September 2010 Archive

Thursday, September 30, 2010

This bail-out will cost the taxpayers 22,500 euros EACH

BBC: Irish deficit balloons after new bank bail-out

The cost of bailing out the Republic of Ireland's stricken banks has risen to 45bn euro (£39bn), opening a huge hole in the Irish government's finances. The increased cost will see the government run a budget deficit equivalent to 32% of GDP this year. The cost includes a bill of up to 34bn euro to rescue the worst-hit lender, Anglo Irish Bank. The government said it would now have to rewrite its budget to cut borrowing more quickly in the coming years. But Irish finance minister Brian Lenihan defended the action, saying Anglo Irish Bank was too big to fail.

Posted by devo @ 07:45 PM 68 Comments

We are in the midst of an international currency war

The Telegraph: Are we heading for a replay of 1930s?

Is this not the 1930s in redux, and therefore a threat to global stability more profound and imminent than any of the more usually identified hazards of international terrorism, nuclear proliferation and the scramble for scarce resources?

Posted by devo @ 07:28 PM 4 Comments

How interest rates work...

G Pytel: The financial system, as we know it, is dead

A very lucid summary how setting up interest rates used to work, why banks followed them with mortgages, why it does not work anymore and why we are in the mess. A must read for any mortgage holder.

Posted by ant @ 07:16 PM 5 Comments

To illustrate my point

The Sun: Cheerfully ignoring possible house price falls

I did a quick search on "house prices" at The Sun website and drew, frankly a load of ramping, only one or two articles in the most recent ten even suggest that prices might possibly fall, just a little bit. Maybe Sumgdog and Greenbay are Sun readers?

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 03:30 PM 10 Comments

More bear food.

BBC: Mortgages: Squeeze on home loans to continue

"Banks are not expecting it to become any easier for householders to get a mortgage in the coming months, a Bank of England survey has found. The economic outlook is expected to constrain the availability of home loans in the next three months..."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:01 PM 19 Comments

Chairman of Redrow speaks out against planning [PDF]

PropertyWeek: UK Housing - Where did it all go wrong

"Why has supply dried up? Why are there now only 8 quoted house builders? Why is the house building industry one of the most inefficient industries in the UK?" In one word: Planning. It has now become the norm that more people are involved in the preparation of the countless reports required to accompany planning applications than are employed on site building the houses. Redrow last year spent more money on planning and planning related fees than it did on bricks.

Posted by drewster @ 01:10 PM 3 Comments

Global GDP

Index Mindi: Nominal Global GDP

The welcome return of Flash has brought me out of hibernation. That and his assertion that World Global GDP expanded throughout the recession, as part of a larger point that any especially bad outcomes that we might contemplate are off the agenda. Whilst this introduces some welcome optimism, it does so at the expense of the truth in that Global GDP growth has been shrinking since 2007 and went negative in 2009. I think even this paints a picture of matters that must be better than actual. For all the talk of growth outwith EU,US and Japan these economies still account for towards 60% of global GDP, and it is difficult to see how these can contract (the US by 6%) and in a global economy there can be growth elsewhere.

Posted by bellwether @ 01:01 PM 4 Comments

Slog forrecast of rising Irish bailout cost vindicated

Bloomberg: Irish bailout to cost 50 billion euro

Bloomberg quotes Dublin government figures this lunchtime as suggesting the cost of bailing out their banks may well be 50 billion euros, and all up might reach 68 billion....well over half the country's gdp. How is Ireland going to manage without ANY overdraft facilities until July 2011?

Posted by the slog @ 12:51 PM 0 Comments


Yahoo / telegraph: House price declines 'inevitable'

House price declines are inevitable, experts warn, as statistics show it is a buyers market. The latest house price index from Nationwide reported typical values rose 0.1 per cent in September to £166,757. But the increase was not enough to stem the drop in annual inflation, which slid from 3.9 per cent in August to 3.1 per cent in September.

Posted by mark @ 11:27 AM 12 Comments

House prices are down in September but re-mortgaging activity increasing

Investment and Business News: House prices see modest jump in September

House price may be down a bit and as yet there is nothing to worry about. However, as the government tighten things up more and more people will be out of a job. People are already downsizing their homes so things are going to start to get a little bit more interesting in the housing market.

Posted by jac nixon @ 10:06 AM 0 Comments

Healthy recovery, echo of weaker pound, or 1970s wage-price spiral?

Press Association: Pay rises averaging 2% - research

Fewer firms are freezing their workers' pay and more are paying rises of between 2% and 3%, according to research. A study of 300 companies by showed that settlements have averaged 2% this year, with half of employers not freezing pay. IDS said the number was similar to last year, suggesting that pay freezes were never as widespread as initially portrayed. Higher pay rises of at least 3% were recorded in both the private services and manufacturing sectors, reflecting the continuing recovery of both, but settlements were lower in the public sector.

