Friday, August 2, 2013

MoM +0.8%; YoY +3.9%; AP(nsa) £170,825

House Price Index July 2013 (pdf)

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Posted by dill @ 08:07 AM (2614 views)
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23 thoughts on “MoM +0.8%; YoY +3.9%; AP(nsa) £170,825

  • mark wadsworth says:

    These surveys are getting increasingly unreliable nowadays.

    Not like when I was a lad, you could get fish and chips and still have change out of a farthing.

    Reply
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  • and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt, and more debt…..

    Reply
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  • brickormortis says:

    You may recall my post a few months back that reported house prices shooting up in Oxford and selling rather rapidly. Well this is what I meant and it is worse here. Problem is, homes are being sold in my area and then it turns out they go straight up for rent! Lowering interest rates has made it much, much easier for those in their 40’s and 50’s to stick more and more cash into buy to let, particularly those in well paid jobs who bought before the last boom cycle. We are absolutely doing two things here:

    1) Making it much easier for buy to letters
    2) pushing up house prices for first time buyers and pumping up the next bubble.

    We now have a situation where house prices are growing having not really corrected anywhere near what they should. If interest rates rise, we will find that those prices are catastrophically unsustainable.

    My gut feeling is, interest rates will not rise for many, many years and this will underpin house prices. It won’t mean we all get to live in our own home, but it will mean that houses sell to those with money and renters will keep on renting – at nice high prices thus preventing them from saving a deposit for their own place.

    I hate so much about this country but nothing more than our housing mentality.

    Reply
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  • @brickormortis – A rent strike will sort all that out.

    . Harness the power of social media.
    . Educate and enrage people about their situation.

    A couple of months rent arrears (mortgage arrears) will make them fall into place. What are they going to do with a couple of million renters who will not pay? Get a million bailiffs to evict them?

    Failing that get yourself a good spot and a cardboard box.

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  • Not only would a rent strike cause a little media attention and some short term pain for landlords, it would also discourage others to join in the BTL ponzi and affect property valuations based on rental income.

    It is a win – win situation.

    Reply
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  • @ brickormortis,
    Yes, but it’s more than you outlined. If we are a capitalist society, we need capital. Were does that come from? ~ savers.

    Capital funds new projects, new industries and new technology. Capital is currently being sucked into the housing market instead of commerce and industry. Start-ups are starved of funds as banks re-jig balance sheets. We are becoming an island race of speculators. Meanwhile, the people who saved money (and didn’t go into debt) are penalised by having their interest rates chopped from around 5 or 6% in pre-crisis times to 1.1% now.

    Reply
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  • My gut feeling is, interest rates will not rise for many, many years and this will underpin house prices.

    That’s if all goes well, and according to plan – but we shall see about that.

    Reply
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  • Yes, but it’s more than you outlined. If we are a capitalist society, we need capital. Were does that come from? ~ savers.

    This isn’t capitalism – it’s CRAPITALISM capitalism without capital.

    You heard it here first folks.

    Reply
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  • @ hpwatcher,
    I read the term Crony Capitalism on this site about 3 years back. It’s Capitalism which only benefits a select few.

    By leeching the system, jobs dry up for young people leaving school/college and wages/salaries rise slower than inflation.

    For example: if you’ve just secured a big government contract you can hive off the profits, offshore. Then you cut the staff, load up the rest with more responsibility till the contract falls over and it gets in the papers. Then you say “I’m sorry, we have made changes, it won’t happen again”.

    Reply
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  • House prices will now continue to rise until rates are increased. Rates will only be increased when then have to be. So the house price bubble will now continue on indefinitely.. Even moneyweek have capitulated suggesting buying Barrats is the way forward… If I were you guys I give up for a good few years (or die of frustration) The second leg of the bubble is just starting… On the plus side.. chances of Ed Millipede getting in are reducing.. every cloud and all that!!!

    Reply
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  • It is different this time as public and private debt it already at high levels.

    TBH, I think the UK really needs a big and fast bubble to wake the people up. 15% yoy for the next few years would actually be good because people will look around in amazement at prices rising, the bubble will pop and not only will it bankrupt brittan but people will workout that HPI is actually bad for the economy.

    I look forward to moving back when the Troika come to town.

    Reply
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  • @ hpwatcher,
    I read the term Crony Capitalism on this site about 3 years back. It’s Capitalism which only benefits a select few.

    By leeching the system, jobs dry up for young people leaving school/college and wages/salaries rise slower than inflation.

    Yeah, but Crap-italism is capitalism with debt.

    Reply
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  • Thank you dill – wonderful news. Aren’t you happy?

    Not sure I would call MoM +0.8%; YoY +3.9% modest growth.

    UK employment depends upon part time work – not full time employment. The affordability is based upon UK government policy of very low interest rates.

    Reply
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  • mark wadsworth says:

    These figures are unreliable to the point of being depressing.

    In a few years time will we be referring to Osborne’s Dash for Growth in the same sentence as Barber, the Lawson Boom, the Brown Bubble and so on?

    Reply
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  • Glad I got out [of the country] when I did. What do HPC’ers make of the divergence between rent and wages? Nationwide believe that it is down to supply restriction, but could it me more due to interest rates than supply restriction?

    It will be interesting to see how long rent rises outstrip wage rises, a few more years perhaps?

    Reply
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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    How thoroughly depressing.

    Still, great news for the bankers and rentiers.

    I make it Pimm’s o’clock.

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  • It’s the policies of Gordon Brown.

    Reply
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  • WTF…. good news for affordability? Inline with long term averages! Yeah right, only true because interest rates on their -bottom- and anyone who bases affordability on the current rate is a lunatic.

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  • Just to cap it all, Santander has dropped it’s ISA rates today. Savers are dead in the water, right now.

    I’m not tempted to follow the media and buy banking shares or Royal Mail. Lot more offerings of BtL in a financialised form (NOoooo).

    Glad I haven’t got a young family – rather difficult right now to pay the mortgage with very low pay rises. Barely enough for the Interest….

    Reply
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  • I remember one Sunday morning last year. I hardly watch telly nowadays, but happened to be flicking through TV channels that morning and I came across Andrew Marr’s show – he was hosting George Osborne. That was the moment he announced launching his funding for lending scheme. I’ve been following HPC for a while by then, and like many HPCrashers I rented and waited for a price correction. But the moment I heard his words I said to my missis: we need to buy now. Very glad we spent our savings on a deposit, it all went through and we did buy earlier this year, as prices only went up and up since, thanks to boy George and his other new slimy schemes. I am indebted for a few years now, but sort of relieved at the same time, as I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. My two hopes are: first is that I manage to pay off my mortgage before it all goes tit’s up; second – it all goes tit’s up big time before my kids grow up.

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  • @Alan – When the going gets tough the tough get going. Time to cut back again i’m afraid.

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