, as new figures show house prices surged by 17 per cent in the capital last year.

Posted by mountain goat @ 12:57 PM 4 Comments

So all this talk of the housing market is a red herring.

MoneyWeek: The Bank of England has no intention of pricking the housing bubble

John Stepek explains what’s really driving Britain's house price bubble, and what it means...

Posted by andrew.williams @ 10:31 AM 2 Comments

Contrarians bet against "sound advice"

Telegraph: Borrowers risk unaffordable payments when rates rise, warns think-tank

"Resolution Foundation urges borrowers to prepare now for rate rises by "locking-in" current low rates". The alternative view is that rates will not rise more than a cosmetic 0.25%. Place your bets :-)

Posted by alan @ 10:13 AM 6 Comments

Monday, May 19, 2014

The UK's or China's?

Zerohedge: Chart Of The Day: Whose Housing Bubble Is Bigger?

Last week we reported that the Chinese housing market, a carbon copy indicator of Chinese market liquidity, has completed a very mutated "head and shoulders" pattern in what increasingly many are seeing as a precursor to what may be - absent another massive liquidity push by the Chinese government - the infamous Chinese hard landing. On the other hand, one place which is not only enjoying an unprecedented upswing in home prices, but seems completely paralyzed and unable to do anything about it (As the BOE head commented over the weekend), is the UK, where according to real estate agency Rightmove, property prices rose by 8.9% annually in the most recent month of May, well above the 7.3% increase reported for April.

Posted by khards @ 08:45 PM 2 Comments

"vendors are increasing the asking price when they don't get viewings" (ROFL)

Yourmoney.com: 'It's time to sell': Estate agent calls top of the housing market

Estate agent Russell Bennett urges homeowners to sell now or risk missing out on huge gains. When a garage in Camberwell sells for £550,000 and one in 15 London homes are being sold for £1m or more, it's fair to say that we might be reaching the top of the UK housing market.

Posted by jack c @ 08:26 PM 9 Comments

Vince highlights the 'unusual' recovery we are having

Grauniad: Vince Cable: rising house prices destabilising economy

Vince Cable said: "Vince Cable has warned the economy is being destabilised by booming house prices and any sane person should worry about what is going to happen when interest rates rise as the economy returns to normal." 'In the next few years we are going to get back to high levels of household debt in relation to income, significantly higher in the UK than in almost any other country.'

Posted by pete green @ 03:50 PM 2 Comments

Solving the housing crisis

Bizezia Blog: How trees can solve our housing crisis

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney recently talked about how Canada builds more houses than we do in Britain. He said: “The issue around the housing market in the UK … is there are not sufficient (numbers of) houses (being) built.” Maybe we shouldn't stop incentives for people to buy homes, or make mortgages more expensive, or wave a stick above builders' heads and tell them to build more houses. We should take a leaf out of Canada's book, who use timber frames, as they make the whole process quicker. Perhaps Mark Carney, David Cameron, and Nick Clegg should find a way to promote the construction of flat pack homes. A flat pack or kit home can cost as much as 25% less than conventional homes. Not only that but they can be put up much more quickly than conventional homes.

Posted by marie greenan @ 03:24 PM 0 Comments

Fingers Crossed: will this allow the Govt to cheer a fall?

Guardian: Cable: Rising house prices destabilising economy

Cable agrees that extortionate house prices have terrible economic and social consequences. But, curiously, is he preparing the ground for the establishment to cheer a house price correction, the way 'most people' used to cheer double-digit price rises last decade? And is the need for fall now agreed enough that all political parties could be asked to publish house building targets in their manifestos, so they can out-bid each other at election time ('We'll build more than them...'), and we can hold them to their promises? Generation Rent has an opportunity here, not to be wasted...

Posted by smiley @ 01:38 PM 0 Comments

There is no bubble, there is no bubble, there is no bubble!

Guardian: House prices in London have risen £80,000 since the beginning of the year

London asking prices up by £4500 a week this year Annual asking prices up 43% in Tower Hamlets with 65% being sold to cash buyers We have no bubble, i repeat no bubble. As some learned gentlemen on this site say, everyone wants to live in London. I suggest they spend a week in a guest house or a hotel in central Tower Hamlets and see if they still believe this to be true.

Posted by britishblue @ 12:52 PM 2 Comments

House fever - brought to you c/o Cameron and Osborne 'The boys from Eton'

Telegraph: House prices jump £10,000 in five weeks as Bank threatens to cap mortgages

The average [ASKING!] property is now on sale at a new record high of £272,003.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:45 AM 7 Comments

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Yes housing is the biggest problem in the UK economy

Torygraph: Bank of England Governor issues warning over housing inflation

Can Carney see the disaster looming & is hedging a House Price Crash. There is much more we can do to make houses cheerer than just build more.

