Friday, October 14, 2011

Still a long way to go…

House prices fall £5,000 in year to September

''House prices fell by 0.3pc in September, wiping just £594 off the cost of the average home, according to the latest LSL Property Services/Acadametrics House Price Index. This ends a two-month run of modest rises, but on an annual basis the cost of the average home has slipped by 2.3pc – or an average of £5,240 – over the past year. According to research, the average home in England and Wales is now worth £218,650. The largest monthly growth was recorded in Greater London, with a monthly increase of 1.1pc.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:06 AM (1978 views)
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10 thoughts on “Still a long way to go…

  • According to research, the average home in England and Wales is now worth £218,650.

    Methodologies aside, does anyone else find it weird how there can be two differing ‘official’ measures of average house prices … with over 30% difference between the two measures!

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  • “Still a long way to go…”

    Maybe, maybe not.
    According to the Nationwide average house prices adjusted for inflation graph on this website prices are the lowest since 2003 Q2 in real terms…

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  • Perhaps they are measuring just House prices without flats, mobile homes and holiday chalets etc..

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  • So for the last 12 months, it was better to rent. Good stuff.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Paul, they all calculate it slightly differently, for example Acadametrics, which uses HMLR selling prices, says that the mean is £230,000 and the median is £166,000 and the mode is £150,000 – £160,000. Nat & Hal only look at homes bought and sold with a mortgage (by definition), Rightmove look at asking prices etc etc.

    So don’t compare one index with another (or just rebase them all to 100, as PhD does for his regularly updated chart), just look at the YOY changes in any index – they are ALL now looking increasingly reliable, and that’s all that matters 🙂

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    @ Paul, those figures I just quoted relate to an older press release (Q2 2010), so they appear to be out of date.

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  • Paul,

    If these figures were only a few percent adrift, there’d be no issue, but it does amaze me how journalists parrot these fantastically diverse statistics without querying them..

    There are of course, different ways to arrive at an average – mean, median, mode etc – and there are also varying approaches to gathering data.

    For the purposes of creating meaningful benchmark, I would propose taking the median sale price of a three bedroom semi, after eliminating the top and bottom 5% of transactions (in value terms) as erratics.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    UT, I’m also in favour of the three bed semi approach, at least that way everybody knows what we are talking about. Apparently a third of UK housing is three bed semis and they all look pretty much the same all over the country, and the internal layout is usually more or less identical.

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  • @8

    In my city 3 bed semi’s can vary in price from <£100K to >£300K depending on location, size and style.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Phils, yes I know that.

    The location is a separate issue, and accounts for 2/3 of the difference between the cheapest and most expensive. Size wise, we are looking at +/- 20% probably, and as to style, that’s just the colour of the bricks, a fancy bit of soffit, whether there’s a bay window and if so, whether it’s right angles, round or a bit diagonal.

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