Posted by drewster @ 09:56 AM 49 Comments

How the ban on 'liar-loans' will hit house prices

MoneyWeek: How the ban on 'liar-loans' will hit house prices

New rules on self-certified mortgages could wipe out a big chunk of demand in the housing market. That could send house prices crashing further

Posted by damien @ 09:25 AM 2 Comments

End of the holiday home investment era

Yahoo afp: Moody's cuts Spain's credit rating to Aa1

Moody's rating agency sliced Spain's credit rating on Thursday, a stinging blow to the government as it presents a belt-tightening budget the day after a general strike. The agency cut Spain's top-ranked "Aaa" rating by a single notch to "Aa1", meaning the country will now have to pay more to borrow money on the international markets.

Posted by mark @ 09:19 AM 2 Comments

Property Loans Caused the Chaos

Reuters: Allied Irish shares drop 22 pct on new bailout

Shares in Allied Irish Banks (ALBK.I) dropped 22 percent on Thursday after the finance minister said he was likely to take a majority stake in the lender to make up a capital shortfall

Posted by alan @ 08:50 AM 2 Comments

One hell of a bubble...

FT: Gilts see record international buying

''International investors are buying record amounts of government bonds amid rising expectations that the Bank of England will start printing money again to kickstart the faltering economic revival. Gilts are also benefiting from their status as safe investments in times of stress as fears grow that the eurozone debt crisis may deepen and the world could be plunged into a double-dip recession. The latest data on gilts was published 24 hours after a leading member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee urged a restart of quantitative easing, turning on the printing presses to buy gilts, because of concerns over economic growth.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:25 AM 21 Comments

The Real Trend

Nationwide: House prices fall in most regions during the third quarter

Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "The third quarter of 2010 saw house prices fall in nine out of 13 UK regions. For the UK as a whole, prices fell by 1.0% in the quarter, leading to a fall in the annual growth rate from 9.5% to 4.5%."

Posted by dill @ 08:25 AM 1 Comments

Oh dear.

BBC: House prices rose slightly in September, says Nationwide

House prices saw little change during September, according to the Nationwide building society. Prices rose by just 0.1% last month, following a 0.8% decline in August, Nationwide said, adding that "buyers appear to have a slightly better hand than sellers at the moment". The average house price now stands at just over £166,757, up from £166,507 a month earlier. Nationwide said September "proved to be an uneventful month for house prices".

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 07:22 AM 45 Comments

+0.1% MoM 3.1% YoY

Nationwide: September Index

Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “September proved to be an uneventful month for house prices. The seasonally adjusted price index for a typical UK property was essentially unchanged in September, edging up by a marginal 0.1% from its August level. That left the annual rate of house price inflation at 3.1%, down from 3.9% in August and 6.6% in July. The three month on three month rate of change – a good indicator of the near term price trend – fell from 0.0% in August to -0.9% in September. This represents the first negative reading for the three month rate of change since May 2009 and is consistent with the clear loosening of housing market conditions observed over the summer months."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 07:16 AM 3 Comments

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Slightly on the bearish side!

FT: Warning that UK could slide into economic abyss

The UK is currently experiencing a depression or, depression-like conditions, according to a strategist for Charles Stanley.... Mr Batstone-Carr said the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 meant the good times for investors were now over and compared the current economic situation to the depression of 1932. He said: "I think we are frankly in conditions if not depressionary we are pretty damn close to it. "If we were not a welfare state we would see people shuffling about with cardboard boxes on their feet."

Posted by jack c @ 10:19 PM 12 Comments

Agency Express’ latest property activity index

FT: Fragile housing recovery, warns Agency Express

Residential property sales activity plummeted by 10.1 per cent in September, data from Agency Express’ latest property activity index has shown. This raises concerns about the fragility of the housing market recovery as this is the sixth month this year that there has been monthly fall in the number of houses sold, claimed the 'for sale' board company.

Posted by jack c @ 10:07 PM 0 Comments

Zero rates have allowed big fat banks to sit on their big fat buttocks and earn 2-3%

The Web's biggest Benthamite bollocks buster: Banking's 'recovery' is being used to enable the Big to get even bigger - at lower and lower prices.

''Let me tell you what zero rates (ZIRP) and QE have done so far in terms of energising the flow of credit, and generally aiding a broad socio-economic recovery. Zilch. Now let me explain what these strategies have done for some elements of our 'risk' capitalist system - which in terms of wealth generation, by the way, can still knock agrarianism and communism into cocked hats....when it's not being stitched up for the benefit of around 0.6% of the global population.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:37 PM 0 Comments

The Charles Beans on saver

Guardian: Should savers really spend?

