Friday, February 25, 2011

Could all be back to normal soon, but i bet prices at teh pump remain high.

Gold, oil retreat on rumour Gaddafi is dead

Gold slipped and crude oil prices dropped sharply from 2-1/2-year highs on Thursday on speculation Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had been shot, but other markets barely reacted to the rumour.

Posted by markj69 str05 @ 12:27 AM (1769 views)
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27 thoughts on “Could all be back to normal soon, but i bet prices at teh pump remain high.

  • general congreve says:

    Good, want to get some good value junior miners, was getting worried this current leg up would leave me in the dust.

    Funny that just because Gaddafi is dead, Benny and the Inkjets fiat is suddenly not quite as bad, very surreal world.

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  • I’m afraid there is no back to normal for oil; global production has been falling even before the crisis, and Saudi whistleblowers have revealed both that they no longer have significant spare capacity and that their reserves were overstated by around 40%.
    N

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  • I wondered what did that yesterday.

    In fact I was going to comment on the moneyweek article yesterday ‘Will Oil Reach $200 a barrel’ that the last time I saw a headline like that the price crashed very quickly – and so it did.

    Money on it the rumour was started by Spread Betting Company. LOL.

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  • hi STR and GC

    Well str – it LOOKs like the top may be in (depending on the retracement move after this initial down leg). i.e. the end of the 5th of C of P2 …of … well you get the idea. Pretty picture: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-De7lipEjez4/TWV83TtHBZI/AAAAAAAAIwA/kqH-XVroUlg/s1600/wlsh30.png [with the alternative that we have had a toppy 3rd and the sell off since is part of a 4th]. For various reasons i favour the former but am looking for upside to about 1318-20 on the S&P cash.

    [an update of Daneric is : http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gQGFmBQGT0k/TWbSMbrzspI/AAAAAAAAIw4/0WJlvuGvzZo/s1600/SPX5.png [note thats a 5minute chart]

    i have been short @ 1338 down to 1311, and have covered most of those waiting for a rebound. The thing is the FTSE doesnt look overly bearish to me, so not all of the ducks are lined up.

    I quite like what Rick has to say :

    in summary he is saying this [which i only agree with to an extent – i.e. i dont think gold is going to the moon nor oil, although i agree with Gold going higher – i.e. we had the shakeout when i last posted from Rick] :

    “Has the stock market made an important top? Are gold, silver and crude oil prices headed to the moon? We think the answer to these questions is “yes,” and that there will be exceptional opportunities for traders and investors ready to take advantage.”

    I also think that Rick is right when he discusses the impact of the Mid East here: http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/02/the-real-reasons-why-oil-rose-and-stocks-fell/

    Finally Mr Smart trades has a nice video, which puts the move in crude in perspective – he sounds pretty laid back, but probably works part time doing simpsons voice overs!!

    http://www.youtube.com/user/T1systems

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  • Thanks for that techieman, I’ll have a look at your links later this morning when I get a chance.

    Is your opening comment above referring to a top being in on oil or the stock markets ?

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  • Well str – it LOOKs like the top may be in (depending on the retracement move after this initial down leg). i.e. the end of the 5th of C of P2 …of … well you get the idea. Pretty picture: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-De7lipEjez4/TWV83TtHBZI/AAAAAAAAIwA/kqH-XVroUlg/s1600/wlsh30.png [with the alternative that we have had a toppy 3rd and the sell off since is part of a 4th]. For various reasons i favour the former but am looking for upside to about 1318-20 on the S&P cash.

    Useful but utlimately small beer.

    The important thing now is that the UK is in real, real trouble. I have never seen so many jobs drying up – the rate is alarming. I should imagine that Sentance will be out of BOE and replaced with a dovish type to pave the way for more stimulus.

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  • Str 2007 – Opening comment refers to Stock market in the US. My point is that the UK markets and potential the CAC dont look overly toppy, however it would be hard for the S&P to come off without Europe following suit. So ifs and buts and whys and wherefores but all we have are probabilities.