Posted by pete green @ 10:06 AM 10 Comments

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Why UK GDP is set to improve

Financial Times: Data shake-up turns UK into nation of savers

For the first time in 15 years, the Office for National Statistics is preparing to rip up the way it measures Britain’s economy, with the new techniques showing a huge increase in the size of the economy, a higher level of public debt and a much increased savings ratio. There is also a good chance that the statisticians will significantly revise up growth recorded in the economy in 2012 and last year.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:01 PM 5 Comments

Buyers throwing their money away

Mail: Now families desperate to move to a bigger home face a £4,000 'finder's fee''

Families desperate to move to a bigger home are being forced to stump up a £4,000 ‘finder’s fee’ to estate agents, it has emerged....Soaring house prices have led to a surge in would-be buyers being asked to make their best offer on paper in secret. But estate agents are exploiting the demand by making the winning bidders pay an extra fee of 2 per cent of the property sale price.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:07 AM 6 Comments

Friday, May 16, 2014

What happened to ben?

FT: Skipton raises mortgage rates

The UK’s fourth-largest building society is raising the interest rates offered on a range of its mortgages, after reporting “unprecedented demand” from borrowers. Skipton Building Society is increasing rates on several of its two-year and three-year mortgages by 0.5 percentage points, and by up to 0.2 percentage points on five-year fixed mortgages. Of the new rates – which will be effective from May 19 – the highest increase has been applied to Skipton’s two-year fixed 80 per cent loan-to-value mortgage rates, which are set to increase by 0.71 percentage points.

Posted by khards @ 11:09 PM 1 Comments

Non-recourse mortgages coming soon?

Citywire: EU mortgage plan could push up cost of borrowing

A change in mortgage rules being debated by the European Commission to allow borrowers to walk away from a property if they can’t repay the loan could push up the cost of borrowing for everyone. Although the UK mortgage market has already been subject to stricter lending rules under the recently implemented ‘mortgage market review’ (MMR) – which has introduced tougher affordability criteria for home loans – the commission’s ‘mortgage directive’ plans to change the rules again. At the heart of the directive is the commission’s concerns about over-indebtedness in Europe and how it should be tackled. In order to find a solution for those unable to repay loans, the commission has put forward the idea of ‘non-recourse loans’.

Posted by khards @ 11:05 PM 6 Comments

Lemmings

Independent: Brutally honest' advert describes east London flat as 'not very nice' - but attracts lots of interest

The property in question, a one bedroomed flat on Hoxton Street, is currently being advertised at £997 per month by Harvey Residential, who say it has received a lot of interest since it was first listed on the website on 8 May.

Posted by happy mondays @ 05:40 PM 0 Comments

Undercover Economist (Tim Harford): Bubble-omics

Tim Harford Blog: 'When a Man is Tired of London House Prices...'

The Undercover Economist analyses the property market, and calls it one-third over-valued. Interesting counter-points to the standard 'property can only rise' mantras.

Posted by iain king @ 12:34 PM 0 Comments

Rentiers vote to keep letting agent fees

SKY: Coalition Votes Against Letting Agent Fee Ban

Labour's attempt to end a "fundamentally anti-competitive corporate practice" is defeated in a House of Commons vote. MPs have defeated an amendment to the Consumer Rights Bill that would have banned letting agents from charging fees to tenants. Labour's amendment was defeated by a majority of 53, 281 to 228, with all but three Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs present voting against it. The coalition Government had earlier outlined its own amendment, which it says would see letting agents face fines if they fail to publish full details of fees charged to tenants. "It is a fundamentally anti-competitive corporate practice. We want to do something about it."

Posted by khards @ 12:14 PM 0 Comments

Rents continue to fall + Property is my pension folly.

Mortgage Introducer: Rents rising at half inflation rate

David Brown, commercial director of LSL Property Services warned against proposed reforms to the rental sector, such as a ban on tenant fees. He said: “Rents would be higher.", “Furthermore, if tenants have no advance financial commitment then there is nothing to stop them pursuing multiple tenancies at the same time and just taking the first one that completes, dropping the others.”. He explained that a ban could also unfairly punish landlords. “Many only have one property used as their pension. If tenants drop out at the last moment, this could mean hardship.”

Posted by khards @ 12:02 PM 3 Comments

People give up on other forms of saving.

Telegraph: Lending to landlords up 69pc in a year

People are giving up on other forms of savings because of the losses in real terms. So how can the appalling debts of government be inflated away? So maybe coming up to that point where it turns out that putting the losses on the savers doesn't work. Personally, I don't think that interest rates will be, as they have been in the past, discouraging to borrowing, because I don't think anybody has any faith that the savings rate (which is also taxed) will ever match inflation. The opposite is true, as interest rate rises and house prices reduce, I think -more- people will switch to property investments. Low interest rates freeze the market because they reduce the requirement to sell, higher interest rates free it.