Read the full interview and absoutely outraged that this chap is on board of BoE, especially this one: " first that the banking system in Britain did not collapse, wiping out their savings, precisely because the Bank of England acted as lender-of-last-resort to the private banks to demand high interest rates now is like having one's cake and eating it. " Mr Bean seemed to have forgotten that had we had a total melt down, he and his MPC friends would be out of job and pension as well. He also have taken no responsibility whatsoever for failure to prevent us to get into this mess. Astonishing.

Posted by easybetman @ 06:23 PM 17 Comments

Gold is trading like it's lighter than air

Fortune: The case against gold

Matthew Keator, a partner in the Keator Group wealth management firm in Lenox, Mass., urges that you consider what you're giving up to buy gold at current prices. Every bit of income is important at a time when prices of all sorts of assets appear out of whack and employment statistics are less than uplifting. Gold can be a small part of a well diversified portfolio, he says, but with the emphasis on small. "The problem is you don't get paid to wait" for gold's next leg up, Keator said. "You need income in this environment, but gold doesn't give you that."

Posted by mark @ 01:31 PM 27 Comments

Another perspective from abroad

NZ Herald: Bernard Hickey - The free market god doesn't exist

Hands up who enjoyed the good times?

Posted by tom101 @ 01:08 PM 7 Comments

All good, solid bear-food.

Guardian: Mortgage approvals dip as demand for property weakens

Mortgage lending figures have fallen for the fourth month in a row... Howard Archer, UK economist at IHS Global Insight said the drop in mortgage "fuels our suspicion that house prices will fall back by some 10% over the latter months of 2010 and during 2011... High unemployment, muted wage growth, low consumer confidence, difficulties in getting a mortgage, a housing supply and demand balance, currently firmly in favour of buyers, and a house price and earnings ratio above long-term norms comprise an unhappy set of factors for house prices. Low interest rates and the current stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers on all properties costing up to £250,000 only partially offset these adverse factors."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:37 AM 7 Comments

Are Asian investors propping up the London Market?

Reuters: DEALTALK-London calling: Asia investors load up on UK property

Over the past year, Asians have invested a total of 761 million pounds, or more than $1 billion, in newly built apartments in central London, up from around 250 million pounds a year earlier, according to real estate company Knight Frank.

Posted by miken @ 11:14 AM 5 Comments

Chronic housing shortage

BBC Radio 4: Britain's Abandoned Homes

Jolyon Jenkins investigates the scandal of the million houses standing empty. With five million people on housing waiting lists the government is keen to get them back into use.

Posted by mken @ 11:11 AM 7 Comments

Landlords see more uncertainty and more downside

Property Talk Live: Landlord confidence in buy-to-let falls

Uncertainties in the housing market and the economy in general, problems with finance and worries about unemployment are all affecting landlords’ confidence in the buy-to-let market. "I'm concerned about tenants' ability to pay." "House prices are gently sliding backwards which makes returns more difficult." "There is a vast surplus of rental property." "High finance charges stop further expansion." "Fewer people coming to London to work because the economy has soured." "Given the current economic situation, I feel that rental arrears can only get worse as people are made redundant and benefits are cut."

Posted by drewster @ 10:49 AM 4 Comments

Seconds out, round eighty three: Techie versus HPW

BBC: Consumers repaying unsecured debt

"UK consumers repaid more unsecured debt than they took out in new loans in August, the Bank of England said. Net consumer credit - which includes credit card borrowing, overdrafts and personal loans - fell by £120m, the biggest drop since November 2009. The figures come shortly after the Bank's deputy governor, Charlie Bean, suggested savers go out and spend some of their savings to boost the economy. The number of mortgages approved for house purchases also dipped slightly. There were 47,372 home loans approved in August, some 974 fewer than the previous months, the Bank's figures show. This was the fourth monthly drop in a row."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:30 AM 31 Comments

1 in 4 Brits fear base rate rises

The Inside Edge: 1 in 4 Brits fear base rate rises

A QUARTER of British homeowners are worried about Bank of England base rates going up, after an 18 month period of 0.5 per cent rates, according to research from The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to hold base rate at 0.5 per cent at their monthly meeting in just over a week’s time, marking more than 18 months of no change. Interest rates will have to start rising at some point and if base rates were to return to pre-credit-crunch levels, average monthly payments could rocket by up to £563 (based on someone with a £150000 interest-only mortgage on a 2.5 per cent SVR and a base rate increase of 4.5 per cent.)

Posted by james marchington @ 08:07 AM 6 Comments

Capital controls eyed as global currency wars escalate

Telegraph: We won't be having a Japan style 'lost decade'

''Stimulus leaking out of the West's stagnant economies is flooding into emerging markets, playing havoc with their currencies and economies. Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Korea, Taiwan, South Africa, Russia and even Poland are either intervening directly in the exchange markets to prevent their currencies rising too far, or examining what options they have to stem disruptive inflows.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:44 AM 13 Comments

For Hash Browne


HOUSE prices defied expectations and rose last month to their highest level for two years, statistics showed yesterday. The 0.3 per cent jump reported by the Land Registry contradicts a run of grim data about the health of the market and was greeted with relief by experts.

