Monday, August 8, 2011

40% needed, we have sub 20%

Sharp fall in number of first time buyers

On surface, Solutions are ; Build more houses. Reduce number of people in UK. In reality, it is the vested interests that must be tackled. E.g. look at the Nat Trust and CPRE actions against the reform of planning. No-one in HPC should ever be a member of these two NIMBY champions. I would also suggest looking at migrationwatchuk..... for more clues. Here employers are the VIs.

Posted by voiceofreason @ 07:07 AM (2496 views)
Please complete the required fields.



25 thoughts on “40% needed, we have sub 20%

  • A few snippets from their site:

    Their message “Please ask your MP to say no to growth at any cost. ”

    Letter to send to MP’s

    “Please ensure that the planning system does not promote growth at any cost

    I am concerned about the likely impact of the Government’s planning reforms. While I recognise the need for our national economic situation to improve, no-one will gain if the quality of both the built environment and our countryside is sacrificed.

    The national planning policy framework will introduce a ‘presumption in favour of sustainable development’. The term ‘sustainable development’ may sound reassuring, but it becomes much less so when set alongside government calls – including from the Chancellor of the Exchequer in his Budget statement – for a default ‘yes’ to development. I agree that development proposals that are in line with local views and local plans should be approved but the term ‘sustainable’ needs to be more than just a fig leaf.

    The Government must be clear that the environmental, social and economic implications of a development are considered and found to be sustainable before planning permission is granted. This means ensuring protection of the environment and a better quality of life for all, rather than prioritising economic growth regardless of the consequences.

    The Prime Minister stated he wanted the coalition to be the Greenest Government Ever. The current planning reform will make or break this commitment. In order to ensure that our towns and cities become better places and our countryside is protected and improved, national planning policy should:

    • allow local planners to say ‘no’ to damaging and inappropriate development;

    • ensure the countryside as a whole is protected from damaging development – not just our best landscapes; and

    • give local planning authorities the ability to require the re use of previously developed land before building on greenfield sites.

    There is still time to influence the contents of the national planning policy framework.

    Please raise my concerns with the Minister, Greg Clark MP, to ensure we get a planning system that gives our green and pleasant land the protection that it deserves, and that champions truly sustainable development.

    Yours sincerely,”

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • ‘sustainable development’
    equity release
    lifestyle
    regeneration
    multiculturalism
    to big to fail
    one world solution
    timothy geitner, no dollar downgrade.

    ~ poppycockungood.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • When FTB numbers were at their ‘normal’ level of around 40% (as they were for many years..) I realised something was wrong with the stats..

    ..even after allowing for the dwindling number of ‘right-to-buy’ players coming out of the social rented sector, there seemed to be far too many FTBs.

    I realised then that many people were being counted more than once in their lifetime, and that the stats were only counting homebuyers who were buying with a mortgage and did not have an existing mortgage to redeem at the same time..

    ..so those who sold up and went to work overseas were counted as FTBs when they returned, and couples who split, sold, and rented before setting out again with someone new; were also being counted as FTBs for the second time..

    ..and if someone paid off their mortgage with an inheritance, and then decided to upsize and borrow to fund the purchase of their new home, they too were counted again..

    ..and those who sold to rent will also probably find themselves in the FTB stats when they buy again

    The upshot is that it is probably now the case that today, most ‘FTBs’ are second-time-around-ers. Given the low numbers today and the excess before, it is reasonable to conclude that the number of true FTBs is now extremely small.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark wadsworth says:

    UT, good points indeed. The whole FTB concept is woefully badly defined, occasionally we see stat’s on “average age of first time buyer” and it can be anywhere between 30 and 37 depending on who compiled them and how. One thing for sure, the average age is going up and the number of owner-occupiers is going down.

    From personal experience, I’d say that anybody who hit FTB age (late twenties) after about 2000 simply missed the boat, I know few people aged 40+ who don’t own and very few people aged less than 40 who don’t rent. So it wouldn’t surprise me if the average age of FTB (however defined) had increased by nearly ten years over the last ten years.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I think there is enough houses in the country as most people are housed and there is still plenty of empty houses, the problem is there are too many buy to lets that keep prices inflated so first time buyers can’t afford to buy and have to rent. The simple solution is to either ban people from being able to rent out houses or limit them to one house to rent out each or either tax them very highly the more houses they have. This will then mean people have to work for their money rather than just having the easy life at other people misfortune. It will never happen though as to many mp’s with houses being rented out making them richer and richer.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I maybe wrong but I thought there was a bit more science behind these stats now. I thought that to qualify as a FTB (and therefore get your hands on a special FTB mortgage deal) you had to be a genuine FTB and this is decided at mortgage application stage and then counted separately in the mortgage stats.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • UT,

    Yes agreed. The figures of 41% FTBs in London in particular seem extraordinary. For some of those foreign buyers, it might be their first purchase in the UK.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tt,

    Were the mortgage lenders ever so interested in snapping up genuine FTBs that they’d go digging deep into their credit history to see if they’d ever had a mortgage before? I can’t think why they would want to. All they’d want to know is that the applicant’s credit score was high enough.