Posted by stillthinking @ 09:33 AM 3 Comments

Solve the housing bubble tomorrow - but tomorrow never comes

Bloomberg: Mark Carney has given himself one month to decide on what to do about the hottest topic in the U.K. economy: the housing boom.

"Mark Carney has given himself one month to decide on what to do about the hottest topic in the U.K. economy: the housing boom. Batting away questions on a possible property bubble this week, the Bank of England governor pushed the onus for cooling the market onto his financial-stability officials. "

Posted by pete green @ 09:18 AM 2 Comments

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Ho ho ho

The Daily Mash: Bank of England doesn’t know how to raise interest rates

THE governor of the Bank of England has admitted they could not raise interest rates even if they wanted to.

Posted by tick tock @ 07:00 PM 3 Comments

Its a one way bet!

Citywire: EU mortgage plan could push up cost of borrowing

A change in mortgage rules being debated by the European Commission to allow borrowers to walk away from a property if they can’t repay the loan could push up the cost of borrowing for everyone.

Posted by pedro2706 @ 05:44 PM 0 Comments

How desperate things are in the US - QE by the backdoor

Zerohedge.com: Russia Dumps 20% Of Its Treasury Holdings As Mystery "Belgium" Buyer Adds Another Whopping $40 Billion

'Russia indeed dumped a record $26 billion, or some 20% of all of its holdings, bringing its post-March total to just over $100 billion - the lowest since the Lehman crisis.... "Belgium" bought another $40 billion'

Posted by hpwatcher @ 03:41 PM 5 Comments

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Our new normal

Reuters: UK unemployment falls to lowest in more than five years

I'm surprised nobody posted this earlier. However some here may feel about it, HPC seems pretty unlikely when unemployment has fallen to a five year record low. I also listened to Carney on the news earlier today (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/interest-rates/10830376/Bank-interest-rates-wont-be-used-to-cool-housing-market.html) Mark Carney indicates Bank won't use interest rates to cool housing market, as he says economy is 'heading back to normal.' Does anybody know what normal is these days?

Posted by quiet guy @ 07:48 PM 14 Comments

The Irish copy Help To Buy to boot builders profits

Irish Independent: Easy mortgages are on the way

The plan will mimic similar schemes operated in Canada, Australia and Britain. But it won't be an exact copy of the British 'Help to Buy' scheme which was available for all houses – new and previously occupied – worth up to €800,000 and merely inflated the market. This scheme would be restricted to first-time buyers of new houses, with a cap on the price of the house. Only buyers of average two- or three-bedroom new houses would benefit. "It's fair to say that we've now ruled out a UK-style 'Help to Buy' scheme because of the potential impact on house-price inflation,"

Posted by khards @ 01:08 PM 2 Comments

"combination of soaring house prices/falling real wages is making home ownership an ever more...."

Sky News: Property Boom Leaves Many Unable To Buy

The proportion of English and Welsh homes selling for over £1m has more than doubled during the Great Recession, in the latest evidence of the property market boom. In London a record 7% of all home sales listed by the Land Registry in the year to March were for £1m or more - a sharp increase from the 3% level when Britain slid into recession in 2008. Overall, the number of homes sold for £1m or more over the past year has surpassed 10,000 for the first time - with just over 11,000 £1m sales in the year to March.

Posted by jack c @ 09:36 AM 4 Comments

Thud!

Daily Mail: New loan checks cause 20% fall in mortgages: More borrowers being rejected since stricter vetting introduced

Mortgage approvals have fallen by a fifth since tougher checks were introduced less than three weeks ago, according to one of the UK’s biggest lenders. The startling figure - disclosed to the Mail - is the first sign that more borrowers are being rejected for home loans since the new rules were enforced on April 26. There are growing fears that mortgages will soon become more expensive and harder to qualify for. The Bank of England is today expected to indicate interest rates are likely to rise within the next 12 months – possibly before the end of the year. The Financial Ombudsman Service will today warn record numbers of people are struggling with their mortgage. Nearly 13,700 people contacted the service last year for help with their mortgage.

Posted by khards @ 09:18 AM 8 Comments

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

China House Price Crash?

Torygraph: China reverts to credit as property slump threatens to drag down economy

"China's authorities are becoming increasingly nervous as the country’s property market flirts with full-blown bust" Will the Chinese zombies start walking the earth and coming our way?

