January 2011 Archive

Sunday, January 30, 2011

LVT-for-businesses has more loopholes than a sailor's knot

Telegraph: Landlords and charities exploit 'bomb-site tax' loophole

A surge in the number of charities and charity shops occupying buildings across the country is partly down to a loophole in law that means charities pay dramatically reduced business rates. Laws introduced in 2008 meant landlords had to start paying business rates on empty properties. However charities get an 80pc exemption from these rates making them a very valuable tenant for a landlord’s whose property would otherwise sit empty. Since 2006 there has been a 39pc increase in the value of tax relief claimed by charities against business rates. In the year to March 2010 the total was almost £1bn, a rise of 11pc on the previous year. “Landlords are saying please come in and make use of the property to get the relief and I will give you a nice little donation. That is happening.”

Posted by drewster @ 07:05 PM 4 Comments

From mid-Jan 2011 (are we heading back to a dip like April and May 2008, or flatline?)

Guardian: UK house prices (interactive chart)

House price tracker: Nationwide and Halifax base their figures on properties they have agreed mortgages on, while the Land Registry index - introduced in October 2006 - records all completed sales. (click Next for chart...).

Posted by rental john @ 12:55 PM 0 Comments

UK Housing market in the doldrums

Express: RETURN OF NEGATIVE EQUITY LOANS AFTER HOUSE PRICES DIVE

The slump in house prices has meant the return of negative equity mortgages for the first time in 18 years. More than three million customers of major lenders like Halifax, Lloyds and Cheltenham and Gloucester will from February get the chance to move house even if they are trapped in negative ­equity. The last time this type of mortgage was offered was during the 1993 housing market ­recession when 1.5 million lived in homes worth less than their mortgage...................An estimated nine per cent of UK home owners are in negative equity and 18 per cent have too little equity to move.

Posted by jack c @ 12:44 PM 8 Comments

Mortgage lenders taking a practical view on applicants finances

Telegraph: Mortgage lenders penalising couples with children

Slightly obvious as you have to use your hard earned money to raise the little darlings until they are at least 23+ these days, its why most 4 bedroom detached houses are owned by couples with no children. So if you want a big mortgage for a big house don't breed.

Posted by enuii @ 12:41 PM 5 Comments

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Average houses are slightly too expensive!

Reuters: Housing shows few signs of gaining momentum - Poll

House prices could gain 1.7 percent in 2012, but analyst forecasts again betrayed a strong sense of uncertainty, ranging from a 10 percent drop to a 5 percent gain. On a scale where 1 is extremely undervalued and 10 is extremely overvalued the economists gave UK house prices a median 6. The average house price in December stood at 162,763 pounds, according to Nationwide Building Society -- a level economists still feel is slightly expensive in relation to Britain's poor economic fundamentals.

Posted by miken @ 05:04 PM 7 Comments

Was there heavy snow in 1957 as well? (sorry I born in '58)

New Statesman: How likely is a double-dip recession?

A quarter of negative growth is common but there hasn't been a double-dip since 1957.

Posted by rental john @ 12:39 PM 0 Comments

More proof of Mortgage Application Fraud

BBC: Apprentice star Christopher Farrell sentenced for fraud

He admitted altering P60 forms and payslips and creating fake documents to ensure his clients' mortgage applications were successful - thereby achieving his monthly target. In one instance, he made an application for a client with a £40,000 salary which showed he earned £120,000 a year.

Posted by markj69 str05 @ 11:38 AM 0 Comments

Lessons from History (2004)

Bloomberg: Mozilo Predicted U.S. Housing Collapse as Fed Overlooked Risk

"Former Countrywide Financial Corp. Chief Executive Officer Angelo Mozilo warned as early as 2004 of a possible housing-market collapse while the Federal Reserve overlooked the threat a year later, according to documents released by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission".

Posted by alan @ 10:14 AM 2 Comments

Friday, January 28, 2011

Nationwide pulls out of areas where 'different people' live

853: ‘Proud to be different’ Nationwide abandons SE London

Nationwide announced the closure of all 7 of it's branches in South-East Inner London. The closed branches are Blackheath, Catford, Greenwich, Lewisham, Peckham, Walworth and Woolwich. Customers were written to today. The South-East Outer London branches of Beckenham, Bexleyheath, Bromley, and Eltham all remain open. Nationwide referred to the "transaction patterns" as a reason for closure. All of these branches are very busy, often with queues out the door. A spokesman said: "What we are noting in the urban conurbations is a growing use of alternative channels and people who live in the cities using the internet more than those in rural communities." These areas contain side-by-side some of the most deprived areas (e.g. Ferrier Estate), and the wealthiest (e.g. Blackheath), in England.

Posted by mr tull @ 08:12 PM 0 Comments

And the closures start

Liverpool daily post: Retail sector pain in the city as HMV and GIVe close stores

Fashion retailer GIVe shut the doors of its Liverpool One outlet earlier this week, while music chain HMV is closing its Bold Street store on Sunday as part of the first wave of a programme to shut 40 shops this year.

Posted by mark @ 07:50 PM 10 Comments

“David Cameron is totally contradicting Shapps”

Moneymarketing: A house divided

Prime Minister David Cameron and housing minister Grant Shapps are in a tug-of-war over mortgage policy. Shapps is focusing is on long-term stability in the property market and a gradual reduction of house prices in relation to wages while Cameron has called for a return to “respectable lending” from banks to get the market moving again........Jonathan Cornell (Consulting director Jonathan Cornell) says “Shapps is looking at a long-term sustainable industry. We are looking at it from a short-term, grim survival point of view.”

Posted by jack c @ 04:49 PM 9 Comments

Cameron says pay off billions of debt

SKY: PM In Davos - 'UK Must Kill Off Debt Spectre'

"The Prime Minister said: "To get there isn't easy. We can't just flick on the switch of government spending or pump the bubble back up". I assume he also means the housing bubble!

Posted by alan @ 04:45 PM 2 Comments

Where would we be without these nebulous wealthy foreigners?

Evening Sub-Standard: Foreigners 'will boost London house prices'

It's normally MW that posts the late Friday afternoon laugh-along piece from the Standard, so I thought i'd get there first. It really isn't worth subjecting yourself this doggerel but if you insist the synopsis is thus: Estate Agent makes totally unsubstantiated claim that wealthy foreigners will boost the London market by 30% over the next four years. And everyone lived happily ever after.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 04:05 PM 5 Comments

Talking the talk

Telegraph: Davos WEF 2011: Banks to be a smaller part of UK economy, Cameron says

“The tragedy of the last decade was that growth was based on too narrow a basis of our economy,” he said in comments after a speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos. “75pc came from financial services, housing, government spending and immigration. That’s not a sustainable model.”

Posted by dill @ 02:13 PM 5 Comments

Tick tock tick tock..

Bloomberg: Moody's Says Time Running Out for U.S. as S&P Cuts Japan

Moody’s Investors Service said it may need to place a “negative” outlook on the Aaa rating of U.S. debt sooner than anticipated as the country’s budget deficit widens.The extension of tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush, the chance that Congress won’t reduce spending and the outcome of the November elections have increased Moody’s uncertainty over the willingness and ability of the U.S. to reduce its debt, the credit-ratings company said yesterday.

Posted by rob @ 02:12 PM 0 Comments

One for GC - Buy Low sell high?

Rick Ackerman: Correction in Gold Nears a Key Target

"....And yet, from early December’s high at $1432 to yesterday’s $1310 low, the loss so far has amounted to just 8.5 percent. Granted, it’s been worse for some owners of mining shares, which have declined by a little more than 17 percent, basis the ARCA Gold Bugs Index. But even that falls shy of the 20 percent standard that is often applied to distinguish moderate corrections from truly ugly ones." Rick is a long term Gold Bull.... so there are as ever a number of questions. is the top in? is the correction (assuming it is) gone far enough?

Posted by techieman @ 01:55 PM 61 Comments

Anyone for a nice cup of tea?

Guardian: UK consumer poll finds 'astonishing collapse' in confidence

'A poll of UK consumers has revealed an "astonishing collapse" in confidence that fuels fears that Britain is heading for a double-dip recession. Nick Moon, of GfK NOP Social Research, said sentiment among consumers was reminiscent of the worst period in the recession of the early 1990s. He said: "January's eight-point drop represents an astonishing collapse in consumer confidence. In the 35 years since the index began, confidence has only slumped this much on six occasions – the last being in the midst of the 1992 recession."

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:52 AM 20 Comments

Dangerous Hogwash apparently

Bloomberg: Conservative Austerity Idea Is Failing

Sorry, fiscal austerity doesn’t work. For evidence, look no further than the U.K. This can’t be good news for the U.S. political right, whose mantra has been: cut spending, put a lid on deficits, and growth will improve. All sorts of good things, it is claimed, will spring from a turn to austerity that stops all this stimulus nonsense and prevents the Federal Reserve from doing more quantitative easing. Reductions in spending, according to a theory known as Ricardian equivalence, will do no harm because lower borrowing will automatically lead to higher private spending. Plus, of course, there is the notion of crowding out, meaning that reining in the public sector leaves room for the private industry to step in and all will be well.

Posted by rob @ 11:51 AM 0 Comments

A trip back to uk housing in the 1930's

Pre-war-housing.org.uk: THE WORKING-CLASS OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSE OF THE 1930s

An interesting website for those who are interested in the history of UK housing housing subsidies and housing (Financial Provisions) Act 1933 In the United Kingdom, housing policy in the modern sense was born after 1919 when central government began a movement to involve itself actively in the provision of housing for working-class people. Afterwards, 'the role of council housing became one of the major pivots around which other aspects of policy were arranged as opposed to leaving matters to local authorities and private enterprise to determine

Posted by khards @ 11:31 AM 1 Comments

Very interesting article

Fortune: Japan downgrade: The beginning of the end?

Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi said this week that his country must fix its budget problems or face a debt crisis that could trigger a global depression.

Posted by mark @ 08:51 AM 8 Comments

Here we go again

Kent News: Struggling property market creating 'accidental' landlords

Getting Déjà vu. The surest sign of a drop in prices is on the way - hooray! Are we going to get a yo-yo of Home-owners putting properties on the market or renting them depending on conditions - they could always drop the price...

Posted by the number cruncher @ 08:29 AM 20 Comments

Fixing the economy is easier without having to pander to nimby homeownerist voters

Bloomberg: China Approves Property Tax Trials in Two Cities to Curb Prices

China approved property tax trials on some housing in Shanghai and Chongqing. It will also raise the minimum down-payment for second-home purchases. The new Shanghai tax rate is 0.6% for all taxable housing. In Chongqing, only homes bought at more than twice the average price will be taxed, with units purchased at more than four-times the average taxed at 1.2%. Property tax revenue will be used to build more low-income housing. Levying property tax on individual home buyers can guide them to make “rational” decisions, the statement said. Beijing has long discussed introducing a property tax, to be paid every year by homeowners, as a way to discourage speculation.

Posted by drewster @ 12:38 AM 3 Comments

Won't somebody think of the children?

Daily Express: PLIGHT OF ‘SECOND STEPPERS’ STUCK ON HOMES LADDER Read more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/225676/Property-Plight-of-second-steppers-stuck-on-homes-ladderProperty-Plight-of-second-steppers-stuck-on-homes-ladder

HOME owners are struggling to climb the property ladder, leading to a bottleneck which keeps out first-time buyers, one of Britain’s biggest mortgage lenders warned yesterday. A combination of falling house prices, a drought of mortgage funds and a shortage of first-time buyers means it is difficult for “second steppers” to trade up. Many with growing families are trapped in small first-time buyer homes because they are unable to raise the average of almost £50,000 they need to move on, said Lloyds TSB. And the knock-on effect means first-time buyers at the bottom of the chain cannot find properties for sale.

Posted by drewster @ 12:32 AM 20 Comments

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Buy now - repent later!

BBC News: How to be a first-time home buyer

If you are buying a home to make money over the short term then do not buy at the moment. If, on the other hand, you are buying a home to keep you warm and dry, and to give you privacy and self determination, then any time is a good time (OMG- really!)

Posted by amadeus @ 10:59 PM 0 Comments

All indicators are down

Sharecast: Dramatic fall in number of houses going up for sale

The articles statistics reveal that as house prices fell 0.5% in January, the number of sellers coming to market fell by 5.4% and the number of new buyers by 9.5% with sale prices falling to 91.9% of the asking price. The only figure going up is the average time on the market up by 1 month to 3 since Decembers survey.

Posted by enuii @ 08:43 PM 6 Comments

Foreigners buying up all the best land - surely there must be a way to prevent this?

Telegraph: Don't sell land to expats, warns director of Phuket Land Office

The director of the Phuket Land Office in Thailand has implored local people not to sell their land to non-islanders. ''I would like to tell Phuket people, don't sell your land to foreigners. Keep it for sale to Phuket people," he said. He was concerned not only by the growing number of foreign buyers taking interest in the island, but the number of Thais and Thai companies from other regions. Over the past few decades, the idyllic island has become increasingly popular with foreign buyers. “I want Phuket people to keep their land for their children... and their children’s children. If they sell it all, where will their children live?” Indeed.

Posted by drewster @ 07:51 PM 9 Comments

Stuck on the bottom rung

Press Association: Homeowners 'unable to trade up'

The typical first-time buyer stays in their first home for four years, meaning many of those looking to buy their second property now will have bought their first one when house prices peaked. Since this group bought their first home, the average price of a starter property has fallen from £148,001 to £119.960. The situation is made worse by the fact that 95% mortgages were still widely available when this group bought. As a result, it is estimated that 9% of second steppers are in negative equity and a further 18% have insufficient equity in their property to make a move.

Posted by little professor @ 07:40 PM 4 Comments

Broken chain of title cases haunt this housing market

Reuters: The Ibanez case and the housing market catastrophe risk

People who bought, defaulted and were repossessed have now repossessed their homes after court cases. This works retroactively, so the door is now open for other repossessed 'homeowners to try to get their houses back. And buyers of repossessed houses should worry that they may not have proper title and could lose their properties, or be unable to sell them. Many people won't buy any house now unless the title is completely secure, since they too may be unable to sell later on. Mortgage payers could well start defaulting if they suspect that there's a problem with the title - even if they aren't opportunists they have to think they may be paying for something that's not theirs - and they could end up with a free house. A HPC catastrophe??

Posted by icarus @ 04:12 PM 7 Comments

The lost art of stating the obvious enjoys a welcome revival.

Houseladder: Mortgages will be 'hard to come by'

An increase in the amount required for a deposit on a house may make mortgages harder to obtain in 2011, it has been suggested. The ability to put a 25 per cent deposit down on a property could make all the difference for people wanting to borrow money for a home purchase in 2011, an expert has claimed. Paul Holmes, chief executive of Firstrung, thinks although they will be affordable, mortgages will be hard to come by in 2011. He noted that a price hike in deposits is likely to occur as the year progresses, adding: "We have seen a brief flirtation with ten per cent deposits, I think they will go in 2011 for the most part, the normal mortgage will be a 20 per cent deposit."

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 03:39 PM 4 Comments

Outbreak of commonsense in Spain

Property In Spain.net: Spanish court rules repossession clears mortgage

"BBVA sued the borrower to reclaim 28,129 euros ($38,582) of debt outstanding on a 71,225-euro loan after selling the property for 42,895 euros. Under Spanish law, mortgage lenders have a claim on all a borrower’s assets and not just their home, El Pais said. BBVA plans to appeal, it added. The judge ruled that the house’s fall in value was a direct result of the financial crisis that stems from financial mispractice and it was "morally repellent" that the bank should make additional claims on the borrower, the newspaper said."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:26 PM 19 Comments

The commentators aren't fooled by such crass shroud-waving...

Telegraph: Lenders challenged over first-time buyers

Blah blah blah help FTBs blah blah get banks to lend more blah blah average age 37 blah blah blah Shapps blah blah blah CML. Or words to that effect.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 12:13 PM 5 Comments

Credit given to anyone who asked.

Belfast Telegraph: Bank gave shopkeeper €31.8m for development

Mr McConnon was a shopkeeper who had never previously engaged in development "of any shape or size" and there were issues as to how it came about that the bank had approached him, not vice-versa. One of the largest estate agents in the world had also provided valuations beyond what would be reasonably expected, he added.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 12:08 PM 4 Comments

Financial Tsunami warning..

BBC News: Japan credit rating downgraded by S&P

Rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) has downgraded Japan's credit rating from AA to AA-, citing Japan's worsening debt situation for the move.

Posted by uncle tom @ 11:12 AM 21 Comments

When The editor's away, the B-team come out to play...

Daily Express: HOUSE PRICES FALL FOR SEVENTH MONTH

House prices have fallen for the seventh month in a row after both buyers and sellers stayed away from the market. The average cost of a home in England and Wales dropped by 0.5% this month to stand at £153,600 - 2.2% less than in January 2010, according to housing intelligence firm Hometrack. Potential buyers continued to sit on their hands in the face of house price falls, and uncertainty over the economy and future interest rate rises...

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:44 AM 6 Comments

Good start to 2011

HomeTrack: Sluggish start for housing market in 2011: Concern over higher interest rates to keep demand subdued

"n January 2010 demand stood at -2.7%, a sharp contrast to today’s figure of -9.5%. This suggests that the housing market is facing more fundamental underlying issues than the usual post-Christmas slowdown."

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:33 AM 9 Comments

Hometrack: -0.5% MoM, -2.2% YoY

Reuters: House prices fall 2.2 percent in January

House prices in England and Wales fell for a seventh month in a row in January, dropping 2.2% from a year earlier, property data firm Hometrack said. Prices slipped 0.5% on the month, following December's 0.4% decline. Over the last six months, Hometrack's survey has recorded a 26 percent fall in demand, with a drop of 9.5 percent in January alone, suggesting the housing market faces more fundamental problems than the usual post-Christmas slowdown.

Posted by little professor @ 12:29 AM 13 Comments

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Well Worth a Listen

BBC News: Homes but no Loans

Gone to Columbia posted this last night, I've just listened to it and it's worth listening to. So I've posted it again.

Posted by str 2007 @ 08:29 PM 16 Comments

Martin warns his five million readers that rates are rising

MoneySavingExpert: If you want to fix your mortgage soon, do it sooner

The cost of fixed rate mortgages is rising in the short term, anyone considering a fix in the imminent future should get their skates on. We are sitting on a ticking time bomb in the mortgage market right now. Those who want to fix need do so now. [The full text is more nuanced; but lots of his readers won't look beyond the headline and the first few sentences.]