    HPW “small beer” perhaps but on topic at least ;). Actually i did say privately to STR a while back that i thought we were probably at the terminus of a downmove (stockmarket) with one more move to the upside to come.. To me it LOOKS like that upmove is over. Could i be wrong – of course, (it could only be part of that upmove) will it be to my cost? Absolutely.

    As for Gold yes i believe i mentioned that had i no gold, i would have been a buyer of nibbles with a bigger purchase if it went lower. Im sure i can “trawl through” the HPC website to find that should you wish me to prove it !

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  • As for Gold yes i believe i mentioned that had i no gold, i would have been a buyer of nibbles with a bigger purchase if it went lower. Im sure i can “trawl through” the HPC website to find that should you wish me to prove it !

    You have, several times on HPC, claimed to hold gold – it makes no difference to me whether you do or don’t.

    Perhaps you just jump in and out, never taking a long term view of anything. Not a great way to make money, in my view.

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  • if you say so hpw…. a bit tiresome really

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  • if you say so hpw…. a bit tiresome really

    Mr Deflation!

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  • Blimey mate you have the memory of an amoeba!!

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  • Not at all, I am just quietly laughing at what you have previously posted on HPC.

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  • ok i will bite – for some time now i have said that there is continuing deflation in the US and that is the threat. I have shown you the contraction in broad money (as opposed to M1, you seem to have a difficulty in differentiating the two) and obviously the administration’s have attempted to reflate by QE. Will they succeed? Arguable and i think not.

    For some considerable time also i have said relative to UK that the inflationists “have a point”, but once again you are only looking at the cost of goods and not the supply of money. As flash has outlined exogenous effects can cause prices to increase, but i would argue thats not inflation UNLESS its accompanied by wage pull. Yes it can cause inflation but only if people can charge more for their services. You yourself have said that “I have never seen so many jobs drying up – the rate is alarming. “. Fair point but if that is happening do you really think that people can demand wage increases? It really makes me smile to think that people really believe that the BoE MPC is a conspiracy. You would do well to listen to the press conferences with the inflation report, where questions are raised by the jornos implying the same and listen to the response. You wont of course because you have an inbuilt bias – for whatever reason i know not why.

    In both cases i have said that its realtively easy to argue for INflation, since that is the history of hundreds if not thousands of years, so the deflation is – if you like a 1000/1 shot. So to call for inflation is not big and not clever. But i think you will find i argued for it (deflation) before it happened. Where we differ is that i believe ultimately that the reflation wont work – but yes i am happy to admit in the short term (since March 2009 – when i called the low of stock markets actually) the reflation has been more successful than i thought.

    BUT what has the reflation been for – what is the purpose? The purpose is to kick start the economy so that assets can be sold back to the market by the BoE and so that the economy can grow. Has that been successful? Nope not in my view, although of course you might disagree with that.

    If it had been then -as i have also said – the BoE not tightening, would push me into the conspiracy camp that you belong in. However history and experience tells me thats not the case, if you think that and you base your life on it then ok, its your call.

    Will the UK go back into deflation? depends how you define it.

    ok so let me show you a comment on a recent article – comment was yesterday – and no its not my quote:

    Postion of another poster:
    “Quantitative Easing” which is essentially “creating money from thin air” will lead to price inflation

    Repsonse:
    Most of the money supply is “created from thin air,” by banking institutions. You can argue that a runaway money supply can be inflationary, in the way you suggest. But, even with the extra money supply created through QE (a drop in the ocean in any case), the growth in the money supply is currently anything but runaway! Quite the reverse in fact, it has been dangerously low because of the financial collapse and the subsequent famed reluctance of the banks to lend (which is what creates most of the money supply).

    Mervyn King is an idiot, for the reasons I’ve alluded to regarding his ridiculous claims to be helpless in the face of inflation because of factors supposedly (but falsely) “out of his control.” Nevertheless, if you read what he has said about QE and money supply, he rightly points out that QE has been a modest attempt to try and stop growth in the money supply declining to dangerously low levels because of insufficient lending by the financial institutions.

