Monday, January 17, 2011

Rightmove: +0.3% MoM, +0.4%YoY

UK house prices turn positive in January

Happy new year!

Posted by little professor @ 01:12 AM (5119 views)
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29 thoughts on “Rightmove: +0.3% MoM, +0.4%YoY

  • gone-to-colombia says:

    Yeah Right – B0locks – lets move on………………
    What do you all think of Henry Dager by Nathalie Merchant?

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  • Nopey – miss read the data dude, it’s 0 yes zero point 4, which means it’s not a good figure either way.

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  • Doesn’t surprise me at all – spring bounce mentality from people who have been holding out for higher prices that they just aren’t going to get. There will be a similar increase next month too until reality kicks in.

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  • Asking prices. Who will offer me £250,000 for this Mars Bar? Headline Mars Bars asking price breaks new record. Confectioners bullish.

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  • In some respects, I’m not totally shocked. The market I am monitoring (and hoping to buy in), is the north-west. Whilst there are vast amounts of properties that have been on the market for some time (alot been 1-2 years) and are finally being significantly reduced, this seem to have escaped the notice of people who are newly listing their properties. Since xmas I have seen a whole host of properties hit the market at circa 2007 prices. We all know (and suspect the EAs must know), that they haven’t a hope of selling anywhere near the prices that are being listed…from my experience of this market, these properties are valued around 25% above what they will realistically be able to sell for.

    It seems many sellers are still in a 2007 dreamland and as a hopeful buyer, it’s going to be a long slog before realism becomes common place.

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  • financial planner says:

    0.3%! Pls alter title

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  • greenshootsandleaves says:

    So what is it, 3% or 0.3% (or 30%)?

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Simple rule:

    An index that shows rising prices = rubbish
    An index that shows falling prices = reliable.

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  • Worth a read, this is a relatively bearish article.

    It also points to the fact that ‘good’ areas are holding up better due to the better credit rating & status of those living there.

    So maybe this could be a crash of two halves where we do see prices in poorer areas fall by twice as much as they do in ‘better’ areas.

    Just one paragraph from the article :-

    However January’s 0.3 percent rise was tiny in comparison with the declines seen in the final two months of last year. Asking prices fell 3.0 percent in the month of December and 3.2 percent in November.

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  • Extend and pretend economics …

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  • So to confirm
    Asking prices are only up 0.3% and that is not seasonally adjusted, but they’ve fallen over 6% in previous 2 months (again to be fair non seasonally adjusted).

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  • This doesn’t surprise me. EAs have been telling vendors to take their property off the market until Jan & keeping new listings
    back until Jan11. This will have created a false average since November. The one to look at will be Feb11 & Mar11.

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  • Bleurgh!! That’s all I have to say on the subject.

    @ Gone to Colombia, there are a whole lot more than 10,000 Maniacs being sucked in by this sh*te ;o)

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  • fallingbuzzard says:

    As always, the devil is in the detail.

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  • Doesn’t surprise me my landlady has just put my place on at a price that’s higher than 2007 peak (Berkshire).

    The interesting story is that the established estate agent she has a relationship with (my letting agent) told her a price £100k less … she went with a small cowboy outfit instead who made her wild promises. Two couples to view so far who both thought the price was a joke, one really pissed off with the estate agent for wasting their time.

    And she is ‘praying for a quick sale’. The greed x stupidity quotient of some sellers knows no bounds. Spring bounce, my ar*se.

    What’s also interesting is the place two doors up became available for rent. Three extra rooms (5 bed + granny flat against standard 4-bed), just £100 extra in rent (we save that by not having to pay much for movers). It would appear that rents are not rocketing, indeed three years ago when this was first let the rent was £400 higher than we will be paying, but there have been two expensive voids since then.

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  • ontheotherhand says:

    Reading the Rightmove report http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/01/january-2011.pdf Nice graph in there showing new listings half what they were in boom times.

    I really like to read the definition of a pyramid selling scheme falling apart,

    “There is clear evidence of the knock-on effects of two-tier mortgage lending. Prospective buyers of flats, terraced and semidetached are, by definition, less likely to benefit from the higher deposits built up by detached property purchasers and therefore will be thinner on the ground. Consequently, Rightmove has recorded year on-year asking price falls for flats, terraces and semi-detached properties of around 1%, while detached properties have increased by 1.6%.

    “Shipside comments: “These figures show that owners of semis aspiring to trade up are the most likely to feel trapped and frustrated of those stuck on the property ladder. They would previously have sold to owner-occupiers of terraces, who in turn would have sold to first-time buyers or buy-to-let investors. With fewer buyers at the bottom of the chain, and short chains due to more vacant property, some are obviously unwilling or unable to come to market.”

