Friday, May 27, 2011

Here’s the actual report, for completeness

May House Price Index

• House prices rose by 0.3% in May • On the three month on three month measure, prices rose by 0.6% • Price of a typical home in May is 1.2% lower than one year ago

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 09:20 AM (3054 views)
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8 thoughts on “Here’s the actual report, for completeness

  • I am disappointed with these figures, but not at all surprised.
    I keep a very close watch on my local market in the East Midlands (Market Harborough area).

    When a new property of interest comes to market I look at the last sold price of a property on http://www.houseprices.co.uk/ (this uses land registry detail of actual transaction prices).

    I then enter the last sold price into Nationwide’s House price calculator http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/calculator.asp , this then gives a current expected value of the house using Nationwide’s data at regional level.

    I have a good idea of whether houses that have undergone major renovation and if they have I ignore them, so the expected price calculated should be quite accurate.

    Without exception all houses coming to market in my area are 20% plus overpriced versus the Nationwide’s own figures, and some are as much as 35% overpriced when coming to market.

    So we still have the same market situation, overpriced property and very few forced sellers, hence very low volumes and stagnant prices.
    I would be most interested if anyone else could try the above valuation process for their area and post their findings.

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  • Note the difference between the Average UK House Price graph and the Real House Price line on the Long Term Real House Price Trend graph. There’s a definite second leg down on the latter.

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  • general congreve says:

    We’ve just got to be patient I think. The BoE government are not making the policy choices that will solve our debt crisis and crash our housing market. This is because they work for the banks (and coincidently me – because I own gold and silver – hat tip to Merv and the boys) and are protecting them at the expense of the public.

    So now we just have to be patient and wait until the whole dog and pony show blows up in a massive default/devaluation/inflationary sh1tstorm nightmare.

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  • general congreve says:

    @3 – The BoE and the government!

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  • Vindicated says:

    @wdbeast

    Ditto. Exactly the same picture here in SW Derbyshire. Completely demoralising.

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  • vindicated says:

    No idea where my comment went. If it does reappear, apologies for repeating myself.

    @wdbeast – seeing exactly the same thing in our area of the East Mids (SW Derbyshire). Houses coming on to the market which are valued at roughly 30% more than this time last year. Calculations based on a few houses which sold in 2010 and are back on the market now. Proper nipping my swede now.

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  • @1/5, I see it too. The asking prices are back at peak levels in many case where I am looking to eventually buy (Midlands). Yet prices are supposed to be about 20% less than the peak.

    I asked one EA why one house I was interested in is being priced at 230K when clearly it is only worth about 190k when you consider the sale price of houses nearby. The EA replied that this was a ‘current’ market price and not set by any sort of valuation. Clearly there is a disconnect between valuation prices and asking prices. I feel this sort of disconnect can only ever survive if there are lots of cash rich buyers around.

    One thing I am seeing is that there are certain properties that people are simply not interested in buying. They seem to be the ones in the gap that neither none-cash rich people can afford, or houses that cash rich people would never consider buying. I have seen these to be typically in the price range between 150k and 220k. Whereas houses between 250k and 350k, and up to 150k still seem to be selling.

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  • i pointed this out in the forum a while back and was accused of trolling. i live in Boston and there is a disconect between the bottom and middle of the market eg: 3 bed semi (2008 prices and less) 4 bed detached (2007 prices and higher).

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