Thursday, October 6, 2011
September 2011 (seasonally adjusted)
Halifax House Price Index
Annual change -2.3% Quarterly change 0.1% Monthly change -0.5% Average Price £161,132
Posted by dill @ 08:08 AM (2225 views)
16 thoughts on “September 2011 (seasonally adjusted)”
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blinktoofast says:
To be fair to them, the non-seasonally adjusted price is up £300 or +0.2%, but they don’t bring attention to it
sibley's b'stard child says:
King: “Right lads, start-up the presses, the recovery’s in jeopardy.”
Still, can’t grumble with that. It should breach the sub-£160k mark soon at this rate.
By the way HPW, fancy revising that confident assertion that we’ll see no meaningful falls this year?
phdinbubbles says:
(All NSA, LR shifted back to account for lag)
khards says:
The psychological £160k barrier NEEDS breaking.
I have great hopes that once this level is breached the BTL and ‘might as well rent it out’ brigade will sell en mass as they will now see that their property is loosing money and will continue to do so for a long time.
little professor says:
@1 actually non seasonally adjusted figure is down £800 (0.4%)
phdinbubbles says:
Isn’t the NSA figure up £299 from £162,076 to £162,375 (table 11 at http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/2011/061011historicdata.xls)?
hpwatcher says:
By the way HPW, fancy revising that confident assertion that we’ll see no meaningful falls this year?
I’d love to, but not this month.
I don’t think -0.5% isn’t really going to help me much when I start putting offers in on houses later this year. Those EA’s are a VERY hopeful bunch – I was to see them scared, like in early 2009.
little professor says:
@6 quite right, my mistake
wdbeast says:
I am sorry to be cynical but the -0.5% is probably over reported leaving their “preferred” measure of three months still showing +0.1%.
This over reporting of -0.5% will allow them to cook the books over the next three months to keep the figures looking as if there is “very little movement”.
The giveaway is the sentence “We expect little change over the remainder of this year”.
They have already pencilled in the numbers!
financial planner says:
HPW EAs are terrified as we speak. Their sales volumes are 40% of where they were. They are at depression levels just like 2009. They don’t care about prices just volumes. They are terrified and they know they can do nothing about it. Sellers will take ages to budge and loans will not ease up. Thus years of losses and redundancies for big EAs.
Its not the EAs its the pathetic ‘sellers’.
mark says:
hey i think the psychological £100k barrier NEEDS breaking.
this country needs a 50% drop in prices
mark wadsworth says:
The annual changes are looking increasingly reliable, and as PhD’s chart shows, we’re gradually moving into the next downward leg. Albeit painfully slowly.
rantnrave says:
Financial Planner – there are more bullish comments posted on the EA Today website re house prices than anywhere else you’ll find online. EAs are on the whole in utter denial. To them, the crash has already happened and as soon as the banks start lending again we’ll return to double digit annual growth. In their eyes, the likelihood of that not happening is very small, but if it doesn’t, inflation is going to sort everything out in a couple of years (price inflation being referred to as the same as wage inflation).
Consider this too – on a personal level many EAs over 35 will have done very well from house price inflation. Any EAs under 35 will have never operated in a falling market. Put the two together and they’ll quite happily sit in the pot of boiling water together.
timmy t says:
EA’s need volume and there are a few key thing which drive volume:
1. Availability of finance
2. Cost of finance
3. Prices
4. Expectation of change in prices
1 and 3 make for low volumes, so they are reliant on 2 and 4. 2 is a fair point, IR’s are rock bottom and likely to stay that way for a while, but there is not too much appetite for debt right now. Their biggest problem is 4. They have no choice but to appear bullish so they can say that houses are still a good investment but I think we are finally seeing that opinion evaporate. Can’t blame them for trying though – what choice do they have?
hpwatcher says:
BOE’s QE 2 – of 75 billion – will more than boost the -0.5% back into positive territory…….
rantnrave says:
Did QE or ZIRP halt the collpase in prices though? QE2 in the US has provided little boost to prices.