Posted by drewster @ 04:15 PM 6 Comments

I liked the comment: 'let loose the printers of war...'

The Economist: A shock and a salutary lesson

THE decline in Britain's fourth quarter GDP of 0.5% was a nasty shock for the markets (in the US, that figure would have been reported as an annualised 2%) and a reminder that economists are pretty hopeless at forecasting. Often, the most startling numbers are revised on second estimates - but it is hard to see how that can be turned into the expected 0.5% increase.

Posted by rental john @ 03:43 PM 0 Comments

But... but I thought house prices could only go up???

Express & Star: Property investment ‘in decline’

"House price falls and the mortgage drought have led to a steep drop in the number of people who think property is the most reliable long-term investment, research has indicated. The proportion of people who think bricks and mortar is the best home for their cash fell by nearly a third during the final quarter of 2010, according to the Association of British Insurers (ABI). Only 34% of people now rate property as the best long-term investment, down from 49% in September and the lowest level since the ABI first began collecting the figures in September 2008."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 03:04 PM 5 Comments

Questions to which the answer is "No"

City Wire: First time buyers: time to take the plunge?

Ray Boulger, of mortgage broker John Charcol, said: ‘If you are settled and expect to remain in your home for a minimum of four years, and you have a 10% deposit, now is a good time to start looking. Don’t buy expecting to make a quick profit in two or three years. The good thing about buying in this market is that house prices are not moving and you can take your time and not be rushed into a decision,’ he added. Boulger, who has a good track record on forecasting what the residential property market will do, is more sanguine about house prices than other commentators who are predicting significant falls. He believes that house prices will be steady in the first half of this year, but could pick up in the summer as consumer confidence returns with house prices showing a 2% increase

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:15 PM 16 Comments

Is this guy for real?

Yahoo: Inflation could reach 5pc within months

The Governor said that although there is much "unhappiness" focused on the high rate of inflation there was a "misapprehension" in some quarters that the MPC "could have prevented the squeeze in living standards by raising interest rates over the past year to bring inflation below its present level".

Posted by mark @ 11:49 AM 9 Comments

This isn't just HPI; this is super-duper HPI

Estate Agent Today: Six solicitors on trial after 'dishonest' valuer pleads guilty

Andrew Baillie, prosecuting, said the solicitors had sold the properties to each other, ramping up the prices before applying for the mortgages. Mr Baillie said: “This is not an 80% mortgage or a 90% mortgage but, taking all of these loans together, it was the equivalent of an 866% mortgage.” He said that by the time the lenders realised that the properties were worth a fraction of what they had been told, it was too late: “The money had been distributed, a very substantial part of it sent abroad and the banks were left to whistle for their money.”

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:18 AM 4 Comments

Steve Martin on credit

Dshort.com: The Housing Crash: Blame It On Saturday Night Live

A skit on an American show 'Saturday Night Live' that pipped the top of their property bubble. (Note alternate video link at the foot of the page). Now then what has Rory Bremner been upto recently?

Posted by sureseam @ 10:49 AM 2 Comments

"BBA's figures underline the subdued state of the UK property market"

BBC Business: Bank mortgage approvals drop 10% in 2010

The number of mortgages approved for house buyers by the UK's main banks fell by 10% in 2010. The British Bankers' Association (BBA) says its members approved just 400,000 mortgages between them. That meant the number of approvals was at its lowest level in 11 years, apart from 2008. The BBA said unsecured lending, such as credit cards and bank loans, was also depressed. "Mortgage demand was weak throughout the year," the BBA said.

Posted by jack c @ 10:21 AM 2 Comments

2 - 0 - 7

BoE: MPC Minutes

Six members of the Committee (the Governor, Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher and David Miles) voted in favour of the proposition. Three members of the Committee voted against the proposition. Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale preferred to increase Bank Rate by 25 basis points and to maintain the size of the asset purchase programme at £200 billion. Adam Posen preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5% and increase the size of the asset purchase programme by £50 billion to a total of £250 billion.

Posted by dill @ 10:21 AM 0 Comments

Time to revise the figures yet?

Telegraph: Don't believe the merchants of gloom

"If economic data comes as a shock it is usually because it is wrong. And so it is likely to be with those fourth-quarter GDP figures, which are implausibly weak. So disregard the wall of sound based on the presumption that the economy shrank in the final quarter by 0.5 per cent and focus on the signals that we can actually trust". The next report is out in May, it should be positive - then watch IRs rise!

Posted by alan @ 10:05 AM 3 Comments

Government starts secret housing review

Planet Property: Planet Property

The government is undertaking a behind closed doors review of housing supply in the UK. The review is being led by Oliver Letwin and will be the first to address the vexed question of how to build more homes since Kate Barker’s review in 2004.

Posted by the planet @ 09:40 AM 1 Comments

Officials say trend shows no signs of slowing

Las vegas sun: 23 percent who lost homes to foreclosure could afford payments

“They are looking at the last 30 to 40 years of their life and feel it doesn’t make sense to have that kind of debt hanging over their heads,” Searby said. “It’s about their quality of life and that all they are going to pass on to their kids is debt.” That scenario describes one Las Vegas resident who took part in the survey. Lee, who didn’t want to use her last name, said she plans to walk away from her $1,700 a month mortgage even though she can afford the payment. Lee said the value of her home that she refinanced about six years ago for $235,000 plummeted from $270,000 to $80,000 today. Since then, she has retired from her federal job and had her husband leave her.

Posted by mark @ 09:23 AM 1 Comments

But, I thought everyone paid asking price?

Houseladder: Housing market 'faces bigger factors than snow'

It has been said that the lack of available mortgages and the potential for negotiation on price could have a big effect on the property market. There are factors which are going to have a more major impact on the housing market than the extreme weather at Christmas, an expert has suggested. Helen Adams, managing director of FirstRungNow.com, commented that the issue currently having the biggest effect on the sector is a lack of mortgages. She predicted property prices will remain flat, but advised potential buyers to consider their tactics carefully if there are signs of change. "If prices are slightly depressed or dipping, it is a good time to negotiate to get a better price for a house and get onto the market definitely," Ms Adams said.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:21 AM 3 Comments

For the record

FT alphaville: A sudden rise in Britain’s debt-to-GDP figures? Blame the banks

"Welcome, RBS and Lloyds, to the PSF figures. Your stablemates include other bailed-out British banks like Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley. According to the ONS, Lloyds and RBS will add some £1,300bn to the level of public sector net debt, which is rather more than the £130bn the Croc and B&B added. So a big welcome, also, for the new British debt-to-GDP figures: - at the end of December 2010: • net debt of £2,322.7 billion including interventions, equivalent to 154.9 per cent of gross domestic product • net debt of £889.1 billion excluding interventions, equivalent to 59.3 per cent of gross domestic product"

Posted by dill @ 03:33 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Express offers instant antidote to Mervyn's depression talk

Express: HOUSE PRICES ‘SET FOR £10,000 RISE THIS YEAR’

HOMEOWNERS will see their properties rise in value by almost £10,000 this year as the market recovers, housing experts predicted yesterday. A shortage of good homes coming up for sale, low interest rates and higher rents will boost property prices by five per cent, they say. This would send the cost of the average home through the £200,000 barrier.Signs of a resurgence are already there, according to..........................................

Posted by jack c @ 11:47 PM 16 Comments

The way it is now

BBC: Homes but no loans

Homes but no loans. Despite the threat of a new slide in house prices and rising levels of negative equity, the number of property-buyers having their homes repossessed has declined over the past year. But now many economists predict interest rates will rise in the course of 2011, fuelling fears that Britain's housing market could be facing a double dip.

Posted by gone-to-colombia @ 10:57 PM 0 Comments

Speaking near Jarrow, Mervyn King says its almost as bad as the 1920s

Telegraph: Bank of England chief Mervyn King: standard of living to plunge at fastest rate since 1920s

Speaking near Jarrow Mervyn King proclaimed to a hushed audience that British households faced the biggest squeeze in living standards since the 1920s, families will see their disposable income eaten up as they “pay the inevitable price” for the failures of others. King emphasised that workers’ take- home pay would end the year worth the same as in 2005, the most prolonged fall in living standards for more than 80 years. He then finished by saying he was unable to offer any imminent hope of a rise in interest rates in coming months and that “those who behaved prudently” would be among the biggest losers and with average take-home pay falling by 12 per cent during 2010 the Bank “neither can, nor should try to prevent further falls in lining standards.

Posted by enuii @ 10:39 PM 4 Comments

Sacking the MPC is necessary

BBC: Mervyn King says pay squeeze necessary

the Bank of England governor said the current high inflation rate was necessary as the UK economy adjusts to higher commodity prices and becomes more competitive. He said inflation was likely to rise further to 4-5% in the coming months, before falling back sharply from 2012. And he implied that the Bank would thwart attempts by wage-setters to keep up with the above-target price rises.

Posted by cat and canary @ 09:30 PM 24 Comments

Good time to start dieting

Cnn: Inflation? No problem ... if you avoid food

Food prices may be a bigger issue in emerging markets like China and India, where fears of runaway inflation have actually led central banks there to start raising interest rates.

Posted by mark @ 07:26 PM 0 Comments

US prices in some cities still make renting a smarter choice

Fast Company: Does owning a house really make sense?

Infographic comparing the cost of renting to that of buying. It's an oversimplification, but basically compares number of years rent to cover the average price house. I just did the calculation for our house and it's around 30 years.

Posted by notyethomeless @ 02:06 PM 3 Comments

Fix-up; look sharp.

Independent: Are your mortgage payments about to go through the roof?

'If you haven't reviewed your mortgage product recently you may unwittingly be throwing away thousands of pounds. Borrowers sitting on their lender's standard variable rate (SVR) may think they have the lowest monthly repayments possible, but that isn't necessarily the case. Not all lenders' SVRs are competitively priced; there could well be be cheaper fixed-rate and tracker mortgages available.'

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 12:28 PM 16 Comments

Give us more regulatory power, c'mon.

Telegraph: FSA 'needs more power to protect consumers', says chairman Lord Turner

Two years after the worst financial crisis in living memory the FSA is to start a debate about measures it could take to protect consumers. A spokesman for the FSA said: “The debate will be about the types of things we do, different product regulation. Rather than waiting until lots of consumers have had to make complaints, can we take action earlier?” After being widely blamed for its part in failing to avert the banking crisis, the FSA is to rethink its historical “light-touch” approach to financial regulation. It will look at measures including banning certain financial products and capping fees being charged on others. FSA chairman Lord Turner is expected to argue the regulator needs more to power to protect consumers.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:25 AM 3 Comments

Double Dip Here We Go

BBC News: UK economy suffers 0.5% contraction

The UK's economy suffered a shock contraction in the last three months of 2010, figures have shown.

Posted by wdbeast @ 09:40 AM 55 Comments

More down bubble pressure

Mortgagestrategy.co.uk: Lenders will lead moves to ditch interest-only products, says AMI

Prepare to dive ... "Lenders will spearhead a reduction in interest-only mortgages, not the Financial Services Authority, says Robert Sinclair, director of the Association of Mortgage Intermediaries."

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:39 AM 1 Comments

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

City AM: UK subsidised by City: report

LONDON contributes far more to the Exchequer than it receives in public spending, a report will say today. The capital is estimated to have made a £1.4bn net contribution to the public purse in 2009-10, according to new research published by the City of London Corporation. London’s contribution is forecast to rise substantially by 2015-16 with the financial and business services sector a core driver of growth. “This report demonstrates London’s ongoing importance for wealth generation at a time when the government is attempting to reduce the overall UK budget deficit and promote growth across the economy,” said Stuart Fraser of the City of London Corporation.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:37 AM 6 Comments

Front loading of fees

Mortgagestrategy.co.uk: Which? hits out at lender fees

So they're making a packet of the spread but still .... "Mortgage providers are charging their customers a total of 39 different types of fee, claims research from Which? Money. It says the number and level of fees has gone up since the financial crisis, with four in five two-year tracker mortgages for up to 90% LTV charging over £990 in set-up fees in 2010, compared to one in five in 2007."

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:33 AM 0 Comments

Monday, January 24, 2011

Damned if they do; damned if they don't.

Mortgage Strategy: Wrong time for MMR, says CBI

(Article courtesy of Jack C) Sir Richard Lambert, outgoing director-general of the CBI, used his leaving speech to say it is the “wrong time” for the housing market. He says: “The MMR is being driven by the Financial Services Authority rather than the government, but this is not the right time in the house building cycle to be making mortgages harder to obtain.” click here Lambert’s comments echo those of housing minister Grant Shapps who claimed the MMR was a “step too far” and MP George Mudie who accused the FSA of perpertrating a “reign of fear” over mortgage regulation.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:42 PM 7 Comments

I'll believe it when I see it!

Reuters: Bank's Sentance: MPC should focus on CPI not growth

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee now needs to focus on its main inflation objective, and not worry too much about trying to forecast growth, Bank policymaker Andrew Sentance said on Monday. Skip related content

Posted by mr g @ 08:56 PM 2 Comments

Those TV shows have ruined it all

Cnn: They did what to that house?! Remodel horror stories

You've heard of McMansions, but what about Frankenhouses? These are homes that have been "renovated" to feature things like pipes running through living rooms, bedrooms strung together like garlic cloves, and fluorescent floors. It's scary what people do to their homes.

Posted by mark @ 06:41 PM 2 Comments

Speech by Andrew Sentance at the European Policy Forum

BoE: Setting UK Monetary Policy in a Global Context

"In my view, the MPC needs to steer a middle course when it comes to global pressures on inflation. We should be prepared to look through genuine one-off shocks. But when it is clear that global inflationary pressures, coupled with a substantial decline in the exchange rate and reasonably healthy growth of domestic demand are all contributing to a sustained period of above-target inflation, then the time has come to act. As I have argued in recent months, if we do not start to raise UK interest rates gradually soon, we risk having to do so more aggressively in the future – which could create a big shock to business and consumer confidence further down the track."

Posted by dill @ 06:36 PM 3 Comments

Roy Keane cuts asking price of his house by £2m (check it out!) January 24,

Planet Property: Planet Property

News reaches us that Roy Keane has reduced the asking prices of his Hale mansion to £7,500,000 after listing it in December for £9.5m.

Posted by the planet @ 05:34 PM 1 Comments

Not HPC - but enjoyed reading this so much I just had to post...

The Telegraph: The World is sinking: Dubai islands 'falling into the sea'

The islands were intended as the ultimate luxury possession, even for Dubai. But the World, the ambitiously-constructed archipelago of islands shaped like the countries of the globe, is sinking back into the sea, according to evidence cited before a property tribunal.

Posted by rental john @ 04:44 PM 0 Comments

MPC may start raising interest rates as early as March 2011 (Simon Ward - Henderson GI)

Fundstrategy: MPC may start raising interest rates in March, says Ward

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may start raising interest rates as early as March this year, according to Simon Ward, the chief economist at Henderson Global Investors. The minutes of January’s MPC meeting, which kept rates on hold again at 0.5%, are released on Wednesday. Ward says if these show that Andrew Sentance received more support among fellow MPC members for a rate rise, then the first hike could happen as soon as March. “Either rates will rise soon or they won’t at all,” says Ward.

Posted by jack c @ 03:07 PM 13 Comments

No bonus cash for the London EAs

Bloomberg: Barclays Said to Plan Bonds for Banker Bonus Payments

Now Barclays payout in cocos.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:42 PM 0 Comments

Stuatz Assetz - "we still forecast house price growth of five per cent for 2011"

FTAdviser.com: House prices grow 1% in 2010 to £195,804

The average UK house price in December was £195,804, up £9,286 since the start of 2010 and down by nine per cent since the peak of the market in October 2007. House prices grew by one per cent throughout 2010, and reached a 23-month high of £201,860 in July, data from the Assetz house price watch has shown. Assetz house price watch compiles monthly average figures taken from five of the major house price indices to offer a more accurate picture of house price trends: Halifax, Nationwide, RightMove, CLG House Price Index and LSL Acadametrics.

Posted by jack c @ 01:20 PM 12 Comments

More pent up lack of demand

MyFinances.co.uk: Rents fall for first time in almost a year, figures show

"The cost of renting a property has fallen for the first time since January last year, new figures have revealed. Data from the British Property Federation (BPF) found tenants paid 1.2 per cent less last month, with rents averaging around £684. Wales experienced the furthest drop, slumping 2.6 per cent, while the south-east and London also saw declines with 2.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent falls respectively."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:40 AM 4 Comments

Hmmmmmmmmm thought they said liverpool

Manchester evening news: Proof that welfare cuts WILL hit Greater Manchester hardest

Benefit cuts will hit Greater Manchester harder than any other region in the country, according to a report published today. Manchester, Rochdale, Bolton and Wigan will suffer some of the worst cuts in government spending on welfare payments says the report by the influential Think Tank, Centre for Cities.

Posted by mark @ 11:38 AM 5 Comments

Pent up lack of demand

24 Dash: 'Deposits at 40-year high as prospects for first-time buyers look bleak'

"At least 100,000 first-time buyers who have no help from the ‘bank of mum and dad’ were unable to enter the housing market last year, as the number of low deposit mortgages slumped to a record low, according to data published by the Chartered Institute of Housing. In 2009 there were only 28,000 loans to first-time buyers at 90 per cent or more - where buyers had to find a 10 per cent deposit or less - down from 245,000 in 2006. And numbers of younger first-time buyers able to buy a home without help with a deposit fell by 100,000 per year between 2006 and 2009."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:26 AM 14 Comments

Time to buy property in Liverpool then, before the prices drop

Liverpool daily post: Liverpool will lose ‘10,000 public sector jobs’ because of cuts

THE full scale of the impact of government cuts on Merseyside is today revealed in a damning report. The Centre for Cities think tank has concluded that Liverpool will be the most affected major city in the UK, and that: Liverpool and Wirral will lose almost £200 per resident – double that of Oxford near David Cameron’s wealthy constituency

Posted by mark @ 11:23 AM 0 Comments

Calling Sherlock; message for Sherlock...