Posted by little professor @ 02:44 AM 27 Comments

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

People’s faith in the value of paper money has already been shaken to its core

The Telegraph: Bank of England policy maker wants to debase the coinage even more

Has Adam Posen, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, gone stark raving mad? In a speech on Tuesday to the Hull and Humber Chamber of Commerce, he advocated another bout of quantitative easing, warning in terms that advanced economies are stuck in a classic liquidity trap which requires further fierce, pre-emptive policy action to get us out. It’s not inflation, but unemployment which is the real challenge for public policy, he insists.

Posted by devo @ 10:34 PM 13 Comments

Printy printy

Telegraph: Bank of England's Adam Posen urges more stimulus to avoid a Japan-style 'Lost Decade'

The Bank of England should be "aggressive about promoting recovery" and pump more money into the economy over the coming months to avoid a Japan-style "Lost Decade", said policymaker Adam Posen. Mr Posen said post-crisis developments have been broadly consistent with patterns as seen in 1990s Japan and in the US and Europe during the Depression years. "Policymakers should not settle for weak growth out of misplaced fear of inflation," he said in a speech to the Hull and Humber Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Shipping. He said in Japan the inflation threat of overheating was much exaggerated, and "as a result the Japanese people suffered a lost decade of employment and growth". "I think further easing should be undertaken," Mr Posen said.

Posted by drewster @ 10:01 PM 15 Comments

For the inflationists???? August inflation report

Bank Of England: Inflation Report Press Conference Webcast

ok so merve makes the statement. Of course everyone can listen to the whole thing but if you want to see where the BoE are coming from on inflation expectations (the criteria they are looking at etc.), use the drop down list under mervs mugshot and click on: "Policy Stance and Inflation Expectations".

Posted by techieman @ 06:46 PM 9 Comments

Bias moi??? :)

Zero Hedge: Prechter Reiterrates Call For Dow 1,000, Even As Surging Gold And Plunging Dollar Leave Much Credibility To Be Desired

"Prechter's call for a surging dollar (ahem), for a plunge in gold (ahem, ahem), and for a rout in stocks, has left quite a few investors with some unpleasant margin calls." short narrative and a video with the man himself.... judge for yourselves.

Posted by techieman @ 06:09 PM 25 Comments

...or should that be how it hasnt worked??

Bank Of England: Quantitative Easing - How it Works

Well that depends doesnt it, i mean if you argue that it was trying to get asset prices to rise and yields to fall, then you could say yep its worked. If, on the other hand, you say that it was designed to get money into the wider economy and encourage consumers etc, then at best the jury is out. As for inflation targets..... well thats for the floor. I just thought it would be nice to have this posted from the horses mouth.

Posted by techieman @ 06:05 PM 12 Comments

Even Brazil has seen it.

Yahoo afp: Brazil warns of world currency 'war': report

The world is in the grip of a currency "war", with leading nations using devaluation to solve economic problems, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega has warned in remarks reported from Sao Paulo.

Posted by mark @ 04:20 PM 4 Comments


Liverpool daily post: 91 Northwest Development Agency jobs go as almost 300 public sector staff face the axe

And, once the strategic spending review is announced on October 20, outlining the huge scale of public sector cuts to rein in the UK’s massive deficit, more NWDA jobs will be phased out ahead of the planned 2012 closure of all the England and Wales regional development agencies (RDAs).

Posted by mark @ 03:17 PM 2 Comments

Spend, Spend, Spend. BOE repeats mistakes.

MoneyWeek: Has the pound just had its Ratner moment?

Remember Gerald Ratner the former jewellery tycoon who told the world's press his company's products were "total crap." The pound may have just had its very own Ratner moment, courtesy of BOE deputy governor Charles Bean. To paraphrase, Mr Bean told savers: 'You might as well get out there and spend, because the BOE policy is to make sure that your savings aren't worth holding on to. Mr Bean is saying: "We don't care what inflation is. We want to force people to spend money." He's saying that the rules have changed. The Bank isn't targeting inflation any more – it's targeting some non-specific combination of economic growth and asset price inflation. That's a potentially lethal distinction to make.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 02:54 PM 18 Comments


Yahoo / reuters: Bank's Posen says more QE needed to avoid Japan-style slump

The Bank of England should start pumping more money into the economy in order to prevent Britain falling into the same kind of slump Japan did in the 1990s, Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen said on Tuesday. Arguing that while his vote at the October MPC meeting was not a foregone conclusion, Posen said right now he believed more stimulus was needed

Posted by mark @ 02:38 PM 3 Comments

Demographics and Politics or Rent?