Posted by pete green @ 11:48 PM 1 Comments

Three points made

Torygraph: Enough is enough we need higher rates now

1) agricultural land is tax free for inheritance 2) agricultural land is worth 1/1000 of land with planning permission 3) more planning permission needs to be granted. In fact I found the argument fairly persuasive, particularly if you are too broke for the usual sterling escape route of a mortgage. If people start going crazy for agri land as well then certainly we will need interest rate rises. You could be a one family gypsy group and live there in a large trailer, with the twist that you own the place.

Posted by stillthinking @ 05:10 PM 7 Comments

And there is more? Global conspiracy? Global housing shortage?

Nzherald: Annual house price inflation in Auckland remained very stable at 14 to 15 per cent

Expectations that house prices have further to rise remain high in ASB's quarterly survey of housing market sentiment. Tuffley said that index suggested annual house price inflation peaked at just over 10 per cent in the December quarter last year. Looking at the three-month moving average, annual house price inflation in Auckland remained very stable at 14 to 15 per cent, he said. Although rates were rising "you have still got fairly sharp population growth and the supply side having to do a lot of work in terms of building".

Posted by khards @ 04:02 PM 0 Comments

Now do you see it?

Irish Times: Dublin house prices up nearly 15% in 12 months

Houses prices across the State were up 7.8 per cent in the 12 months to the end of March, the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show. Although prices in Dublin were static last month, year-on-year the market in the capital saw a bounce of 14.3 per cent. The year-on-year 7.8 per cent increase in residential property nationwide compares with an increase of 8.1 per cent recorded in February and a decrease of 3 per cent in the 12 months to March 2013. Broken down by category, house prices rose by 0.3 per cent in the month and were 14.3 per cent higher compared to a year earlier.

Posted by khards @ 03:55 PM 0 Comments

See the trend?

CBC: Toronto house price jumps 10% in April

The average price of a Toronto home climbed by 10.1 per cent in April 2014 to $577,898, with both condominium and detached homes sales springing back from low levels a year ago. There was an 85 per cent increase in numbers of new condominiums sold compared to last year, according to real estate market research firm Urbanation, and a 1.8 per cent increase in sales of all real estate. But homeowners have not rushed to list their properties after the slow sales in March and April. The Toronto Real Estate Board reports a shortage of detached, semi-detached and townhouse properties in Toronto and surrounding regions is constraining sales.

Posted by khards @ 03:53 PM 0 Comments

Monday, May 12, 2014

Another one bites the dust

Moneymarketing: Woolwich ramps up B2L affordability test

From 19 May, the lender will use a rate of 5.79 per cent to assess affordability, as opposed to the mortgage rate itself. Presently, Woolwich has no products with a rate lower than the new affordability rate. The affordability rate will apply to all of its buy-to-let mortgages. For example, under the existing system a £100,000 loan on a 3.29 per cent fixed rate would require a rental income of £395 a month to cover the mortgage (£100,000 x by 125 per cent x 3.29 per cent / 12). Under the new assessment landlords would be required to secure £603 per month in rental income. A Woolwich spokesman says the move was taken to ensure landlords can afford their mortgages, especially when base rate increases.

Posted by khards @ 05:39 PM 4 Comments

FLS and HTB money running out?

Telegraph: Banks use intrusive questions to slash mortgage offers

"Banks are using deeply intrusive questioning to cut tens of thousands of pounds off the mortgages offered to home buyers, it has emerged. The questions range from how much is spent on pet food to membership of golf clubs or, according to one report, whether customers frequently eat steak. The intrusions are part of new affordability checks, ordered by regulators, to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. The Telegraph has anecdotal evidence that lenders are using the rules to downgrade loan offers. This could block people from home ownership even if their income and outgoings are stable – and comes just as house prices rise."

Posted by hpwatcher @ 03:17 PM 11 Comments

Not to worry, cash buyers will save the market.

Mortgagesolutions: Barclays hikes buy-to-let stress test rate

12 May 2014 | 12:03 - Barclays will begin stress testing buy-to-let mortgages against what in the vast majority of cases will be a higher rate of 5.79% from next week.Previously the lender tested buy-to-let applicants against 125% of pay rate but will change this to 125% of the 5.79% nominal rate. The affordability rate will apply to all buy-to-let mortgage cases, regardless of the actual product rate, and will come into effect on Monday 19 May. Barclays said this would ‘ensure consistency across all of our products'. Further advances will also be assessed using the 5.79% and will be applied to the total borrowing, including any increase in lending.

Posted by khards @ 01:15 PM 3 Comments

Crashy Crashy..

Estate Agent Today: MMR slashes home lending

The Mortgage Market Review (MMR) has hit house purchase lending, which fell for the third consecutive month in April. Home lending has now fallen 17% in three months, according to new figures from e.surv, which said the MMR is largely to blame. House purchase approvals dropped 6% between March and April to 63,170. That means there were more than 13,000 fewer home loans in April than in January, when 76,251 loans were approved. House purchase approvals are still 15.3% higher than 12 months ago, but recent monthly falls are stalling the market recovery. Borrowers must now prove that they can withstand potential interest rate rises up to 7%.

