Friday, September 6, 2013

Quelle surprise

Halifax House Price Index

Annual change +5.4% Quarterly change +2.1% Monthly change +0.4% Average Price £170,231

Posted by dill @ 08:33 AM (3812 views)
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26 thoughts on “Quelle surprise

  • Thecountofnowhere says:

    Most of the country is 5% poorer due to the government giving away tax payers money to banks to lend at insanely low rates.

    This is not going to end well.

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  • If you rent from private landlords you have no security and the money has gone.
    Rent from banks (mortgages) and you have security and get rewarded handsomely with tax free gains.
    Think on.

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  • The wonders of government intervention and debt.

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  • @ str 2007 Think on.

    Mmm….Price falls on the other side of this artificially engineered lift….Mmm…the possibility of property taxes in the future….Mmm…Back breaking levels of servicing cost against a high debt down the line…Mmm…Entrapment…Mmm…The complacency of existing owners…Mmm………

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  • I’ve rented all my life (now 39) and am in the fortunate position of being able to save a reasonable amount each year. The current idea (with a fair bit of leaning on MrsR) is to keep saving so we will only have to buy once, a family home in 3-5 years, when we know which primary school our son gets into to.

    The problem is that most VI forecasts are now predicting 20% price increases over the next 5 years. If very lucky our savings may match this but nothing else.

    Therefore with low IRs it makes sense to get an even bigger mortgage than planned and buy now. But having been a saver all my life I hate the idea of having a large debt and are the VIs right? Dilemmas…

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  • tommyr: you probably already know that mortgages get harder to obtain once you’re older than 40? (40 years old plus 25 year mortgage term equals retirement age of 65)

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  • dill, I’d like to add an Mmm to your list

    Mmm…the horror of paying someone else’s mortgage for 25 years and consequently having to carry on paying rent from retirement ‘til death

    If anyone can afford to pay their own mortgage instead of someone else’s, then they should seriously consider doing so. Speculating on rises and falls is no more sensible than going to the bookies. If someone can’t get a mortgage, then that is a tragedy but there’s no point in implying that paying rent is in some way preferable. It sucks and the government should do more to help people buy. By help I mean build millions of houses rather than stick a band aid on the problem via help to buy type schemes

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  • Hi Flashman
    You took the words out of my mouth.
    Dill
    In time terms if you’d bought in 2007 5 years ago you’d be 20-25% of the way through your mortgage by now, your house would still be worth roughly what you paid (if you live in the South East) and that’s through a horrendous financial crisis.
    The markets seem to be picking up now, although I agree that could result in interest rates rising and QE being slowed. But if the business environment fails to pick up interest rates will likely stay low.
    Either way you’ll end up worse off renting long term IMO.
    Tommy R
    Secondary school will likely have a bigger sway on the right area to buy rather than primary school.
    If there’s a choice near you, choose area by the best secondary school catchment (you’ll pay a premium) and by definition you’ll likely end up with a good primary/junior school and your children will then go through both schools with core friends from the early years. All being well.
    And as Flashman says, get you 25 year mortgage now, you can always pay it off early if things go well.
    Good luck.

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  • Hi str, good to hear from you again

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  • Well b*gger me sideways, I never thought I’d agree with flashman but I think he’s correct in this instance

    I just bought because I’m 15 years to retirement, just taken on a 15 year mortgage (10 year fix at 4%).Was renting for 8 years after selling up in Scotland and moving back to England. I can’t wait 2-3 years for this new bubble to pop, no guarantee of that anyway. Just decided to get on with it, use my deposit and pay down a mortgage so I own something by the time I get the gold watch.

    I’ve paid 8years in total of three different landlords’ mortgages and while for most of that period it suited me – either because of falling prices, or because I needed the flexibility of easily moving location at the time – it does get to be a pain after a bit.

    TommyR at your stage of life I’d just get on with it.

    As for the most analysts and 20% increases, well in nominal terms its possible I guess but it wouldn’t the driving force in terms of a decision for me. Can’t you just buy in a good area near a decent school?

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  • Funny how most ppl on here seem to be turning into property bulls.

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  • Thanks Flashman, MrsR will most likely get the mortgage as she’s the main breadwinner and is a spritely 36, but certainly something to consider if we don’t buy for another 3+ years.

    re: your comment @ 6 – there have been periods (not recent times though sadly) when renting has made financial sense compared to buying. It doesn’t always make sense to buy although with HLB, FLS, low IRs and price increase forecasts I think buying will be best for some years to come.