Property Drum: Multi-Lingual Property Portal Launched

"As the rental market continues to grow, tenants with English as their second language now make up around a third of the rental market in major UK cities." Considering that 80% of 1st generation immigrants vote Labour, will this impact how the Conservatives treat home owners rather than renters?

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 02:00 PM 1 Comments


BBC News: Japanese consumer lender Takefuji files for bankruptcy

"Japanese consumer lender Takefuji Corporation has said it has filed for bankruptcy. The corporation said it had a debt of 433.6bn yen ($5.1bn;, £3.2bn), making it the biggest consumer lender to fail." Who's gonna lend to people to buy "stuff"...wil we have to save up and buy ?

Posted by thecountofnowhere @ 01:39 PM 0 Comments

Funny how wind farms weren't in the CPI shopping basket

BBC News: UK 'needs domestic wind energy industry'

The price of building offshore wind farms in has doubled in five years. ... This is accounted for by increasing raw material costs, currency movements (particularly the pound's fall against the euro), bottlenecks in the supply chain and construction in progressively more challenging sites. ... At the moment, about 80% of the materials and services involved in constructing an offshore wind farm are imported. Well done Gordon. You destroyed our enrgy security as well as the economy.

Posted by orcusmaximus @ 01:26 PM 5 Comments

Wonder how french property will be effected

Yahoo: France to unveil tough budget cuts

This amounts to de facto tax increases on certain previously favoured categories of worker and on some insurance and property investments as well as on domestic Internet, television and telephone connections.

Posted by mark @ 12:21 PM 1 Comments

+0.3% MoM +6.7% YoY

Land Registry: August Index

"August's monthly house price change of 0.3 per cent is the fifth month in a row in which the movement has been positive. It is, however, a fall from last month's figure. This changes the average property value in England and Wales to £167,423."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 11:08 AM 26 Comments

Following on from Mr Bean's savers comment

FT: Altmann says Bank of England decimating pensions

Dr Ros Altmann has criticised the Bank of England (BoE) for chasing short-term growth while "decimating" pensions. The independent policy adviser made the comments after the deputy BoE governor, Charlie Bean, told Channel 4 on Monday that a key aim of the bank's monetary policy was to hit savers hard. Dr Altmann said this was not a side effect of the bank's monetary measures designed to help the banks but a deliberate policy choice. She said: "The economic crisis resulted from too much debt and not enough saving - but short-sighted policy is repeating the same errors by attempting to undermine savers and damaging pensions.

Posted by jack c @ 10:20 AM 12 Comments

A surprising return from Para-Gone

Mortgagestrategy: Paragon returns to lending

Paragon Mortgages is returning to new lending this morning and is launching a new range of buy-to-let products targeted at professional landlord investors. The lender aims to widen choice and competition in the buy-to-let mortgage sector. Paragon will commence lending with immediate effect through a panel of brokers and will widen this distribution over the next few weeks. Paragon says it is fully committed to mortgage intermediary distribution, although it will also accept direct business.

Posted by jack c @ 10:11 AM 7 Comments

How the great property market bail-out is making you poorer

MoneyWeek: How the great property market bail-out is making you poorer

The government's attempts to avoid a house price crash will lead to higher inflation and lower wages for just about everyone.

Posted by damien @ 09:29 AM 4 Comments

It's not enough you serfs - says King - get spending more

Independent: Britons' saving falls by a fifth over 2010

As per title really, no great surprises in store. However: "Around 68% of people expect the Bank of England base rate to increase during the coming 12 months". Logically i'm inclined to agree but, then again, who says logic must dictate fiscal policy?

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:25 AM 4 Comments

Anglo-Irish ratings dive

WSJ - Europe: Ireland, Portugal Stir European Fears

Concerns over the financial stability of countries on the euro-zone's fringe mounted Monday as one of Ireland's largest banks had its credit rating cut and political tensions fueled doubts about Portugal's deficit-cutting plans

Posted by alan @ 08:18 AM 0 Comments

See my first comment

The Telegraph: Shut Down the Fed

We have a very odd world. The IMF has doubled its global growth forecast to 4.5pc this year, and authorities everywhere have ruled out a serious risk of a double dip recession. Yet at the same time the Bank of Japan has embarked on unsterilised currency intervention, which amounts to stimulus, and both the Fed and the Bank of England are signalling fresh QE. You can’t have it both ways.

Posted by devo @ 06:57 AM 5 Comments

What do the 70s and 90s tell us about house price falls?

ArabianMoney: How far will UK house prices fall on past precedent?

The past is often the only guide we have to the future. But it is not necessarily very helpful as regards the current situation in UK housing. ArabianMoney has previously explained why we see the post-1975 bubble in house prices coming to an end with the recent double top setting the market up for a huge fall.