Telegraph: Double-dip talk returns as UK economic growth slows

Almost 148,000 companies are in difficulties before the the full impact of spending cuts and tax rises has even been felt, according to a report from Begbies Traynor, the insolvency specialist. Begbies, which monitors the warning signs of company distress, found the first year-on-year increase in companies experiencing 'significant' or 'critical' financial problems since the beginning of 2009. The report comes ahead of official data out tomorrow which is expected to confirm that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by as little as 0.2pc in the final three months of last year, down from 0.7pc and 1.1pc in the previous quarters. The release of the data will mark the first anniversary of Britain being officially diagnosed as out of recession.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:22 AM 5 Comments

One for Mark Wadsworth

Estate Agent Today: Call for Stamp Duty to be replaced by hefty annual property tax

Stamp Duty should be abolished and replaced with an annual tax on the value of the property – essentially a higher council tax. The call has come from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Its report is critical of Stamp Duty, which it says discourages mobility among home owners by raising the cost of moving. The OECD also points out that an annual property tax would, over the years, raise more than Stamp Duty. It wants the new tax to go partly to local councils and partly to the Treasury. But David Newnes, estate agency managing director of LSL, was not impressed. He said: “Swapping a single payment tax for one that continues indefinitely will have an adverse effect on prices. “Property buyers can’t be hoodwinked by a short-term saving that is so clear"

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:16 AM 18 Comments

How the BoE missed the upturn in inflation

Clouded Outlook: How well have the Bank of England forecasted the inflation rate?

The BoE forecast goes one way, the inflation rate goes the other way.

Posted by inflationwatch @ 03:16 AM 0 Comments

Flying off shelf

MOL: One-Hyde-Park-TWO-sold-84-to-go

2 actually sold to the Sheik and Candy themselves. Deposits probably paid – on a further 26 apartments. This is well short of the 48 or so claimed by the project’s cheerleaders.

Posted by peter_2008 @ 12:05 AM 13 Comments

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Property bubble bursts and then...

SKY: Timeline Of Ireland's Economic Woes Troubles

Here is a timeline of Ireland's economic troubles since Brian Cowen was elected prime minister.

Posted by alan @ 09:29 PM 0 Comments

First time heard government speak like this

Bbc news: Government admit housing market became a casino

words not used before is setting up people to expect a housing market that will have to fall in price.Houseprice are so out of touch with salaries my guess is its going to fall for many many years surprising everyone and ruining many

Posted by taffee @ 05:20 PM 19 Comments

Resisting the tide of Irish owned property which could flood the UK market

Guardian: Ireland's property entrepreneurs relinquish their London trophies

"During the boom, Irish speculators snapped up expensive UK properties. Now, some of the capital's best-known buildings are up for sale or in the hands of Dublin's 'bad bank'." And there's more.....

Posted by dill @ 12:00 PM 7 Comments

Speculation - Figures due Tuesday

Telegraph: Britain in battle over stagflation

"New figures set to confirm that growth has slowed, while unemployment and oil prices rise – a severe problem that blighted the 1970s." (If the governement prints lots of extra money, each £ will buy less oil, won't it?).

Posted by alan @ 11:39 AM 9 Comments

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Property obsession

Thisismoney: Forget marriage, buying a home shows commitment

Nearly a third of couples are choosing to buy a home together as a sign of their commitment, rather than getting married, a survey suggests today. Thirty per cent said buying a property with their partner would remove the pressure on them to get married, or at least allow them to delay tying the knot. And 55% of people said they would consider buying a property with their other half before they got married, the study found. Among couples who were renting together the figure was 67%.

Posted by drewster @ 09:31 PM 5 Comments

Posen thinks his job is to support property prices

Telegraph: Bank of England's Adam Posen warns over lack of mortgage lending

“My view is two things have supported the UK housing market in the last couple of years,” Mr Posen said. “One is our interest-rate cuts and quantitative easing directly affecting mortgage affordability” and the second that the level of UK homebuilding was “relatively small for the size of the economy compared to Spain or Ireland or the US”. “You have both a demand factor through aggressive monetary ease and a supply factor in that the oversupply was much less,” he said. “That to me is a very straightforward explanation for why housing prices have been relatively resilient.” (H/T to Realistbear on the forums where I found this article.)

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:15 PM 14 Comments

Warning - risky mortgages!

BBC: Bank of America reports $1.2bn loss

"Bank of America has reported a second straight quarterly loss, driven by a $2bn (£1.25bn) writedown of its mortgage business". "The bank had previously warned that it would write down the value of its mortgage business, given the foreclosure crisis in the US, which has seen homeowners - facing high unemployment and slow job growth - fall behind on their mortgage payments".

Posted by alan @ 12:54 PM 1 Comments

So you have to ask - what acceditation do they hold up to them?

New Statesman: FSA announces regulatory changes from 2013

From 2013, investment advisers - both independent advisers and those working for institutions - will need to be hold accreditation, called a Statement of Professional Standing, and sign up to a code of ethics. Maybe their certificate will have a 'golden fleece' logo, and the words 'Nos mos velieris vos sulum vicis' ....!!!

Posted by rental john @ 12:43 PM 0 Comments

Another quality rbs and hbos venture

End of 'the world': End of the world

Potty project finances by uk banks and others whilst people suffer around the world...I have no doubt we will find out just what other mad schemes they are involved in and if it turn out to be 'onehydepark' I'llleave the country!

Posted by taffee @ 11:41 AM 2 Comments

Spain follows Ireland down the drain

Daily Telegraph: Spain to rescue banks

In an attempt to reassure the markets Spain will follow Ireland and rescue its banks. Well it will keep the bankers bonus party going but not much else! Spain will simply follow Ireland down the drain.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 01:16 AM 2 Comments

Friday, January 21, 2011

Sorry Posen, we don't believe you

Telegraph: Halifax latest to withdraw best mortgage deals

The cheapest fixed-rate mortgages are being taken off the market as lenders begin to price in interest rate rises in the months ahead. Halifax, the country's biggest lender, is the latest to have withdrawn competitive fixed-rate deals. A spokesman from Halifax said: "Recent movements in funding costs have led to us re-price some of our mortgage products, and we continue to keep our rates under review."

Posted by alan @ 10:50 PM 2 Comments

He's wrong - again!

Bloomberg: Bank of England's Posen Sees U.K. Inflation Slowing `Well Below' 2% Target

"Bank of England policy maker Adam Posen dismissed the recent burst of inflation as temporary, indicating he may keep pushing for more stimulus to aid the economic recovery". “Inflation will be well below” the bank’s 2 percent target, he said, citing spare capacity and the likelihood that budget cuts will hurt consumer spending". "Posen said he has been “surprised in magnitude” by how Germany and some of its neighbors have weathered the debt crisis in the continent’s periphery. German business confidence unexpectedly rose to a record in January, data today showed." (no doubt Posen will be surprised next month when the VAT and Petrol rises trickle through and inflation DOESN'T drop to 2%).

Posted by alan @ 10:32 PM 6 Comments

Some fear that interest rates will rise

FT: Britain triggers global inflation alarm

Some of the world’s leading investors have turned bearish on government bonds from developed countries as they warn of the growing danger of inflation. Data this week showing the UK’s consumer price index hit 3.7 per cent in December fuelled that concern and sent benchmark British borrowing costs to an eight-month high of 3.72 per cent... The trend has caused homeowners to rush to fix their mortgage rates as lenders withdraw their cheapest fixed-rate deals.

Posted by mountain goat @ 08:34 PM 3 Comments

The irish want to export their bankers

Irish independent: Lenihan to push ahead with 90pc tax on bank bonuses

Clearly the Irish are not heading advice to avoid taxing their bankers and so a massive exodus of those with particular talents in bankrupting an entire nation is inevitable. Of course the UK are not going to turn such talented individuals away with their more liberal tax regime. For those avid HPCs these bankers, by their lax lending practices and other unorthodox practices have lead to a 40% reduction in Irish house prices (so far!).

Posted by european bear @ 07:32 PM 0 Comments

Now we have all the proles gold...

Zero Hedge: Gold Standard Fully Supported By... Alan Greenspan!?

You read that right. After such establishment "luminaries" as World Bank president Robert Zoellick, Warren Buffett's father Howard, Jim Grant, and, most recently, Kansas Fed president Thomas Hoenig, all voiced their support for a return to a gold standard, the most recent addition to the motley group of contrite voodoo shamans is none othe than the man who is singlehandedly responsible for America's addiction to cheap toxic credit.

Posted by general congreve @ 06:53 PM 8 Comments

Paul Lewis and guests answer calls on renting and letting property

BBC Radio 4: Money Box Live: Renting and letting property

Phone in dealing with issues of renting and letting property.

Posted by karma4all @ 05:02 PM 0 Comments

"The near- paralysis of the mortgage market continues"

London Evening Standard: Fears for housing market as mortgage lending dries up

A fresh slump in mortgage lending triggered warnings over the "near-paralysis" of the market today amid mounting signs of ebbing confidence as consumers brace themselves for austerity Britain. Mortgage lending slid to its lowest level for a decade last year with just £136.3 billion advanced during 2010 - down 5% on 2009 - the Council of Mortgage Lenders warned. The £11 billion lent in December was the fourth monthly fall in a row and offers little hope for an imminent revival in a sluggish housing market.

Posted by jack c @ 03:11 PM 21 Comments

A surge in pent-up arrears.

Houseladder: Landlords 'may want to lower rent'

A letting expert has suggested courses of action that can be taken to offset the increase in tenants struggling to pay rent. Landlords have been advised on courses of action they can take to counter the growing number of tenants struggling to meet their rental payments. Mark Garner, managing director of LettingZone, claimed that letting agents should consider bringing rent down where property demand is low, but noted that it may not be necessary where it is high. Last week, the Association of Residential Letting Agents revealed that in the fourth quarter of 2010, 40 per cent of its members reported a rise in tenants having difficulties with their housing costs. It was suggested that recent job losses and pay cuts were among the factors having an effect.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 12:54 PM 2 Comments

On 'borrowed' time

Guardian: UK rents fall as arrears rise

Guardian reports on the latest Buy to Let Index from LSL Property Services.

Posted by dill @ 11:09 AM 7 Comments

December Mortgage Lending -18% YoY -6% MoM

BBC News: Renewed drop in mortgage lending

(Whole Article) The total amount of mortgages advanced in December fell by 6% compared with the previous month, lenders say. The £11bn advanced in December was also 18% lower than the same month a year earlier, when some buyers were beating the end of the stamp duty holiday. The data, from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), is the latest evidence of dampened demand from buyers at the end of 2010. The CML added that some home loans had been increasing in cost recently.

Posted by wdbeast @ 10:08 AM 14 Comments

It's all an ILLUSION

You tube: UK house prices ruining UK economy (20Jan11)

Houses are to live in...

Posted by happy mondays @ 10:04 AM 6 Comments

As per title

Guardian: China confirmed as world's second largest economy

China's role as the engine of world trade and chief rival to the US was cemented yesterday after its economic performance in 2010 powered it to second place in the global rankings ahead of Japan. The Chinese economy grew by 10.3% last year, in sharp contrast to Japan, which has struggled to grow by more than 2% a year for the last two decades. The stronger than expected data from China sent stock markets and the price of commodities falling as traders wrestled with the implications for growth and inflation in the rest of the world. Fuelled by recent high oil prices, inflation in China also came in higher than expected last month, at 4.6%. Worries over inflation were underlined by news that Guangdong province, China's southern manufacturing heartland, had increased its minimum wage'

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:46 AM 11 Comments

Wot no cash-rich buyers?

Estate Agent Today: Bonuses set to be a damp squib for housing market

'The bankers’ bonus effect on the housing market may be a damp squib rather than a £7bn firecracker. One factor is a report from the IFA revealing that billions of pounds worth of bonuses may have been miscalculated and paid out by mistake. Another is that bonuses may be mainly paid out in shares over a five-year period and be subject to clawbacks – making lenders nervous to lend against them. It has emerged that complicated International Financial Accounting Standards mean that banks have been able to hide risks, thereby inflating profits and bonuses.'

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:35 AM 4 Comments

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Small steps towards LVT

Federation of Small Businesses: Commercial landlords with empty properties in for a shock

The FSB is concerned that firms that have empty properties could have to pay thousands extra in business rates when changes to the exemption from paying empty property rates come into force from April this year. Previously, businesses with an empty property with a rateable value [annual rental value] below £18,000 did not have to pay business rates. The Government plans to cut this threshold from £18,000 to just £2,600, placing a very significant burden on many small firms that are struggling in the current economic climate. Just as alarming is the fact that small firms will not be able to claim the 50% Small Business Rate Relief.

Posted by drewster @ 08:30 PM 14 Comments

Land Value Tax on mainstream media - wow

BBC Radio 4: Mark Thomas - The Manifesto

Just been listening to Mark Thomas on radio 4 and he starts taking about controlling house prices and Land Value Tax - The irony is that it was in a comedy programme about wacky ideas for a manifesto.ou will be able to listen to it on iplayer in an hour or two

Posted by the number cruncher @ 07:05 PM 2 Comments

Hasta la vista baby

Yahoo: Spain prepares fresh funding

"The recapitalisation will have to be done, and to a large extent be absorbed by the government," said Antonio Garcia Pascual, analyst at Barclays Capital.

Posted by chrisch @ 05:46 PM 3 Comments

Real estate prices rise on inflation threat

Der Speigel: The spectre of inflation

"Real estate prices are likewise shooting up, at least in top markets like Munich and Hamburg. Buyers are snapping up properties in the anticipation that prices will go up in the future."

Posted by chrisch @ 05:41 PM 2 Comments

Stock markets: two canaries calling for caution

Investment Postcards: Stock markets: two canaries calling for caution

China and small caps – are these the proverbial canaries in the coalmine? Possibly, especially given the overvalued, overbought, overbullish condition of stock markets.

Posted by prieur du plessis @ 02:55 PM 6 Comments

OECD calls for SDLT reform

FTAdviser.com: OECD calls for abolition of stamp duty to revive housing market

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has called for the abolition of stamp duty to revive England's housing market. OECD economists speaking at the launch of the OECD's report, Housing and the Economy: Policies for the Renovation, said the abolition of stamp duty would reduce barriers to entry in the housing market. Asa Johansson, OECD economist, said stamp duty should be replaced with an increased council tax where part of the funds went to local councils and part to the Treasury. She said: "I think stamp duty should be removed and replaced with a property tax based on the value on the house. "It adds on costs for people entering the market."

Posted by jack c @ 01:40 PM 19 Comments

No wealth has been created. It is an illusion.

BBC: Falling house prices could help market and UK economy

Homeowners are gloomily anticipating higher interest rates, but are the British obsessed with house prices regardless of their effect on the wider economy? Susana Mendonça reports on whether a drop in prices could actually make most people better off. She spoke to Economist Roger Bootle, author Shiv Malik and Lucian Cook form Savills Estate Agents

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 01:25 PM 11 Comments

US property looks cheap – but not quite cheap enough

MoneyWeek: US property looks cheap – but not quite cheap enough

With US house prices down about 25% from their peak, American real estate is looking cheap. But it's still not time to buy, says Dominic Frisby. Here, he looks at the real price of US property.

Posted by damien @ 12:16 PM 2 Comments

Oh dear, I lost money, want govt to give me more

BBC News: Plea to change law on 'glittering' deals for apartments

Can I also ask govt. for the house I didn't buy that went up in price and I lost out?

Posted by bertie @ 12:02 PM 5 Comments

Investor pulls $1 billion from stock funds

Bloomberg: Man Group Sinks as Investor Pulls $1 Billion, Analysts Question Fee Growth

Client did not want exposure to EUROPEAN stocks. That's bad, really - suggests that European stocks are massively overvalued and about to plummet. Might have a knock on effect to the housing market if they do....

Posted by hpcwaiter @ 12:01 PM 1 Comments

Morality Question

Mail online: Squatter moves into 'Eyesore Cottage'

Easy to sympathise with the squatter and his new neighbours - but it seems they new the owners. Eighteen months ago was the time to be in touch. Who do you love? Also less empty properties, it seems, than have been quoted many times on this site.

Posted by nomad @ 11:29 AM 10 Comments

Aviva says: 'Buy insurance, it's great!'

Guardian: Almost all UK families have 'inadequate financial protection'

Hardly a groundbreaking article highlighting how much debt is prevalent in the UK and that single-parent families are even more likely to have no savings. As an aside, while i'm wont to bash multiple home-owners, I do wonder how much the UK housing stock is 'wasted' by the culturally-acceptable prevalence of single-parent families (another gift from the boomers, arguably) which - in effect - depletes our existing stock even further.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 10:57 AM 8 Comments

More upward pressure on interest rates

The Telegraph: Record manufacturing data lifts UK recovery hopes

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "This is a fantastic report... Encouragingly, the more-forward looking elements of the survey were robust". James Knightley, at ING Financial Markets, said the price rises "point to a growing risk of interest rate hikes in the UK".

Posted by flashman @ 10:07 AM 19 Comments

Commodities price manipulation

Telegraph: US trader Hetco drives up oil price

Just to confirm what many suspected, here is a speculator taking a big stake and inpacting on energy prices. I often wondered what happened to all the cash which the governments lent to the banks! Comments are interesting. (Resulting inflation will impact house purchase affordability).

Posted by alan @ 08:59 AM 3 Comments

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Meanwhile in Cornwall

This is Cornwall: Fight for a home in West is getting really desperate

When even workers on a decent wage have no chance of buying their first home until they have saved up more than £30,000 for a mortgage deposit (and who can do that these days?) the pressure for rented accommodation becomes fierce. But even experts on the burgeoning housing crisis must have been shocked to learn that more than 1,000 families and single people are fighting over just 68 new homes for rent, now available in Cornwall.

Posted by khards @ 03:46 PM 15 Comments

What can I say?