Posted by khards @ 10:00 AM 11 Comments

The next in a long line of financial crisis?

Zerohedge.com: Japan Debt Update: ¥1,020,000,000,000,000.00

Japan’s national debt totaled a record-high ¥1.02 quadrillion as of the end of March, up ¥33.36 trillion from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said. The central government debt, which increased ¥7.01 trillion from the end of December last year, kept rising mainly due to ballooning social security costs in line with the aging of the population. The balance of government bonds, financing bills and other borrowing crossed the ¥1 quadrillion line for the first time ever at the end of June 2013.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:21 AM 9 Comments

Sunday, May 11, 2014

This is deflationary. Will cause rates to fall.

Sunday Times: Borrowers left in chaos by mortgage crackdown : Lenders grappling with new affordability rules are preventing sales from going through

MMR will achieve the opposite of what it aims to achieve, like most government intervention. By forcing lenders to consider interest rate rises, less lending will occur, putting downward pressure on prices (deflationary forces) causing interest rates to plunge for those who qualify for loans. However, this could be great for businesses, because less lending on mortgages means more cash available for business lending. Could help to buy have been a tool to cushion the blow of implementing these Basel requirements? Also, note, having children will vastly reduce your ability to borrow. Thus, the housing "crisis" was engineered on purpose to allow government to control who can borrow what and live where. They had to create a crisis to justify this totalitarian control over mortgages.

Posted by libertas @ 02:46 PM 15 Comments

House prices up

Independent: House prices up £1,200 in April

still rising...but for how long?

Posted by jasonpistol @ 01:25 PM 0 Comments

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Impact of interest rate rises

Daily Telegraph: Why millions are more exposed to mortgage interest rate rises

Interesting analsyis demonstrating how many mortgage holders are exposed to rises in interest rates and how the makeup of this has changed in the last few years so many more will feel the immediate effect when and if it happens.

Posted by britishblue @ 04:54 PM 29 Comments

Fudged and not by accident - there is an election to win

Independent.co.uk: Garbage in, garbage out: our jobs figures are not working any more

"It is very hard to work out what is going on in the UK labour market because the quality of the statistics is basically junk – garbage in, garbage out describes the lack of quality of the data well. I really am not exaggerating. Every other major country, including the euro area as a whole, is able to produce timely estimates, but not the UK.....The UK stands out as the only country out of 31 that has no data available for February, March or April 2014."

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:43 AM 1 Comments

Well from the qoutes the bankers didnt!

Business insider: Did you see the hongkong crash 1997 coming

The comments from.expert bank analysts are simply priceless and can be compared to the 'experts' analysis presently....nothing else to say

Posted by taffee @ 09:33 AM 12 Comments

Friday, May 9, 2014

More great recovery news!

McAlister & Co: Corporate Liquidations Rise in Q1

Within the first quarter of 2014 and with all the news that the economy is on the turn, liquidations in England and Wales rose by 53.1% compared to Q4 2013.

Posted by novice pete @ 08:38 PM 5 Comments

New figures from Halifax signal the start of a slowdown in London property prices

Telegraph: The London housing market is starting to cool, say experts

"Affordability constraints are starting to bite,” Mr Cook continued. “And total five-year house price growth will be capped by earnings growth, given the likelihood of interest rate rises that will erode mortgage affordability." Personally, I disagree with that angle. I think that mortgage approvals have dropped as MMR requirements have been slowly introduced, but as deflation continues, interest rates move to negative and we see the tax man having direct access to bank accounts, if job creation keeps rising and immigration continues to soar, prices could yet rise significantly. Remember, that prices can fall around 2-3% a year and you will merely tread water rather than actually lose money relative to throwing money away on renting.

Posted by libertas @ 04:25 PM 14 Comments

This is negative interest rates

Telegraph: David Cameron: Taxes will rise unless we can raid bank accounts

Negative interest rates could be felt in a number of ways, withdrawing QE, taking money from bank accounts or more banks going bust and taxes rising to fund that liability. For me, this is a sign that the housing boom has only just begin because all these things are deflationary. Note, I have had numerous spurious HMRC fines that were eventually reduced to zero. Imagine appealing a fine when the money had already been taken?! Note, if government set the precedent of grabbing cash without consent, they will not stop there. Eventually, private bailiffs will be able to raid your account for a late telephone bill, even if they got the bill wrong. No kidding, this is a licence to steal. This is the equivalent of negative interest rates for those affected.

