Wednesday, August 1, 2012

-0.7% MoM -2.6% YoY

UK house prices continued to slide in July

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “UK house prices declined for the fourth time in five months in July, with prices falling by 0.7%. This pushed the annual pace of price growth down to -2.6%, from -1.5% in June - the weakest outturn since August 2009.”

Posted by quiet guy @ 07:14 AM (4780 views)
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15 thoughts on “-0.7% MoM -2.6% YoY

  • phdinbubbles says:

    -2.6% is the best annual ‘growth’ since Aug 2009.

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  • I’ve just scanned the Finance section of the Telegraph. Clock this:

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    WTF??? It’s almost as if somebody doesn’t like the headline and has resorted to really desperate counter spin.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Both MoM and YoY are looking reliable, and the YoY is looking three times as reliable as the MoM.

    I know these are only teeny tiny falls, not the 50% price reductions I was hoping for like in USA or Ireland, but at least all the indices are now synchronised and pointing downwards. Once London prices start dropping, it’s all going to start looking a lot rosier.

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  • Think that telegraph story was an error. Halifax don’t event feature in it now

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  • phdinbubbles says:

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  • ” …with the Eurozone situation deteriorating again in recent weeks and few signs of a recovery in domestic demand, we continue to expect only a modest recovery in the quarters ahead”

    Given the tale of economic woe on what does he base his expectation of recovery (of house prices)?!?

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  • Aaaaaah, relief! More air out of the bubble.

    More next month, methinks…

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    PhD, thanks for updating.

    Alan, it looks like more of a long slow hiss, but even annual falls of 2.6% mean I’m better off renting.

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  • i wonder as people are working from home during the Olympics if companies will realise this is more cost effective and start cutting office space, London at the moment looks lovely and quiet

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  • What phd’s graph so ably shows is that we won’t know if these falls will constitute a crash until March, since that is generally when the market rebounds. Of course, if the falls accelerate between now and then, that will be a different story.

    I suspect Nationwide’s Q3 report will show modest annual falls in London, and whether or not they persist in Q4 will determine whether the crash gathers pace.

    I have posted before that the end of the Olympics would mark the beginning of significant falls, based on the assumption that this crash has behaved similarly to the last but on a doubly-long timescale (as you would expect, given the doubly-long boom that preceded it).

    Nevertheless, I was shocked to learn recently (in the Economist) that London’s population had only just stopped a long decline at the beginning of the last crash, whereas now it is growing faster than it has for ages. I used to get really annoyed with people saying demand would always outstrip supply in London, as they crashed so hard last time. I had not realised the capital went through a stage of being unpopular.

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  • Rather than collapsing it’s as if the market is rotting from the inside.

    Properties, especially properties at £500k + go on the market up here in Glasgow and then by and large sit there. A few sell, frequently at a significant discount as compared to 2007 prices, but still at wild levels if you compare say rents or 2001/2002 prices when values were rising but at least still somewhat attached to reality.

    A significant inventory of propery is building as a result and eventually, as I see it, only one or two things can happen.

    (1) Prices continue a downward descent that will take as long to fall as they took to rise with bargains to be negotiated before prices stop falling, or;

    (2) The government truly steps in to completely back stop the bubble and the currency gets hammered as a result.

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  • The housing market is drifting sideways, I am so pleased that I purchased in 2009, the only true window of opportunity, renting is a mugs game in this country as most landlords are amateurs and have no idea in long term investments. Trust me I have done it for five years and never again!
    It would be Armageddon if we had the falls here like Ireland and the USA, no way will the government nor the BOE allow that to happen, the markets will be fudged for years to support house prices.
    There is pent up demand for housing, I know as I have two kids who are at the age where they should be in there own properties but can’t get loans, when the right formula is available for mortgages, there will be a massive up take, and like most HPC the next bubble will be even bigger than the last.

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  • Once London prices start dropping, it’s all going to start looking a lot rosier.

    Amen to that.

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  • 2,300+ views as I write this but relatively few comments, IMO, about one of the best ‘results’ in the housing markets for a while.

    I suppose there isn’t much to say – the numbers speak for themselves – but overall the blog overall seems dead today. From the contrarian perspective, we need sentiment for a HPC to collapse before it happens; that’s probably just wishful thinking by me but I can’t help wondering …

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