    Still renting throughout my life has enabled me to live in homes that I could have never afforded to buy and given me the flexibility to move if wanted.

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  • No problem tommyr.

    By the way it doesn’t matter that your wife is a spritely 36 (a younger woman AND the main breadwinner – you the man!). The miserable sods at the mortgage companies always take the older of a couple as base point, even if the older person is not the main breadwinner. That might not be the case if you’re not on the deeds or mortgage application.

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  • Put my hand up. Similar to montesquieu, I am 48 recently went with a 15 year mortgage, 5 year fixed at 3%, my deposit being 36%. I kept quite a bit of cash back to do renovations I wanted. Mortgage payment now significantly less than rent for a similar house.

    Although I would have preferred a HPC, having now committed myself to a mortgage (“death contract” according to wikipedia) I now find myself at peace with rising inflation and financial shenanigans that undermine our currency. So from that respect am a bit happier with the world than when I was renting, and speculating on HP falls. HP did actually fall 20% in area of Manchester so it was worth hanging back for the past few years so am grateful I did and this site.

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  • Flashman, thanks I didn’t know that, I may have to steer clear of the application entirely.

    STR, Montesquieu – thanks for advice; I may well bite the bullet, I just need to get head around such a big mortgage. Still as you said if I had bought in 2007 I would be 20% through mortgage and I’ve now given up thinking crash will come in the next few years

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  • Yes tommyr, go on, buy. You know you want to! 😉

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  • @ hpw “Funny how most ppl on here seem to be turning into property bulls.”

    Interesting, isn’t it? The short term plan is working.

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  • Interesting, isn’t it? The short term plan is working.

    Yes, it’s pulling them all in. So much like August 2007; when people could not throw their money at housing fast enough, then 3 months later….nothing was selling at all.

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  • Dill & hpwatcher – I agree gov’t intervention and the short term plan are both working incredible well. With HTB, FLS, the BOE not caring about inflation and low IR’s I can’t see the crash happening for some years to come, so I maybe throwing in the towel…

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  • Dill & hpwatcher – I agree gov’t intervention and the short term plan are both working incredible well. With HTB, FLS, the BOE not caring about inflation and low IR’s I can’t see the crash happening for some years to come, so I maybe throwing in the towel…

    Ah apologies, not meant to be a criticism, each one of us has to do their best according to their situation and needs.

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  • @ tommyr

    Ditto to hpw’s comment @20.

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  • It wasn’t taken as criticism; I have always enjoyed this site for people’s views, insights and the links to interesting articles.

    If the real crash starts the day after I buy a house I will laugh (just b4 crying)

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  • letsgetreadytotumble says:

    Nobody has mentioned guilts and their increasing rates. The 10 yr rate is ramping up, and will surely push interest rates up, and that will collapse house prices. Could all be sooner rather than later.

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  • Thecountofnowhere says:

    i see the vi estate agent type posters are out in force today.

    if you reel so strongly about buying then please help bail out a bank and go buy.

    ill continue to rent my lovely house at half what it would cost me to buy and continue to save/invest the rest and one the process continue to make much better returns than buying a house…this will happily keynes afford to rent a decent house till the end of my days. leave the idiots to buy a bubble priced asset with money lent at artificially low rates. good luck..you will need it.

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  • Always difficult to say whether renting or buying is best these days. A few years ago, renting won hands down; now it’s looking the opposite – unless prices do come down, that is. And they don’t have to come down much too swing the pendulum back to renting. But there are one’s personal circumstances to consider too. But it seems to me the economy is pretty unstable. It could carry on its slow improvement: it could turn nasty. In the end no one knows. Whatever you decide to do, you have to trust your luck.

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  • Meanwhile, elsewhere in the news hidden by all the propaganda other statistics released today reveal that the UK’s deficit widened to -£10bn from a forecast -£8bn, including the Services Golden Child the deficit figures are -£3.1bn from -£1.3bn the previous month. UK exports fell 9.1% and over on the continent the German economic output contracted -1.7% from a forecast -1.3%.

    All good stuff to prop living standards, house prices and all that other stuff whose inflated prices depend on cheap borrowing.

    Watch the used car market for all those ‘luxury vehicles’ that have been ‘leased’, ‘personal contracted’ and otherwise financed using exotic plans and cheap government ‘printed’ money flooding the market.

    Meanwhile at the lower end of the spectrum pressure on food, energy, and other everyday essentials continues unabated whilst wages are stagnant or falling in real terms, chipping away like a slow growing cancer on discretionary spending.

    Tread carefully as I don’t think ‘things can only get better’.

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