Posted by libertas @ 04:14 PM 7 Comments

"there is no recovery going on but a massive asset price bubble being inflated"

FE Trustnet: Iain Stewart: This market could be the biggest bubble of all time

The manager of the £9bn Newton Real Return fund says that while there is a distinct note of optimism creeping into economic forecasts, the recovery is ultimately doomed to fail....................................

Posted by jack c @ 12:43 PM 7 Comments

How to apply for a mortgage post-MMR

TurnKey Mortgages: How to apply for a mortgage under the new mortgage rules

Mortgage Market Review - A look at how the new mortgage rules that came into force on 26 April affect the mortgage advice process, and what borrowers can expect from a mortgage application.

Posted by ben @ 09:57 AM 0 Comments

Britain's serious debt burden

Moneyweek: How to survive the final phase of Britain's debt crisis

"An estimated £530 billion to be added to the national debt by 2015 – Office for Budget Responsibility estimates national debt will be £1,365bn by 2015 and Office of National Statistics shows Public Sector Net Debt was £833.5bn at end 2011. Therefore £1,365bn – £833.5bn = £531.5bn increase"

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:03 AM 3 Comments

Thursday, May 8, 2014

What was that about a recovery?

Even more breaking good news.

Da Beeeeeeebbc: Labour to call Commons vote on letting agent fee ban

Labour are to call a vote in the Commons in an attempt to ban letting agents from charging fees to tenants. Party leader Ed Miliband said people who buy a house are not charged fees by agents, but people who rent are. He said Labour was "determined to stand up for generation rent" and deliver an "immediate financial benefit" to people who do rent. The Association of Residential Letting Agents said it was "deeply concerned" by Labour's proposals. The challenge we have today is an unregulated market and a worrying lack of supply” Labour will table its proposal as an amendment to the Consumer Rights Bill in the Commons on Tuesday. Under the party's plans estate agents would no longer be able to charge a letting fee for renting out properties.

Posted by khards @ 01:11 PM 13 Comments

Housing will save us....

Mail: BREAKING NEWS: Barclays axes 7,000 investment bankers as it cuts 19,000 jobs in massive shake-up

Barclays today took the axe to its controversial investment banking division, saying it would sack thousands of highly-paid bankers. A total of 7,000 jobs will go in its investment division, which has most of its staff in London and New York.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:01 AM 47 Comments

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Another Jenga brick removed from the housing market

Mortgage Strategy Magazine: A perfect storm is brewing in the wake of the MMR

Speaking to brokers this week, many are deeply concerned about the perfect storm gathering across the market.

Posted by hechnical titch @ 09:33 PM 0 Comments

For all those who haven't given up!

Daily Mail: Councils must find land for building your own home: Planning minister to unveil new 'Right to Build' scheme

Right to Build scheme will allow locals to buy vacant land after three years. Local authority will have to meet demand and supply water and energy. Radical plans by to boost levels of homebuilding. Councils will have to make land available for people to their build their own homes, the Conservatives to announce this week. Controversial planning minister Nick Boles will unveil a new ‘Right to Build’ scheme to allow people who have lived in a local for area for three years to buy vacant land. The local authority would have to meet their demand, and supply water, energy and other services to the property, under the radical plan to boost levels of homebuilding. He said the policy would be approved before the next election, and is a key part of a second Conservative government

Posted by khards @ 04:28 PM 8 Comments

The Bubble: it's not over till it's over!

Guardian: Leeds building society offering 0% mortgages

"Credit card-style introductory offers for Help to Buy mortgages offered by lender in tie-up with Barratt builders". A thread is already going on the discussion pages

Posted by alan @ 12:29 PM 13 Comments

Again here

Telegraph: Bank must burst housing bubble

The problem is that housing is reacting more to a view on sterling rather than anything else, and the credit policies such as mandatory deposits won't affect people who borrow in other countries. They only affect UK originated loans. We are in the EU as well so we can borrow anywhere. Plus, if there is ever a correction to the extent that prices fall in nominal terms, all building will stop, nobody will develop on falling prices. So this would seem to be the corner the powers that be have painted themselves in. There is no way that rates will go up so it looks like race day is getting closer and closer. Would they devalue sterling again?!?

Posted by stillthinking @ 10:43 AM 0 Comments

Bank getting worried

Moneywise: Bank of England warns of housing crash

Don't worry. The money from selling Astra Zeneca will sustain the boom for a few more weeks.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 07:28 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Golf courses 1 Housing 0

The Guardian: Surrey has more land for golf course than Homes

The title says it all! I am sure there are strong arguments why golf course are crucial. where I live near Richmond Park there are two: one on each side of the park..

