Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Prices up, but down, in the Gummint index

House Price Index: January

I can't actually figure out what this says, but I think prices are down in the UK in January (by 1.4%), but up in England, and up overall on a year earlier (but only by 0.5%). More coffee and patience would be required before I manage to understand the implications. HOWEVER a fall of 1.4% in a month is almost double the worst fall of last year. I'm surprised this doesn't seem to be anywhere in the papers...

Posted by notyethomeless @ 11:46 AM (2085 views)
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9 thoughts on “Prices up, but down, in the Gummint index

  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    I’m sure this has been answered before but how on earth do they get an average price of almost £210k?

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    m-o-m fall 1.4%?

    That appears to be a very reliable index indeed, I’ve always said so!

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  • “During January 2011 prices paid for preowned dwellings were 1.6 per cent lower than the previous month , compared to a 1.9 per cent monthly increase during the same period last year.”

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  • notyethomeless says:

    Henry Pryor does a dissection of the different indices somewhere, but I believe it is partly because it does not include certain categories of purchase. For example, I think that auctioned houses are not included. This is probably explained under “mix of properties” or methodology somewhere.

    They do explain some of this at the back (under “Statistics”, page 9 in the PDF):
    “…the DCLG index uses expenditure weights, whereas other indices use transaction weights [I’ve no idea what this means!]. Consequently, the DCLG index is influenced by house price growth rates in the higher priced areas (which are currently in the South) where house prices – and therefore total expenditure on house buying – is highest. Similarly, regional rates of change in house prices determined by the DCLG Index are more influenced by the market for the higher priced properties (i.e. the demand for detached houses).”

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  • Looks like flashman may be wrong in predicting no HPC.

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Thanks NYH although that seems to me rather skew-tastic.

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  • notyethomeless says:

    Just looking at the Land Registry site, in their FAQ on what data goes in there. Again, I don’t understand, but…(from here: http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/kb/Default.asp?ToDo=view&questId=336&catId=32)

    The DCLG index is based on Land Registry data, which excludes certain categories. For example, it excludes residential sales that are “commercial transactions”, which I believe includes auctions and also ‘investment’ property, with a sitting tenant (I could easily be wrong). Essentially, lots of buy-to-let and cheap sales are excluded. Which is fine by me, as I’m only interested in trend, rather than absolute figures.

    “The Land Registry HPI is derived from all residential property transactions registered with Land Registry since January 1995, with the following exclusions:

    -all commercial transactions
    -transfers, conveyances, assignments or leases at a premium with nominal rent which are:
    – ‘right to buy’ sales at a discount
    – subject to a lease
    – subject to an existing mortgage
    – to effect the sale of a share in a property
    – by way of a gift
    – by way of exchange
    – under a compulsory purchase order
    – under a court order
    – to Trustees
    – vesting deeds
    – transmissions or assents of more than one property
    – leases for seven years or less”

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    …and yet LR gives an average of £163k

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  • BBC have posted their take on the figures – reasonably bearish. I seem to have trouble posting news stories on HPC, but you can see a quote from the article below.

    “At best, the market will remain flat this year, at worst it is heading for further falls, especially in areas where unemployment is rising sharply,” said Nicholas Ayre, a director of Home Fusion buying agents.

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