Wednesday, January 8, 2014

House prices fall 0.6% in December

Halifax house price index

House prices down! Time was when this would be up here within minutes of its release. Have all the bears turned bull? Is this a sign of a turn?

Posted by cornishman @ 08:24 PM (4207 views)
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18 thoughts on “House prices fall 0.6% in December

  • Hi Cornishman – I thought the same when I saw it earlier. Very surprised it hadn’t been posted (I tried but my laptop crashed and I couldn’t be bothered to go through it all again – hardly anybody ever comments any more). But nice to see an article about house prices… they’re quite rare on here these days. And I don’t give a toss if monthly figures are volatile – if it’s negative it’s accurate in my book.

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  • Well, I just knew this would happen – just after I finally bought a house. I held out for over 10 years thinking prices were just completely insane and had to correct any time soon. I was posting on this forum to that effect from about 2003 or so. I still think they are insane – but living in a one bed rental flat with my wife and son took its toll on us. Couldn’t even get a 25 year mortgage as I’m now too old for that.

    But seriously – this is a minor blip. But I would say that now, wouldn’t I? 😉

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Finally, a reliable statistic! Yippee!

    Her Indoors has been turning up the “nesting instinct” nonsense as of late, this might be my get out of jail free card.

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  • Hi timmy 🙂

    Glad to see that wadsworth hasn’t jumped ship yet. I was beginning to wonder.

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  • We’ve not all left, I still lurk every day – but I agree the level of debate has died down. Doesn’t help that we are essentially just playing a waiting game, doesn’t leave a lot to discuss!

    Anyway, I wish you all a happy new year, let’s hope 2014 is the tipping point, etc. I was looking at houses in London just now (I live in Kent these days). How can this pretence even continue? Maybe I *could* raise £300k for a one-bed flat in some skanky part of Hackney, but I ain’t gonna.

    I’m still of the opinion that until falls crystallise in London, there is not really a full-on HPC. Maybe we’ll see it this year, and maybe not!

    I am still finding the economic discussions interesting on here though, but I’ll leave them for their own threads…

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  • Surprising considering the lack of stock. All the agents I spoke to (SW London) recently advised me not to buy because they were pretty much sold out of flats and the summer had been a feeding frenzy with tons of silly offers kicking around. One said they had not seem panic buying like it except in Summer 2007.

    The press concensus is that house prices will rise this year as much as last, but the conditions going forward are considerably worse.

    Weirdly, no one has mentioned the effect of the CGT on foreigners, the end of FLS, the fact that HTB2 proved to be a damp squib, whose effect was mostly psychological (and is therefore pretty much over). One arch-bear I spoke to summed it up best: if prices haven’t started falling by spring, buy (as the govt. will effectively have pulled it off), if they start to waver, wait a year (as the momentum from last summer is likely to turn very fast and the more recent measures to calm the market kick in).

    These are not pie-in-the-sky phenomena like the US govt. shutdown everyone feared this time last year. These are real things affecting mortgage lending and cash purchases in this country, this coming year.

    I’m not denying the existence of the, admittedly consumer-credit-fuelled, recovery, I’m just saying that most of the things that allowed house prices to turn a corner are not expected to persist through 2014, but for some reason, the price rises are.

    I think the press are still guilty of only considering supply and demand, as opposed to credit conditions.

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  • Happy New Year everyone !

    This can’t be right – house prices down in December 2013 – house prices only ever go up !

    I’ve been speaking to someone who recently purchased around 80 properties in Blackpool and his comments were that he was “going to ride the property bubble” confident he can get out before the bubble bursts !

    Mortgage enquiry Friday 3rd Jan from a couple in West Yorkshire looking to buy in LS postcode found 15 people chasing the property and it was sold yesterday (subject to contract) to a cash buyer at inflated asking price !

    In summary it’s 2014 and the madness continues

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  • Nor has anyone mentioned London’s impending highly infectious drug-resistant TB epidemic. Enjoy your tube journey. Exodus.

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  • happy mondays says:

    I think 2014 will be the year of pumping the housing market before GE & then the inevitable fall! The Swinging pendulum!

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  • Here’s hoping – to all the above. No one has mentioned the ‘return to normal’ phase of a bubble (see Lifecycle of a bubble. Note the absence of a scale on the time axis – the crash is yet to happen…

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  • bidin, that graph is quite compelling. Especially if we are just under the ‘R’ of return to normal!

    The trouble is, it’s missing a ‘central bank and government meddling’ phase

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  • Looks like we have run out of sheep attempting to front run the fictional 2014 price rises induced by the Nasty Party’s Help To Sell scheme.

    Though this might happen as people panicked to buy ‘anything’ in 2013 in an attempt to save/make some money in 2014 a prices keep rising above wage inflation forever in some pig flying mystical fashion. I guess the bad news for them is their mortgage payments can only go up from here.
    Good things come to those who wait, and those who wait often find that they don’t need what the adverts/propaganda told them they needed.

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  • Is the fugure seasonally adjusted as I’d have thought prices always fell around this time of year.
    Also, house prices have fallen over 20% in real terms since 2007 – 10% nominal drop and 12% increase in average wages – so dont know if the “return to mean” will be as dramatic as shown on the graph this time around.

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  • Just Made A Mistake says:

    just made the mistake of buying a house for cash, very cheap house in north west region! got sick of waiting for houses to fall in the midlands. Now i feel i’m a mug! especially when i think i’ve bought on ‘Benefits Street’

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  • @14
    are you a btl? if so I don’t think you will find much sympathy on these boards. If not, commiserations, it is hobson’s choice.
    N

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  • Just Made A Mistake says:

    @15
    no i’m not a BTL, Just needed a home as i was a 40 something living in other peoples spare bedrooms!

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Still lurking periodically however with another child due in two weeks it’s looking increasingly that i’ll have to bite the bullet and buy a three-bed by the summer.

    Can’t see any sign of a crash before now and then. Guess you can only dodge the bullet for so long.

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  • sibley – have you thought about building your own home?

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