Wednesday, October 10, 2012

“With prices now plumbing levels last seen in 2004”

Netherlands House Price Crash Underway; Will France Follow?

"Values have fallen 15 percent from a peak in 2008 and are back to about the same level as eight years ago, CBS said. Prices had already dropped 5.5 percent in May from a year earlier. The Dutch Central Bank forecast in March that house prices will continue to drop through 2014 because of stricter mortgage lending rules and a reduction of a homeowner tax break that spurred the lending boom. Values may fall another 5 percent next year, ING Groep NV economists said in a note Aug. 9." Back to 2004, eh? A bit like the UK then. The fact that the Netherlands is teh "most densely populated country in Europe" doesn't seem to be helping them either.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:26 AM (2894 views)
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13 thoughts on ““With prices now plumbing levels last seen in 2004”

  • The difference being that Netherlands can’t print money and use it to prop-up house prices.
    It is clear that the ruling political parties in the UK will not allow property prices to fall as it is a sure vote loser with the boomer generation – there primary voting base. You can be assured that there will be further money printing – followed by high inflation.

    Prices will not fall and everyone will continue to get poorer.

    I believe the turn around will come after wages have increased by around 30% from 2007 levels. At this point (assuming interest rates can be held down) people will be able to pay down some debt. Since not strategic rules or policy changes have been implemented there will be another boom bust cycle.

    I believe that wage inflation has managed around 7% since 2007, perhaps I will check back in another 10 years time.

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  • boris johnson will get in as PM prices will crash and they will blame the silly ex Mayor who rides a bike with wacky hair and looks a bit like jimmy saville

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  • Mark @ 2

    ‘Now then, now then’.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Khards, that’s their plan, isn’t it?

    Mark, why would Dutch house prices crash if Boris became PM? I can see the vague “bicycle” connection but apart from that..?

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  • It is fairly academic as to who becomes the next PM.
    Most – well, a few – know exactly the way things are going to go, for at least the next decade or so.

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  • i am talking about UK house prices sorry should have made it clearer

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  • The future: In 10 years time the average UK/US boomers will be aged 70, their house buying and investing days over. I would expect UK and US governments to be interfering in all related issues between now and then.
    When push comes to shove and debts and pensions cannot be paid, those indebted will be bailed out by the tax payer and will be allowed to stay in their homes.

    One thing is clear, in 10 years time the average British and American will be poorer that they are today.

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  • Khards
    I disagree somewhat, because with unemployment rising and continued economic contraction people will not be persuaded to borrow enough money to enter the housing market at current prices. In fact, they can’t at present without unrealistically high deposits. Hence the dearth of sales. But the politicians will try like mad to prevent a collapse, it’s true, and have plenty of ammo to throw at the market. So expect a slow and gradual decline, rather than the crash that we need, that is going to pose an agonising choice to regulars on this site. Continue to suffer the slings and arrows of the outrageous rental market, or pour your hard earned savings into a declining asset.
    N

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  • as prices fall,banks will accept lower deposits and people will buy rather than rent

    voids and negative equity will plague the btl market causing a downward spiral in prices owing to forced sales

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  • Khards,

    You have absolutely no idea what the world will be like in 10 years. Your post is just malthusian nonsense, a view you share because you are presumably depressed.

    A more convincing argument could likely be made that everyone will be better off in 10 years, certainly that’s the trend over the past few centuries so why should it alter now.

    If you spent less time in a half lit room chasing shadows (a metaphor), you would maybe notice what is actually happening in the world and how innovative human beings are – faults apart. Also the world as it is is infinitely better than anything you or any other single person could hope to dream up.

    PS get off your high horse

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  • I agree with Khards. I would go further as well, I think that in the UK we are poorer -today- than we were ten years ago, let alone ten years forward. We borrow over 8% of GDP to maintain our current standard of living, strip that out and things would be pretty ugly, and we -will- eventually strip that out. UK stimulus is not going into the UK, it goes abroad. Food becomes more expensive.

    Also, it’s not paranoia to be of the opinion that the UK is in a long-term decline. Nobody mainstream publicly thought the houses were going to collapse but that was the right view, and nobody publicly is of the opinion that all these fiscal excuses and delays are going to bite us in the face.

    If, even the timetable for reducing the deficit is at an optimistic 7 years, then it is a very reasonable assumption that 10 years from now we will be poorer. What 10 year international trend over the past centuries? 35-45 hmm Germany, Japan, Poland, UK we certainly weren’t better off. 1920-1930 no, not better off. 1960-1970s UK not better off.

    This is similar to the thinking that because the “recession” has gone on so long, therefore its bottomed and we are “due” a recovery. No. Not at all. What do you think London will be like in ten years? Better? More parks and open space perhaps? Better NHS? No. Unemployment in the North, much lower? No. More oil from the North Sea? No. Cheaper electricity perhaps? No. Somebody is going to end up poor.

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  • i remember the 90`s says:

    Its always the same on here ,voters (boomers)if you half a dozen youngsters don`t like the fact that your generation don`t vote and just takes what comes do something about it ,a few moans on the site is not going to change anything!!!!!!!!!.

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  • Russia during the 1990s might be a better guide. GDP fell by 30%, disposable income fell by 25%, inflation wiped out savings and life expectancy fell by 3 years.

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