    If you actually look at the figures for money supply (rather than simply pontificating in ignorance about it), you’ll see that far from a risk of excessive (and potentially inflationary) growth it has actually risked going negative for god’s sake! There may be plenty of uncertainties in economics and the causes/cures for current inflation, but one thing that can be said at the moment with absolute 100% certainty (if you bother to look at the figures): current inflation is not being caused by excessive money supply growth (or the part of QE played in such) because current money supply growth is the opposite of excessive.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/23/bank-of-england-minutes-what-the-economists-say

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  • Techieman

    Cheers, I liked the Mr. SmartTrades video (wonder if Christian will have caught on by tonight ?)

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  • infact here is some support: [nice picture]

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/ir11feb1.pdf

    particularly the last page :

    “More recently, nominal GDP growth has picked up, but broad money growth has remained at low rates. This box considers possible
    explanations for these developments.”

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  • STR20087 – you are very welcome. yes i like it when he says dont get emotional :).

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    FFS HPW, you’ve had a similiar spat with techie only a few weeks ago. If you’re going to accuse him of something than at least substantiate your claims with proof. Although, i’m sure you’re far to busy to bother with anything trifling as ‘proof’.

    For all I know, you may well be right but do me a favour, trawl through the archives…

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  • Sibs – im not really sure what the accusation is!

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  • Sibs just to show you what i mean here is the US broad money supply chart

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts

    and here is the UK ones : http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/irlatest.htm then either d/load the powerpoint titled “Money and asset prices”: Slide 24 – Chart A on the powerpoint. There is an Excel workbook also but all that shows is the numbers reflected in that chart.

    Lets not let the facts get in the way of a good old pontification… shall we!!

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    “im not really sure what the accusation is!”

    I think it’s regarding whether or not you hold gold. To be honest, I couldn’t give a monkey’s although it seems ‘my boy’ has a thing for you. I guess you should be flattered.

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  • “The boy” has a thing for anyone who talks sense here.

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  • oh i see Sibs – well to be fair to him [god knows why i would be] he is right he has no idea whether i do or dont and its the same for him and infact all of us!!

    mind you if i had none this would be a very odd thing to say:

    “14. techieman said…
    oh mw – There is no such thing as an “expert” imho, for me its not even about being right more than wrong its about trying to maximise the values at risk when right and minimise them when wrong by quickly determining when you are wrong… and you are often wrong about being wrong :).

    But Rick has a pretty good track record, so I would be inclined to go with what he says… If I wanted to increase exposure I would do some more work and look for a target range to buy and try to see where confirmation of a new move up would be.

    Obviously its better to buy now than at 1400+ but whether its better still to buy below where we are obviously depends..

    If I had no gold I would be inclined to take some bits now with perhaps some bigger gulps if it goes lower, but Rick does give some areas even with a tight stop and then a reversal… and then of course theres the old exchange rate movements… now don’t even get me started on the “dollar collapse” arguments….

    At the end of the day i have constantly warned people to be careful – maybe thats patronising i dont know, but i meant well…

    Friday, January 28, 2011 03:05PM” – http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2011/01/blog-one-for-gc-buy-low-sell-high-32171.php

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  • Sibs i think hpw must be busy on his “trawl”er as we speak!

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  • You would do well to listen to the press conferences with the inflation report, where questions are raised by the jornos implying the same and listen to the response.

    I do, and I think King’s responses unconvincing – because he is pro inflation but trying to hide it.

    Sibs i think hpw must be busy on his “trawl”er as we speak!

    LOL – I have better things to do. Techie you have definitely stated in the past that the hold gold. I know that appearing to be in the right is very important for you, but face it…. Do you remember your claim, some time ago, about selling gold for 1,000 USD an ounce in 2009, when it only got to 1,000 USD in 2010…lol

    Although, i’m sure you’re far to busy to bother with anything trifling as ‘proof’.

    What proof, proof by whom, proof created by whom, for what purpose? You need to understand that there are lots of different kinds of proof – it all depends who is behind it and what purpose it is intended to serve. There is no such thing as ”de facto” proof – moreover finance isn’t a science, sentiment plays a far more important part.

