Wednesday, May 4, 2011

For March 2011

House Price Index

Monthly: Down 1.1% Annual: Down 2.3%

Posted by dill @ 11:13 AM (5850 views)
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15 thoughts on “For March 2011

  • little professor says:

    That’s a meaty month-on-month fall for the LR index, and transaction volumes look to be stuck in the doldrums too.

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  • the number cruncher says:

    Very interesting lovely bear nibbles(if smugdog is reading)

    Regioanl Variontions: looking like a real crash in the North and Wales, lets hope it is contagiousness.

    Recorded sales (seosanal and non seasonal) this is very interesting again looks like the DCB is well over

    Average annual change in residential property price – again end of the DCB

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  • Not bad at all.

    I know most of you don’t like Acadametrics but believe it or not they used to be quite good. Using their old methodology, I would guestimate that they would extrapolate this to some pretty bad results (or good from our perspective) going forward

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Lovely jubbly, the wife will be getting the NW & LR reports tout de suite.

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  • Considering we are entering the time for the traditional “spring bounce” this (I hope) bodes well for prices shifting downwards. Bizarre headline on the BBC website this morning. “What will get us spending” under an image of an ageing boomer looking avariciously at a rail of clothes. The associated article was a bit more sober, discussing what constitutes consumer confidence, but still no meta-analysis of the history of the past ten years spending splurge. Missing the key point that profligate spending isn’t the norm, being careful with money is the norm we should be happy to be re-embracing.

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  • “I know most of you don’t like Acadametrics but believe it or not they used to be quite good. Using their old methodology, I would guestimate that they would extrapolate this to some pretty bad results”

    I don’t know about changes to their methodology but their latest offering looks quite promising:

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    Interest rate rises would be very interesting now.

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  • Just the fact that they use red for falling prices and green for rising prices winds me up. The timmy t price index would do it the other way round.

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  • The spring bounce turned into a spring flop. So it’s all down hill for the rest of the year.

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  • The next 6-8 months is vital – if this downward pressure crystalises we could see the market tanking. I just can’t see interest rates rising but this can only be seen as a positive. A huge and personally, unexpected drop…. i suspect the next few months won’t show drops of similar size though

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Unusually, HMLR’s figures for Y-o-Y drop are even more reliable that Nationwide’s figures from earlier on.

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  • orcusmaximus says:

    So the land registries figures have broken free from Nationwide. Elsewhere on the BBC website it reports that cash house purchases are up to 40% from 15% in 2005. Wonder if this is related?

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  • montesquieu says:

    Could this reflect both greater bargaining power of cash buyers and the greater incentive to drive a decent deal – spending real pound notes instead of borrowed money that is viewed more in ‘per month’ terms than as a total to be paid back?

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  • Excellent news for us on the Isle of Wight – Crash looks to be full steam ahead!

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Monty, broadly speaking number of “cash buyers” has stayed same for last five years, but total number of sales has fallen to less than half of what it was, ergo, as a %, cash buyers are on the increase.

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  • @ montesquieu,
    There are a number of buyers with big deposits out there. They will be wanting to get the best “bang for their buck” and not looking at monthly repayment comparisons.

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