Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Why did this happen in August 2011 ???

Looting 'fuelled by social exclusion'

Young looters from poor estates have nothing to lose and no reason to obey social norms, say experts.

Posted by doomdog @ 09:51 AM (2233 views)
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28 thoughts on “Why did this happen in August 2011 ???

  • Typical Guardian socialist-liberal rubbish.

    Going by the photographs of the rioters I have seen, many don’t seem to have integrated that well with life in the UK……the result of Labours irresponsible experiment in immigration and social engineering.

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  • Blair and Brown were also responsible for the riots in the 80s and 90s. Its obvius wen u fink abartit.

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  • Apparently it was caused by the death of Amy Winehouse. All the crack dealers are out of a job now…..

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  • come on guys…we have marginalised our kids…no propspect of property,no job…£4k to insure a car

    I don’t condone violence,but haven’t we been cheering on the same action during the arab spring?

    this country seems to have lost the plot

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  • taffee. The chaps in the Arab spring had rather more to complain about

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  • i do remember there being a rumour the labour party fueled the riots during the early 80’s, seem to remember a teacher in school saying this.

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  • @1 – “socialist-liberal rubbish”. So you don’t agree that it was “biographical availability” wot done it.

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  • Didn’t London win the Olympics on the back of the fact that it was marketed as a vibrant multicultural city, looks like it’s become just a little bit too vibrant & multicultural.

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  • oooooooh imagine if there are riots just before the Olympics, this would cause real issues and all that money we spent on the swimming pools etc

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  • oooooooh imagine if there are riots just before the Olympics, this would cause real issues and all that money we spent on the swimming pools etc

    Yes, but we have to get through the Notting Hill Carnival first – probably won’t be much left of London after that.

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  • general congreve says:

    Obviously this is terrible and I hate to see people lose their homes and businesses in the cruellest way and seeing some historic London buildings being destroyed (obviously not referring to Croydon Homebase). However, from an HPC perspective this should scare those foreign buyers out of London, not to mention plenty of domestic buyers. The last stronghold of HPI has been felled this week I believe. Coupled with other global and UK financial issues occurring at an alarming pace, a UK-wide property rout should be beginning shortly with any luck.

    I note that they left Waterstones alone. I bet HMV Group were begging the buggers to burn it to the ground so they could collect on the insurance loot! 😉

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  • general congreve says:

    @12 – If anyone has got plans to go to that, I’d recommend you cancel.

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    It’s not often I agree with you GC but you may have a point there. Were I an oligarch or somesuch i’d have second thoughts about plowing a few million bob into an illiquid asset in a quasi war zone.

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  • hello icarus, it’s been a long time. Biographical availability is a useful tool for explaining/predicting collective social movements and behaviour. Mind you, in this case they ought to somehow incorporate weather into their probability protocols. Hot weather is a proven human behaviour catalyst and these things always seem to happen in the summer. I’m not suggesting for a minute that it’s the cause but it has to be some sort of critical mass catalyst? Are you involved in that general field?

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  • GC @13 – those foreign buyers won’t recoil until there’s looting at Harrods, Harvey Nichols and Selfridges.

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  • general congreve says:

    @17 – I heard there was looting on Oxford Street yesterday. Besides, do you really believe that this will not put foreign buyers off in the slightest?

    As for the weather, the summer does bring the crowds out. I remember this was being discussed a couple of years ago on here, seems the global financial rescue put it off for two summers. QE2 ending and now this, coincidence?

    Chickens coming home to roost, 2009:

    http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/02/blog-chickens-and-roosting-21880.php

    Will you open fire on UK Citizens?, 2009:

    http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=108588&st=0

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  • hello flashy – no, I spend my time on economics and supplementing my income by betting on horseracing. I thought ‘biographical availabilty’ was more descriptive than predictive (predicting the ‘social movement’ itself or predicting who will join in once it gets going?). And would it predict/explain all of: London looting, the Arab spring and the citizens’ groups in Tripoli organising/arming to give Nato a hard time if it tries to control the city?

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  • Oxford St should be reasonably safe. There aren’t too many Comets and JD Sports shops. The amount of riot activity is directly proportional to the density of trainers and flat screen TVs available. Presumably as the number of shopping areas to target decreases, then it should be easier for the police to consolidate their numbers in the fewer remaining areas. This should then allow them to to watch the mayhem from a safe distance in greater numbers – make sure you’re not frail and walking past as you might get a baton in the back of your head!

    I’m still waiting for the keynesians to suggest the rebuilding and the extra overtime payments to the “police” should provide the extra stimulus we need to get the economy going.

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  • icarus, about 15 years ago or so they started to model it, in an attempt to expand its capabilities. They use a range of estimated probabilities, so it could in theory have been used to predict a range of events like the Arab spring. While it might predict, I don’t think it can reliably explain because so much of the input is subjective opinion. Do you really make money on the horses? That’s really cool.

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  • letthemfall says:

    “Typical Guardian socialist-liberal rubbish.”

    Too bleedin right hpw innit. Oh cheers, pinta Stella please mate.

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  • @HPW
    (Sorry, can’t resist)
    What exactly is rubbish about it? Surely it is an absolute no-brainer, as well as statistically demonstrable, that social deprivation is associated with crime and rioting? And what can you tell from the pictures exactly? That they are largely non-white, or what?
    N

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  • Flashy @21 – I’ve had a few good years at it but this calendar year I’ve been flatlining – though August-November are often the best months for me. Some stables’ patterns are changing and that’s a bit of a hiccup this year. But any market’s like that isn’t it?

    There seem to be a lot of academics and academic courses on gambling these days. They seem to like football.

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  • letthemfall says:

    I know someone with a good knowledge of stochastic calculus who applied it to betting on the horses. Apparently it worked for a while.

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  • icarus, over the years, I’ve met some very clever chaps who bet on the horses for a living. My obsession with probabilities and kinetic chaos should tell me to be cynical but most of these chaps seemed to have it well sussed. It’s often struck me that they have a more comprehensive knowledge and research set than the average hedge fund manager. I’d love to be able to tell people that I did that for a living. It’s kind of neo-romantic or something like that

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  • flashy – there are several ways to approach it. The simplest is to know your stables. Over the past several years you’d have made lots by backing all of a particular trainer’s 2yo fillies in certain types of races at ceratin times of the year. Or another trainer’s young horses in handicap hurdles at certain times of year. There are a few other similar trainer patterns too – all of them discernible for long enough to make real (as distinct from ‘would have’) profits. Of course all patterns can change – you have to keep in touch with what’s happening – but generally you’ve had a good run before the tide turns. Form itself is quite complex and anyone who masters it probably has more skills and better judgement than the average fund manager.

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  • Yes, the uk has social problems, but that is not an excuse to rip apart communities. A number of teachers who left the education system years ago warned of Generation Vex – a whole generation has lacked discipline in schools. As a result they now lack self-discipline and respect for their neighbours and communities.
    The cane was a bad thing, but when teachers lost the power to punish bad behaviour, we failed our children.

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