Posted by britishblue @ 06:41 PM 5 Comments

Think tank has no idea what's wrong with UK housing market

Guardian: OECD warns on UK house prices

No one in the press seems to have realised that HTB2 is not being used by ANYBODY. HTB2 aimed to get the housing market moving again. It succeeded, but not because everyone flocked to take out government-subsidised 95% mortgages. It succeeded because everyone else mistakenly expected that to happen and tried to beat the rush, creating the bubble they were all expecting in the process. Less than 1700 people had used HTB2 within the first 6 months. That's less than 1% of the market. That's barely more than 1% of FTBs (25k/month according to the CML). I highly doubt removing HTB2 would make any difference anymore. The psychological damage had been done before it was even implemented.

Posted by reticent @ 06:04 PM 8 Comments

With 37 of Liebour's target seats in areas where most people rent are rent controls comming?

YouGov: Majority support for rent controls

56% say the government should introduce rent controls – and the majority say governments should be more willing to intervene in markets generally

Posted by landofconfusion @ 12:55 PM 6 Comments

Monday, May 5, 2014

It's "Official". It must be true!

Reuters: 'Bank of Mum and Dad' supports first-time British homebuyers - poll

"Almost two-thirds of first-time British homebuyers are turning to their parents for financial help, a survey said on Monday, underscoring concerns about the booming housing market".

Posted by alan @ 08:24 AM 14 Comments

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Government set to milk FTBs at the bottom end of a rising market!

Financial Times via Daily Mail: UK state set for £4.5bn Help to Buy profit

George Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme is poised to generate £4.5bn in profit for the government, making the Treasury one of the biggest beneficiaries of a housing boom. Research by the Financial Times shows that the government is on track to make a 59 per cent rate of return in nominal terms over its lifetime. The equity loans are interest-free for the first five years and Financial Times modelling assumes that all buyers sell their homes at the end of this period, when the government reaps the uplift in its stake of the property. FT article is better but you need to be a subscriber or enter via a backdoor.

Posted by enuii @ 11:34 PM 3 Comments

Excellent point

Telegraph: Baby boomers were handed 'free housing', says top insurance boss

Insurance chief points out that gains in housing for the boomers exceed their costs i.e. they end up with housing for nothing. What a gap in wealth!! The comments go into absolute denial, all talking about mortgage costs and deliberately missing the point which is that when these boomers (that age group anyway there was no specific boom in the UK) sell up, they will get not only the money they put in, put also the original value of the house on top. So from that view, it was free. A very good rallying point to encourage easing of planning permission. You can't help but think what a disgrace it is, with all the tragic consequences, to have been a deliberate policy.

Posted by stillthinking @ 10:13 AM 0 Comments

China bubble burst affects all bubbles

Telegraph: China property bubble is bursting

I cannot help thinking something nasty is on its way..china has been a driver of the world economy Since 2007/2008 however they increased their credit to $25 trillion...the increase is the same As the entire US and Japan banking systems....the increase is!....reading this article assuming It's correct is extremely worrying....Will Chinese buy into our bubble after the expected fallout

Posted by taffee @ 08:56 AM 1 Comments

Friday, May 2, 2014

The Property Bubble in Ireland - An Infographic€

Planet Property: The Property Bubble in Ireland -€“ An Infographic€

Here's a nice inforgraphic showing the boom's winners, losers, and current state of the Irish market ... some staggering losses.

Posted by the planet @ 04:20 PM 0 Comments

Market Report: A SEXY ADDRESS CAN ADD 40% TO THE VALUE OF A HOME

Wetherell.co.uk: APRIL 2014 -€“ A SEXY ADDRESS CAN ADD 40% TO THE VALUE OF A HOME

New research shows why homes prices located in Crescents, Squares and Mews are higher than those in Streets, Courts and Roads. Homes in London's Crescents are the most expensive - worth an average of £2,103 per sq/ft. The second ones are Squares at £1,807sq/ft and the third most expensive spot is reserved for Mews. Wilton Crescent in London's Belgravia is the most expensive address in the capital, according to new research by Wetherell estate agents. Grosvenor Square is one of the most expensive Squares in London.

Posted by tanja @ 02:50 PM 2 Comments

When will it all blow? Think Minsky Cycle

Renegade Economist: When The Herd Turns

Current best practices in risk management work only when correlations are stable. At turning points historical relationships between assets break down. The only way to effectively anticipate future risk factors is by understanding root macroeconomic causes. "It's like a big company - about to go bust - where the fundamentals are terrible. It takes a while, and it all looks wonderful RIGHT up until the last minute......then suddenly all collapses" hpwatcher

Posted by neo-serf @ 02:33 PM 0 Comments

Repulsive fat slumlord kicks out tenant over boiler repairs

Guardian: Tenant evicted 'because he wanted hot water'