Birmingham Mail: 'Poverty wages' raise benefits

THOUSANDS of workers living in the West Midlands are being forced to draw housing benefits by a combination of low wages and high rents. UNISON, the UK’s largest union, warned that “thousands of workers in the West Midlands are so poorly paid that they are forced onto housing benefit to keep a roof over their heads”. Nationally, 26 per cent of those claiming housing benefits are in work. Read More http://www.birminghammail.net/news/top-stories/2011/01/19/poverty-wages-raise-benefits-97319-28010791/#ixzz1BUq3ibOG

Posted by khards @ 03:43 PM 4 Comments

Councils in England announce 2,200 more job cuts

BBC News: Councils in England announce 2,200 more job cuts

More than 2,000 jobs are to be cut at two county councils in a bid to make multimillion-pound savings.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:45 PM 0 Comments

More bargains hit the market

Telegraph: One Hyde Park, the world's most expensive apartments, opens its doors for the first time

The world’s most expensive residential apartments at One Hyde Park have been officially unveiled today by the colourful property duo, the Candy brothers. Around 350 guests have been asked to an extravagant launch party at the Knightsbridge development, where they will be shown the apartments which reportedly start a £6.5m for one bedroom and go up to £140m for a penthouse. The prices, averaging about £6,000 a square foot, are the highest ever paid for residential space, according to property experts.

Posted by jack c @ 01:28 PM 15 Comments

IR rise "priced in" by markets

Reuters: 25-year gilt sale draws stellar demand

"Britain sold 2.25 billion pounds of 25-year gilts on Wednesday, drawing strong demand from investors keen to take advantage of the recent rise in yields to an eight-month high" "Investors are now pricing in two quarter-point rises in UK interest rates this year, a sharp contrast to last October when markets were not expecting rates to rise until 2012".

Posted by alan @ 12:18 PM 8 Comments

Will we hit hit Flashman's unemployment "tipping point"

BBC: UK unemployment total rises further

UK unemployment rose by 49,000 to almost 2.5 million in the three months to the end of November, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said. One in five 16 to 24-year-olds are now out of work, after a rise of 32,000 to 951,000 without jobs, the highest figure since records began in 1992.

Posted by jack c @ 11:07 AM 7 Comments

Couple miss mortgage payment

Guardian: Irish couple owe €800m to banks after property spending spree

"The O'Donnells live in a clifftop home in one of Ireland's most salubrious suburban roads and count the U2 frontman Bono among their neighbours." If ever there was a case of money not buying happiness.

Posted by cyril @ 09:43 AM 15 Comments

Another Classic From TDM

The Daily Mash: Bankers Blame Capitalism For Their Arrogance

RBS chairman, Sir Phillip Hampton, confirmed that all bankers, even the really thick ones, are self-satisfied pricks, especially when the government has to takeover their bank because they clearly don't know what they're doing.

Posted by crash n burn @ 09:41 AM 0 Comments

The peculiar case of rents dictated by tenants' ability to pay.

Estate Agent Today: Boom in rental growth 'coming to an end'

The boom in rental growth is likely to be at an end, think-tank Capital Economics has warned. Property economist Paul Diggle says the boom is on its last legs and warned that if its unemployment forecasts are correct, more tenants will be struggling to pay rents. Eviction specialist Landlord Action said rents would not go down, but said its instructions relating to rent arrears have increased by 12% over the last year, and now comprise 80% of its cases. It also warned that in the last 12 months, cases directly related to Local Housing Allowance (LHA) increased by 16%.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:30 AM 5 Comments

In case you missed this programme last evening...

BBC2 (BBC iPlayer): Britain's Banks: Too Big to Save? -

A look at how international regulators have failed to curb the excesses of the giant banks and how new proposals fall short of the root-and-branch reform promised after the crash.

Posted by rental john @ 09:22 AM 0 Comments

Tick, Tick, Tick

Metro: Mortgage time bomb as cheap deals set to disappear

"Britain is sitting on a mortgage ‘ticking time bomb’ homeowners were warned as an inflation surge pushed interest rate rises closer". "Martin Lewis, of the MoneySaving­Expert website, said: ‘We are sitting on a ticking time bomb in the mortgage market right now. Those who want to fix need to do so now.’

Posted by alan @ 12:44 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Zimbabwe December inflation slows to 3.2 pct

Reuters Africa: More Credible than BoE? Was it 'unexpected'?

Zimbabwe's inflation slowed to 3.2 percent year-on-year in December 2010 from 4.2 percent in November, the Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency said on Tuesday. On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at -0.4 percent in December from 0.5 percent in November, Zimstats said in a statement.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 06:08 PM 11 Comments

Spanish NIMBYs fighting back

Daily Mail: British couple sentenced to eight months in Spanish prison for building retirement villa on protected land

David and Janet Hartshorn illegally built a large house on protected land near the Costa del Sol town of Torrox, a judge ruled. Speaking at the property under threat of demolition, Mrs Hartshorn said she had not yet been informed of the judge's ruling. 'This is terrible news,' she said. 'I am very upset by this. We haven't been told anything about the result of the court case. We have a meeting with our solicitor on Wednesday. The house was built nine years ago and people are still building houses illegally round here.'

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 03:29 PM 8 Comments

Long article, but worth the read...

New Statesman: After the recession, the real pain begins

Fuel price protests rattled Blair. The 10p tax row dogged Brown. Is David Cameron ready for the storm that his huge raid on our personal finances is about to unleash?

Posted by rental john @ 03:28 PM 0 Comments

The old mud will always stick to the new broom....

The Economist: Ed Miliband says sorry for everything apart from spending too much

That there is no political logic in Labour's denial of culpability for the deficit suggests something even more worrying, something that is confirmed in private conversations with many of the party's MPs and advisers: they actually believe it.

Posted by rental john @ 03:16 PM 0 Comments

Merv and the Muppets take some stick

Iain Martin - WSJ: A Worried Government Trapped on Inflation

Mark Field MP asks whether “the authorities” have decided that tackling inflation will be too painful, and have thus decided to avoid dealing with it. Perhaps a decision has been taken to let inflation rip — to enable the government to inflate away its debts. [...] There is a moral dimension, too. Coupled with interest rates being close to zero, inflation is an instrument of war against savers. It rewards those who have been irresponsible — governments that borrow too much and consumers who do similar — and punishes those who have behaved responsibly by choosing to live within their means and trying to make provision for themselves and their families. The politics of this are thus highly dangerous for ministers.

Posted by montesquieu @ 02:52 PM 7 Comments

Poll Results: Sentiment – where have the bulls disappeared?

Investment Postcards: Poll Results: Sentiment – where have the bulls disappeared?

The stock market sentiment poll conducted over the past few days by Investment Postcards and The Big Picture show results materially different from that of the AAII and Investors Intelligence, notably significantly fewer bulls. Why is this and what does it mean?

Posted by prieur du plessis @ 12:28 PM 0 Comments

That'll be the summer-snow-effect, I take it?

NZ News UK: NZ housing market slides in December

"Wellington’s median price held steady at December 2009 levels of $400,000 while sales gained to 568 from 548 a year ago. Southland’s December 2010 median is also the same as 12 months ago at $184,000 while Otago’s median price of $235,000 was up 2.17% on the previous year. In all other districts December median prices fell between 1.5% and 7.5% compared to the same a year ago, and most districts also reported a fall in sales volumes."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:47 AM 2 Comments

When will interest rates rise?

Telegraph: Inflation hits 8 month high - market reaction

The pressure to raise interest rates continues.

Posted by cyril @ 11:12 AM 11 Comments

"Slowing decline" or "Spring Bounce"?

City AM: House prices steady, says Rics

"THE decline in house prices may be slowing down, according to data released today by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The survey’s headline net price balance improved for the second month in a row in December, RICS said. And expectations for sales edged upwards, with eight per cent more surveyors expecting sales to increase rather than decrease in the coming months. “Many respondents suggested that the market may begin to pick up again in the spring,” the report said."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:14 AM 2 Comments

Balance -39

RICS: Housing Market Survey December 2010

Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise, fall or no change in house prices over the last three months (NSA): _Rise 3%_Same 48%_Fall 50%_Balance (Not seasonally adjusted) -47_Balance (Seasonally adusted) -39 _Seasonally adjusted stocks of housing on books = 71 (up from 69 in previous month) _Seasonally adjusted completed sales per surveyor = 15 (unchanged on previous month)

Posted by dill @ 09:58 AM 3 Comments

Inflation above expectations

Reuters: Inflation surges to 8-month high in December

"A surge in oil prices drove consumer price inflation up far more than expected in December to an 8-month high of 3.7 percent, official data showed on Tuesday, well above the Bank of England's own forecasts".

Posted by alan @ 09:39 AM 1 Comments

CPI at 3.7%

BBC: UK inflation rate rises to 3.7% in December

"The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) annual inflation rate rose to 3.7% in December, up from 3.3% in November. Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation - which includes mortgage interest payments - rose to 4.8% from 4.7%. The rise will put further pressure on the Bank of England to lift interest rates to curb rising inflation."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 09:38 AM 4 Comments

Read all about it! read all about it!

Express: HOUSE PRICES SET TO SURGE

PROPERTY prices are heading for a spring bounce, according to the country’s leading experts. Bus found on the moon & a Giant squid wins euro jackpot!

Posted by happy mondays @ 08:51 AM 28 Comments

Predictably enough

BBC News: Snow 'caused slow housing market'

Heavy snowfall during December led to "lacklustre" activity levels in the UK housing market, according to surveyors. New buyer enquiries fell during the month, and new instructions from sellers stood at its lowest level for 18 months, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said. "While lack of supply, and more importantly demand continues to impact heavily, surveyor sentiment does appear more positive for the coming months. The key issue now is mortgage finance. However, with commentators suggesting lending constraints are unlikely to be eased, it is hard to envisage a meaningful increase in sales levels in the near term."

Posted by drewster @ 03:15 AM 7 Comments

Housing market "undervalued"

Telegraph: UK housing market to get tougher for first-time buyers

The latest housing affordability index, published by Lombard Street Research in conjunction with The Daily Telegraph, shows house prices are at their most undervalued level since the mid-1990s. But bank lending on home loans is becoming increasingly squeezed since the financial crisis, LSR said, meaning very few first-time buyers will be able to take advantage of the so-called housing affordability.

Posted by drewster @ 02:54 AM 6 Comments

Monday, January 17, 2011

Expect tomorrows inflation figures to come in worse than forecast

Citywire: Bank of England urged to resist pressure to raise rates

The Bank of England must ‘hold its nerve’ and resist pressure to raise interest rates until the strength of the economic recovery becomes clearer, influential forecasters have argued. The Ernst & Young ITEM Club has warned the Bank, which kept the base rate on hold at 0.5% last week, not to give way to ‘temporary pressures’ as headline inflation will return to target early next year.

Posted by jack c @ 08:28 PM 9 Comments

Firstrung Chief Exec rails against BTL.

Houseladder: Buy-to-let 'has taken properties out of the picture'

The buy-to-let industry has taken valuable property that could otherwise be meeting the demands of potential owners, according to a specialist. Paul Holmes, chief executive of Firstrung, commented that the demand to buy a first home is "still there" despite a lack of affordable mortgages on the market. "Now the buy-to-let landlords have sucked out a huge proportion of property that would normally be occupied by homeowner occupiers, now these people have no option but to rent," he said. Mr Holmes predicted that house prices will only go down and he doubts that the government, the Monetary Policy Committee or the Bank of England will be able to do anything about it.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 04:02 PM 3 Comments

Will this help HPC?

Telegraph: Families need £1,800 extra a year by 2015 to pay credit cards

Households will need to find an extra £1,800 a year by 2015 just to pay the interest on their credit cards and other loans as interest rates rise, a report has suggested.

Posted by mr g @ 02:21 PM 8 Comments

The Irish developer

BBC Radio 4: Europeans on the Edge: The Irish developer

Lucy Ash meets chastened developer Simon Kelly, a victim of the property crash in Ireland. Kelly was once the poster boy in a world where property developers made huge sums of money, but now he's broke and belongs to a vilified breed.

Posted by karma4all @ 01:49 PM 3 Comments

Housing nose dive for the Geordies - There is no hope

North East Business: Hopes amid the property prices nosedive

“It’s the worst negative signals I’ve seen in 30 years, and it’s hitting people’s confidence." Oh I do hope so... But the reporter still tries to put a positive spin on this story. I think the prices up North will crumble and slowing infect the South.

Posted by the number cruncher @ 01:05 PM 8 Comments

More plugs than a hardware shop.

Telegraph: Property market: time to buy or time to sell?

I was going to quip that the three anecdotes are hardly representative of the UK property market but then given how FTBs are staying away (or prevented from entering the market); they probably are, unfortunately. Still, nice to see how the other half live.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 12:58 PM 2 Comments

Banks are NOT banks anymore

G Pytel: How banks' role changed

...very useful to understand what's going on

Posted by ant @ 12:08 PM 1 Comments

Gold, vested interests and the rigging of the game

Chris Martenson: JP Morgan Wins: CFTC Position Limits Do Not Apply (To Them)

Gold and silver are now down hard over the past two days, and the reason may have something to do with the fact that the CFTC utterly caved to JPM ... Chris Martenson is pretty steamed: "Once again, all sense of fair play has been abandoned in the interest of giving a special handout to a set of large banks that are reporting near-record earnings. When, I must ask, is enough enough?"

Posted by greenmind @ 11:55 AM 0 Comments

NIMBY Fun

Burton Mail: Green belt under threat from new housing policy

"VILLAGERS could see their green spaces swallowed up by housing developments if a policy drafted by a council is approved. East Staffordshire Borough Council (ESBC) is proposing to build on greenfield sites, which are areas of undeveloped land used for agriculture, landscaping or nature, in order to meet the need for new housing in the region." Of course there's no problem that Land Value Tax won't sort out: "... many of the brownfield sites that were earmarked for potential development in 2006 are now unavailable due to a dip in property prices and their owners being unwilling to sell them."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:53 AM 5 Comments

Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Estate Agent Today: Gap between auction and estate agent prices widens

Homes that sold at auction in December were 26.4% cheaper than property sold through estate agents. According to a new report from Fathom Consulting, the discount is the largest since the bottom of the housing market in late 2008 and early 2009. The gap between auction and estate agency prices had been around 20% since the middle of last year. Fathom Consulting says that the discount is significant because it claims that auction prices predict what will happen in the wider market. “We have not seen such a large discount, in a month where there was a good number of auction sales, since late 2008 to early 2009, in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehmans. We now expect to see bigger falls in house prices, as measured by the lenders’ indices.”

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:08 AM 5 Comments

To rise or not to rise...that is the question..

This is money..: Rates must not rise, experts warn

The Bank of England must not raise interest rates this year, despite inflation that will hit 4% next month, according to a gloomy forecast by the Ernst & Young ITEM Club. The closely-watched predictions for 2011 paint a picture of a tough year ahead. ITEM Club economists have forecast: read link to see more..

Posted by rob @ 09:34 AM 0 Comments

Emerging stocks crash as interest rates rise

ArabianMoney: Equities tumble in China, India, Dubai, Egypt as emerging markets correct

Rising property prices in China are sounding alarm bells about monetary tightening and the smart money is leaving stocks that fell two per cent yesterday in Shanghai. Property stocks are the focus of selling as the ‘Dubai x1000 property boom’ cited by hedge fund legend Jim Chanos (who shorted US sub prime brilliantly, click here) will inevitably come to a sticky end. In India higher interest rates are also expected as inflationary pressure on food prices is mounting. The hubris of its bourse is now exposed to the market forces of correction. The Dubai bourse is suffering a crisis of confidence as more and more debt horror stories emerge from the woodwork. Credit Suisse recently came up with a new high for total state debt of $129 billion, topping the IMF’s $109 billion..

Posted by peter @ 07:27 AM 0 Comments

Rightmove: +0.3% MoM, +0.4%YoY

Reuters: UK house prices turn positive in January

Happy new year!

Posted by little professor @ 01:12 AM 29 Comments

Sunday, January 16, 2011

The first of many?

BBC News: India to demolish new flats

Not price related this time, but fraud related. Will Eire be next?

Posted by chrisch @ 10:52 PM 2 Comments

The gap widens

Citywire: Property in 2011: the rich will get richer

1. The availability/affordability of mortgages is likely to push more property into the hands of the older, relatively cash-rich generation that has already benefited from previous boom markets. 2. Public sector job cuts will have a much greater effect on homeowners in the north, where the public sector pays the mortgages of the highest earners. 3. House prices will soften in the north and Midlands, where there is less equity and more debt. Conversely there will be little impact on house prices in the rarefied markets of the south east and central London, where bonus money and foreign money (according to Savills, 60% of purchases at the top end of the London market are made by foreign buyers) are unaffected by the mainstream lending market.

Posted by drewster @ 01:57 PM 6 Comments

Hedge fund sentiment - fact or fancy?

The Telegraph: Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting

Not HPC - but interesting article: The world is looking to China as a springboard out of recession - but some hedge funds are betting the country's credit and growth levels cannot be sustained.

Posted by rental john @ 01:46 PM 0 Comments

Grubbing is his business

Observer: MPs fail to land a knockout punch on Diamond Bob

An analysis of why you can't instill moderation in a banker. A blackly golden cartoon and something to stimulate bad language.

Posted by letthemfall @ 01:39 PM 1 Comments

It'll be grim up North

AOL Daily Finance: North/South house price divide widens

Three regions – the North, Wales and Yorkshire & Humberside – are now experiencing house price falls on an annual basis, even when you look at the smoother three-monthly figures. If you compare the political map with the areas likely to face the largest public sector cuts - well what do you know!

Posted by rental john @ 01:37 PM 0 Comments

See post @ 1 for FT article "Banks write off debt for landlords"

FT via Citywire: Banks write off debt for landlords

Several of the UK and Irish banks that received government bail-outs are offering to write off up to 25 per cent of a mortgage debt for professional landlords and developers – just to encourage them to move to new lenders. Anglo Irish Bank – the institution at the centre of Ireland’s property meltdown and the recipient of €30bn of government money – is one of a number of lenders willing to let certain property owners off a proportion of their debt if they refinance elsewhere.

Posted by jack c @ 12:48 PM 8 Comments

As requested by STR 2007

Telegraph: Could Britain be heading for a crash?

Simon Heffer being surprisingly muted, non-committal and non-judgmental: "Where my economist friend is almost certainly right is that, even without external shocks, interest rates must rise. Personal bankruptcies and business failures will rise with them; so will unemployment. House prices will fall, and possibly also many other asset values, including the stock market. We cannot postpone indefinitely the final acceptance that we must live within our means."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:06 AM 12 Comments

Snow joke

Telegraph: Housing market stalls amid lending fears

The number of mortgages approved for those buying a new home remained at 44,000 in November, unchanged from October and the joint lowest level since last May, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The figure was also 15 per cent down on the number of house purchase loans approved in November 2009, when the market was distorted by people buying lower-value properties rushing to complete transactions before the stamp duty holiday ended. FTBs typically borrowed 80pc of the value of their property, the highest level for two years. Economists said the lack of affordable mortgages will put pressures on house prices this year. Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight, predicts average values will fall a further 7 per cent to just above £150,000.

