Thursday, October 27, 2011

Is an export-led recovery still on the cards?

More than 20,000 high street jobs lost

More than 20,000 high street jobs have disappeared in the past year as the downturn in consumer spending sees desperate retailers cut posts, reduce part-time workers hours and in extreme cases close stores. The retail sector had 23,000 fewer workers in September than the same month a year ago, according to grim figures published today by industry body the British Retail Consortium (BRC). The steep drop contributed to a 0.8% fall – the equivalent of 5,780 full time retail jobs – for the third quarter as expansion by the big supermarket chains picked up some of the slack. "With consumer spending now in recession and retail sales volumes declining, this is the biggest drop in overall retail employment in the two years since we began this survey," said BRC director Stephen Robertson.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 02:52 PM (3719 views)
Please complete the required fields.



12 thoughts on “Is an export-led recovery still on the cards?

  • Shame they don’t give a regional breakdown of the figures. I suspect the southeast isn’t doing too badly compared to other parts of the country. There’s a clue in the article: “Andy Clarke, Asda chief executive, said there was growing evidence of a north-south divide.” In another source he says: “Spiralling petrol costs are piling extra pressure on households across the north where families are much more reliant on the car to get about.”

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark wadsworth says:

    What spiralling cost, IIRC, a litre costs about the same as it did three years ago.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Mark W,
    There was a high point in petrol/diesel costs three years ago, but it didn’t last long and the price promptly came down again. This time it’s a sustained plateau.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • what did oil cost 3 years ago?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • This time it’s a sustained plateau propped up by govt intervention. Sounds familiar…

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Eh? The average time spent commuting in the north is well below the south-east, for the obvious reason that it’s much easier to buy/rent a house close to work/amenities/anything that pushes up land values, because prices are lower relative to (average) local incomes – and the transport infrastructure copes better with the local demand. The average distance commuted might be low in London, but the average time spent driving to/from work (more slowly) is the longest of any region in the UK and probably costs more given the inefficiency.

    Commuters in the south-east are also more likely to use a train. How are fares doing?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • general congreve says:

    Well I think things are turning around where I am, one of the many closed stores has reopened as a ‘Brighthouse’ – Your new weekly payment store! 🙂

    It opened today with big fanfare, PA system outside, staff dragging people in off the street. It was full to the brim with potential debt monkeys checking out the range of leather sofas and unknown brand flat screen tellies that the merchandise mainly consisted of.

    A quick glance through the window at the price tags confirmed the deal was no money down then low weekly repayments. Forever! Interest rate at about 33% APR.

    As I walked off someone handed me a flyer for ‘The Money Shop’ – Got a bank card? Got a job? Get up to £200 cash for life’s little emergencies. At a punitive interest rate of course.

    Total debt enslavement in full swing.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • The oil price is a bit misleading. Firstly there are multiple benchmarks: Brent Crude, West Texas Intermediate, and lately also Dubai Crude. For the UK it’s obviously Brent which affects us, as the Brent field is in the North Sea. Secondly all benchmarks are priced in dollars, so you have to calculate out the dollar/pound exchange rate. If you’re comparing historical data (e.g. oil prices in October 2008), you have to look at the historical exchange rate too. Ultimately it’s easier to just look at the price coming out of the pumps.

    I can’t find a more recent graph, but suffice to say diesel prices have been above 139p since March (source: AA).

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark wadsworth says:

    Drewster, I was having a bit of a giggle that’s all, for sure it spiked three years ago, fell back and now appears to be plateauing a bit at teh same level as then (although your chart shows a spike), I’m pretty sure it’s been £1.35 a litre for months and months.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • It seems to me that the more credit there is in the world the bigger the crisis that the world gets into. Was the world a better place before credit became mainstream? Wouldn’t we be better of tolerating poverty as a society rather than the excessive debt that society is tolerating currently?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Since 1977 the UK has produced more oil than it’s imported, and while the gap is narrowing that remains the case.

    Yet througout this period petrol prices have always been high as compared to elsewhere. This seems somehow typical of the UK.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • MW,
    That graph ends in Jan ’11. If you read the text, I did say diesel has been at 1.39 or above every month since March.

    Bellwether,
    The price is set by global supply and demand. The fact that the UK produces oil doesn’t affect the price we pay. At the pump we simply pay the global oil price, plus the refining cost, plus taxes. Since our petrol taxes are higher than most in Europe, we pay slightly more for our fuel. This month unleaded costs 134.5p in the UK; around Europe the price ranges from 102.8p in Poland to 158.8p in Norway. In the USA, unleaded costs just 59.1p per litre.

    The benefit we get from having North Sea oil is that tax revenues and dividends from UK oil companies flow to the exchequer, and UK oil workers’ salaries are paid from oil profits too. In theory this means we need to pay less in tax than other non-oil-producing countries. Unfortunately the tax take from the North Sea is only about £6bn a year, or 1% of the £600bn total government budget.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>