Monday, February 28, 2011

– 0.2% MoM – 0.9% YoY

January Index

"The data for January shows a small growth in monthly house prices, with a movement of 0.2 per cent. This is the first time in five months that the figure has been above zero. This brings the average property price in England and Wales to £163,177."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 11:00 AM (5739 views)
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32 thoughts on “– 0.2% MoM – 0.9% YoY

  • Big Apologies!! That should read +0.2% MoM

    Sorry

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  • It is a 0.4% drop when not seasonally adjusted

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  • PhD, that chart looks nicer every time you update it.

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  • Obviously I’m going to stop updating it if it starts going the wrong way. I’ll be off to bury my head in the sand somewhere.

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  • Interesting breakdown of transaction volumes per price bracket on page 13. The biggest drop of in volume is in places around the ‘national average’ in the brackets 100-150K and 150K-200K. However, the more expensive houses seem to be selling. Perhaps somebody middle aged on the middle to top of the ladder doesn’t care if prices go down because they have so much equity, and the jump up is cheaper. The fall in prices might get their deposit down from 50% to 40%, but that still gets fantasic mortgage deals.

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  • Apologies again: there isn’t a 0.4% non-seasonal drop – they adjusted December’s figure to £162,897, hence the ‘rise’. Time to bury head in sand.

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  • I’ve re-plotted with the back-adjusted prices for the LR going back to Dec 2008 (as far as I could find). It doesn’t look as good 🙁
    Hopefully the Nationwide will cheer me up tomorrow.

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  • PhD, it looks splendid, that’s our DCB over with at least, you won’t be needing any sand in which to bury your head.

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  • Sadly, a lot of people I know who have large amounts of cash are now buying houses and moving into BTL.

    The BOE strategy of low interest rates, is working – in that it is forcing people to spend – buying and letting offers a far better yield that the miserable rate offered by banks. Inflation is now doing the filthy work of the Government.

    I am still watching the market, although it seems rather static at this point – so I would have expected a drop rather than the modest increase.

    I don’t see much to be positive about just yet.

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  • the number cruncher says:

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  • Don’t think we’re quite through the deadcat bounce yet.

    I am trying to post a graph of HPs which has been compressed to the same size of the lifecycle of a bubble chart. The line matches almost exactly! If anyone could enlighten me how to add images here though – I deal with this sort of thing at work all the time and have to say that HPC is the trickiest site I have ever come across to add images to!

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  • @10 – hpwatcher

    What happens when houses are not such a good investment? When interest rates on savings accounts rise above 2%?

    Surely you would want to sell up your BTL and put that money in the bank because the 2%+ rate of return at the bank will be better than the lousy 3.5% gross (Before agents commission, repairs, maintance, insurance, time + travelling etc..) that rentals are achieving. And as prices drop this yield will turn negative.

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  • @hpwatcher – appreciate that, but what if the image is sitting on my desktop?

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  • @14 khards

    Exactly.

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Meh, it’s all fabricated. Obviously.

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  • little professor says:

    rantnrave – upload the image to imgur.com – it will give you the HTML code you need automatically (choose the one that says “HTML Image (websites/blogs)”)

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  • 14. khards
    What happens when houses are not such a good investment? When interest rates on savings accounts rise above 2%?

    I think ‘when’ is a very important word. To be honest, I just don’t think UK government – and by extension BOE – will allow that to happen – they will keep on QE’ing to keep interest rates low. They see higher interest rates as something likely to push the country even deeper into recession and to be avoided at all costs.

    So what if a few savers lose some money? These guys see that as a price well worth paying – hence the propaganda coming out of BOE about the dangers of the nasty and non-existent deflation!

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  • @14 Khards – I move my savings each year and have yet to get less than 2.3% after tax. Does that put me in the minority though?
    @18 Little Professor – Will give it a try, ta!

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    RNR, that’s heartening news. Where do you have your savings now?

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  • The theory…

    Actual Halliwide data

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  • IT WORKS! Cue mad cackles and bolts of lightning…

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  • And strange looks from colleagues…

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    RNR, that is also splendid but now tell me where do you have your savings?

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  • @26 MW – Natwest online saver. 2.89% (before tax). Instant access and unlimited withdrawals. Signed up for it last November.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    RNR, that sounds rather good. Her indoors has been a bit lax with all this, but now that guarantees are increased to first £85,000 per depositor (if I understand correctly) that makes a saver’s life a bit easier.

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  • @28 MW – Satander are currently offering 2.90% with unlimited withdrawals, which means I could better my current offer by a whopping 0.01% (0.008% after tax!). As with all these deals, you get one year with the bonus and then it’s bye bye…

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  • funny how the graph mirrors the last property crash, this one seems to be dragged out much more, this is a long term crash, very slow and painful

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  • I save with Zopa, get around 8%, yes there are risks involved – but the returns are pretty good and i have facted the potential loses into the rates i set. I recommend it…

    In regards to the charts, we should expect to see a month here or there were prices bounce a little… but the overall trend in my opinion is down. Coupled with the VAT rise (when we all feel it properly), petrol and the other 15 tax rises that hit us in April… and the public sector cuts we again see from April… we should see a downward trend for the remainder of the year (especially second half of the year)…. especially if we start to see interest rates go up!

    Rantarave looks good – scarily accurate…. on your predictions when should we see significant drops in the market? does it depend on Interest rates?

    The data doesn’t scare me today, i am getting used to it but we have to stick to what we believe… i believe prices are too high, and supply isn’t a short term issue… affordablity is keeping the market going as unemployment didn’t rise anywhere near as high as we expected… but we aren’t out of this recession yet.

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  • Land registry only includes properties sold and full value, meaning it excludes auction properties and properties sold below “market value”

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  • has anybody noticed that decembers land registrys figures have been revised down from -0.2 at £163.814 to -0.8 at £162.897 thats why the january +0.2 rise at £163.177 dosnt tally with the year on year suddenly going negertive to -0.9 in january although december was up year on year at +1.0 ? i thought the land registry were acurate.

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