Posted by drewster @ 01:11 AM 1 Comments

Five million people on waiting lists

BBC News: Social housing waiting lists rise in England

The number of people joining waiting lists for social housing rose last year, councils in England say. More than 11,000 people joined the lists from July to September last year, 12% more than the previous quarter. Richard Kemp, vice-chair of the Local Government Association, said there was "no long-term solution to this problem". The government says it is working to find a solution to what it admits is a housing crisis. Waiting lists rose 72% over the last 13 years, from just over one million in the late 1990s to almost 1.8m by 2008. This latest rise means five million people are now on waiting lists across the UK and councils say they are being forced to use more private accommodation. "We haven't been building enough homes to keep pace with demand."

Posted by drewster @ 01:11 AM 10 Comments

Saturday, January 15, 2011

BTL loans outnumber FTB's loans

Citywire: Buy to let investors crowd out first time buyers

From 1984 to 2002 loans to first time buyers were averaging around 500,000. Since 2002 however the number of loans to first time buyers has fallen dramatically to 193,700 in 2008 and 199,000 in 2009. The 2010 figure is likely to be around the 200,000 mark. Meanwhile lending to buy to let investors has been running at over 200,000 loans a year since 2004. Lending then hit its all time high of 346,000 loans in 2007 and 222,700 in 2008 at a time when mortgages for first time buyers had plunged to just 193,700.

Posted by miken @ 09:59 PM 11 Comments

This Message Is At The Bottom Of The Property Desription

Rightmove: Message To Buyers

Read the "MESSAGE TO BUYERS:" at the end of the details Can this be legal? I was truly outraged when I read it.

Posted by wdbeast @ 11:13 AM 21 Comments

Friday, January 14, 2011

How will this help savers?!

Daily Telegraph: Interest rates could rise by June

"Interest rates will start rising again by June - much earlier than had been expected - after a surprise jump in inflation, a move that would help Britain's 38 million savers" states Daily Telegraph. With factory gate inflation more than 12% BOE might raise IR to say 1%. So savers will still loose loads of money as the cost of money is still negative! Do we really pay the DT to produce such rubbish! Provided inflation stays less than 10% for 10 years I don't think BOE will raise interest rates anywhere near enough to control inflation.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 11:22 PM 29 Comments

An electric Aga? What's the point of that, then?

Evening Standard (much better value since it became a free sheet): Londoners are 'doubling up' on their Agas

"More and more London households are turning into “Two Aga” families according to William McGrath, chief executive of the stoves company. He put the popularity of the unit down to the rise of the electric Aga, which 10 years ago made up just 5% of the company's sales. Today they comprise more than half. "People can now programme their stoves so as the one in the basement kitchen in Knightsbridge goes off on Friday lunchtime the one in the cottage on the coast comes on in time to heat up the house for the weekend,” said McGrath."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 03:49 PM 24 Comments

The tide is turning

Citywire: Fix your mortgage before rates take off

Basically stating what we already know. Despite the BoE maintaining 0.5% interest rates, cheap deals are being pulled for more expensive replacements. I found the independent survey of sheeple's mortgage rate expectations particularly interesting. Is that a cloud on the horizon?

Posted by thebulltrap @ 02:53 PM 9 Comments

China hidden $1.5 TRILLION-report

Economic times: China hidden $1.5 TRILLION-report

another link TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION!

Posted by taffee @ 02:20 PM 2 Comments

Even china is at it-bet our banks are exposed

Cmbc: China has hidden $1.5 billion debt

china the world hope for recovery seems like a giant b**ls**t market itself...every country really in the world has the answer to the problem as taking on more debt

Posted by taffee @ 02:00 PM 10 Comments

When will they raise interest rates?

BBC: Factory gate inflation rate rises in December

Trash the pound and stuff gets more expensive. Who wants to hold the pound with RPI of 4.7%?

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 01:57 PM 5 Comments

Yay! Building Firm Flogs its Homes for HIGHER PRICES! Wonderful!!!!

BBC News: House price rise helps Bovis beat forecasts

Housebuilder Bovis Homes has said its full-year profit will beat expectations after the price of its homes rose by an average of £7,000 last year. However, the company, like many of its rivals, sounded a note of caution for the year ahead, suggesting trading conditions could remain "subdued" in the face of "ongoing economic uncertainty" and weak mortgage approval volumes.

Posted by mick rupert @ 12:02 PM 1 Comments

Buying your own home is now more viable than it was a year ago

An honest agent?

Estate Agent Today: Most homes are 15% over-priced, or ‘The Year in Numbers’

This is a review of the last year by Henry Prior dated 10/01/11 - a blogger at EAT. Gap between asking and sale prices "The gap between the average asking price recorded by Rightmove over the year and the average selling price recorded by the Halifax fell slightly to £66,757 – well below the peak of £75k reached in June 2009. This is, however, still well above the long-term average of £52k and by this measure suggests that most of the million homes currently for sale are typically overpriced by as much as 15%."

Posted by katalan1 @ 11:23 AM 0 Comments

Housing economics - it's all down to Snow & Demand

FTAdviser.com: Lowest amount of property sales in eight years

Terrible weather conditions in December as well as the holiday period led to the lowest amount of property sales since January 2003. The average estate agent branch sold four properties in December 2010, compared to January 2003 when the figure was two properties per branch, the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) claimed. In November 2010 the average branch sold seven properties.

Posted by jack c @ 11:14 AM 1 Comments

All quiet on the mortgage front

BBC: UK mortgage market remains quiet, say lenders

The quiet mortgage market continued in November with the number of loans advanced to people buying a home unchanged, an industry group has said. Detailed data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) confirmed the market's relatively stagnant nature. There were 44,000 loans provided for house purchases - the same as the previous month. This was down 15% on November 2009 when some buyers were trying to beat the end of the stamp duty holiday.

Posted by jack c @ 11:04 AM 14 Comments

As requested by Jack C.

Pollcode: Is gazundering fair game?

Answer 'Yes', 'No' or 'Other, please specify'.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:24 AM 2 Comments

A month makes them more pessimistic

The Negotiator: CBRE lowers house price forecast

CB Richard Ellis has lowered its 2011 housing market forecast, due to continued lending constraints and the impact on property transaction levels. As part of its Q1 forecast, the property group reveals that it expects prices to slump by 4% by the end of the year, which compares to the 3% decline it forecast in The Negotiator in December.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 10:24 AM 3 Comments

Big Numbers

BBC: US banks 'foreclosed on record 1m homes in 2010'

You can divide US statistics by five to adjust for smaller UK population.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:12 AM 1 Comments

All that pent-up demand and nowhere to go...

Estate Agent Today: Mortgage applications up by 33% as approvals slump

'Although mortgage approvals fell last year to an estimated 1.2m in total, applications bounced up by a third. In London, mortgage applications almost doubled. The claims are made in a new joint report by Mortgage Advice Bureau and Coreco. However, the report does not say how many of these applications were rejected. If correct, the report shows the huge scale of pent-up demand for mortgage finance.'

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:49 AM 2 Comments

Producer prices much higher

Yahoo news: December producer prices higher than expected

inflation is roaring away courtesy of quantitative easing allowing rbs,lloyds and goldman sachs to gamble on commodity prices...you couldn't really make it up could you

Posted by taffee @ 09:43 AM 0 Comments

Gazundering is now commonplace but is kept hush-hush

Mortgage Introducer: Gazundering on the rise as house prices fall

Figures from the Halifax show that UK house prices have continued to slip, falling 1.3% in December from the previous month. With agents desperate to keep buyers on board it is not surprising that gazundering - where buyers come in at the last minute requesting a price reduction for no reason - has become common place..................“Gazundering is commonplace but does not seem to receive the press coverage expressing the outrage that accompanies the opposite, gazumping, when a seller ups the price at the last minute. Interestingly gazundering is seen as fair game but gazumping as abhorrent.”

Posted by jack c @ 09:42 AM 8 Comments

Damn that snow!!!!

Sky news: House Sales Hit 8-Year Low In Snowy December

That is the lowest level since January 2003 and nearly half of the number sold in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) , according to the National Association of Estate Agents.

Posted by happy mondays @ 09:12 AM 0 Comments

C'mon Trichet!

WSJ: Europe's Central Bank Warns on Prices .

"ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet scrambled to counter an unexpected rise in euro-zone inflation, signaling that he won't hesitate to raise rates if recent signs of price pressures become firmly entrenched". "Money-market rates rose during Mr. Trichet's press conference, and the euro jumped above $1.33 against the U.S. dollar as investors reassessed their European interest-rate forecasts".

Posted by alan @ 09:05 AM 0 Comments

2010 record year in US foreclosures and the upcoming lost decade in housing.

My Budget 360: The road least pillaged – S&P 500 up 90 percent from bottom but housing values down 30 percent nationwide...

2010 goes down in the history books as the year with the highest number of US foreclosures. The S&P 500 Index is up a stunning 90 percent from the low reached in March of 2009. Yet all measures of “recovery” are largely absent for most Americans: -Home values have fallen by 30 percent from their peak and will continue to fall -Unemployment is still near its peak -New job growth is occurring in lower paying sectors of the economy -1 out of 3 Americans has no retirement savings so the stock market largely has little impact on them -Banks after being bailed out continue to swindle the American public, the same public that paid for their survival -The government is largely focused on sheltering and protecting their plutocracy on Wall Street

Posted by insanity @ 06:47 AM 0 Comments

House prices going up - Errr sorry going down

Bloomberg: U.K. House Prices Decline for Third Month as Lenders Restrict Mortgages

If only those damned banks would lend unreasonable, unaffordable ammounts, then house prices could remain at over inflated levels. And get this for initial market manipulation: 'Previously reported monthly price gains for October and November were revised to declines as more transaction data became available.'

Posted by markj69 str05 @ 05:11 AM 10 Comments

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Osborne to stop bank bonuses with angry poem

The Daily Mash: Osborne to stop bank bonuses with angry poem

Wish I'd seen this before posting the last one. I actually snorted tea out of my nose when I read it.

Posted by vindicated @ 10:47 PM 3 Comments

Credit Card Debtors Sleeping Like Babies

The Daily Mash: Credit Card Debtors Sleeping Like Babies

Just for kicks kids and just because I'm feeling more than a little grouchy and out of love with the economy.

Posted by vindicated @ 10:43 PM 0 Comments

They will try trick to prop up the market...(saw this article in printed version yesterday).

Evening Standard: First-time buyer loan for parents to help their children afford a home

Barratt Developments made its own bid to tackle the mortgage drought today by offering parents unsecured loans of up to £50,000 to help struggling offspring onto the housing ladder.

Posted by rental john @ 05:16 PM 0 Comments

Slow motion train crash - part deux

SKY: Petrol Prices To Hit £70 A Tank By Easter

"Motorists' pockets will be hit even harder this year as petrol retailers predict the average cost of filling up a tank could soar to £70" That means higher costs of farming fuel puts food prices up etc etc. Meanwhile, an HM Treasury spokesperson said: "In order to address the country's record budget deficit, it is necessary to implement the fuel duty increases already set and legislated for".

Posted by alan @ 04:15 PM 19 Comments

Ooops - This isn't supposed to happen!

Bloomberg: U.S. Foreclosure Filings May Jump 20% in 2011 as Crisis Peaks

"The number of U.S. homes receiving a foreclosure filing will climb about 20 percent in 2011, reaching a peak for the housing crisis, as unemployment remains high and banks resume seizures after a slowdown", RealtyTrac Inc. said. "About 3 million homes have been repossessed since the housing boom ended in 2006, Sharga said. That number could balloon to about 6 million by 2013, when the housing market may “absorb the bulk of distressed properties,” he said.

Posted by alan @ 04:01 PM 0 Comments

The recovery is locked-in.

City AM: Industrial output growth slows

'The strong manufacturing figures chime with recent industry surveys showing growth in the sector at a 16-year high at the end of 2010, and will not alter expectations the Bank of England will keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 per cent. Recent strong price data, however, has raised expectations that a UK rate rise is possible before the summer, and markets have shifted to price in two quarter-point rate hikes by the end of the year.' Whoopee-do...

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 03:10 PM 1 Comments

Why don't interest rates rise?

Blog: Vigilant? Pah!

There are two reasons why they don’t increase rates: 1.The banks are still insolvent in spite of all the bailouts they have had. 2.That the inflation we are suffering is not “bad” inflation.

Posted by neil @ 02:52 PM 0 Comments

More of the same

BBC News: UK interest rates remain at 0.5%

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has kept UK interest rates on hold at 0.5%, and unveiled no new quantitative easing (QE) measures. Both decisions were expected, but it will not be clear whether they were unanimous until the minutes of the meeting are released ... Economists have warned that while putting up interest rates may help reduce inflation, it would also restrict the spending power of homeowners with tracker mortgages and people repaying other debts - further endangering the recovery.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:07 PM 27 Comments

Yes, but which one(s)

Der Speigel: Survey of German bankers - at least one EZ country to go bust

E&Y survey shows over half German bankers expect an EZ country or more to go bust.

Posted by chrisch @ 12:31 PM 3 Comments

"Financial markets" loan-shark mechanism at works

Cheer-up. Is it great?: G Pytel

This is exactly tells you how the financial business works. Bonuses are a sideshow to what's going on in reality but also tells you whether bankers really deserve high pay, if any pay at all. Under a pretence of high finance these people implement primitive "good old" fraudulent mechanisms. If you are not perturbed and concerned about the future, you should be.

Posted by ant @ 12:19 PM 7 Comments

Bear Nibbles

Telegraph: Interest rate misery for home owners

"Three million people would struggle to pay their mortgage if interest rates rose by just 1 per cent, new research has disclosed. It comes amid widespread speculation that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year from their current level of just 0.5 per cent, where they have remained for the past two years. Home owners have enjoyed historically low rates in recent years, with many avoiding repossession as a result. But experts suggested a rate rise would cause “major problems” for millions of home owners who would struggle to keep the roof over their heads."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:41 AM 17 Comments

But it's completely different in the rest of the UK, of course

Belfast Telegraph: Housing market crisis set to worsen as prices keep falling

The article is just a write up of some guff from RICS, but I lilked the headline, as well as this bit: RICS Northern Ireland housing spokesman, Tom McClelland said: “We are all well aware of the factors that have been impacting on the local housing market, including |rising unemployment, the fear of cuts in public spending, and uncertainty linked to events in the Republic of Ireland. And the recent freezing"

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:39 AM 6 Comments

Yes, Inflation is going up

SKY: SkyMoney Panel: 'Inflation Could Hit 4.5%'

"Inflation will continue to rise and may reach 4.5%, well above the Bank of England's target, the Sky News Money Panel has suggested ahead of today's interest rate decision". "Although Lord Jones expects the base rate to remain on hold at 0.5% until autumn, a third of the panel think the change should come sooner".

Posted by alan @ 09:02 AM 4 Comments

Prudent savers shafted!

Telegraph: Pension payouts will be cut under reforms

"Prudent savers face significant cuts in their pensions because government reforms will lead employers to reduce contributions to their retirement funds, experts have warned". "Ros Altmann, the director general of the Saga Group and a former government pensions adviser, said the “well-intentioned” scheme could backfire".

Posted by alan @ 08:54 AM 7 Comments

Can it go higher in 2011?

FoxNews: Banks repossess 1 million homes in 2010

The bleakest year in foreclosure crisis has only just begun. Lenders are poised to take back more homes this year than any other since the U.S. housing meltdown began in 2006. About 5 million borrowers are at least two months behind on their mortgages and more will miss payments as they struggle with job losses and loans worth more than their home's value, industry analysts forecast. "2011 is going to be the peak," said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac Inc.

Posted by oneworld @ 08:14 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

VI or just stupid?

Love Money: Now is the time to buy property

Now is a good time to buy your own home, particularly because so many people think it isn't.

Posted by mr g @ 09:37 PM 22 Comments

Not long now mabe ????

Idependent: Higher interest rates

How long before they rise then ??

Posted by johnp @ 07:44 PM 0 Comments

Following on from yesterday's Telegraph article (posted by hpwatcher)

Fundstrategy: Virginia may create alternative to the dollar

The state of Virginia has outlined plans to provide an alternative to the dollar should the Federal Reserve’s policies lead to a crisis in the currency. Citing “many widely recognized” - although anonymous - “experts,” the House Joint Resolution argues there is a strong possibility the Federal Reserve system’s currency will inevitably be destroyed through hyperinflation. Gold or silver may be used directly as a form of coin or as models for a new system created by the Commonwealth.

Posted by jack c @ 04:51 PM 10 Comments

Fear not, just a series of temporary factors.

Financial Times: Inflation: A high price to pay

With some fearing that inflation might be on a 1970s-style persistent march higher, and others that current price rises are masking a 1990s-style Japanese deflation and debt trap where prices fall and debts rise compared with income, central banks have their work cut out. Either would require painful medicine to purge from the system. Rapidly rising food, clothes and footwear prices late last year pushed up UK inflation, which has now exceeded the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for 40 of the past 49 months. David Cameron, prime minister, at the weekend described UK inflation figures as “concerning because they’re well outside what the Bank of England is meant to deliver”.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 04:18 PM 7 Comments

HSBC thinks IRs are going up soon?

This is money: HSBC scraps tracker mortgage fees

"It is offering a best-buy lifetime tracker at 1.79 percentage points above base - giving a current rate of 2.29% - for those with 40% deposit or equity". "All trackers are arrangement fee-free until February 6".

Posted by alan @ 04:18 PM 6 Comments

Get ready for the great public property fire sale

Planet Property: Planet Property

Cash strapped councils are selling off publically owned land and property and the government is also selling off some of its vast portfolio...expect protests and bargains.

Posted by planet property @ 02:39 PM 0 Comments

Asking Prices Down 0.6% YoY

Home.co.uk: Home Prices Hit New Post-Crisis Low

Prices sliding but will a shortage of supply save the day once again?

Posted by tinecu @ 02:34 PM 1 Comments

Path to unearned riches.