    Oh, and to finish, comedy snow complaint of the year. Presumably potential listers found it hard to get to the internet seeing as they were trapped indoors,

    “The heavy snow will have played some role in the low listing numbers”

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  • If the heavy snow played a role in low listings, then going by the supply and demand theory the snow helped prices stay up – have I got that right ?

    montesquieu
    Good to hear your tale and that Berkshire (being pretty prosperous) is not getting increased rents as we keep hearing about in London.

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  • str2007

    On the contrary, I found quite a lot more choice and a lot more value this time than two and a half years ago.

    We considered buying but prices are still silly round here. We are actually at the point where we might not bother buying at all, the place we are moving into is huge and cheap in comparison to what I’d be willing to take on in debt to live round here. We might just save up and eventually buy a retirement place back in Somerset (we only moved through here for the wife’s work).

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Monty 13, I’m glad to hear that you can upgrade to somewhere bigger for so cheaply (if your current owner is thinking of selling, you could ask her for a few hundred quid in exchange for vacating before your 6 months tenancy is up), but be wary of the removals guys.

    We moved all our earthly possessions five miles up the road in late 2007 for £500 (three blokes, one day’s work) which seemed fair enough, six months later, we then moved three hundred yards round the corner (to save a few hundred quid a month), they charged exactly as much again – it’s the loading and unloading that takes the time and causes the expense, not whether he drives for half an hour or for five minutes. So whether they clock off at 5pm or at 4.30 pm doesn’t make any difference to them.

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  • This just reflects the fact that most venders have added a few thousands £££ over Xams spending binge. I increasely find that the asking price is actually an indicator of how much the vendor is in debt rather than how much the house is worth. The difference between the price their paid and the asking price is actually the MEW, loan and credit card debt they own. It must went like this – the EA says, “Sir, your house IMO is worth £150k”, The vendor “Yea, I know that. But I got £20k on my credit card. Someone should pay that.” The EA, “I will price your house at £170K”.

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  • “Yeah Right – B0locks – lets move on………………”

    You can’t have it both ways. If the RM report showed falls everyone would be happy to accept the figures!

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Phils: ” If the RM report showed falls everyone would be happy to accept the figures!”

    Correct, see Rule 1 (my comment currently number 6). If it had showed falling prices, it would in fact be reliable.

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  • Come on guys it’s only a 0.3% rise, and the author points out it’s only that much because of low volume and it isn’t seasonally adjusted.

    To all intense and purpose it is a fall.

    Also take a rolling 3 months if you prefer and that will show a 6% fall in asking prices.

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  • Hi guys, I’m afraid to let you all know that I’ve thrown in the towel and I’m off to the dark side. We have had an offer accepted on a house. I’ve waited nearly seven years in rented accommodation and I’ve been contributing to this site for a number of years now too. However I’ve seen a place I like and I just don’t believe that the crash we all want is going to happen. This is for a number of reasons, for example: I think that the window of opportunity has now passed for the Condems to let everything crash. The population in general has now come to accept that paying in excess of £160,000 for an average house is now the norm. People are generally very property savvy now and as soon as prices begin to dive there will be plenty BTL speculators out there to snap up the perceived bargains. Also when I bought my first house back in 1994 I had nearly paid off my mortgage by the year 2000. Any government needs a stick with which to beat it’s population and by making houses expensive ensures that people will have to go out to work and ultimately pay their taxes for longer. From a governmental perspective if property became too cheap we would all clear our mortgages and then there would be less urgency for us to stay in a better paying job for longer. In other words being forced to work i.e. to pay the mortgage means being forced to pay taxes too and I think this would please any government. The final reason for giving in and buying is when I had a conversation with a friend of mine who is in her 90’s. She said that she could remember a time when house building had begun to grind to a halt and it was then that no-one could afford to buy. This one really sent the alarm bells ringing as we are in a similar situation today.

    Even though I’m going to buy I’m still going to post because I have so much sympathy with everyone here. But I can’t go on renting forever. My parasite landlord put the rent up just before Christmas and that was the final straw – either I fund his greedy lifestyle or that of a fat banker and the banker won.

    Hope you all wish me well? and I’ll be back soon to let you know how it goes.

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  • mystie010 @ 22: “Hope you all wish me well?”

    Definitely, and do let us know how it goes.

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  • sureseam – thank you – it’s really appreciated!

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  • @mystie010 – very best of luck, hope all goes well.

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  • @mystie, when the last bear becomes a bull that truly is the end of the bull market.

    maybe you’re not the last but you’re not far off

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Mystie, best of luck. Another one bites the dust.

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