Friday, October 8, 2010

We’ll be okay for a while then crash

Time to nip the next bubble in the bud

A really interesting take on things from Allister. Another property bubble in the wings and a doomsday scenario in the longer term. Well worth a read.

Posted by chrisch @ 09:08 AM (1009 views)
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3 thoughts on “We’ll be okay for a while then crash

  • mark wadsworth says:

    Problem is, he is an unwitting lackey to Home-Owner-Ism.

    He says that VAT is the least bad tax because producers don’t pay it (a big fat lie) and that Vince’s Mansion Tax is ‘an attack on aspiration and wealth creation’ (another Big Fat Lie). Although he has it spot on when he says that banks should not be bailed out and interest rates are probably “too low”.

    He just miserably fails to join any sort of dots and arrive at a coherent solution.

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  • I challenged City AM the other week for running a headline saying falling house prices in London were bad news. Their response was simply to say that the majority of Londoners were homeowners and therefore a fall in their net worth was bad news for them. So presumably non-homeowners can just go hang!

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  • The Yuan needs to rise against the US Dollar – that makes sense for both the US and China.

    The main stumbling block seems to be the fact that with a gross lack of diplomacy, senior members of the US administration started trying to order China to do this a few years back, (with great publicity) and are still doing so..

    This puts the Chinese administration in the difficult position of being seen to lose face if they comply, and for the Chinese, losing face is a very big issue. (when my Chinese contacts make mistakes, I never blame them directly, but suggest that someone they are dealing with has made the mistake – to which they will always agree, and remedy the problem. Otherwise, they will argue that black is white rather than admit error)

    The solution is for the US to back off on this issue (publicly) and make a big concession on some other area of conflict with China (Taiwan perhaps..) Let the Chinese leadership claim a public victory over the US, but with a discreet deal regarding the currency issue tied in.

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