Thursday, September 12, 2013

Credit crunch for EU small business in Italy and Spain.

Eurozone industrial slump dashes hopes of strong recovery

"Industrial output fell sharply". "Production slid by 1.5pc from a month earlier, with a shock fall of 2.3pc in Germany and 8.7pc in Ireland where pharmaceutical output appears to have buckled. The biggest drops were in large capital goods and consumer durables, a clear sign that "imported" monetary tightening from the US is squeezing credit. Borrowing costs have jumped by some 70 basis points across the world since the US Federal Reserve began to talk of winding down stimulus, with knock-on effects though the eurozone". Italy faces a HPC as the oldies sell up & exit the housing market (Zerohedge/Bloomberg). Unemplyment up in the south - again. Not sure how many more bailouts Greece needs :-(

Posted by alan @ 07:59 PM (2541 views)
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23 thoughts on “Credit crunch for EU small business in Italy and Spain.

  • Things are steady here in the Emerald Isles, crisis ongoing it’s just a way of life now.

    The propaganda, massaged figures and forward estimations the UK put’s out make me chuckle. I mean wtf do they think they will export to? The entire of Europe, USA, China and India think they can export their way out of recession – must be aliens buying stuff. Perhspas sinking a few ships would improve economic growth?

    I see the UK is different.. Money printing is good and sustainable.

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  • The propaganda and massaged figures over here are preparations to transfer blame elsewhere, i.e. oh look everything was coming up roses until things out of our control screwed it all up.

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  • khards, you get your facts mangled so consistently that it can’t be put down to accidental error. You post bullish charts to prove a recession and yesterday you posted wage data that showed the opposite to what you claimed. Now you’re doing it with the words above. The US and the UK exited recession a few years ago and China and India never actually entered into it, in the first place.

    You’ve now taken your mangled reality crusade so far that you disrupt decent debates to call anyone who posts a genuine fact or an opposing opinion a troll. I don’t know if you’re still in there khards but try to think about who the troll here actually is. This purpose of this site is not to provide some sort of alternative reality shelter for people who don’t like the world. This site is a place for debate and a debate needs differing opinions and properly presented facts. I am genuinely sorry if you’re in pain (calling your fellow sufferers scum in a post yesterday is the ‘tell’) but attempting to turn this site into a fact free, debate free zone is not the answer.

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  • @flashy – give it up. It’s not me trying to prove anything it is you.

    “You’ve now taken your mangled reality crusade so far that you disrupt decent debates to call anyone who posts a genuine fact” – Again the post you made above proves that what you accuse me of is actually what you are doing.

    “calling your fellow sufferers scum” – I wouldn’t be so quick to jump to the conclusion that I am suffering, perhaps this is you again.

    “but attempting to turn this site into a fact free, debate free zone is not the answer.” – Again everything you have posted above is void of fact and is you opinion.

    Take it somewhere else flashie.

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  • “The entire of Europe, USA, China and India think they can export their way out of recession”

    Wrong. The US and the UK exited recession a few years ago and China and India never actually entered into it, in the first place.

    “Here is an interesting link of average wages across Europe, you can see the UK has some of the lowest wages in Western Europe”

    Wrong. It showed nothing of the sort

    This is the sort of stuff I’m talking about. Why? What does it achieve?

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  • “Here is an interesting link of average wages across Europe, you can see the UK has some of the lowest wages in Western Europe” – You analysis is incorrect, take a look at the data again.

    Anyway flashman do you have nothing better to do than come here trolling and misrepresenting economic data points?

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  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_Europe_by_monthly_average_wage

    Khards, here is your link. Using the highlighted net column we can see that 24 countries are below us and 12 are above us. Using the more complete gross column we can see that 29 countries are below us. Why then do you still maintain that “you can see the UK has some of the lowest wages in Western Europe”? It’s clearly not true. Are facts just an inconvenience or do you not understand what you are looking at? No answer to my first point querying your ‘recession’ comment?

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  • Flashie – I am looking at the Western Europe, not the entire set that you are arguing about.

    Another straw man argument.

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  • Er, back to the article. Handbags not so interesting. Has industrial output fallen in the Eurozone? Yes. Is this good news for Britain? No, the EZ is our major trading partner.
    N

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  • @khards
    Re your first post. The UK is very different to Ireland because it has its own currency. This means its capacity to deal with both balance of payments deficits and government deficits is qualitatively different. In the former case it can devalue and in the latter in can print money to pay sterling denominated debts, restructure government debt and so on. It can’t be in a position not to be able to repay sterling debt though it can debase sterling or eventually cause inflation. In Ireland both problems are effectively foreign currency debt, since it cannot increase the quantity of euros, it also cannot devalue relative to other euro economies, so it could not keep the plates spinning as long as the UK has.

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  • “Flashie – I am looking at the Western Europe, not the entire set that you are arguing about”

    Not remotely true. You said:

    “Here is an interesting link of average wages across Europe,

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  • britishblue, you seem familiar? Concise enough for you?

    nickb: but it hasn’t dashed any hopes. Growth is accelerating and the markets expect more

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  • Flash
    But it’s another indication that it (the recovery) is driven primarily by the housing market. That is, an apparent ponzi dynamic, since the action there seem mostly to do with inflating site values, and consequently loans that are not self amortising.
    N

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  • @flashman – Yawn,

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  • nick, I’m not sure that’s true. The Eurozone PMI remained marginally positive in July and the August PMI has just beaten all expectations. Germany in particular reversed this July news with better than expected export growth. The Eurozone is the most stubbornly mired of the main economic zones but the latest indications are that it’s just poked it’s nose above the water. I expect they’ll wobble about a bit before we can see a clear trend

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  • @Flashman,

    From the top of the article:

    ” Production slid by 1.5pc from a month earlier, with a shock fall of 2.3pc in Germany and 8.7pc in Ireland where pharmaceutical output appears to have buckled.

    “This is a hugely disappointing start to the third quarter. There is clearly a risk that GDP could contract again,” said Chris Williamson from Markit.”

    What part do you disagree with?

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  • @ 17 “What part do you disagree with?”

    Nearly all of it. See the link I posted @18 to more up to date news. The headline reads “Eurozone growth hits 26-month high, says PMI survey”

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  • Flash,
    What is the “purchasing managers’ index” measuring? Managers’ beliefs? Reported purchases? What?
    The DT article talks about output. Seems a lot clearer to me.
    N

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  • nick, that’s an interesting question. I take it for granted but I can see why someone might assume that it’s just another survey. The PMI is actually very important. It’s used by central banks, economists and manufacturers who need early, accurate information. It’s even standardised across most countries, so we can get proper comparisons. Take a look at the markit website if you want to know more.

    To answer your question more specifically, here’s a cut and paste from Wiki

    “A key feature of the PMI surveys is that they ask only for factual information. They are not surveys of opinions, intentions or expectations and the data therefore represent the closest[2] one can get to “hard data” without asking for actual figures from companies.[2]”

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  • That doesn’t tell me what it actually measures!
    N

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  • It measures:

    new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, employment.

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