Telegraph: Top tips for landlords to attract rising rents rather than rising damp

The usual guff spouted by the usual VIs substantiated by the usual suspects. Most significant is that the top four articles in the Telegraph's 'Personal Finance' section are all geared (no pun intended) towards BTL.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 01:47 PM 3 Comments

Auctions data shows price falls coming.

This is Money: Stalled auctions herald 2011 house price falls

Zoopla auctions price index indicates house price falls in 2011.

Posted by will @ 01:31 PM 1 Comments

Viva la export-led recovery!!!

Yahoo: November goods trade gap hits unexpected record high

Imports of oil and aircraft pushed Britain's goods trade deficit to a record high in November, in a development that will raise further concerns about fourth-quarter growth. "Exports are improving, they're going up, but just not as fast as imports," said BNP Paribas economist Alan Clarke.

Posted by general congreve @ 12:10 PM 2 Comments

In yer face Shappsy...

Estate Agent Today: Tough outlook as lenders continue to clamp down on mortgages

A challenging year lies ahead for the property industrywith the availability of mortgage finance tightly constricted. Hometrack, the property analytics business, reports today that home buyers face a continued struggle to obtain mortgages, with approvals expected to remain flat over the next 12 months. Hometrack, which provided automated valuations, expects lenders to approve just 575,000 mortgages for new home purchases this year. It also expects 355,000 remortgages, while 270,000 other borrowings will be secured on home-owners’ properties. “The benchmark has been reset and what we’re seeing now is a new norm in lending.”



Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 10:55 AM 2 Comments

Shappsy goes native

The Indepdendent: Minister issues warning on mortgage shake-up

"The Housing Minister will today step up the pressure on the City watchdog not to impose tough new mortgage rules which could make it harder for first-time buyers to get on to the property ladder. Grant Shapps is due to meet the head of the Financial Services Authority, Hector Sants, for an update on the regulator's controversial mortgage market review. The proposed new rules are causing concern among lenders, housebuilders and first-time buyers as it is feared they could make it even more difficult for people to get a mortgage if they are implemented in their current form."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:35 AM 20 Comments

Further to Drewster's blog...

Citywire: Morning Line: are buy-to-let landlords' fears justified?

"So why are a reported 15% of landlords worried about the introduction of rental caps for housing benefit? Could it be that they are charging more than the maximum allowed under the new rules? Landlords and agents’ organisations have dismissed charges of landlords profiteering from housing benefits. But it looks as though landlords are concerned that if tenants are made redundant and give up their rental property, they won’t be able to charge the same rent if they have to find a new tenant."

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:34 AM 10 Comments

Unsecured, but you need to be a homeowner?

Telegraph: Hitachi to offer £50,000 loans to parents of home-buyers

The financial services group has teamed up with Britain's biggest housebuilder, Barratt, to offer financial support to parents trying to help their children get on the housing ladder. Its £1bn fund will offer 12-year unsecured loans for parents to use as part of the deposit for their child's new home. The average age of an unassisted first-time buyer has jumped to 37, with lenders reluctant to offer higher loan-to-value mortgages. This has led to "the bank of mum and dad" becoming increasingly prevalent as a source of funding for deposits. However, many parents cannot afford to support their children or only do so through the remortgaging of their own property.

Posted by togger @ 06:56 AM 0 Comments

London still immune

BBC News: More tenants 'struggling to pay rent', says Arla

A rising number of tenants are struggling to pay rent to their landlords, according to industry data. Some 40% of landlords reported a rise in tenants having difficulty paying during the previous six months, the Association of Residential Lettings Agents (Arla) poll found. Three months earlier, only 35.9% of landlords reported problems. This is the first such rise in 18 months. Landlords also said more tenants were haggling over rent levels. However, tenants in London were less likely to have difficulties paying, even though rents were rising faster in London than the rest of the UK.

Posted by drewster @ 02:04 AM 4 Comments

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

How many economists does it take to see an $8tn housing bubble?

Guardian: America's housing bubble still deflating

"As they failed to spot the bubble, most economists seem oblivious of the threat of further market falls to come" They didn't fail to spot it, they chose to ignore it, too busy with their snowts in the troughs with the EAs, brokers & politicians, each one complicit in a crime of pure greed. "House prices in the United States are again declining and most of the economics profession remains clueless."

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:44 PM 7 Comments

Gold going mainstream?

Telegraph: You're insane if you don't own gold, investors told

'Robin Griffiths, a technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC: "I think not owning gold is a form of insanity. It may even show unhealthy masochistic tendencies, which might need medical attention." He added that the dollar was heading for "oblivion".'

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:49 PM 31 Comments

Take control of the money supply away from the *ankers

Positive Money: Prospects for 2011

If you want to preserve the value of your wealth and stop the *ankers messing up the world by not controlling the money supply then I would suggest that you join the Positive Money campaign.

Posted by tim @ 09:30 PM 0 Comments

Are bank equity or bank credit investors right?

Index Universe: Half Empty or Half Full?

There's an increasing divergence in the performance of indices referencing bank debt and bank credit default swaps in Europe. According to the credit markets, default risk is the highest it's been since March 2009 at the depths of the financial panic. Bank equity investors, however, are more relaxed about the financial sector's prospects. Who's right?

Posted by paul amery @ 07:32 PM 0 Comments

You ungrateful lot

Telegraph: Bankers will take bonuses because they weren't praised last year, says Lord Jones

Bankers pay themselves bumper bonuses this year just to p+ss people off

Posted by cyril @ 04:50 PM 4 Comments

"Report underlines how debt has become too readily accepted in the UK"

Mortgagestrategy: No worries until £15,000 in debt, say Britons

Britons only see themselves in serious financial difficulty once they are in over £15,837 of debt, according to Scottish Provident’s Financial Safety Net report. The younger generation have an even larger debt threshold of £16,646 of debt before finding themselves in serious financial difficulty. The over 55s debt thresholdis slightly lower at £14,424. Those living in the West Midlands have the highest regional debt threshold before being considered in financial difficulty, with an average figure of £17,118, compared to a lower £13,459 in Yorkshire and Humberside. But it is clear that the nation as a whole is worryingly immune to the financial reality of being so heavily in debt.

Posted by jack c @ 04:22 PM 6 Comments

Sorry, too busy laughing to think of witty strap-line.

Estate Agent Today: London agent attacks media 'mission' to prove housing market collapse

Synopsis: Waah, waah, waah... "The boss of Bushells attacks the media for reporting the slightest negative titbit (sic) in what he says is its decade-long mission to prove the housing market is collapsing. He points out that his own firm has had a great start to the New Year."

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 02:55 PM 16 Comments

Blizzards freeze market

Evening Standard: Blizzards freeze market

This article made me chuckle on my commute home yesterday evening, Russell Lynch (a perpetual property ramper) doesn't just mention the snow being a factor for house price falls in December but the ONLY reason for the falls, then only uses quotes from house builders / VIs to try to fool people :)

Posted by milo @ 01:21 PM 0 Comments

Hundreds of homebuyers brawl over apartments with developer

China Daily: Now that's a bubble mentality!

SHANGHAI - Hundreds of hopeful tulip buyers brawled in Zhejiang's provincial capital of Hangzhou on Saturday over suspicions a tulip farmer had unfairly distributed numbers determining the order of tulips' selection and purchase. A Dandy Holding Group official surnamed Gao declined to comment on the brawl but said the tulip farmer had made a mistake by issuing more numbers than there were tulips that he had with him that day and promised to offer them shares in the exciting South Sea Company instead.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 12:57 PM 5 Comments

Call to keep base rate on hold

FTAdviser.com: It's too soon to raise interest rates, warns Ruth Lea

An economic adviser has urged the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) not to increase interest rates on Thursday. Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, claimed this would be a good call despite the recent higher-than-expected inflation figures. The MPC will meet this week for the first time in 2011 and it is widely expected it will agree to keep the base rate at 0.5 per cent and no extension or withdrawal of quantitative easing. Ms Lea highlighted that the recent inflation data has been disappointing. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation has persistently stayed above three per cent throughout 2010, well above its two per cent target.

Posted by jack c @ 12:33 PM 20 Comments

Good to see their 'Customer Charter' has bedded-in well.

City AM: RBS hit with £2.8m FSA fine over complaints

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and its NatWest subsidiary have been fined £2.8m for poor handling of customer complaints. The Financial Services Authority (FSA) imposed the fine, finding there was an "unacceptably high risk" that the customers had been treated unfairly. http://www.rbs.co.uk/global/customer-charter.ashx

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:49 AM 6 Comments

The snake starts to eat its own tail

Yahoo: Japan to buy euro debt as Portugal resists bailout

A country with mindboggling debts of its own, promised on Tuesday to buy euro zone bonds this month in a show of support for Europe's struggle with a seething debt crisis. One assumes they are going to borrow the money to buy this debt, seeing as they are already broke. Can any one explain why this is a good idea or even possible in a sane world?

Posted by general congreve @ 11:22 AM 5 Comments

Extend your way out of negative equity!

Telegraph: Can you extend your way out of the property slump?

"If you don't have enough equity in your property to secure the most competitive mortgage rates, extending your home could be an innovative way of accessing cheaper finance. Once the improvement is complete and you have the property revalued, you may find you are eligible for a greater range of mortgages, because your home is worth more, but your home loan is at the same level."

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 10:09 AM 25 Comments

More Bear food from the Mail

Daily Mail (online): House prices could drop 10% in a year after average sale costs fell in 2010

Property experts are warning house prices could fall 10per cent this year after figures showed a bigger than expected reduction in December. The Halifax said prices fell by 1.3per cent in December against November, which was much higher than the 0.4per cent figure expected. This took the annual fall to 3.4per cent, which means the average house price has come down by £5,741 in the past year to £162,435. Capital Economics has been regularly warning of property market busts dating back to 2000.

Posted by jack c @ 10:06 AM 2 Comments

Flogging a dead horse

G Pytel: Euro is dead

Let's face it: Euro is finished. The question is whether it is going to be resurrected or buried.

Posted by ant @ 10:06 AM 6 Comments

Unpresendented in peacetime

Cnbc: Unpresedented in peacetime

clear article showing the complacency of investors...never before have countries across the world been in such poor financial health...investors think there will be no consequences

Posted by taffee @ 09:24 AM 2 Comments

The psychology of ZIRP?

Unbiased.co.uk: Ongoing low mortgage rates create an ‘interest rate-spoilt’ generation

A fascinating poll which was mentioned 'en passant' in today's Metro. While it's only a poll of over 2000 respondents, it provides an interesting insight into how almost two-years of 0.5% base rate has - unsurprisingly - effected an expectation of equally cheap credit. This can only end in tears. Karen Barrett, Chief Executive of unbiased.co.uk comments, “With the base rate now remaining at a record low of 0.5% for 21 months, possibly 22 months after next Thursday’s base rate decision, our tracked research shows this has had a dramatic effect on homeowners’ rate expectations."

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:24 AM 4 Comments

Monday, January 10, 2011

Council not asking enough?

Yahoo: Dorset beach goes on sale for £1

West Dorset District Council has decided to sell Eype beach near Bridport, as well as other properties, in a bid to save money on management and legal liability costs. 'Anticipated proceeds' from the sale of Eype beach have officially been recorded as £1 – but the price it will really cost is likely to be much higher. The council justified the low asking price by the fact that the beach doesn't generate any income.

Posted by mark @ 11:23 PM 2 Comments

7 Lost Years and Counting

Telegraph: House prices to fall to 2004 levels

Economists from IHS Global Insight and Capital Economics reveal their calculations and using the conservative Halifax data estimate homeowners will be left with properties worth less than at any time since the first quarter of 2004.

Posted by enuii @ 10:57 PM 14 Comments

Bailouts - latest!

Reuters: Portugal under pressure to seek EU/IMF aid - source

"Pressure is growing on Portugal from Germany, France and other euro zone countries to seek financial help from the EU and IMF to stop the bloc's debt crisis from spreading, a senior euro zone source said on Sunday". "The yield of five-year Portuguese bonds on the secondary market is 6.43 percent and 10-year paper trades at 7.26 percent".

Posted by alan @ 07:02 PM 11 Comments

What planet is Martin Ellis on?

FT Alphaville: There will be no UK house price fall in 2011

Some comment on today's figures from various economists - Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight is going for a 10 per cent decline by the end of the year. Gerard Lane at Shore Capital is looking for a 5-10 per cent decline. Good comments at bottom of the article.

Posted by katalan1 @ 05:30 PM 0 Comments

Let them stack shelves

Sky news: Jobs plans outlined at No 10 summit

Exciting plans from Conmoron's job summit to shop our way out of recession. Sainsbury's, Morrisons, Tesco, Co-op and Asda are all planning to expand. Asda is creading 15,000 'retail apprenticeships' to teach people the art of swiping barcodes.

Posted by cyril @ 05:04 PM 8 Comments

Analytical analysis of where 2011 might take us

Waleshome.org: Walls come tumbling down

Another thoughtfull piece of analysis from Cardiff surveyor Huw Williams.

Posted by david jones @ 04:48 PM 0 Comments

Bear food (second helping)

Daily Mail (online): Why house prices are heading South this year

‘Over the long term it would perhaps be desirable that house prices didn’t do very much at all,’ said Housing Minister Grant Shapps last week. This year he is likely to have his wish fulfilled – provided the interest base rate doesn’t go above one per cent, in which cases house prices will plummet. The weaker markets – Wales, Midlands, the North (where nearly a quarter of the workforce are in the public sector) – will fall harder than in the powerhouse of the English economy, the South East, and in its playground, the South West.

Posted by jack c @ 03:57 PM 8 Comments

Bear Food!

Daily Mail: Low equity? Stand by for seven per cent interest rates

"Get ready for seven in 2011 - because experts say seven per cent interest rates could be a reality for thousands of borrowers this year, even if the Bank of England base rate barely changes. Major lenders, including C&G, NatWest and Yorkshire Bank, are already charging almost seven per cent on some low-deposit and low-equity fixed-rate deals, while standard variable interest rates at building societies such as Newcastle and Nottingham are not far behind. Banks are trying to keep these high-cost deals under the radar by focusing on the super-cheap rates they offer to borrowers with plenty of equity in their homes."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:36 PM 3 Comments

This is a better headline

Telegraph: Typical house price to lose a quarter of its value

Unfortunately the figure is a 25% drop from peak, but I still like the inference.

Posted by wdbeast @ 01:11 PM 8 Comments

Fame at last...

Telegraph: Property apartheid: how falling house prices divide the generations

No wonder websites such as housepricecrash.co.uk have sprung up, positively wishing for prices to fall. Older homeowners may hope that prices will hold steady so they can use equity release to supplement pensions that have often proved disappointing. But they cannot expect their adult children to share these aspirations while rising numbers are forced to rent and pay their landlords’ mortgages.

Posted by j-hi @ 01:01 PM 0 Comments

Do not panic.

Citywire: Rising prices will not spur an interest rate hike

"The Bank of England's interest rate-setters are increasingly under fire as they continue to sit on their hands in spite of the rising prices that it is their job to control. Inflation in the UK was 3.3% in November, well above the central scenario of 1.5% the Bank had predicted a year earlier."

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:58 AM 2 Comments

No, not LVT unfortunately...

Citywire: A revolutionary cure for an insane housing market

"But it doesn’t take a long memory to be reminded of Shapps’s real priorities. Wasn’t it only December 30 when, on the subject of his forthcoming meeting with the FSA regarding mortgage regulations, he told the Financial Times it would be a mistake to ‘bolt the door’ when the housing correction has already taken place, and that the problem with the mortgage market is that ‘it is not competitive enough’?"

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:55 AM 5 Comments

Hot on the heels of the Halifax housing data..........

Bloomberg: Cameron Warns Governor King Has `Extremely Difficult Task' on U.K. Rates

U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said recent levels of inflation have been “concerning” as he offered Bank of England Governor Mervyn King his support in the “extremely difficult task” of setting interest rates. “That is what the Bank of England have to get right,” Cameron told the BBC’s “Andrew Marr Show” yesterday. “I’m in no doubt the inflation is extremely harmful, it destroys people’s savings. We don’t want to go back to having an inflation problem as we had in the past.”

Posted by jack c @ 11:16 AM 13 Comments

Cracking excuse...

Daily Mail: House prices fall 1.3% in December says Halifax

"Philip Clarke, a director of property consultant Fisher Property Services, said: 'The December figure will dampen spirits but we do not expect falls like this to continue throughout 2011. The shortage of transactions during the month of December will also accentuate any price falls.'" ?? Doth not compute. You might as well argue that a "shortage of transactions accentuated price rises" or "shortage of transactions reduced price falls".

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:54 AM 2 Comments

Has the worm turned?

Daily Express: HOUSE PRICES FALL 3.4% IN YEAR

House prices fell by 3.4% during 2010 after sliding by 1.3% in December alone, Halifax has said.

Posted by rantnrave @ 10:14 AM 5 Comments

Sky's write up of that Halifax press release

Sky News: House Price Decline Accelerates In December

House prices declined by much more than forecast last month, driven by buyers staying away from the property market. That is according to Halifax, which calculates property values fell by 1.3% in December. The decline, the lender says, means house prices fell by 3.4% during 2010. Annual house price inflation - which compares average prices during the three months to the end of December with the same period a year earlier - was running at minus 1.6%. That is its lowest level since November 2009... Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis said "We expect limited movement in house prices during 2011 but with the risks on the downside. Current signs that homeowners are becoming more reluctant to sell would, if continued, help reverse the imbalance between buyers and sellers."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:08 AM 0 Comments

The BBC Take on The Halifax Price Fall

BBC News: UK house prices fell 1.3% in December, Halifax says

Loads of priceless quotes in this article, my favourite is; "the right type of property is still commanding the right sort of price," said James Scott-Lee, chairman of the Chancellors Group of estate agents." Just what "the right price" is, I am not sure!

Posted by wdbeast @ 09:45 AM 1 Comments

-1.3% MoM -1.6% YoY

Halifax: December Index

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said: "Prices in the final three months of 2010 were 0.9% lower than in the previous quarter. This rate of decline is significantly less than the quarterly falls of 5-6% during the second half of 2008. House prices fell by 1.3% between November and December." Whatever.

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 08:28 AM 27 Comments

Sunday, January 9, 2011

London's Burning

Clouded Outlook: London's property market is burning up

A colourful chart showing property price developments by London borough. The market seems to have brightened up, but can it continue into 2011?