Posted by arabianmoney @ 06:46 AM 0 Comments

Not crashing just sagging

Guardian: House prices sag as cuts cool demand

Property survey finds supply rising as interest wanes ahead of spending cuts and says prices must fall to entice buyers. Flagging demand for property in anticipation of deep cuts in public spending has left house prices falling in every region of England and Wales for the first time since the spring of 2009, according to a report out today. The property information company Hometrack said the cost of a home had dropped by 0.4% in September – the third monthly decline in a row – as interest from potential buyers dried up.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:21 AM 1 Comments

Monday, September 27, 2010

"You evil savers! Spend, spend spend. Don´t worry your jobs are safe."

Daily Mail: Spend for Britain: Bank tells UK's 22million savers to boost faltering economy

Deputy Bank of England Governor Charlie Bean said it was time for the public to 'spend for Britain' to boost the faltering economy. Britain's 22million savers have been told to give up on the idea of living off their income and start 'eating into' their capital. But he added: 'We want to see households not saving more, but spending more'. He says: 'The Governor [Mervyn King] gets more letters from savers complaining when we put interest rates down than he does from borrowers when we put rates up.'

Posted by cat and canary @ 08:48 PM 51 Comments

Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley forecast double dip

Estate Agent Today: City banks predict double dip in UK housing market

Global banks have expressed their concerns over the British housing market. US investment bank Morgan Stanley has said that Britain’s housing market is set for a double dip, while Deutsche Bank said that UK house prices remain ‘precariously high’.

Posted by mybrainhurts @ 08:13 PM 0 Comments

Top stuff, one fatal error...

Guardian: Land value taxation: a genuine alternative

"5. Finally, be aware that in shifting taxes away from work and enterprise and onto unearned income, you will be striking at the very foundations of elite wealth and privilege. This is not something to be afraid of. Indeed, in a democracy, it should be a very strong selling point." His BIG mistake is not to include bold capitals underlined "OF COURSE PENSIONERS' MAIN RESIDENCES WOULD BE EXEMPT" without which this idea will never fly, politically. Ah well.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 06:39 PM 7 Comments

Here we go again.......

Yahoo / telegraph: 'Oil price to double' how private investors can profit

While a renewed downturn would cause demand for oil to fall, the bank said this would be outweighed by the effect of low interest rates on the oil price. "The second round of quantitative easing that our economists expect in the first quarter of next year ... should help reflate oil prices even if US demand stays weak," it said. "We thus keep our 2011 crude forecasts of $85 a barrel intact."

Posted by mark @ 06:33 PM 6 Comments

When America Sneezes - Could this be the start of a long UK cold?

Eastate Agent Today: Bleak Disney Where prices Come Crashing Down Again

For those who think it can't happen - just look what is happening in America. Hope none of you bought in Disney?

Posted by mystie010 @ 04:30 PM 19 Comments

Ha ha! Take that, you Home-Owner-Ist!

Cumbria News & Star: Cumbrian estate agent sends bill to family after they refuse to drop house price

The estate agent then sent an invoice for £360 for preparation of a home information pack (HIP) plus a £117.50 administration fee. [Teh would be vendor] said: “We always knew we had to pay for the HIP but only when the house was sold. They’re asking me to pay for a service I haven’t had. I can’t afford to drop the price to the level they want and I haven’t got the £477.50, not with two daughters and Christmas coming up.” The [would be vendors] say they have recently spent £4,000 redecorating their home and buying new kitchen equipment. And they say potential buyers still want to view, undermining the Cumberland’s argument that they must drop the price to generate interest.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:37 PM 25 Comments

BTLer angry because banks wont lend hime more

Daily Moan: Businessman furious at banks' refusal to lend bricks up Barclays branch in protest

How did we get into a situation where borrowing any amount of money, anytime we want, with no questions asked is seen as a birthright?

Posted by papabear @ 02:05 PM 2 Comments

Ten per cent of homeowners are stupid - official

Your Mortgage: One in four parents want house prices to fall

"According to a survey conducted by the National Housing Federation, 34% of middle class parents with kids aged between 20 and 30 would like to see house prices stabilise, while 28% would rather see values fall in real terms... The research also revealed that 82% of middle class parents want more pressure on the banks to help first-time buyers, for example by increasing the availability of high loan-to-value mortgage loans." OK, 28% are smart enough to realise that falling prices is a better way of getting their kids into homeownership, so 72% don't. But 82% per cent want more reckless lending to keep the bubble going. By subtraction, 10% haven't really thought this through, have they?

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:50 AM 12 Comments

Catalyst for higher prices, as sterling is weakened to give the false impression of HPI?

