Friday, August 19, 2011

Tears of a clown…

UK house prices 'will hit all-time high by 2015' with average prices climbing by 14%

''Respected analysts the Centre for Economics and Business Research predict the typical home will be worth more than £200,000 by 2015, up from its current £176,000. Douglas McWilliams, CEBR chief executive, said the chronic lack of homes for sale is one of the main reasons that prices will start rising again. He said: ‘We do not expect a house price boom, but the housing shortage is likely to push prices gently upwards.’''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:10 AM (3223 views)
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20 thoughts on “Tears of a clown…

  • What is the track record for the Centre for Economics and Business Research like?

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  • SOLD!

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  • Pete Whittlesea says:

    Reader comments are unavailable :oD

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  • “Average house prices peaked at £191,200 in 1997.”

    Peaked in 1997?

    Credible report?

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  • CEBR quoted one of their clients as being HMG. Since removed from their website.

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  • happy mondays says:

    With shares taking a bashing & investors nervous, maybe property is a safe ish bet!

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  • ‘Average house prices peaked at £191,200 in 1997.’

    No credibility at all. Market peak was 2007. Dooohhhh.

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  • The government’s plan for eliminating the deficit involves a very small amount of spending cuts and a very large amount of increased tax take on the back of economic growth.

    It will not be lost on them now that sitting back and letting nature take its course is not going to deliver the expected growth.

    Cutting further however, is a difficult route, although getting serious about red tape removal (instead of paying lip-service to the idea) would allow a lot of dead wood to be cut. That needs a little political courage – for example, if the HSE was summarily abolished, would everyone miss it and want it back? – I doubt it..

    The funds for legal aid could be drastically reduced without great issue – the UK’s legal aid bill is several times greater per capita than in Germany.. And no-one really counts the knock-on costs of spurious litigation in this country – the saving would be much greater than the legal aid itself.

    And on that subject, why are compensation payments sometimes far exceeding a person’s lifetime earning potential – something wrong there too..

    But the elephants in the room are the welfare budget and housing benefit – and what better way to tackle those, then to get people off welfare and into building sites..

    ..and what the government really needs to take on board is that there’s no time for lengthy feasability studies, consultation periods and other delaying factors..

    – They need to get on with it..

    ..dotted round the countrtside can be seen many of the old wartime defences – pillboxes, mostly.. What few realise is that most of these were conceived, designed – and built.. – in the space of just six weeks..

    As Churchill was fond of saying – ‘Action This Day..’

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  • The Gwim Weaper says:

    With RPI running at 5%, 14% in four years isn’t that much.

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  • (My point of course – is that you can’t bank a continuing housing shortage into any prediction..)

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  • And on that subject, why are compensation payments sometimes far exceeding a person’s lifetime earning potential.

    ~ And how is that determined UT? ! suggest you rethink.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Uncle Tom: “the elephants in the room are the welfare budget and housing benefit”

    Not really – those are the things which the Dailymailexpressgraph whines about constantly. But in cash terms, the government gives TEN TIMES as much to “private” businesses as it spends in unemployment benefit and housing benefit. That’s the biggest elephant in the room, the government spends far, far more on such nonsense (PFI, windmills, bank bail outs, rent, consultancies – like CEBR, to return to Will’s comment at 4 – IT outsourcing, MoD procurement, Legal Aid, international aid, EU contributions and so on) than it does on eight million public sector workers (at least half of whom do important and worthwhile stuff).

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    UT, yes, I always used to accept the traditional method of splitting govt spending up into “NHS” “Welfare” “Defence” and so on, but a year or so ago the FT referred to an HM Treasury document which split it up by status of recipient, they did lots of little categories, but the main ones are

    Private businesses £280 billion
    Pensioners and welfare claimants £230 billion
    Public sector salaries and pensions £170 billion
    Overseas payments (e.g. EU)
    Interest payments less interest received £10 billion.

    I find this way of classifying it far more useful.

    For example the MoD budget can be split into salaries (half for MoD staff in Whitehall, half for actual soldiers) of about £10 billion and then £20 billion spent on wildly overpriced and badly functioning kit provided by private companies, aircraft carriers etc.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    And rather more than half of pensions and welfare is pensions, unemployment benefit in narrow sense is only about £20 billion and real cost of housing benefit is about £10 billion (you can ignore nominal transfers between DWP and local councils). That’s how I get my ten to one ratio.

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  • MW following on from your 10 to 1 comment – I’ve printed the DM article and intend to go into the local Ladbrokes/William Hill later today and ask what odds they will give me for house prices NOT to hit an all time high by 2015 – I’ve got £180 spare from a recent little windfall and I’m quite happy to place this as a bet.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Jack C, that sounds like fun. Tell us what odds they offer, assuming they’ll accept the bet.

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  • 12. Crunchy said…And on that subject, why are compensation payments sometimes far exceeding a person’s lifetime earning potential.

    ~ And how is that determined UT? ! suggest you rethink.

    11. uncle tom said…(My point of course – is that you can’t bank a continuing housing shortage into any prediction..)

    ~ Not so easy is it UT.

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  • The thing that amazes me about the CEBR’S endless barage of b**ls**t, is the complete myopia to the social conditions that will prevail if housing costs continue to rise. Furthermore, those conditions will inevitably give rise to unrest, as already proven by the riots (and don’t BS me that 30 years of “property owning” has nothing to do with the discontent). The have cake and eat it brigade seem to be brainwashed into a miscomprehension of their own folly ie exclusion equals profit, but profit doesn’t equal recriminations. They will soon learn. But it seems they’re incapable of taking a hint.

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