Posted by inflationwatch @ 08:15 PM 0 Comments

HMRC will be waiting for returns from landlords

HMRC: Owners of rental properties advised to regularise their affairs before new tax crackdown in 2010

With the boom in rentals, especially around London, the HMRC is the biggest one to benefit. Increase rentals, low interest and a boom in accidental landlord’s means one thing, individuals with poorly planned tax affairs and tax evaders will be hammered through tax on Schedule A and fines. And they were warned a year ago!! Lets see how long they hold on to those houses.

Posted by patrickj @ 03:06 PM 0 Comments

End this annual bankers bonuses farce

G Pytel: Happy New Year 2011, Prime Minister (and sort out this mess, please)

The bankers' bashing farce in their annual bonus season is a downright farce. It is designed to divert the public attention from the truth that the financial system is bust and that nothing is done to solve this. Looks like a politicians and bankers cynical ploy.

Posted by ant @ 02:39 PM 5 Comments

Oil, Food, Commodities - UP

Telegraph: Inflation set for new high as pay slumps

"New data has revealed that employees are suffering painful real-term pay cuts as salary increases fail to keep up with the rate at which prices are rising, according to the take home pay indices to be published by the payments processor VocaLink". 3.8% CPI very soon?

Posted by alan @ 01:34 PM 2 Comments

Yes a figure of derision on HPC but....

Bloomberg: Blanchflower on BOE

2:50 in " the private sector picking up jobs from the public sector is the economics of cloud cuckoo land" "hopefully we wont be talking about big increases in unemployment in 6 months time..... but i bet we are" 5:30 AC says "you favour keeping interest rates low whatever happens to inflation do you?" DB sighs and then says.....

Posted by techieman @ 11:28 AM 24 Comments

10% price falls expected

The Sunday Telegraph: Is now the time to seal a mortgage deal?

The article is about whether you should seal a mortgage deal now before rates go up, but it's the sub-title that caught my eye. We could do with more headlines like that to get sellers to accept the inevitable fall that's on the way. With house price to earnings ratios still above those of 1988 it won't be just 10%.

Posted by monty032 @ 11:23 AM 1 Comments

Saturday, January 8, 2011

More data from Savills

FT: Property wealth gap widening

Some further information using that Savills data in the FT article posted by dill. - In 2000, the housing stock was valued overall at £1,400 billion, with overall LTV at 77% (£322 billion in equity). - In 2010, overall housing stock value is £2,900 billion, with overall LTV at 70% (£870 billion in equity). I assume these numbers are not inflation adjusted, meaning: - a 19% fall in house values would return us to the 2000 level of £322 billion in overall equity. (Some may believe this is impossible) - adjusting for inflation (I think I’ve calculated right that £870 billion in 2010 is equal to £671 billion in 2000 pounds – I am using CPI inflation though) the fall would have to be about 12%. (More people might believe this is possible).

Posted by nathan @ 02:01 PM 7 Comments

Americas meltdown

Telegraph: Debt default fears will spread to US and Japan, warns Citigroup's Willem Buiter

It is only a matter of time before the US will have to raise funds by issuing debt offering "significantly higher" returns to bondholders, to reflect the level of risk surrounding it, they added.

Posted by happy mondays @ 12:25 PM 15 Comments

Held to ransom - or too heavy to support?

FT: A south-east Englishman’s home is his fortune

The article cites analysis of UK homes over the past decade from Savills, and includes an interactive chart of regional 'worth' each year over the period. Notable points include: - London and the South East comprise more than a third of UK housing wealth. - Those aged over 45 account for approx. 83% of UK housing wealth. - 40% of equity in the UK housing market is governed by those aged over 65. - Savills' analysis claims that the average LTV across the whole of the UK residential market is 30%. You'll need to register (free for 10 articles a month) with the FT to read the piece, in respect of copyright.

Posted by dill @ 11:36 AM 9 Comments

Credibility! What credibility?

Bloomberg: BOE May Raise Rate by Record on Inflation, SocGen Says

'The Bank of England will probably increase interest rates this year by the most since it gained independence in 1997 or face losing its credibility, Societe Generale SA Chief U.K. Economist Brian Hilliard said. ' The BOE has no mechanism for controlling inflation when its influences are outside the UK. And Blanchflowers video just confirms how important teh BOE think house prices are to teh economy.

Posted by markj69 str05 @ 11:26 AM 12 Comments

Housing issues are a global problem

Le Figaro: 2.9M people live in inadequate housing in France

Like the UK, France has its problems. Some light weekend reading for you.

Posted by chrisch @ 10:26 AM 5 Comments

Friday, January 7, 2011

The debt problem is far from over - Is worse still to come?

Cnn: Fear for Portugal grow as debt costs soar

Recent statements from the USA appear to suggest that the federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path with little being done to address the threat and that persistently high unemployment, by damping household income and confidence, could threaten the strength and sustainability of the recovery. The question is why the USA credit rating was thus far not lowered or the market did not react in the same way as it did with Greece, Ireland and now Portugal. Does this mean that the market is more concerned about Europe/relaxed the USA will not default or it is simply a question of time before another global finantial crises arise?

Posted by aghabe @ 10:02 PM 0 Comments

Very light bear nibbles before we clock off...

Evening Standard: Housing market lenders reining in after dip

"Britain's stagnant housing market meant lenders reined in the availability of loans in the last three months of last year and saw losses from bad home loans rise for the first time since early 2009." Laura is on fire in the comments: "Banks are expecting lower house prices, hence the requirement for large deposits. The punter takes the risk, not the bank. FTBs are expecting lower house prices, hence the lack of demand for mortgages." Is she one of us? (And have I beaten SBC's record for number of articles posted in a day yet?)

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:00 PM 6 Comments

How come we didn't make more of a song and dance about this?

UK Insolvency Advice: John Charcol’s

"Documents filed on Companies House reveal that John Charcol had liabilities of over £3.7m when it entered into voluntary liquidation earlier this year. The mortgage brokerage was bought from administrators Grant Thornton in February by Towergate Financial. It officially entered into voluntary liquidation on April 6 at which time it had outstanding liabilities of £3,726,834. The bulk of this debt was owed to Lloyds TSB Bank, which was owed just over £1.2m. Towergate Financial bought the staff, assets, brand, customers and services of John Charcol when it entered into administration. It also made arrangements so the brokerage’s customers were protected by professional indemnity insurance and did not suffer any loss."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 03:47 PM 5 Comments

Ah diddums!

Daily Telegraph: Expats in Spain struggle to sell properties

"Expat home owners in Spain have been warned that they need to reduce the asking price of their homes if they want to make a sale." In other news, owner of five year old second hand car told he can only sell it for a third of the price of a new one.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 03:00 PM 4 Comments

There is zero issue with the solvency of the us and uk

Pragmatic Capitalist: Deficit hysteria and the debt ceiling

It is regarded as almost beyond argument that the UK and the US have a serious debt problem. Many here have spoken about the insolvency of these states and an impending hyper inflationary episode, with the rush into PM's is as a reaction to this. Where I am alway suspicious of extreme views (especially those of the end is nigh variety) the comments in the attached article are worth a serious read by anyone who wants to try and be scientific about what they are saying and thinking. I'd add that in many cases the quality of comments rather puts us here on HPC to shame. The link below is also worth reading as a description of how the modern monetary system works. Excellent stuff. http://pragcap.com/resources/understanding-modern-monetary-system

Posted by bellwether @ 01:55 PM 11 Comments

Same old same old

Money Market: Shapps' call sparks fears at Government house price control

If house prices are going up, that is a triumph of free markets and enterprise. If they are stable, that is because of heinous and iniquitous "government hosue price controls". To be honest, the government has all the tools it needs to make house prices as high or low as it wishes, as long as you are prepared to ignore the damage to the rest of the economy.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:02 PM 10 Comments

"Can I have some more please Sir?"

Yahoo: Ireland to re-enter debt markets as soon as possible

Ireland's debt management agency said on Friday it would resume borrowing as soon as market conditions permit, noting that the country's three year-EU/IMF funding support did not preclude it from doing so. The yield on Irish 10-year bonds stood at 9.38 percent on Friday, well above the 5.8 percent interest rate offered by the package agreed in November as Ireland's fiscal and banking problems threatened the wider euro zone.

Posted by general congreve @ 12:50 PM 1 Comments

NIMBY of the week

Leicester mercury - Reader's Letter: High-speed route to falling property prices?

"It's no wonder that the county council do not want the public to know the likely sites for the proposed high-speed rail link in the county. It's a sure thing that property prices will crash. They must have remembered the price crash in the city 35 or so years ago when the Eastern Relief Road was the then threat – and all to appease the "Great Motoring Public". It was not, in the end, built – thank heaven – but it took years for house prices to recover. Strange to relate, however, that when I used to comment on planning applications in the city, and both myself and others quoted likely harm to property values, officers' recommendations to development control said that: "The effect on property values of the application cannot be a valid objection under planning law" (!)"

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:42 PM 10 Comments

Coalition government ‘botched’ cull of quangos, warn MPs

Citywire: Coalition government ‘botched’ cull of quangos, warn MPs

The coalition government ‘botched’ its flagship plans to cull 192 quangos, a cross-party panel of MPs has said, warning that the programme will neither improve accountability nor deliver significant savings.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 12:24 PM 1 Comments

Fraser Nelson hammers not so Mystic Merv

The Spectator: King's Ransom

How much bigger does Britain's inflation have to become before Mervyn King realises it’s a problem? The VAT rise should have lifted prices by 2.1 percent – but shopkeepers over Britain have been applying far larger rises. Why? Because one of the most important factors in economics – expectation of inflation – is back. People are bracing themselves for another year of rising heat, transport and staff costs – so retailers hike up prices in anticipation, and a vicious spiral of inflation begins. The Retail Price Index was up 4.8 percent last November, and Consumer Price Index 3.3 percent. The price of this failure of monetary policy is paid by ordinary taxpayers, whose wages stand no chance of keeping up with the rise in prices.

Posted by montesquieu @ 11:15 AM 7 Comments

Some ways to stop house price bubbles

Moneyweek: Credit is what drives house prices.

Housing minister Grant Shapps wants to keep house prices down by building more. The author suggests inflation linked capital gains tax on main property, house price mandate added to BofE, and greater security through tenancy rights to make renting a viable longer term option.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 10:35 AM 6 Comments

Cap'n, we need more air; this bubble is deflating!

Estate Agent Today: Bolton King and Cameron hit out at tightening of mortgages

Nothing new to see here. We'll find out soon enough whether Cameron is simply playing to the gallery or if - as has been touted on here - if it's a case of 'meet the new boss'. This calls to mind the strong-arming the Telegraph et al undertook prior to the CGT increase; arguably it worked for them....

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 10:34 AM 0 Comments

Ramper returns

Telegraph: Rosie Millard: The Inside Story

The high priestess of rampers returns... A former star of the BBC newsroom, Rosie Millard has rented, renovated and spearheaded the buy-to-let boom. Now joining the Telegraph as Property’s homes and interiors expert, she talks to Jasper Gerard

Posted by crashpope @ 10:32 AM 0 Comments

Unluckiest House Number

BBC News: Unluckiest House Number

Fate has come knocking at door number 243 more than any other house in the UK, a price comparison website says. More home insurance claims were made by those living at 243 than from any other since January 2007, a Confused.com analysis of its database found.The unscientific study, which uses information from visitors to the website, found that number 201 was next on the list, followed by number one. ...Leave you to your own conclusions on this one!

Posted by blackers @ 09:44 AM 0 Comments

Quick; we need more tanning salons, tout suite!

Telegraph: UK recovery threatened by weak services sector

Well, not much to cheer about here. In a nutshell: manufacturing is only growing via exports thanks to a weakened sterling and the services sector has contracted because we can't afford to go out as much. Hurrah! In fairness - as the article is at pains to point out - one swallow does not a summer make. However, the data contained enough bad news to knock any resurgent confidence. “Bad weather undoubtedly hit service sector business in December, but there are also clear signs that domestic demand has weakened as households and business continued to rein in spending,” Mr Williamson said.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:22 AM 2 Comments

Thursday, January 6, 2011

You fools...we have to borrow more!

Bloomberg: Geithner Urges US Debt Limit Increase, Warns of Default

"Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said lawmakers must raise the federal borrowing limit in the first quarter of 2011 or risk a default on U.S. debt and a loss of access to global credit markets". A bit of brinkmanship coming up, I think!

Posted by alan @ 08:41 PM 4 Comments

Predatory Lending Risk

Recovery? Or just the credit cancer spreading again?

Counterpunch: Printing a recovery

When a bank issues a loan to someone who can't repay that's counterfeiting, i.e., theft, especially when the bankster gets paid on the front end of the transaction. But don't worry about that - sub-prime loans in the US are alive and well again, including 140% LTV (to sub-prime customers) - although that's for cars, not houses. Then there are backdoor housing loans of 100% LTV (without a credit scoring) as long as the borrower pays an upfront 3.5% fee - which most roll over into the loan. And then there are student loans - up 80% in a year since the government stepped in to buy them. When you subtract inventory restocking and excessive credit you wonder just how stable the stabilisation of the economy is.

Posted by icarus @ 06:58 PM 1 Comments

What is the cause of underoccupation?

Guardian: * Comment is free Let's take the housing fight to wealthy owners with empty spare rooms

The issue is surplus housing – the remarkable growth of space that people don't need. Between 2003 and 2008 (the latest available figures), there was a 45% increase in the number of under-occupied homes in England. The definition of under-occupied varies, but it usually means that households have at least two bedrooms more than they require.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 05:04 PM 11 Comments

Take that, David Cameron!

BBC: Mortgage demand dip predicted by lenders

Demand for home loans is expected to fall in the coming months as the mortgage market continues to stagnate. Lenders believe that demand for mortgages for house purchases will drop in the first three months of 2011 as people delay decisions to move. The views are reported in the Bank of England's Credit Conditions Survey, with lenders also expecting the recent jump in remortgaging demand to stall. However, mortgage availability could pick up, the report said

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:22 PM 2 Comments

More madness on the way

Moneymarketing: Prime Minister says lenders are too cautious

Prime Minister David Cameron says banks and building societies are being too cautious and are inhibiting the housing market. Cameron says the UK’s housing market is vital to the UK economy and called on lenders to return to “respectable” lending in order to stimulate growth, He says: “In a way the pendulum has now swung too far the other way. “If you are a single person, you are earning a decent salary. You go to the bank or building society, you are actually quite a good risk - they won’t give you 80 per cent of the value, they won’t give you four times your salary.”

Posted by jack c @ 11:46 AM 50 Comments

What credibility?

Bloomberg: BoE Policy Panel Concerned About Credibility On Inflation

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is concerned about losing its credibility on price stability, the Wall Street Journal reported. U.K. consumer price inflation has been above 3% since the start of last year and is likely to reach 4% in the next few months. As recently as last February, however, the nine-member U.K. central bank panel was forecasting that inflation would fall to 1 percent by the end of 2010.

Posted by little professor @ 11:34 AM 5 Comments

Twigs in vases 2009; LED lights 2010; 2011? Mood lighting...

Houseladder: Mood lighting could give homeowners' properties the wow factor

What the heck; i'm on a roll so here is some more comedy to brighten a gun-metal grey day... Whatever happened to the humble 60 watt lightbulb?

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:20 AM 6 Comments

The future's bright; the future's serfdom.

Citywire: Buy-to-let investing: the outlook for 2011

James Davis, chief executive of Upad, sums up the situation saying, ‘we’ve seen tenant enquiries close to double in the second half of the year to what they were six months ago. But landlords don’t exist in a bubble. They’re held back by banks who just don’t want to lend money, and more than ever, are at the mercy of tenants who either can’t or won’t pay their rent.’ He believes that the situation will get worse as government cuts bite deeper. ‘Landlords more than ever need to be vigilant about their cash flow and ensure that – if the worst happens and their tenant does stop paying – they have enough available cash to service a mortgage without their rental income.’

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 10:16 AM 10 Comments

That, is the sound of inevitability...

Guardian: Credit cards used to pay mortgage or rent by 2 million people

More than 2 million people have used credit cards to pay their mortgage or rent, an increase of almost 50% in a year, according to the housing and homelessness charity Shelter. Research for Shelter conducted in August found that 6% of the 2,200 questioned had used credit cards to meet their housing costs in the previous 12 months. This compares to 4% in November 2009, and suggests a national figure of more than 2 million people who are making desperate last attempts to keep a roof over their heads.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:39 AM 6 Comments

...and lo did the forsaken FTBs rejoice!

Guardian: First-time buyers offered help in housing market

Comedy piece from yesterday's Guardian. Mmm, 90% LTV, 2-year fixed @ 5.79%? Lemme at it. Enter Jack from stage left to rip this, ahem, advertisement to shreds.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:30 AM 3 Comments

Yields on EU bonds rise

Telegraph: EU plans for bondholder haircuts unsettles debt markets

"The European Commission will on Thursday press ahead with plans to spread the burden of EU bank failures to senior bondholders, marking the start of harsher times for Europe’s creditors".eg:"Portugal managed to sell €500m (£425m) of debt at a crucial auction but had to pay 3.67pc on six-month bills, double the rate in September".

Posted by alan @ 08:34 AM 2 Comments

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Mixed bag

MSN money: 2011 house price predictions

Esther Shaw pens an article suggesting that we will see a clear North/South Divide this year but most areas close to the South East will, at worst, experience a small dip in 2011 followed by a compensating recovery in 2012. Ostensibly, there's still plenty of optimism out there unless you live in the North or Wales.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:40 PM 2 Comments

Why George's ski trip was just the start of the slippery slope

The Independent: Why George's ski trip was just the start of the slippery slope

Even for his natural allies, the Chancellor’s £11,000 Swiss ski break was a little much to stomach. Like an excess of cheesey fondue followed by an ultra-cold lager, the Chancellor’s apparently care-free vacation has provoked some unpleasant après-ski indigestion.

Posted by rental john @ 05:41 PM 2 Comments

Sorry - not HPC - but are we on our way to another .com bubble?

The Independent: Facebook cash injection values company at £32bn

The move places the company at twice the value of internet giant Yahoo - and roughly equal to well-established names such as aerospace firm Boeing and Kraft Foods. Google, by contrast, is valued at 190 billion US dollars (£122 billion).

Posted by rental john @ 05:18 PM 0 Comments

Get out of the sterling while you can!

