Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Farage tells the EU

Not enough Lifeboats for the Euro

Posted today. Up to date analysis of the looming bust. Sad to say many Eurocrats were killing themselves laughing as he spoke!

Posted by alan @ 03:05 PM (2809 views)
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16 thoughts on “Farage tells the EU

  • Ken Livingstone agrees the EU should split – “doomed to fail”. Separate nations won’t give up their identities. Ken wants Chinese investment!

    Nigel and Ken both on the same page – courtesy of Sky News.

    Both agree our economy will change as result of what’s happening.

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  • Credibility is stretched for Ken actually, but hey who cares. The analysis of the Euro being doomed to failure (in its current form) is a very easy thing to propose now. As for Farage love him or loathe him, he has always been consistent in his condemnation of the single currency. However personally i think his argument that we should not be part of the EU is a step too far. We should be taking this opportunity (albeit p1ssing on the Euros grave) to drive reform from within so that we can spearhead Europe. Alas thats not gonna happen.

    In summary a trading block with freedoms across borders and zero trading charges ex currency conversions is a good thing. But the only way you can have a single currency that works across diverse economies is to have broadly the same taxes , economic conditions and benefit structures. That necessitates providing money to the poorer countries so that their workers can become consumers. That though is still utopian as the “partners” pocket the money and arent accountable.

    Ken is right – as far as he goes – restrict the Euro to a core of countries. Once the poorer countries get richer and benefits and taxes can be rationalised expand the Euro slowly. The farce that NF (appropriate initials?) highlights is akin to shovelling earth to find a goldmine, only to find the deeper you dig you eventually strike…. sh1t.

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  • charlie brooker says:

    You’ve got to admire his candour. It’s refreshing to hear politician speak this directly.

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  • general congreve says:

    Personally I have big problems with UKIP, as they have a Friends of Israel branch and principles aside, it doesn’t even appear to be purely pragmatic lip service for political purposes, as the party chairman is most likely a direct sympathiser with the state of Israel, if you know what I mean. I should point out that I don’t envisage an end to the state of Israel, but would like to see illegal settlements stopped and reversed and a pragmatic and just end to the conflict in Palestine. Something the current and all previous Israeli regimes have had no real interest in, so I cannot support them on moral grounds.

    That aside, Farage is right on the money here with the Euro. When Italy is borrowing at 6% to lend to Spain at 3%, and Spanish bond yields go higher on news of the bailout, because Spanish bond holders will be subordinated to the EU (i.e. if you’re a pension fund with spanish bonds and they go bust, you’re last in the queue for any payout), so its really frightened the horses. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

    Soros reckons the Euro won’t see the summer out, I think he’s right on that one. Then what for all those invested in Euro debt, like the pension and annuity funds? What happens to the stock market, again an area that pension funds are heavily invested in? The fallout from this is going to go global and a lot of people are in for the shock of their lives.

    Where’s HPC’s global economy bulls when you need some respite from all the doom and gloom? If only they would come back and reassure us it’ll all be ok soon.

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  • GC, how would the scenario of a total collapse in Euros work? The answer is im not sure it can. Ze German – Franco alliance might pull in their horns and let the PIIGS go, or the PIIGS might be forced to pull out themselves although to date its really all been about their political egos rather than commen ze sense, so that they have not “escaped”.

    So how will all the contracts be unwound if the Euro vanishes? How will people in German for example be paid, what happens to Euro denominated debt? What rate does it get converted at? If i have Euros outside the Eurozone, how can i exchange them and at what rate? I myself dont know and it blows my mind. As you know i have a not small amount of cash Euros, which i have hedged from the low 90s. But i remain convinced that eventually we will see the Euro – a slimmed down version of it – ratchet up, at least against the pound, albeit perhaps after some more downside.

    Does Soros – or anyone else – explain exactly what will happen and the mechanics of the Euro being abandoned by everyone?

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  • general congreve says:

    @6 – I would imagine the total collapse of the Euro would ‘work’ in a similar way to a falling building or sinking ship, i.e. it’ll be a right big nasty mess and the end result will not be pretty. Effectively there is no ‘work’ about it, what happens is the Euro ceases to ‘work’ and then chaos ensues.

    I believe the official term for such an outcome is commonly referred to as ‘disorderly default’. Which sounds a lot nicer than the grim reality of such a scenario.

    If rumours are true, then at least Germany and Greece have prepared with printing up their own currencies to stop the banks and ATM’s in the eventuality of wither leaving or the Euro ceasing to be currency at all. At least in that scenario old currencies can be rapidly reintroduced at a 1 for 1 swap with the Euro and then the chips can fall where they may with regards to exchange rates and some semblance of normalcy can subsequently be restored on the currency front at least (if countries don’t have contingency old currency banknotes ready, then I dread to think how bad things could get). However, on the matter of who gets paid what on outstanding debt obligations and euro currency, then I am absolutely sure there are going to be a lot of investors, including UK plc and a lot of little old men and women in the world who are going to get jack sh1t.

