Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Know when to sell

A warning to all gold investors – don’t fall in love

So this Money Morning is a kind of note to self, a warning. I have come to, I suppose, love gold - or at least the idea of it, and the glorious, free society it offers at the end of the rainbow. But I shouldn't. It's just an investment. So be warned and take note: should we ever see that exponential final euphoric bull market phase, then come back and read this, sober up and sell. Having a thrown a wet blanket over you all, I should say that my big picture view for gold is that the end of this bull market is still not within sight. All the main drivers - monetary stress, deficit spending, debt, currency debasement, ballooning money supply, negative real rates and so on - are still in place.

Posted by general congreve @ 11:13 AM (1727 views)
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19 thoughts on “Know when to sell

  • mark wadsworth says:

    Good stuff, keep us updated when you start selling.

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  • general congreve says:

    @1. Thanks. Just wanted to restate the fact, via the medium of this article, that just like the flat I sold in 2007, I am not blinded by my investments, as some have previously tried to pin on me, and there will come a time to sell gold. Hopefully in exchange for cheap property from wiped out BTL-scum! 🙂

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  • GC thought you would be married to gold by now lol

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    GC, so at what point to you intend to cash-in your precioussssss for sterling? I hear conceptual art is all the rage these days; it’s where the smart money is.

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  • “It’s not just about an asset class rising in price. It’s about the breakdown of our financial and monetary systems. It’s about incompetence and perhaps even corruption in our bloated governments and central banks. It’s about, believe it or not, freedom and integrity”.

    Yes, I believe it – a lack of freedom & integrity. BTW, anyone fancy lunch with Cameron?

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  • alan – is that Sam Cam?

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  • would rather have lunch with Sam lol

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  • general congreve says:

    @3 – Very good, very good. Not quite, just a quick wipe clean with a tissue now and again. Good job it doesn’t tarnish 😉

    @4 – Yielding assets at bargain prices hopefully. One thing I am definitely not going to invest it in is economically illiterate sarky anti-bugs, as there’s a glut of them and their views are essentially valueless. 😉

    @5 – That’s one of the key sentences right there.

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  • Which is the bigger joke – MoneyWeek or The Express?

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  • UT – Express (but only by a nose)

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  • general congreve says:

    @9 – Actually I concur, follow Moneyweek’s recommendations at your peril. I just happen to mostly agree with one of their contributors views on gold.

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  • GC so many versions of your gold polishing spring to mind and none i want to revisit in my thoughts lol

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  • Gold seems to be at an ‘interesting’ point right now. About six months ago, Techieman warned of a possible top and since then gold has fallen back a bit with a lot of volatility. The usual bulls Zerohedge, King World News and Jim Sinclair are still confident that it will reach new heights yet. It will be very interesting to see where we are next year.

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  • i want to see what happens if someone lights a match in the North Sea within the gas cloud

    lol

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Mark 13, yes of course, it’s where I go when I need to stock up on mice.

    Mark 15, well, apart from all the poor people who would die and the billions of pounds in lost investment, environmental stuff etc, yes, so would I.

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  • who would die? there is no-one on the rigs, who cares about lost billions the BOE doesnt , environmental is just an excuse for taxes 1 decent sized volcano would see an end to any global warming

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  • QG thanks for the name check. To be fair had a couple of bites of that cherry one where a top looked sensible and another where it looked like it was sucking in all the folks. Dont get me wrong though i am not saying it (the bull) is all over, (i actually hope it isnt) but i wouldnt be surprised to see a test of the $1500 level to the downside. Nothing tells me its a screaming buy right now, and being wrong wont be hazardous to my wealth but i do think we eventually have GC’s spike.

    Where i differ is that we can have substantial falls, with the bullish funnymentals [sic] intact. At the end of the day the fundamentals are of little use at turning points as they always do and always will look rosiest at the top and most dire at the bottom. Look at how many people were predicting the end of the financial system when the S&Ps were @ 666, and even how many on here were getting excited about a crash just as a DCB became fact.

    I think you are right it will be very interesting to see where we are next year in all sorts of markets. Oh and by the way I want to let folks know i am nursing a short side unrealised loss in the US Markets, partly offset by gains in the FTSE. You are only as good as your last trade, and nobody is right all the time.

    If one thing has been learnt by the inexperienced permabulls, surely its that…. or is it?

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  • @Techieman

    “Where i differ is that we can have substantial falls, with the bullish funnymentals [sic] intact.”

    Actually, I agree. We’re seeing a perfect example of this in PMs from the bullish perspective. There is frustration and emotional exhaustion from some of the long term bulls. A recent example:

    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/3/24_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap_files/KWN%20Weekly%20Metals%20Wrap%203%3A24%3A2012.mp3

    What I was trying to get at when I said it will be ‘interesting’ is the reaction of the bulls if the gradual drift down hasn’t stopped. It’s difficult being wrong for years on end (and many HPCers should recognise that description.)

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