Thursday, October 7, 2010

-3.6% MoM +2.6% MoM

Halifax September Index

errrr. House Price Crash!

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 08:12 AM (3321 views)
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48 thoughts on “-3.6% MoM +2.6% MoM

  • phdinbubbles says:

    Obviously that should say +2.6% Year-on-Year. I was a little bit dizzy at the time of typing. The -3.6% is right though!!

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  • That’s huge

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  • some say one swallow doesnt make a summer…. low volume blah blah blah I say:

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  • If i am not mistaken the mpc meet today

    “The low interest rate environment has reduced the burden of servicing mortgage debt. Typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from a peak of 48% of average disposable earnings in mid 2007 to 30% in mid 2010. This key measure of affordability is at a better level than the long-term average over the past 25 years (37%) and is an important factor supporting housing demand.”

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  • Some say the gov wont LET it crash, Qe to the power of n, ZIRP until the year 2525, The banks will fail, where’s the nationwide numbers?, etc etc i STILL say…..

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  • The villagers look around and see monkeys everywhere.

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  • phd …. i can feel a chart coming on…..

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  • If I summon every ounce of my understanding to estimate our government’s capability of controlling house prices (at THIS time), it comes to zero. They’ve fired their bullets and the gun is no longer loaded. It’ll be years before a government has sufficient ammunition to put upward pressure on house prices. The consequences of them tying, would be dire. I know I should resist but I feel like giggling.

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  • House price now (£162,096) lower than a year ago (£163,294)!!!

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  • Some say the gov wont LET it crash, Qe to the power of n, ZIRP until the year 2525, The banks will fail, where’s the nationwide numbers?, etc etc i STILL say…..

    This will be seen as the perfect reason for more QE.

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  • @3 Techie *LOL*

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  • hpw yes quite possibly right but the point is……IT DON’T MATTER! Really the emperor IS STARK B0LL0CK NAKED..

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  • Wow!! It’s only one month of data so I suppose it could be a freak result but even so … 😀 According to some on the forum, this is the worst monthly drop ever in the history of the Halifax House Price Index. I’ve no idea if this is true and must go to work so no time for following up. Can anybody confirm if this is the worst single result in the history of the Halifax index?

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  • If I summon every ounce of my understanding to estimate our government’s capability of controlling house prices (at THIS time), it comes to zero.

    Lets see what they come up with next; it will be something I’ll bet.

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  • The fear stage has arrived everyone. Hold on to your hats folks!

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  • Index value September 09 was 528.5

    Index value September 10 is 524.6

    So how do they get a positive annual change figure out of that?

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  • Taking on HPWs they will do “something”……… actually Flash – while you were sunning yourself on distant moutain passes, some of us scratched our heads over the ability from 1.1.2011 to expand the purchases to “junk” from (effectively) Gilts….. Did you see this ? Whats your view?

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  • Dill. Read the release and you’ll find out! It’s the average over the last 3 months compared to the same average for last year.

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  • Fear or capitulation to come

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  • Smugdog – Could you please comment on the -3.6% drop?

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  • Smugdog, that’s an annualised drop of 43.2%. Time to remove those “no house price crash” rants from youtube then ?

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  • @ 12 Quiet Guy

    The Halifax House Price Index started in 1983 and according to their monthly figures this is the biggest ever monthly fall in prices.

    Previous biggest fall was Sept 92 with a 3% fall.

    -3.6% is HUGE

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  • Santa’s bringing a HPC. I hope you’ve all been good boys and girls.

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  • hi techie: Why did you have to spoil the party? OK, I’ll put away my streamer and give it a crack. Retail investors in the US and Hedgies everywhere have been buying up junk bonds for some time now. Any suggestion of more QE tends to provoke this response, so it somewhat reduces the need for governments to buy them. The issuance of junk has been quite large this year, in response to the demand but if demand tailed off, then the issuance would follow suit. Obviously the govt. doesn’t issue junk (arguably!). Gilts, on the other hand, can be created and bought in house which gives them more control over the supply side. In direct answer to your question, technically the government could buy an almost infinite amount of junk but they would be loathe to do too much of it because the delicate eco system of the bond market would be disturbed (squeaky bum time). It would have been a bit easier last time

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  • phdinbubbles says:

    oh, ok then techie…

    (Land Registry data shifted back three months to account for lag)

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    If I may permit myself a little blue: feckin’ hell!

    That is spectacular; I haven’t been so happy since the birth of my child…

    Then again, as others have said, it is ‘just’ the Halifax index so i’ll take it with a pinch of salt. Still, what’s not to like?

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:
    “Looking at quarterly figures – a better measure of the underlying trend, house prices in the third quarter of 2010 were 0.9% lower than in the second quarter of 2010. This rate of decline is significantly slower than the quarterly changes of between -5% and -6% that were seen in the second half of 2008”.

    Meh, there’s always one party-pooper that confiscates the booze, turns the stereo off and boots all the revellers out.

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  • -3.6% ? Does that apply to bungalows in Bognor or maisonettes in Mousehole.

    It’s an indicator, that’s all it is. It may well help in bending the vendor’s elbow for more off the asking price, granted.