    If everything came down to proof – and the measures – techie would not be on this board bothering with the likes of you and me, he would be in his 10 million pound mansion house, planning his round the world trip on his personal yatch. Thought of that one?

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  • HPW – ok here we go – yes i cant resist:

    1. Re Merv the swerve – thats your opinion to which you are entitled , but facts are facts and broad money is not playing ball with your opinion.

    2. Yes i have stated i hold gold because i do. As for when i got out of a substantial amount that was (for the last time) March 2008. If , again, you bother to go check your facts you will see that – as i said it was around $1,030 high in March of that year. I have said too that i held onto the rest basically because of S2R1. [after the high in March 2008 it went as low as …. well i am sure you can find that out for yourself]. Had i got out of it all (which i may well have done) then i would have bought some more per my comment above. Otherwise why would i say that?? Looking at it logically its only gone up 40% in 3 years – and even then in the meantime its gone down 40% from where it was. So in the grand scheme of things i dont know why anyone is excited…. but i take the point that MIGHT change.

    “MONDAY, MARCH 17, 2008

    Today the Gold Price Jumped as High as $1,029 on Fears the Entire World and Several Adjacent Planets Would Financially Melt Down”

    http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2008_03_01_archive.html

    Now if you want to call me a liar at least have the decency to check your facts first. In fact if you want to have a look at the archive you will see that i did tell people i was getting out just then. By the way this is how you spell R-E-S-E-A-R-C-H. Its comments like that where you are clueless that makes people realise what an idiot you are. “LOL”.

    As for proof you are absolutely right – unless i emailed you my account statement and /or gave you some other proof then i agree per 22. above that there is no proof, that i hold gold. Similarly we could all be living in fantasy land and all making things up. Absolutely.

    As for being on this board or not – well sorry but thats complete b0llocks. If i was worth more than 6 Bars i would still come on here. [which i am not by the way]. Why? because what i do is time consuming until i decide to pull the trigger, at that stage there is nothing i can do to MAKE the market go where i want it to. So the rest of my day is my own, and of course i can put in limit or stop orders so i really dont even need to look at the market. I do – its true put in alerts either side of the market since if something does move by a certain amount then i want to do more work and would trade more. As i have said i used to be in and out and job the market all day. Thats a young mans game and i have no inclination to be that stressed out. Believe me if one point on the FTSE makes or losses you £2,500 then you find it quite stressfull. I dont trade anywhere near that size anymore… but i used to.

    I will tell you a story that you may be able to relate to. Years ago, I knew two kids. We were discussing hopw much lawyers made – i think the number was £100 an hour (yes im going back a bit) . One of the kids said “if i made that much i would only work 2 hours a week” the other said “well i wouldnt i would try to work harder to become a partner in the firm and then i woud earn alot and could hopefully then reduce my hours”. The comment you made about a £10m boat (which wouldnt interest me at all btw) just illustrates what your position would be. People do stuff because they like it – when you have made “enough” its no longer about the money, but to make “enough” you have to have a different mindset.

    If you listen to uncle Tom for example you will know he is wealthy but he still comes on here. Same with Flash. I think its probably true with alot of posters actually. I dont claim to be the richest or even rich – if i wanted to though i would never have to take another trade, but i do it because (and this is clearly something that you cant understand) i love it. So all this “cant make money long term in my view” crap is exactly that.

    Carry on with yr pick n mix.

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  • sorry the per point FTSE move wasnt £2,500 [100 contracts] was £12,500 [500 contracts] . Although i did normally trade 100 contracts i did occasionally go up to 500, normally if i had some credit on the way up, or if i wanted to average a position before i started out. I know this might all be alien to you. These were short term jobbing positions, I wont go into the most i made or the most i lost.

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  • hpw the silence is deafening…. a person with even a semblance of manners would apologise.

    Not for being a d1ck – you clearly cant help that – maybe its genetic … who knows, nope for calling someone a liar when the facts prove otherwise. Still it just about sums up the person you are.

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