Wednesday, December 15, 2010

More vaguely interesting statistics/forecasts

Gross lending to remain flat in 2011, says CML

"Gross mortgage lending is forecast to remain flat at £135bn next year, Council of Mortgage Lenders data shows. In its News and Views the CML says net lending is expected to drop from £9bn in 2010 to £6bn in 2011. The number of arrears is predicted to rise from 175,000 this year to 180,000 next year while repossessions will increase from 36,000 to 40,000." The article also says that there are only 18 million privately owned homes in the UK, which is very much on the low side. The VOA publishes a list of 23.2 million houses by council tax bands in Eng & Wales alone, so add on 15% for Scot & NI = 27 million and knock off 4 million council homes = 23 million.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:43 AM (1247 views)
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9 thoughts on “More vaguely interesting statistics/forecasts

  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    “Activity in housing and mortgage markets is set to remain broadly flat in 2011 and we do not envisage a return to the lending levels that characterised the middle of the last decade for many years to come.”

    Well, that’s some good news at least.

    “…while repossessions will increase from 36,000 to 40,000”

    MW, looks like I was quoting 2010 figures in the other thread.

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  • I’ve seen a lot of predictions for things either going up, or remaining flat. Rarely do these experts predict a fall. With mortgage lending tight, unemployment rising, government job cuts, the cost of necessities rising against stagnant wages, high deposit requirements, and continued uncertainty, I think there’s a good chance gross mortgage lending could not just stabilise but actually fall further.

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  • I didn’t hear the full story but I’m sure they said on 5live this morning that lending next year was expected to be the lowest for 30 years. When you think how much houses cost now compared to 30 years ago, that’s really not very many transactions at all.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    TT, yes, they predict that NET lending will be the lowest for thirty or forty years, that is an irrelevance.

    Gross lending (total new loans made) will still be £120 billion (or whatever, i.e. less than half what it was in the boom years 05 – 07) but repayments and redemptions and so on will be £114 billion, ergo net lending = £6 billion = a pittance.

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Actually MW, on my way out the door this morning some chap from CML was on the news; did I hear right that net lending (during boom years) hit a high of £90 billion – or do I need my ears cleaned-out?

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  • SBC – just posted a Telegraph article which says net lending peaked at 110bn

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    SBC, TT beat me to it. */walks off in a sulk*

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Cheers Timmy T (and an honourable mention to MW of course “wait, come back!”) that really puts it into perspective in which case.

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  • * lifts head from under blanket*

    In which case what, SBC?

    */goes back to sulking*

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