    But in many areas that I focus on, I still see notes pushed through letterboxes on the off chance of someone considering

    they may want to sell, at a premium of course.

    You may well live and breed in less desirable areas. Then at 3.6% discount, a hovel is still a hovel.

    Meanwhile, at this morning’s HPC party, do behave; it’s almost akin to incest.

    (believe me, they’re not MY rants Ha!)

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  • phdinbubbles says:

    @19 The Nationwide is the red line and the Land Reg is the green line – sorry.

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  • Are we at last in the “fear” stage of the bubble? I won’t post the graph, but someone else may well… 😉

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  • phdinbubbles says:

    @smugdog
    “You may well live and breed in less desirable areas.”

    What would a 3.6% drop in the less desirable areas do to the equity of those wishing to trade up and buy in the more desirable areas?

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  • “You may well live and breed in less desirable areas. Then at 3.6% discount, a hovel is still a hovel.”

    This is a bit unfair smugdog because in the past you have only referred to property as ‘property’. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats equally and so a falling tide…Just like the clever clogs who thunk the sub-prime problems would not spill over into the wider economy…keep the faith, I’m confident the bubble graph doesn’t apply to bungalows.

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  • @22 smugdog said :

    “You may well live and breed in less desirable areas. Then at 3.6% discount, a hovel is still a hovel.

    Meanwhile, at this morning’s HPC party, do behave; it’s almost akin to incest.”

    You disagreeable old troll. Quite funny though 😉

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  • Hhhmmm 3.6% X 12 months = minus 43.2% p.a.

    Just playing with figures in the way the banks usually do. It’s our turn to dream.

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  • 3.6% drops per month for 12 months would actually be 35.6% for the year – still brilliantly significant.

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  • will – yes but thats simple not compounded…..

    Smugdog – admiration to you for responding, Mind you the less said about the response the better…. except to say does every bull think that way? If they do, and assuming you are right then shouldn’t they consider this a lead indicator for their areas? No? Of course houses and areas arent homogeneous… but all the same its a bit like shares, sure you can pick a winner in a sea of red, but its alot less likely than when everything is blue.

    Flash @ 18 – i think that the ABILITY to do this was given before the Tories took control, and, at the end of the day the BoE say this is a political decision. So in the current environment, i go along with you. In theory they could buy up every non performing loan in the world…. BUT “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is.” Yogi Berra

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  • Dream??? I can’t see things picking up over the winter months….

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  • Will, that got me thinking about what the average price could be expected to end up at. I’m thinking average household income @ ~£40k and lending 3x income gives ~£120k for an average house. So we could expect another ~£40k drop which would be a further ~25% drop.

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  • Where do they get 2.6% up YoY? To me it looks like 1% down YoY when you look at the numbers (unles they are comparing last quarter with the same quarter previous year!)

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  • Alan

    My first joint mortgage was on a 2.5 X basis in the 80’s. So £40k x 2.5 = £100k.

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  • Looking at PHDs graph, to reconnect with the Halifax the Nationwide drop this month will have to be even greater than 3.6.

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  • I agree it depends on the multiple : my first mortgage was x2 income in ’95, just been to the Nationwide and on their “How much can I borrow” calculator they are lending at up to x4.1 salary. 4.1 x £40k = £164k and we’re back to our current average house price.

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  • Jack C is the mortgage expert on here, he might have a better idea of where average prices might end up.

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  • Smugdog

    Without bragging I’ve had the pleasure (apart from high house prices) in living in relatively HPC immune areas.

    I’ve also posted on here previously contradictory ‘on the street’ information about prices reagining their peak and above asking prices.

    But you may also note in the last couple of mnths my street level view has started to change.

    In August the main estate agent claimed a record month of 23 sales, I wasa seeing things starting to stick, but didn’t hold my breath as the September ‘buying ‘ month was ahead.

    I haven’t seen much sell on rightmove which I check on a daily basis.

    What I have seen is that same agent go through it’s whole stock and drop most prices by £10-20k (30k in one case). From what I’ve seen this hasn’t resulted in a flood of sales, in fact most still sit there.

    The ones that haven’t reduced now look decidedly expensive.

    3.6% in 1 month record ever drop WILL make people sit up and pay attention (and I admit it’s an Indecise which may not correlate as strongly with the South East as say Nationwide), but anyone about to dip a toe will undoubtedly think twice now for a while.

    As Flashman has pointed out, it’s a minority of houses that are mortgaged and fewer still that are near the limit. However to think Bungalows in Bognor or maisonettes in Moushole are immune, come on.

    Where do you suppose people moving to a bungaalow in Bognor are getting their money from to move ?

    And your ‘niche’ market in Mousehole could soon feel the draft if we get into a steady decline. Which, if you’re honest is what the fundamentals will tell you.

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  • Smugdog, how about terraces in Taunton or semi’s in Swindon?

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Well done PhD

    I’d also like to point out that according to Halifax historial data, no inflation adjusted or seasonlly adjusted, all houses etc, teh average price in September 2010 is the same as in September 2004.

    So that’s six-year-on-six-year negative 🙂

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  • Excellent news. The largest monthly drop since the Halifax index started in 1983 and house prices are now lower than they were six years ago (524.6 today versus 525.4 in September 2004). Now the fear stage starts.

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