    I think Aesop’s Fable of the The Prize Bird sums up the situation well (the old ones and the simple ones are usually the best!):

    THE PRIZE BIRD

    On a farm there once lived a number of cockbirds, amongst whom one looked far better than the rest. He was not only bigger, but fatter, as well. His master, the farmer, called him a prize bird.

    The prize cockbird was very proud of himself. He was always boasting of his great strength. He would challenge the other birds to battle. In great fear, none would dare fight him.

    However, the truth was, that the prize cockbird was far from being what he made himself out to be. He looked bigger, because he walked taller than the others. He looked fatter, because he thrust out his chest and puffed out his feathers. If any other cockbird had cared to fight him, it would have been proved that the prize cockbird was, in fact, a great weakling. The prize cockbird got away with everything, simply because none dared to call his bluff.

    One day the farmer invited some of his friends to dinner.

    “I want you to roast that prize cockbird for tonight,” he ordered his cook.

    The cook went, and soon killed the prize cockbird. As he plucked off its feathers, and began to roast it, he grew more and more amazed. The cockbird looked small and lean, and quite unfit to eat.

    “I can hardly believe it,” said the cook to the maid, when she came to take the roasted bird to the dinner table.

    “Our master is sure to be angry, said the maid. Wondering what she would tell him.

    “You can say that his prize cockbird was nothing but a great boast but alas, a poor roast!” answered the cook, with a laugh.

    Moral:All that glitters is not gold..

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  • general congreve says:

    @7 – Typos …stock the banks and ATM’s in the event of either leaving…

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  • A default by Greece would jeopardise the 450bn loan in Euros to the Greek government. How they get away with that is a matter for negotiation, I believe.

    Maybe Greece could stay in the EU, and re-introduce the Drachma. It would help the political egos anyway. Alongside the egos runs greed. Italy will request a bail-out sooner rather than later. Time to snatch a handful of cash before taking the liferafts, perhaps. Cyprus wants 5bn, but that enormous amount is chicken feed in the EU scheme of things.

    The Euro was a magnificent dream, unfortunately the events worked out differently. Ken thinks a group of northern states could now form an effective trading bloc with a common currency. At this point, I think the idea could be worth exploring.

    …sadly there is no time. The examination of the Spanish banks’ books will almost certainly reval considerably more holes, judging from estimates made pre-June this year. Another 150bn euros seems like an average…Farage says 400bn, Spanish civil servants have hinted at another 20bn.

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  • Didn’t realise there was such a strong pro-Israel group within ukip. It’s a mess our politicains would do well to steer clear of. I like farage, he has more integrity and honesty than most other uk politicians, and agreeing with everything someone says is a tall order. On the balance of things, including support for Israel, I can’t see any other party worth voting for. Lab/lib/con have rightly balled it up over thelast 15 years.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    I like Farage, I like Red Ken, they’re agreed for once and both right on this, I’m happy.

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  • Latest reports say a “Redemption Pact” for the bailed out funds may be on offer soon, reports suggest Merkel may have agreed to “wipe the slate clean” and start again:

    “Italy’s premier Mario Monti told the Italian Parliament on Wednesday that he expects the Redeption Pact to be “on the table” at the EU summit, even if it does not come into force immediately”. Telegraph. I had hoped Germany had more backbone.

    Good to learn that UKIP supports Israel. They have a right to survive. The country isn’t much bigger than Wales! The only problem is the Arabs don’t like them….quite good at massacres of their own kids in Syria, of course, or Tripoli, Pakistan, etc. Iraq bombs killed 70 Shi’ite pilgrims only today!

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  • general congreve says:

    @12 – Don’t believe everything you’re told about poor defenseless little Israel Alan.

    Israel are quite capable of looking after themselves. They have one of the best armies in the world and an estimated 200 undeclared nuclear weapons, weapons that would assure MAD with Iran, hence no threat from Iran, unless you believe that Mad Mullahs [email protected] (The only the threat that Iran can pose with nukes is defending itself from western oil theft). Israel do not need our support to maintain their abhorrent ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.

    As for the Arabs massacring each other, two wrongs don’t make a right, so that does not excuse the plight of the Palestinians at the hands of the Israeli’s. Want to know why the Arabs don’t like them. Then this is worth a watch:

    http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-promise/4od

    Warning: contains historical scenes of Middle East terrorism – although it doesn’t contain a retelling of the disturbing Israeli cheese-wire decapitation of the motorcycle courier in my Grandad’s detachment when he was posted in Palestine. That said, the leading lady deserves the slap she gets from the IDF soldier at the end, as she’s f4cking annoying, so they have my support for that.