FT: Europe’s central banks halt gold sales

Europe’s central banks have all but halted sales of their gold reserves, ending a run of large disposals each year for more than a decade. The central banks of the eurozone plus Sweden and Switzerland are bound by the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which caps their collective sales. The lack of heavy selling is important for gold prices both because a significant source of supply has been withdrawn from the market, and because it has given psychological support to the gold price. On Friday, bullion hit a record of $1,300 an ounce.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:28 AM 58 Comments

Not a HPC but ''repricing''

Independent: House prices fall across the whole country as buyers sit tight

Mr Donnell [Hometrack] said, however, that despite the worsening of market conditions, he did not expect to see a full-blown house price crash. "Over the rest of the year and into early 2011, agents will start to focus on repricing the property on their books to a level where transactions volumes are maintained," he said. "Talk of a double dip, with the implication being that the market will see double-digit house price falls, is over-done despite the weak outlook for demand. We expect a slowdown in the volume of homes coming to the market to limit the scale of absolute price falls over the next 12 months."

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:58 AM 10 Comments

Hometrack: -0.4% MoM

Daily Mail: House prices fall in every region of UK, even London

House prices are falling in every region of the UK for the first time since April last year, figures reveal today. The average cost of a home dropped by 0.4 per cent during September to £157,600, against the background of a mortgage famine and falling confidence, according to industry analysts Hometrack. Prices in London and the South East, which have previously been immune from price falls in other parts of the country, have also gone into reverse. 'Market expectations are now based upon the belief that there will be a period of continued house price falls,' Hometrack said.

Posted by little professor @ 01:40 AM 12 Comments

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Ramp ramp ramp

Telegraph: Property: Buying flats for children at university

Cherie Blair has done it several times over. Many others are turning to it. And foreign parents sending children to British universities are only too keen to jump on the bandwagon. Buying a property for your student child at university has become one of the smartest moves. As the Nationwide announced recently that house prices have dipped again, there may be more price reductions ahead and parents may take advantage. Recent research by Savills looking at the top 21 universities shows that prices are lowest in Leicester, Lancaster and Loughborough for flats, and lowest in Durham, Birmingham and Nottingham for terrace houses. Oxford, Bristol and Cambridge are the most expensive. But these are also cities that may see the greatest price growth in the years ahead.

Posted by drewster @ 10:37 PM 3 Comments

What first-time buyers really need is lower house prices

A fresh threat for embattled landlords

Basically let's spend YOUR money helping the world, I spend mine on for myself


About the 'upper class' who tell people to help the world and yet they have a different idea about what 'help the world' means when it comes to their own money.

Posted by easybetman @ 04:03 PM 2 Comments

Poverty-stricken single mother of four has house repossessed, is forced to rent

Mirror: Bankrupt Katona loses £1.25m home

Bankrupt Kerry Katona has been forced to sell her £1.25million home to help pay off her massive debts. Mum-of-four Kerry, 30, bought the seven-bedroom home four years ago - but now she could even face making a huge loss on it. A property-recovery firm has been told to sell the home in Wilmslow, Cheshire, as quickly as possible, meaning Kerry is unlikely to get anything close to its real value. Mum-of-four Kerry - now renting a home in Surrey - was declared bankrupt two years ago after failing to pay the final £82,000 of an unpaid £417,000 tax bill. The full extent of her money woes were laid bare as it emerged she and ex Mark Croft blew £10million in just five years.

Posted by drewster @ 11:42 AM 10 Comments

Voldemort banking: refusing a loan is a dark art

Mirror: Stable job, savings.. so why can't we get a mortgage?

Banks are using “dark arts” to find ways to refuse mortgages to hard-working families. A Sunday Mirror investigation has revealed buyers with stable jobs and savings have been knocked back with little explanation, or obscure reasons such as having hand-written payslips. One young father even claims he was rejected two days after the birth of his second child when HSBC decided that it might make his childcare costs too expensive. Mortgage experts told the Sunday Mirror banks routinely “tweak” their credit scoring systems and hide behind data protection laws.

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:58 AM 6 Comments

Surprisingly, Council of Mortgage Lenders Talking about House Prize Fall

Top News: Surprisingly, Council of Mortgage Lenders Talking about House Prize Fall

A warning has been issued by CML that if regulators will restrict mortgage lending, house prices will plunge.

Posted by when?? @ 07:49 AM 0 Comments

Sudden fall in Google stock may signal market crash

ArabianMoney: Was the Google 'flash crash' on Friday significant?

Google stock dropped more than 90 per cent in a spectacular mini ‘flash crash’ on Friday that may just turn out to be a technical error or something far more significant. The video below tells the story (which we cannot confirm as true although it looks solid). The May 6th ‘flash crash’ when the Dow lost almost 1,000 points in a matter of minutes comes instantly to mind (graph above). The US stock market has staged a long rally from its March 2009 low but the head-and-shoulders pattern over the summer is consistent with a major top and trend reversal.

Posted by peter cooper @ 05:02 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, September 25, 2010

The finance industry has effectively captured our government

The Telegraph: Policy makers must do more than print money and hope for the best

The Bank of England has run a £200bn QE operation – and the signs are there's more to come. It seems the Bank is now thinking about expanding the scope of QE to include purchases that go beyond Government bonds, taking a leaf out of the Fed's book by absorbing more corporate debt and dodgy mortgage-backed securities. The banking sector loves the idea of course, as it would allow them to offload yet more toxic waste on to the suckers that make up the bulk of the population.

