Tuesday, October 5, 2010

“Confidence amongst homeowners about the outlook for the property market has fallen sharply”

Confidence in housing market falls

Zoopla's annual housing market sentiment survey shows that only 63 per cent of homeowners now expect property prices to rise over the next six months, compared to 78 per cent of homeowners three months ago. According to the survey of 6,149 homeowners, the average growth predicted for house prices in the next six months has also dropped to only three per cent from 5.5 per cent three months ago. The number of respondents who expect property prices to fall over the coming six months is also up sharply to one in four from one in 10 three months ago. The Zoopla.co.uk survey results also reaffirmed that homeowners in the UK view their home as their castle.

Posted by jack c @ 10:45 AM (1793 views)
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15 thoughts on ““Confidence amongst homeowners about the outlook for the property market has fallen sharply”

  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    “The property website’s annual housing market sentiment survey shows that only 63 per cent of homeowners now expect property prices to rise over the next six months, compared to 78 per cent of homeowners three months ago”.

    While it’s a welcome trend (despite being only a small sample size), those figures are laughable. Even after the glut of recent bear-food in the media, 6 out of 10 people (homeowners) think that prices will rise over the next six months.

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  • “According to the survey of 6,149 homeowners, the
    average growth predicted for house prices in the next
    six months has also dropped to only three per cent from
    5.5 per cent three months ago.”

    So the average homeowner still thinks we will have 6% HPI over the next year.

    I believe these figures, it is a indication of how far we still have to go on the bubble curve.

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  • jack c: there are a lot of bearish articles at the moment but there are actually even more bullish ones out there, in the mainstream. The only articles that get published on HPC are the bearish ones and consequently there is a tendency for this site to present a version of reality that is tragically out of sync with the outside world. Even some of the bearish articles published here, contain more bullish content than bearish but somehow evolution has created a breed of bear that is able to blank out words that don’t suit them. There is no real harm in it but I suspect that is why so many (by no means all) people on this site are in a permanent state of surprise about house prices/the economy or why they are amazed by the attitude of the general public. Every few months there is a wave of euphoria on HPC because the 100% concentration of bearish articles published on the site indicate that depression will be upon us by next Tuesday afternoon. Sometimes a contributor will confidently stick his neck out and say, “the markets will crumble after the weekend” or “the growth figures published on Wednesday will be definitely negative”. It doesn’t seem to bother them that they turn out to be repeatedly incorrect. Sometimes the fanatical bearish stance reminds me of a parallel universe Dell Boy. “This time next quarter, we’ll all be in the poorhouse”. One day (soon even!!!???) it might happen but it’ll only be after several years of surprised outrage: Until then, I’ll brace myself for the surprised cries of anguish: “the positive figures are all made up”, “it’s all down to stimulus”, “it’s just restocking”, “it’s because the elite control the stat office”, “GDP is just a measure of turnip growth”, it’s just …….

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  • Flash – you make your point well and maybe there could be more balance to the posts on this section of the site. How about you regularly post up some of the more bullish articles as a counterbalance to the bearish articles? Here’s one from Friday of last week which I stumbled upon titled “What slump? House prices soar by 16%” See http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Cambridge/What-slump-House-prices-soar-by-16.htm

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  • @3 Flashman – People should also remember that most newspaper articles are a load of rubbish. If you ever see a news article about a subject you know something about, it is invariably wrong!

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Guilty as charged Flashman. I don’t mind admitting that I could well be more objective. On the other hand (and i’m sure this will only confirm your argument) I really don’t see much ‘cheer’ in the news at the moment. I think Jack’s idea is a bloody good one; after all, if HPC is to avoided being labelled a one trick pony perhaps we should be posting both sides.

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  • jack c: It might serve a useful purpose because most of our bullish contributors are a bit thick but ultimately I’m not particularly bullish or bearish and it would be exhausting supporting a stance that is not really my own. I suspect that smugdog (I don’t think he’s thick at all and he’s quite funny) is not really bullish but he does a good job of holding up a mirror to some of the more bizarre attitudes on HPC. Unless we get another decent one, he’ll have to be our only decent bull

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  • Flash – I think it makes for a more healthy debate when someone with a bullish view enters the various threads but as you point out we dont get to many of them. I tend to think of smugdog as a bit of a mischief maker rather than a bull.

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  • We dont get many bulls because their arguements crumble under us bears’ rapier intellect, which is too hard on their egos.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Flash, don’t be a spoilsport!

    Of course we/I prefer reading bearish articles, so we/I tend to post those rather than the endless bullish ones. We do it to keep each other company more than anything. Feel free to post bullish ones, but you’ll soon find they follow a very set and threadbare narrative and are highly selective in which stat’s they publish or emphasise.

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  • I seem to recall quite a few bullish articles appearing on this site – posted in the spirit of “I don’t think so, mate!”
    eg. About one Daily Express headline per week !!

    Also, house prices have fallen a lot if one does not peg one’s currency to GBP – which is why currency and the shiny G word get mentioned a lot here.

    And I made a prediction about something and 48 hours later, it was true!!

    SmugMike

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  • Jack C, I swing both ways don’t you know.

    “I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to reach my destination.”

    Catch me if you can.

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  • Quick get him!

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  • Bottom of the housing market 2018.

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  • 12. smugdog said…
    Catch me if you can.

    Isn’t that called pushing on a string?

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