Koper has always paid his £695 monthly rent on time for the two years thought that sorting out the boiler would be straightforward. He emailed the Wilsons the same morning he discovered the problem. But what followed was a series of increasingly abrupt emails, seen by Guardian Money, in which Koper was first told to fix the issue himself – "Look it up online" – and which finished with "The problem appears to be you do not know how to operate hot water in warm weather." He had no reply. But that same day, at 5.15pm, a bombshell dropped into his inbox. The agents, ASM, emailed to say they said they had been "instructed by your landlord, Mrs J Wilson, to issue the enclosed formal notice stating they require possession of [the property] after July 8." A section 21 notice

Posted by khards @ 01:45 PM 6 Comments

An investigation into why London real estate has been such a brilliant investment

Pieria: An investigation into why London real estate has been such a brilliant investment

It's one thing to attribute the rise of house prices to inflation, interest rate cuts, economic geography, and the hunt for safe assets, but the big question is, will this appreciation continue?

Posted by m @ 11:56 AM 0 Comments

Investing for long-term gain

Landlord Referencing: Investing for long-term gain

Traditionally, buy-to-let has always offered two types of return. Thanks to appreciation, property tends to protect against inflation in the long term, whilst the ability to rent a property out to paying tenants means that it can pay for its own overheads and potentially generate a tidy profit in the meantime.

Posted by amelia @ 11:15 AM 0 Comments

Could a 35-year mortgage be the best way onto the housing ladder?

Homes24: Could a 35-year mortgage be the best way onto the housing ladder?

Post MMR, is a longer term mortgage more affordable? Maybe...

Posted by amelia @ 11:13 AM 1 Comments

Miliband'€™s rental market proposals the right answer?

Planet Property: Miliband'€™s rental market proposals the right answer?

Ed Miliband wants to reform the rental market - what'€™s not to like?

Posted by the planet @ 10:59 AM 0 Comments

We are in a colossal speculative bubble

Telegraph: Speculative fever is back to 2008 level plus

How is this all going to end?...or will it never end?...either way everything points to something potentially very nasty happening..but when?

Posted by taffee @ 10:32 AM 13 Comments

Let markets regulate themselves....but if they drop, we will grease them with cheap cash

Telegraph: 'Dangerous' to ignore house price boom, warns BoE deputy

Bank of England deputy Jon Cunliffe argues it would be “dangerous to ignore the momentum that has built up in the UK housing market” Surging house prices pose the single biggest threat to UK financial stability, the deputy Governor of the Bank of England has warned. Sir Jon Cunliffe said that policymakers must decide quickly whether to take action to cool the market and, in the starkest warning yet that rapid price rises could derail Britain’s recovery, argued that it would be “dangerous to ignore the momentum that has built up in the UK housing market”.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:49 AM 11 Comments

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Buy to let landlords say of reckoning

Daily Telegraph: Labour to cap rent on Buy to Let property

Labour leader Ed Miliband will say his party would pass new laws to make renting more affordable and give tenants greater protection against rogue landlords. He would also legislate to make 3 year tenancy the standard. This has set of howls of outrage with the vested interest, who argue that tenants will suffer as a result of this absurd policy and will cut of their noses to spite their faces and not rent out their properties. It may be an interesting election if housing becomes a central theme. Whilst many home owners like the fact that their properties are higher in value, many have sons, daughter and relatives in the rental market.

Posted by britishblue @ 06:17 PM 32 Comments

Double digit house price rises countered by double digit real income falls for young adults

Telegraph: Britons suffer 'unprecedented' fall in real wages

British workers have suffered an “unprecedented” decline in real wages over the past six years, with the average employee £2,000 worse off since the financial crisis hit, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. “For workers aged between 18 and 25, the fall in real wages in the recent period has been so extreme that, in real terms, wages are back to levels not seen since 1998.” They also noted that the fall in the 25 to 29-year-old age group was also substantial. Real pay among these workers fell by 12pc, taking wage levels back to where they were in 1999.

Posted by enuii @ 05:00 PM 0 Comments

Tongue-in-cheek article on who really benefits from immigration

Melt Fund: MeltFund Will Open the Immigration Floodgates With Joy

"And the ultimate economic effect of that will be? To raise rents, mortgage interest and property prices, in proportion. BINGO! Those who are anti immigration had better not be property owners for cryin' out loud. THAT is why we really love immigration. THAT is why we will open the flood gates after successfully lobbying parliament for it, using our huge fund to buy the politicians whom the majority willingly elect."

Posted by pete green @ 10:50 AM 2 Comments

Wonders of FLS - Riding for a fall

Telegraph: House prices rose 10.9pc in April, the first double-digit increase in four years

House price growth picked up steam in April, bringing the annual rate into double-digit territory for the first time in four years. House prices rose 1.2pc in April, bringing the year-on-year rise to 10.9pc, according to a survey by mortgage lender Nationwide.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:57 AM 22 Comments

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