Wednesday, December 1, 2010

November Index

-0.3% MoM +0.4YoY

"Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “The recent trend of modestly falling house prices continued during November, with the price of a typical UK property declining by 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis between October and November. The three month on three month rate of change – a smoother measure of the recent price trend – rose from -1.5% to -1.3%. This remains well above the deeply negative rates of -5% to -6% that prevailed during the most severe phase of the downturn in 2008. The annual rate of change – which compares house prices to their level 12 months ago – fell from 1.4% to 0.4% and suggests that house prices are essentially unchanged from a year earlier."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 07:22 AM (2367 views)
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20 thoughts on “November Index

  • http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4103/5222624611_11b8c28d47.jpg“>

    (LR shifted back 3 months)

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  • I’ll try that again:

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Good stuff, NW ‘seasonally adjusted average’ is going to have to fall by 0.8% in the month of December to be flat YoY.

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  • I’m disappointed with the -0.3%, especially at this time of year. I was hoping that it would be rather more.

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  • [email protected]

    he actual price change was -0.6%, but this has been “seasonally adjusted”

    Hope that cheers you up!

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  • I’m surprised they haven’t mentioned the snow…

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Well, that’s all rather underwhelming. In fairness, Forex predicted -0.4%. I’m always restless on the night before an index release, I was hoping for a bigger fall so it’s all a bit ‘meh’.

    I see Martin’s still trotting out his mantra: “… rose from -1.5% to -1.3%. This remains well above the deeply negative rates of -5% to -6% that prevailed during the most severe phase of the downturn in 2008.”

    I’m pretty sure this is the third month in a row he’s used that plaintive line (in fact, i’m sure that Halifax also used it recently?). As everyone knows Martin; if you say something enough times, it’ll make it so…

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  • its all fine and dandy… one swallow does not a summer make.

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  • Sib’s – “I’m always restless on the night before an index release” best one liner I have seen on here in ages (the Beta blockers are in the post)

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  • Looking at the Index Values on Nationwide download, and extrapolating forward using -0.5% per month (which is approximately the average fall over the last 5 months)………… we’ll still be +ve YoY at Dec, but then in Jan 11 the index goes YoY -ve (-1.05%)……. Feb could be an interesting month, as we could see a temporary return to +ve YoY (because Feb 10 was a mini-trough in the data) but then March and April would see us return to the large -ve YoYs seen in 2008 which Martin G refers to above. Expect -5% YoY by April if we average -0.5% per month until then……………. I wonder what Martin’s line will be then “erm………….. OK, I’ve run out of spin, back to Fionnula who is conveniently back from Maternity leave”……………?

    Let’s hope we get the -0.5%s (or more).

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  • The first five months of falls in the Nationwide in 2007/08 were: -0.8%, -0.5%, -0.1%, -0.5%, -0.6,%, whereas this time it’s: -0.5%, -0.9%, +0.1%, -0.7%, -0.3%.

    Five months from the 2007/08 peak, nominal prices down were down 3.73%; this time it’s 3.95%.

    IF it follows a similar pattern to last time then the big falls will start in January.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Not to be outdone by Ana Lytics, let me also point out that if you look at their inflation adjusted series (from here, we are now slightly below Q1 2004.

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    @ 9

    Thanks Jack, depending on which way you look it at; it’s either pathetic or just shows how desperate I am for a HPC. Ho hum.

    Cheers for the Beta blockers; they’ll be more beneficial than a couple of glasses of wine…

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  • That’s so worrying.

    I almost fell over the edge of my infinity pool.

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  • sure someone didnt try and push you over the edge?

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  • hey smuggy… this reminds me of the BTLrs – although of course i could be wrong….

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  • [email protected]

    Indeed………. and looks very much like we will go below trend at the end of Q4 2010, that’ll be the first quarter since Q2 2002!!!

    So, you could argue that house prices are very soon to be “fair value” according to the Nationwide measure. It certainly doesn’t feel that way, but that’s probably because the nominal falls only account for part of the story. RPI running wild, and no Wage inflation probably accounts for the fact that most people still cannot afford to buy (this is backed up by the average house price to average earning calc – approx 4.5x at the moment)……….. so still another 10% fall to go before houses become “affordable” by most statistical measures (but even a 10% fall still doesn’t feel like “enough” to me)………. bring on -20% when VAT and IRs go up……

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Ana, good spot. I note that NW have also adapted my idea of plotting the post 2007 HPC and the post 1989 HPC on the same chart (they do two such charts in this months press release). If you refer to those, you’ll see that house prices have at least 20% to fall on a wage-adjusted basis (plus an unspecified amount for overshoot). Or possibly wages will go up 2% nominal every year for ten years and nominal house prices will stay flat, but that seems unlikely to me.

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  • @18 MW

    Yep, -20% “feels” about right to me. Won’t happen without IRs heading up though, so still probably another year+ until we hit bottom…….

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  • -40% feels better to me

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