Wednesday, Jul 17, 2013

Housepricecrash?

Counterpunch: Housing shakeup

In the wake of the Fed's 'less QE' announcement and a selloff of USTs "the sudden spike in (mortgage) rates (which is likely to persist) has triggered a bloodbath in mortgage applications which have dipped for 4 weeks straight and are currently down 28 percent on the month." Speculators, who make up 30% of the housing market, are heading for the exits. The history of the withdrawals of stimulus for the housing suggests that this one will have a major impact. Meanwhile banks are recording big profits that are due to....er....reducing the 'expense' of holding reserves against bad loans in light of 'improving conditions of loans'.

Posted by icarus @ 10:24 AM (4505 views)
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16 Comments

1. icarus said...

'housing market' penultimate line

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 10:27AM Report Comment
 

2. mark wadsworth said...

Yeah! Bring it on!

Although there is not really such a thing as "bond market vigilantes", this might just be the pin pr- the house price bubble needs.

Her Indoors' nesting clock is counting down furiously and I can't hold out much longer :-b

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 10:38AM Report Comment
 

3. khards said...

mw. If I recall correctly you were holding out to 2015 which I thought was a wise decision. Throwing the towel in in 2013 would be the last bear turning bull.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 11:14AM Report Comment
 

4. mark wadsworth said...

Khards, I don't care, I'll happily rent for the rest of my life, problem is Her Indoors, I have been fobbing her off for five and a half years and she's sick and tired of all this "Ah but wait, there'll be a big crash soon and then we can by The Home Of Your Dreams for a sensible amount of money" she just doesn't believe it any more :-(

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 11:46AM Report Comment
 

5. tommyr said...

@4 MW - Likewise, my only savour is we have just under 2 years left on our rental contract (if our landlord keeps to it), then Mrs R will get her way.

@3 Khards - am not sure 2015 will be any different; FLS, HTB will keep things rolling probably even after the election.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 12:05PM Report Comment
 

6. happy mondays said...

Without being too negative, this is america not sure if we will follow :(

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 12:21PM Report Comment
 

7. mark wadsworth said...

"Hay pal, this is America, and you're gonna need some help,
From the hand gun in the top right drawer and the pills up on the shelf."

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 12:23PM Report Comment
 

8. happy mondays said...

Lol mw - yup Pills & a hand gun should do the trick!

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 12:42PM Report Comment
 

9. mark wadsworth said...

I did a bit of googling and came up with this glorious list.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 01:11PM Report Comment
 

10. letthemfall said...

It seems it will take a magnitude 8 earthquake to have that effect here, or at least a decent rise in interest rates. Neither v likely. Costs have swung strongly back in favour of buying now, unless prices fall of course. But prices can only go up here in the SE, until one day they don't.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 04:28PM Report Comment
 

11. Piotr said...

mw, I must admit I agree with your partner - there won't be any crash. the govt is too good at propping prices. what if they nationalise all mortgage lending? we did not buy because it feels expensive, to ditch all our savings and get huge debt in exchange for a shoebox in London, not because we are waiting for mythical crash to come

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 05:08PM Report Comment
 

12. hpwatcher said...

It seems it will take a magnitude 8 earthquake to have that effect here, or at least a decent rise in interest rates. Neither v likely. Costs have swung strongly back in favour of buying now, unless prices fall of course. But prices can only go up here in the SE, until one day they don't.

And as we all know - house prices only ever go up......

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 08:10PM Report Comment
 

13. hpwatcher said...

I did a bit of googling and came up with this glorious list.

They seem to be based on quite short time frames, with all the associated volatility. Depends on what headline you want.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 08:12PM Report Comment
 

14. Piotr said...

@4 MW, @5 tommyr, I agree with your Mrs; the prices will not fall. The govt is too good at propping them up. I bet they can even nationalise the whole mortgage lending. We havent bought not because we are waiting for a mythical crash to come - not anymore - but because we don't feel like dumping all our savings and going into huge debt in exchange for a shoebox in London

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 08:40PM Report Comment
 

15. pete green said...

MW - I share your predicament - now Green Junior No 2 is on the way - not a day goes by without the nag :-(

Wednesday, July 17, 2013 11:12PM Report Comment
 

16. mark wadsworth said...

Tommy R, Pete Green, keep the faith!

Or alternatively, go buy yourselves a house. It might turn out that the politicians work out a way of continually subsidising housing so that you're always actually better off buying as big as possible as soon as possible.

Thursday, July 18, 2013 07:56AM Report Comment
 

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