Sunday, January 20, 2013

Need an excuse – blame the weather

Snow threatens triple-dip recession

Disruption caused by snow could see the UK slip back into recession once again. If the snow pushes the UK into another quarter of economic contraction in the first three months of 2013, Britain's economy will have been shrinking five of the last six quarters. 2012 saw the double-dip recession begin in October 2011 and continue for the first half of the year, before being alleviated by growth of 0.9% as a result of the Olympic Games causing a statistical reset.

Posted by enuii @ 02:26 PM (2611 views)
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14 thoughts on “Need an excuse – blame the weather

  • uk gov has to blame something

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    Thank goodness it’s down to something out of the politicians control. I mean if it had been down to years of lax lending restrictions and interest rates then there would be someone to hold accountable, wouldn’t there?

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  • 3rd times a charm.
    Funny that its always someone/something else’s fault.

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  • I’m astonished that the FT has run with this theme too.

    Years ago when I worked with BRC statistics, it used to be a source of mirth that low footfall was blamed first on hot weather, then on cold weather! That joke now appears to have been extended to cover the whole economy.

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  • Just to play devil’s advocate, I’m going to give an anecdotal experience from last night.

    Due to being cooped up in the house most of the day, I decided to pop out to my local Whetherspoons for a pint or two before clsing time. When I arrived, about an hour before usual closing time, they informed me that they’s only taken in about £25 in the last four hours and were about to close early.

    I tried another local on the way back; they had also closed early so no booze for me!

    If this weather continues for another week, it’s hard to see how it cannot have some effect on some sectors of the economy.

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  • This prompted me to have a look round for growth figures and I found this from last October:

    Now, my O level maths from 35 years ago tells me that to get a better comparison of recessions, I should integrate and take the area under the curves (or in this case above). Looked at like this, Brown has engineered an event that is nearly as severe overall as 1930’s, and could yet be worse, as we are not back to where we were in 2008.

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  • My handwritten link seems to cause a problem.

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  • The cold weather will increase gas and heating oil sales, not that that will benefit the general population of the UK.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Nubbers, they keep showing those charts and it does make you wonder.

    Perhaps the 30s recession in the UK wasn’t as terrible as they make out? It hit some parts of the country very badly indeed and left the rest more or less untouched is what I think. or maybe it was just because we were all nearer the breadline then, so a ten or twenty per cent fall in income meant you were actually starving, nowadays our income could fall fifty per cent and most of us would still have plenty of money for food. Or perhaps it was because we didn’t have a welfare system in the 1930s to take the sting out of it.

    Alternatively, things nowadays are far worse than we pretend.

    As I always like to say, I remember the last recession very well, it started in about 1973 and went on until about 1995.

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  • “Now, my O level maths from 35 years ago tells me that to get a better comparison of recessions, I should integrate and take the area under the curves (or in this case above). Looked at like this, BROWN has engineered an event that is nearly as severe overall as 1930’s, and could yet be worse, as we are not back to where we were”

    You mean Osborne?

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  • Oh heaven forbid!!!! The UK at times seems so fragile!

    This is getting totally absurd. Consider:
    1. A hundred years ago we had to make everything ourselves.
    2. Today a large proportion of industrial output is not a function of human labour. This doesn’t only apply in an absolute sense. Bricks are industrially produced, even if people finally build walls with them.

    What is this fragile thing we call the economy? How come we built better homes in the victorian times than we do today?

    Its all misinformation. The fact that the number at the end of a balance sheet is affected by bad weather… This is what politicians talk about???

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  • Mark @10, Good points indeed – the effects of recession/depression all depend on where you are standing. Still, the charts do show what Brown did to the economy, and after all that bleating on about prudence.

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  • Phils @10, Whilst, I think the current government have failed to show any backbone (I tend toward being anti whoever is the current incumbent), I do blame Brown for general squandering of money and pumping up the debt bubble in the first place.

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