Thursday, June 14, 2012

VI’s go from from Bull to Bear

Mortgage lending slumped in April, lenders say

Mortgage lending slumped in April, after the end of the stamp duty concession for first-time buyers, lenders have said. Figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) show that the number of loans to home buyers fell by 30% between March and April to 36,000. The biggest fall was among first-time buyers, with loans to this group down by 48% in the month, to just 12,600. WheThe CML said it was unlikely the market would recover soon.

Posted by jack c @ 11:38 AM (1629 views)
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12 thoughts on “VI’s go from from Bull to Bear

  • Jack, what would be interesting would be to see the number of mortgages and correlation with prices, obviously with a lag. Bar chart for number of mortgages and line graph for HPs. Add to that the consumer confidence numbers as another as a further leading indicator (or is it lagging) et volia!

    Regional numbers might help – or perhaps median rather than mean prices (as they wouldnt get distorted so much by the outliers – eg in Knightsbridge) i wonder if anyone has done this?

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  • TM – it would be much more meaningful/informative as you suggest – perhaps one for PHDinbubbles !

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  • ive answered my opwn question… sort of MWeek (not to be confused with MarkW) has the following:

    http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices

    Consumer confidence : “The GfK UK consumer confidence indicator leads the annual % change in the Halifax UK three-monthly house price index by some four months. The broad downtrend in the GfK indicates that household budgets are still under pressure, which in turn points to further house price falls.” – http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/06-gfk-consumer-confidence-index-uk-house-price-indicator-00004

    Mortgage Approvals: http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/03-boe-mortgage-approvals-uk-house-price-indicator-00002/// “BoE mortgage approvals for house purchase lead annual % changes in the Nationwide UK ‘all houses’ price index by some four months.”

    MWeek use a few other indicators, although they dont do a weighting analysis or “r” on each or on some master indicator combined.

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  • TM – splendid work – I’ll have a look at the links later today.

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  • Jack np – i’m not so sure about using Carpetright myself… still. Anyway hope things are going well in Newcastle – btw did i ever tell you i ran the Great North Run? Very nice folks up there i must say.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Those MWeek charts are all splendid, but they all mysteriously stopped working a couple of years ago, house prices are doing like a cartoon character running off a cliff… and then staying in the air for three years.

    Is this the new normal or have they postponed the inevitable? I am convinced it’s the latter but I’ve been wrong so far 🙁

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  • MW (not MWeek) I think in the next couple of years we will have a “well thats all Folks” :),

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Techie, that was a bit cryptic for me.

    Do you think that this is The New Normal or will prices revert to the mean, and hopefully overshoot?

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  • Its a confidence game now. Having gotten interest rates to almost zero, they can’t do anything more, any QE will be devaluation, so the next thing to fall is confidence when the public recognise that government cannot do anything now to avoid the inevitable rise in interest rates and fall in house prices.

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  • Reuters (today) suggests that banks will be hanging on to their money to meet costs of ring fencing retail ops.

    In another video, yesterday, Reuters suggest that banks are hanging on to their cash in order to preserve liquidity ratios in the event of a scare in the markets. Personally I can’t think of anything to prompt a run on banks, perhaps someone can hazard a guess 🙂

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  • MW i mean thats all of the DCB folks – (we have already had that anyway in my book) so yes the next leg down coincides with falls below mean.

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  • TM (Thursday, June 14, 2012 12:13PM) things are OK this end hope all is well with you. When did you complete the GNR? good to hear you received traditional Geordie hospitality.

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