    Finally, here’s a map of US military installations in the Middle East.

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    Looks like they’re well positioned to keep a close eye on Iranian aggression.

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  • GC,
    When I was last in the West Bank, I stopped for a coffee within sight of the Wall. On cue, a BBC team rocked up. The cafe owner, who was in the middle of knocking 2 semis together complained his “restaurant” was being “intimidated” by the size of the wall. No restaurant facilities existed (like a big kitchen) and the single toilet was..smelly. It seemed to me like a put up job.

    In Bethlehem (yup, I’ve been there too) terrorist snipers targeted Christian houses, climbing on the roof to snipe at anything looking vaguely Israeli. Returning fire merits another TV episode where the “wicked” Israelis shoot at “innocent Christian children”. Its all propaganda.

    TV companies like propaganda. It helps them make “documentaries” which boost ratings; in turn these sell advertising slots.

    As for US propaganda and your analysis of Iran, I’ve thought for a while that the US interests are predatory. When I was in Amman (Jordan) 2 months back some local people agreed, hesitatingly. They didn’t trust the colour of my skin. I don’t blame them…….

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  • general congreve says:

    The cafe owner in question may have been hamming it up for the cameras, that doesn;t change the history of the creation of the state of Israel. As for the the snipers may have been taking pot shots at anything Israeli, you can’t invade a country and then vilify the populace for resisting.

    As for propaganda from the TV companies, these pictures of settler towns (construction of which is endorsed by Israeli parliament) built on stolen Palestinian land looks pretty real to me.

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    Just look at them, they can only be described as fortresses designed to intimidate and subdue their enemies. They’re not homes built with love for a happy life, they’re tools of oppression and domination, modern day castles.

    If I was a Palestinian watching this, knowing the world had stood by, even willfully supported this oppression of my people and the theft of their country, for over 60 years, I too would be reaching for my rifle or suicide vest to fight for my freedom, I’d have no other choice.

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  • general congreve says:

    A word of caution for the ordinary Jewish person, more so in the United States (I believe the UK to be mild-mannered and tolerant enough for this not to be a problem for UK Jews).

    I have been thinking on Israel’s relationship with the West and how many perceive the tail to be wagging the dog, in so far as Israel influences western foreign policy, especially in the US via powerful lobby groups like AIPAC (all presidential candidates that succeed have to go and pay lip service to Israel at this lobby’s conventions to get elected – Friends of Israel over here is another example), campaign contributions from powerful Jewish-owned companies (Goldman Sachs, JPM etc.) to winning presidential candidates and a disproportionate control, relative to population density, of major industry, especially finance and the media, industries that play a role in influencing congress and public opinion.

    Now, I am sure Israel and its supporters have every intention of influencing policy of the west for its benefit. However, the relationship is symbiotic, so the west may be more than happy for the tail to appear like it is wagging the dog. The west gets a front line beach head in the middle east to help secure the oil and Israel also acts as an attack dog for the west in that strategic area of the world. This beach head/attack dog, because of its history is not very popular with the rest of the world and deflects a lot of criticism from the rest of the west, as Israel are easily identifiable bad guys. What’s not to like for the West in this deal?

    So, what if the next generation of western elite are just biding their time, waiting for the collapse? When it happens, it will be very easy point the finger and get a p1ssed off and newly impoverished electorate, who always like simple answers to complex problems, to follow a simple message. What simpler message than, “Look at all these Jewish lobby groups who controlled our politics, look at all these Jewish financiers who broke our country while enriching themselves etc. etc. It is all there fault! they designed this failure, they bought us here!”.

    This sort of rhetoric is already easily observable in the comments sections of many financial and political websites, so the meme is well and truly out there already. The history of Jewish blame and persecution is already firmly established with expulsions throughout history, pogroms and eventually the holocaust.

    Now I don’t think for one minute we’d be looking at a new holocaust of the destruction of Israel, that will never happen, not by war anyway, due to Israeli nukes. But I could see life for the ordinary Jewish person in the west, especially America, being made a lot harder as a result of public opinion being manipulated to be turned against Jews in general. I mean stuff like Jews losing rights, losing jobs, having assets confiscated etc. This would be fueled new politicians capitalising, in conjunction with new non-Jewish media outlets, on economic collapse, Israel’s human rights conduct and easily identifiable bogey men like Jewish news media and political lobby groups that can be claimed knowingly led the west to disaster.

    It’s happened many times in history, I would be concerned it could happen again. Today the Muslims are the bad guys in western popular culture, tomorrow, who knows? Food for thought.

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