Kitco Metals Commentators Corner: Serious Problems ahead for the British Pound

When the pound crashes against other currencies it will mean a de facto crash in property prices (as long as your money is stashed in a safer currency! James Turk commenting in Kitco says: "I had always thought that the US dollar would hyperinflate and collapse before any other major currency. Lately, I am not so sure. Government spending and borrowing in the UK look even worse than the dire levels being reached in the US. Therefore, the dubious distinction of being the first currency to hyperinflate in the months ahead may end up going to the British pound."

Posted by spiderchannel @ 05:02 PM 0 Comments

The future's bright.

Telegraph: HSBC sees China and America leading global mega-boom

"The greatest global boom of all time has barely begun. Over the next forty years, economic growth will quicken yet further as the rising powers of Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America reach their full stride."

Posted by shipbuilder @ 04:54 PM 13 Comments

Just wait until interest rates go up (some time in 2015)

Evening Standard: Londoners take in lodgers to pay mortgages

Record numbers of Londoners are renting out spare rooms to earn extra cash. Nearly 200,000 British households took in lodgers last year — up 21 per cent on 2009 — earning about £860million, according to new research. The biggest rise was in London, where demand for rented rooms is the highest in the country. September saw the largest number of homeowners advertising for lodgers, and the trend is expected to continue as people struggle to keep up mortgage repayments amid 20 per cent VAT and an anticipated rise in interest rates.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:14 PM 18 Comments

Death by outmoded business model

Guardian: HMV issues profit warning after grim Christmas

Nick Bubb, analyst at Arden Partners, warned that HMV will probably have to be broken up. "Something can be salvaged from the wreckage, as a break-up involving the potential sale of Waterstone's could just about keep the group alive," Bubb said. *Not the Dr Bubb, surely?*

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 03:40 PM 1 Comments

Per title

Bank investment consultant: Did Dodd-Frank Resolve the 'Too Big to Fail' Issue or Give It New Life?

know its a few weeks old but the question remains.... will the act guarantee there will be no more "too big to fail" or will there be a fudge...???? If you have insomnia you might want to read the whole thing - its around 900 pps. http://financialservices.house.gov/FinancialSvcsDemMedia/file/key_issues/Financial_Regulatory_Reform/conference_report_FINAL.pdf

Posted by techieman @ 01:34 PM 2 Comments

Can self-build solve the housing crisis?

Planet Property: Planet Property

Grant Shapps believes self-build is the answer, but will it work?

Posted by the planet @ 01:27 PM 0 Comments

TIS - "Britain's pensioners are the fastest growing group of bankrupt individuals in the UK"

FTAdviser.com: Pensioners are fastest growing bankrupt group

Britain's pensioners are the fastest growing group of bankrupt individuals in the UK according to the Insolvency Service.The Insolvency Service said although levels of bankruptcy among men and women aged over-65 were the lowest in the UK, the numbers of bankrupt individuals in this age group have increased six times in a decade and at a 50 per cent faster rate than for other age groups. In 2010, despite a slight drop, the number of people entering into formal insolvency procedures remained relatively high, showing that more needs to be done to encourage people to manage their money better, and where possible, to avoid insolvency.

Posted by jack c @ 12:23 PM 4 Comments

Bob and Mary explain what happened in Ireland

Planet Property: Planet Property

Amusing animation explaining Irish crisis

Posted by the planet @ 12:15 PM 0 Comments

Research on the Changing Face of Britain's Landlords

Simply Business: The Changing Face of Britain's Landlords

Simply Business are a UK Landlord Insurance specialist who have been doing some research into how the Landlord market has changed since 2006. Interestingly their analysis shows a significant change in both the age and gender of UK Landlords with a younger breed of Landlords entering the private rental market.

Posted by hannah smith @ 11:54 AM 0 Comments

Grant Shapps housing markets comments come under heavy fire

London Evening Standard: London can’t afford falling house prices

Housing minister Grant Shapps has declared that he finds it “horrendous” that young home-buyers are priced out of the market. His answer is “house-price stability”, with a small real-terms drop in prices. It's a sentiment that most twentysomethings I know would endorse. I sympathise. But his comments suggest to me a worrying naivety about the housing market, especially the capital's.

Posted by jack c @ 11:22 AM 25 Comments

More Bear Nibbles

Daily Mail: Rate rise fears spark rush to remortgage as number switching loans to a rival jumps 42%

Panicked homeowners are rushing to remortgage because they fear interest rates are about to rocket, experts said yesterday. Figures from the Bank of England revealed a 42 per cent jump in the number of people remortgaging, compared to the same month in 2009. In November, 34,262 switched their loan to a rival bank or building society, the highest number for two years. This figure compares to 23,973 in November 2009. The rush to remortgage is fuelled by growing fears that the Bank is finally on the verge of raising rates. The base rate has been stuck at 0.5 per cent since March 2009, the longest period of ‘frozen’ rates since the aftermath of the Second World War. But there is a growing suspicion among economists, mortgage experts and business lobby groups that the base rate will rise...

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:05 AM 3 Comments

But where can we build them?

Daily Mail: Grand Designs Britain: 'Housebuilding revolution' will encourage us all to build our own homes, say ministers

Planning rules which frustrate people wanting to build their own homes are to be ‘torn down’ under plans for a ‘housebuilding revolution’. Housing minister Grant Shapps will today launch an initiative to encourage self-build homes popularised by Channel 4 programme Grand Designs. Mr Shapps said the Government wanted the idea of ‘building your own home’ to become mainstream, rather than just the preserve of the wealthy. Under the proposals, communities will have greater say over planning rules and locations where homes can be built. Officials will hold talks with the National Self Build Association, which campaigns on the issue, to identify potential barriers. They will also investigate releasing plots of public land and work with banks to encourage lending.

Posted by drewster @ 09:42 AM 6 Comments

Buy-to-let lenders warned if interest rates rise

Estateagenttoday.co.uk: Buy-to-let lenders warned if interest rates rise

Specialist lender Paragon has warned that buy-to-let borrowers could face critical financial problems if interest rates rise.

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:10 AM 2 Comments

Savers get shafted

Clouded Outlook: UK bank savers lose £350 billion since the crisis began

The Bank of England interest rate cuts are a massive subsidy for mortgage borrowers. Depositers have lost £350 billion since the crisis began.

Posted by inflationwatch @ 03:55 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

One 'to continue' to watch in 2011

The Economist: Dubai - Debt forgetfulness - The bailed-out emirate insists that it is bouncing back.

One concern is how Dubai will meet its future payments. In 2010 debt was rescheduled rather than repaid. In 2011 Dubai’s state-owned and quasi-sovereign entities are due to repay $18 billion of principal. Abu Dhabi was willing to help when crisis hit, but it is tightening its purse-strings and some of its own property companies are struggling.

Posted by rental john @ 05:15 PM 0 Comments

Most homes for sale are 15% over-priced

Housing Expert: The Year in Numbers

A cracking start to 2011 with a look back with Henry Pryor's Year in Numbers comparing 2010 with previous years. As usual he provides the raw market numbers but breaks with tradition with the classic comment "... most of the million homes currently for sale are typically overpriced by about 15%."

Posted by charles lister @ 03:32 PM 0 Comments

More Bear Nibbles

Telegraph: House prices warning despite increase in mortgages

Around 48,018 loans were approved for people buying a property in November, up from 47,315 the previous month, according to the Bank of England. The modest increase ends six consecutive months during which approvals for house purchases had declined. But it is well below the 70,000 to 80,000 approvals regarded to be consistent with a stable market. It comes amid an increase of 12 per cent in the number of properties sold at auction in November compared with a year earlier, according to the National Association of Valuers and Auctioneers.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:01 PM 4 Comments

Byron Wien announces

Investment Postcards: Byron Wien announces

Byron Wien of Blackstone yesterday issued his list of "The Ten Surprises for 2011" - one of the most widely anticipated lists of 2011. "forecasts".

Posted by prieur du plessis @ 11:45 AM 0 Comments

Mortgage approvals and net lending latest

Bloomberg: U.K. Mortgage Approvals Stayed Close to Lowest in Eight Months in November

U.K. mortgage approvals stayed close to an eight-month low in November as banks kept up their squeeze on lending, constraining the property market. Lenders granted 48,019 loans to buy homes, compared with 47,315 in October, the Bank of England said today in London. Economists forecast 46,500, according to the median of 11 predictions in a Bloomberg News survey. Net mortgage lending was 788 million pounds ($1.2 billion) compared with 1.2 billion pounds the previous month.

Posted by jack c @ 10:37 AM 23 Comments

UK Transport inflation out of control

BBC News: Protests over rail fare increase

A campaign against rail fare rises has begun as millions of commuters return to work after the Christmas break. The Campaign for Better Transport asked passengers at London's Charing Cross station to sign petitions, write to the government and take part in protests. Season ticket prices rose by an average 5.8% from Sunday - with some up by as much as 13%.

Posted by cool_hand @ 09:47 AM 0 Comments

The real face of inflation 8%?

Telegraph: VAT change will be used to hide 8pc price rise

The cost of many goods and services will rise by more than three times the rate of the VAT increase as businesses use the tax to mask a more dramatic price review, leading industry experts warn today. The rate of Value Added Tax rose by 2.5 percentage points at midnight, from 17.5 per cent to 20 per cent – an attempt by the Coalition to reduce the deficit. But analysts believe many gyms, mobile phone companies, restaurants and shops will raise their prices by between 5 per cent and 8 per cent, or possibly more.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 05:43 AM 13 Comments

Tax land, not goods and services

Guardian: There is an alternative to the VAT rise

VAT hammers the poor hardest, because they spend almost all their meagre incomes, whereas the rich save a big chunk of theirs [in housing]. The government should levy a tax on land values. Since all the land in Britain is worth some £5 trillion, an annual levy of 1% could raise £50bn a year – without depressing economic activity, because land is in fixed supply: central London can't be spirited away to a tax haven. As well as preventing property bubbles (and busts), a land tax would be fair. A mere 160,000 people (mostly hereditary landowners) own more than two-thirds of Britain – and the value of that land increases not through their own striving, but through that of others.

Posted by drewster @ 03:07 AM 32 Comments

UK citizens swap jewellery for food

Bloomberg: Tesco Offers to Take Customers’ Jewelry for Cash, Times Report

Let's say it like it actually is. Bit of a bleak development really.

Posted by stillthinking @ 02:22 AM 6 Comments

Monday, January 3, 2011

A call for proactive reform

Independent: Leading article: It will take more than words to make property affordable

Britain, at last, has a housing minister who recognises that it is not his job to sit idly by while housing becomes more expensive. In an interview at the weekend, Grant Shapps identified the social problems created by house price inflation very well: a generation of young people with scant prospect of ever owning their own home.

Posted by dill @ 06:57 PM 1 Comments

A total failure of neoliberalism

Counterpunch: The Irish crisis

Low company tax, deregulation, high growth, low unemployment, no budget deficit, the envy of small euro nations. But the total of stockmarket capitalisation, bond issues and bank assets was 14 times GDP, and bank deposit guarantees were 3 times GDP. See how quickly this card castle collapsed, and how drastic the resulting austerity measures became. Still, with investors borrowing at 1% and lending to Ireland at 6% it isn't gloom for all. (Note: debts, assets etc. are often compared to GDP (€170bn), but a more appropriate measure would be GNP (€139bn) since the latter measures value added accruing to residents (which is lower than GDP because of outward income flows to non-residents, especially profits/dividends accruing to the foreign direct investment on which Ireland prided itself).

Posted by icarus @ 05:24 PM 4 Comments

Hey, we didn't check the numbers - OK?

Bloomberg: Bank of America Sees $2 Billion Charge on Home Loans

"Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, resolved disputes with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae by agreeing to pay more than $2.6 billion to settle claims that it sold loans based on faulty information".

Posted by alan @ 03:13 PM 2 Comments

Your opportunity to vote for Land Value Tax!

Daily Mail: I'll stop housing boom for good, promises minister

Currently, the third worst rated comment (click tab above comments) is: "Get rid of income tax and replace it with a land tax. Sorted. DD, Basingstoke, Hants" who is now on negative 35. Shall we see if we can bump him up to the best rated comment?

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:53 PM 9 Comments

A snappy summary of the situation

Scotsman: Homing in on property problems

In the New Year, we can look forward to the usual demands from various charities calling for somebody to do something about our housing problem. Housing has never been a priority for politicians. Few understand why. Under the last Labour government housing waiting lists rose from one million families in 1997 to nearly two million today. That is around five million people. Nationally, this figure can only increase with the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition's cut on the social housing budget of 50%. In a country where the right to free healthcare at the point of delivery is considered sacrosanct it is puzzling that having your own door keys is not. While there are a multitude of factors affecting housing, here are six key points. [More single people, immigration, debts, benefits, etc.]

Posted by drewster @ 01:44 PM 4 Comments

Usual homeownerist spin from the Express

Daily Express: Housing Minister Grant Shapps in House Price row

HOUSING minister Grant Shapps was last night accused of being “unrealistic” for claiming home ownership should no longer be a long-term financial investment. He called for a new era of “house-price stability” with property values falling in real terms. But Tory MP Philip Davies said: “Prices may not increase in the same way as they have in the past 20 years but it’s unrealistic to expect people not to see houses as an investment.” Economist Howard Archer said: “I cannot see the situation changing in the UK where there is a home-owning psychology.”

Posted by drewster @ 01:38 PM 11 Comments

Stock markets - anticipating improved growth?

Investment Postcards: Stock markets - anticipating improved growth?

Stock markets have been heading north over the past few weeks while market commentators question the health of the world economy and especially the situation in the U.S. and China. But who is right and who is wrong? This article looks at at the ability of stock markets to anticipate the fortunes of the underlying economies.

Posted by prieur du plessis @ 10:14 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Why house prices will fall in 2011

Lovemoney.com: Why house prices will fall in 2011

"Many vendors are only too aware that the prices they are trying to get for their properties are too high. That’s exactly why asking prices have fallen so consistently since the summer. For many who would like to buy, they will have to fall a fair bit before they are willing to part with their cash." Yep. Spot on Mr Fitzsimons,

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:44 PM 14 Comments

Confusion

Reuters: Minister seeks lighter touch on mortgage rules

This article was highlighted in comments to the previous post by 'House' but the blog monster was reluctant to publish it for some reason so I've posted it instead. It seems that the government has a problem: the FSA wants to regulate lending more to stop property price bubbles but the CML don't want to refuse credit for first time buyers either! Housing Minister Grant Shapps is stuck in the middle of this mess trying to solve the contradiction. Good luck with that Minister!

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:52 AM 9 Comments

A nice article for bears

Lovemoney.com: Why house prices will fall in 2011

The new year is usually a time of optimism. You can look forward to a clean slate, to 12 months of learning from your mistakes. You will go to the gym every week, you will pay money into your pension, you will ditch that expensive petrol-guzzling people carrier for a more efficient model. But there's not much optimism to be found in the property market...

Posted by caparn @ 10:39 AM 0 Comments

Are the electorate being softened up for the inevitable?

BBC: Minister Grant Shapps wants 'stable' house prices

"The main thing everyone requires for their subsistence is a roof over their head and when that basic human need becomes too expensive for average citizens to afford, something is out of kilter. "I think the answer is house-price stability." He spoke of a "rational" market in which house prices fell in real terms, by increasing by less than earnings.

Posted by wdbeast @ 09:42 AM 13 Comments

They think it's all over....

Telegraph: European debt markets 'face second credit crisis'

European debt markets could be hit by a second credit crisis within months as fears grow over the huge volume of new bonds that must be sold by governments and banks in 2011. Banks alone must refinance about €400bn (£343bn) of debt in the first half of the year, but add in the more than €500bn European governments must replace over the same period, as well as further hundreds of billions of euros of mortgage-backed debt maturing and there is the potential for chaos in the credit markets.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:37 AM 5 Comments

FT disaster scenario rated 20% for 2011

ArabianMoney: FT’s Lex sees 20% chance of disaster in 2011

The Financial Times’ last Lex column of the year put a 20 per cent chance rating on another financial disaster in 2011, though it thought muddling through a more realistic prospect at 70 per cent. It is a sign of how sober commentators are about 2011 to see this in the FT. Its disaster scenario saw global bond markets unwilling to finance the US deficit and an existential crisis in the euro zone. Asset prices would plunge to levels not seen since the 2008-9 crisis.

Posted by david smith @ 09:25 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, January 1, 2011

'Horrendous' housing trends slam door on first-time buyers

Guardian: 'Horrendous' housing trends slam door on first-time buyers

Young adults caught between soaring house prices and tough mortgage rules face prospect of never owning a home Grant Shapps has a single word to describe the reality of the housing market in 2010 for millions of young people: "horrendous".

Posted by wilee @ 11:58 PM 9 Comments

Someone in government recognises that it might be time to put the brakes on the housing market.

Guardian: Minister pledges an end to the housing price rollercoaster

Housing minister Grant Shapps argues for using government levers to help usher in era of 'house-price stability'. Only after a sizeable drop in my opinion but looking in the right direction at least.

Posted by horsburghn @ 10:30 PM 0 Comments

Nationwide's figures show house prices rose in December but take away 'seasonal adjustment' and it's

Guardian.co.uk: House prices: lies, damned lies and statistics

Some more bear food: 'The Nationwide's economists have "seasonally adjusted" the data to take account of the fact that far fewer properties sell in December than other months of the year. They have based this adjustment on the vast amount of data collected over the years and have used complicated calculations, which I couldn't even begin to explain in simple terms, to produce a figure that is actually 0.8% higher than the actual monthly change.'

Posted by ra02127a @ 09:25 PM 0 Comments

New Years Day Bear Food

The Independent: Property prices set for further falls in 2011

Report shows end-of-year rebound for house values, but still £21,000 below peak. House prices ended 2010 broadly flat – with widening regional disparities and the prospect of weak or stagnant property values in 2011, as public spending cuts and job losses depress the market, especially outside the South and the East.

Posted by jack c @ 12:10 PM 4 Comments

Prices climbed on average just £660 over the last 12 months

Telegraph: House prices enjoy unexpected December lift to end 2010 'flat', says Nationwide

The average property price rose 0.4pc month-on-month to £162,763, mortgage lender Nationwide reported, reversing the 0.3pc drop seen in November.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:02 AM 2 Comments

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