Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Future of House Prices?

UK housing market heading for 'lost decade', warns Collins Stewart

"Britain’s housing market is heading for a “lost decade” and Government aid to support the industry is based on “bunkum” projections of a property shortage in the UK".

Posted by alan @ 07:39 PM (2125 views)
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8 thoughts on “Future of House Prices?

  • From the comments section

    Pure heresy.

    How the DT could publish the views of this nut case Stewart is beyond me.

    Graham, I think you might be looking for another job soon.

    Falling house prices, how absurd.

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  • It’s all very well criticising “the northern buy-to-let boom of the last decade”. But those developments where prices plummeted were obvious basket cases from the start. They were generally built in poor locations, next to council estates or industrial estates. They were marketed to, and bought by, non-local investors. If you factor out all those silly developments, then you’ll find that for the ordinary buy-to-live-in terrace or semi, house prices up t’north haven’t fallen at all.

    “However, the Collins Stewart research claims the UK has been building double the rate of population growth for 20 years and is in line with the main European countries. It says 11,000 “hidden” homes are built every year that are not officially recorded in construction figures.”

    We know we haven’t built as many as Spain or Ireland. Comparisons with France aren’t helpful, because France is hardly the land of affordable housing either. France has tax disadvantages for overseas buyers (unlike the UK), so the market isn’t comparable. So let’s ignore the European data.

    There may well be an underestimate of 11,000 a year; but how big is the underestimate of immigration statistics? Official net migration statistics show 240,000 people a year arriving in Britain; but we’re only building 120,000 houses a year. Even if they all live four to a room, immigrants still put pressure on housing demand. The 2012 census will make for interesting reading as to how many people have really arrived since the 2001 census.

    We can throw away all those figures though, and just look at some easy to understand numbers. The average age of a first-time buyer has been rising steadily for at least the last decade. People are spending longer living in flat-shares. There’s your shortage.

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  • and close the italics.

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Yes Drewster, the 2011 census data should be very interesting, I believe it’ll be out by July.

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  • Second attempt at closing italics

    Yay! That’s set the cat among the Homey pigeons at the Torygraph.

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  • I suspect Graham Ruddick will get a good ticking off for this piece of heresy !

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  • Jack C, to some extent, this fits in with the cosy world of the Torygraph NIMBYS: “You see, we ave plenty of housing and there’s no need to build any more.”

    From the article: “Politicians and industry leaders have claimed the UK is building only half of the 240,000 homes it needs every year”

    The facts are, increase in UK population since 1945 = 17 million. Assuming that all these extra houses are needed to accommodate single widowed pensioners (the main driver of population growth was increasing life spans – immigration is in a distant second place, plus they tend to live several people to a house AFAIAA), that means 17 million new homes needed in 67 years = 250,000 homes per year.

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  • I should add…..
    There’s the UK, and then there’s London. I don’t know what will happen to house prices in Grimsby, and tbh I don’t particularly care. But in London the population keeps growing and wealth keeps flowing in, adding to pressure on prices.

    So Collins Stewart could be right about the UK in general, but not London or the southeast.

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