    I think the deals for FTBs were just window dressing to make the FTBs feel special, and provided the applicant spared the lender the hassle of squaring off an existing mortgage, they’d probably offer it to anyone..

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • So … FTB just means “No Existing Mortgage” (NEM) )immediately prior to purchasing a property”?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Look out below, there’s a Ponzi scheme-a-collapsing…

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark wadsworth says:

    Khards: “Their message “Please ask your MP to say no to growth at any cost. “

    Indeed – regardless of the cost, these people say “No to growth”. Just imagine, young people being able to afford to buy houses on the same favourable terms as their parents and grandparents did, what a terrible thought! Clearly, all the houses owned by their parents and grandparents were built in a sustainable fashion and had no impact on our “green and pleasant land”, no sirree, not in the slightest.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Khards,

    Where did that letter text come from??

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Re average of FTBers is now 38. 13 years ago it was something like 25. Can we draw any conclusions from the round way those figures add up?

    How many of those 38 year old FTBs are buying because they’ve finally saved enough and have a high enough income? I reckon a lot of them are reluctantly throwing the towel in because they are getting close to the age of having a mortgage to still pay off after they are retired. If the retirement age became 75 (big if) then without a HPC it wouldn’t be long until the average FTB age was 48.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • drop prices and start building in empty non productive fields left empty for the pleasure of europe, give each person enough space in their new gardens to have a decent veg plot and fruit trees

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark wadsworth says:

    Mark: “give each person enough space in their new gardens to have a decent veg plot and fruit trees”

    Oh dear oh dear. Part of the reason that the UK was at the forefront of the Industrial Revolution was because the little people were driven off the land by enclosures etc, so they faced the simple choice of staying on the land and starving to death or accepting a low paid job in a factory which would at least keep them alive. And you want to reverse this and thus reverse the UK’s global pre-eminence as an industrial power? Self-sufficiency> Pah!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • maybe we should all become smarta$$ accountants lol

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Sorry – I thought khards was referring to the Telegraph..

    The Council for the Pickling of Rural England are just a nagging outfit with little clout.

    Whenever a form letter does the rounds to MPs, the MPs cobble together a standard response for their secretaries to mail back – and then ignore them..

    I know a couple of MPs quite well – if someone hasn’t the nouse to put together a properly worded letter without copying it from somewhere, or moans about a problem that the MP has no means to resolve or has influence to bear; then they pay very little attention to them, and delegate to their staff.

    If you want to impress your MP you should be polite, clear and concise in raising your issue, make clear what help you hope from him (or her) and be realistic about your expectations. You should also avoid political rhetoric, as that tends to make them very wary..

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Mark,
    Yes, a lot of the houses built 100 years ago (and more recently) have had a nasty impact on the green and pleasant. In a local pub here in Southampton you can see a map of the area from 1910. It looks lovely. Not a posh area at all, but there are farms, four cricket pitches, woods, interspersed with housing. Fast forward to 2010 and there is … housing and shops. And housing, and shops. And traffic. Not a blade of grass in sight – even the front gardens have been concreted over to make way for more cars. Urban sprawl of the most dispiriting kind everywhere you look. We need a strong spatial planning regime to avoid repeating these mistakes, which is why I firmly believe the government’s plannign proposals will be a complete disaster for our towns, cities and countryside.
    N

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • nick

    anywhere or anything our glorious political leaders get involved with regardless of party are doomed, they make a mess of everything, let the public speak up and plan

    I love the older houses with the bigger gardens, they make for a better life, more relaxed life and allow one to grow some veg and feel as if they are doing something constructive other than buying and selling houses, mews and apartments with twigs and purple walls

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • is doomed, not are doomed, sorry for crap english

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark,

    Yes – build more houses with gardens, instead of cramming them in all the time..

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark wadsworth says:

    Nick B, you highlight yet another example of extreme Home-Owner-Ist hypocrisy.

    Let’s say the government allowed a quarter of a million new houses to be built with lovely big back gardens for growing veg or kids to play football etc, let’s say eight to an acre. The DM crowd would wail about 30,000 acres of our G&PL being swallowed by greedy developers.

    But if the developers only get planning for 5,000 acres and the Lib-Cons succeed in keeping new resi down to 100,000, then the developers have little choice but to cram them in twenty to the acre with postage stamp gardens, and the NIMBYs then wail about “the horrible new housing – it would be better if it had never been built”.

    So it’s lose-lose for the next generation. And win-win for the Homeys.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Nick/MW,

    I’ve just had a thought, let’s say for instance there was a hypothetical village in total isolation. Taking NIMBY logic to its logical outcome, if no more houses could be built on the surrounding greenery then the only recourse would be to keep the local population static year on year. Of course, this runs contrary to human nature so what then…

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • crash bandicoot says:

    SBC, according to our friends at the ONS the UK birth rate (in 2009) was 1.94. Since it takes two to tango that’s a fall in population. You’d have to bring in some imigrants to keep the village fully occupied but they probably wouldn’t like it…

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>