Posted by devo @ 10:20 PM 31 Comments

Bye-bye buy-to-let

Telegraph (blogs): Lloyds slams brakes on buy-to-let mortgages

Lloyds Banking Group, which provided 60% of all buy-to-let mortgages last year, is to cut maximum lending to landlords to a fifth of what the bank was willing to advance in 2009. Mortgage brokers claim the move will restrict choice and weaken confidence, with the value of homeloans of all types already at a 10-year low and prices slipping, but Lloyds said the move was part of a routine review. With effect from the close of business on Friday, September 24, Lloyds – which owns Cheltenham & Gloucester (C&G) and BM Solutions – will restrict maximum buy-to-let loans to £2m per person, secured to no more than three properties. Ray Boulger of mortgage brokers John Charcol said: “They are slamming the brakes on after lending up to £10m per person on up to 10 properties last year."

Posted by drewster @ 11:23 AM 8 Comments

Prime isn't immune

Telegraph: Prices of luxury London homes drop for first time in 18 months

The closely-watched quarterly central London survey from Savills, the upmarket property agent, shows prices in the third quarter of 2010 are set to fall 0.9pc in Knightsbridge, Chelsea, Belgravia, Mayfair and Marylebone. This will be the first fall since the opening quarter of 2009 and has been caused by an increase in properties on the market as vendors seek to take advantage of a rise in prices, just as economic uncertainty limits buyer demand. The Savills research monitors properties roughly worth more than £1m in central London, a market considered to the most robust in the UK given the relative health of the capital’s economy and demand from equity-rich overseas buyers.

Posted by drewster @ 11:16 AM 0 Comments

Yanks can't pay

CNN: Modified mortgages redefault

We're a bit skint this month. Again.....

Posted by chrisch @ 10:02 AM 2 Comments

And the rest...

Friday, September 24, 2010

ICE = Too Big To Fail

Wall Street Journal: ICE Says CDS Clearing Growth May Bring Central Bank Support In Crisis

LONDON—A surge in credit-default-swaps clearing may allow global exchange operator IntercontinentalExchange Inc. access to central bank liquidity during financial crisis periods, the company's chief executive said Wednesday. Since the financial crisis, regulators have pushed for more central clearing of CDS contracts, but this has created the risk that clearing houses themselves become systemically important in the financial system. ICE Clear Europe and ICE Trust US have now cleared CDS with a gross notional value of $12 trillion, ICE said earlier Wednesday. Moody's Investors Service Inc. said this week that ICE's CDS clearing platforms are now "a systemically important part of the global financial market."

Posted by devo @ 11:28 PM 2 Comments

Nice of them to decide what is right and what is wrong. Thanks USA

BBC: US Congress committee approves China sanctions bill

"The bill would allow the US to impose import duties on countries who have fundamentally undervalued currencies"

Posted by tom101 @ 09:19 PM 5 Comments

The house of Cards is turning nasty

Fortune: Norway's central bank sues Citi

Norges Bank Investment Management says it lost $735 million buying Citi stock between 2007 and 2009, in part because it relied on inaccurate disclosures regarding the bank's subprime exposure. Citi was slow to tell investors in fall 2007 the true extent of its massive, destabilizing holdings of faltering subprime-related securities.

Posted by mark @ 08:06 PM 2 Comments

"We're really a property company, not a bad bank..."

Property Week: Head of lending at National Asset Management Agency reveals plans for “Irish REIT” to clear up disaster

Ireland's NAMA, which was formally established last December, has control over most of the 6,000 completed but unsold flats within the M50 motorway around Dublin. It also controls a further 10,000 that are zoned for development. “There is a rental market in Ireland. If you try and rent a property in Dublin, it’s the same price as London,” said Emmett. “There are 6,000 empty flats. There is a sustainable rental market and we’ve got the majority of it. If I let those flats and create a residential REIT using that income, suddenly I’ve got money available to repay the Exchequer.”

Posted by drewster @ 06:24 PM 2 Comments

More support for LVT

Guardian: Council tax is a fairer tax than most

Eric Pickles's decision to rule out property revaluation for council tax has pleased a lot of people. But the decision is disappointing, and public opposition to revaluation misplaced. There's no reason why a revaluation must lead to higher council tax bills on average. And the current system is deeply unfair. A revaluation of UK property for council tax is long overdue. The council tax system is based on the principle that those with more housing wealth pay more council tax. Sounds fair, right? So it's unclear why a revaluation of housing that's currently taxed on 1991 values should wind so many people up. But special pleading is at its worst when it comes to property. Property ladder devotees know that their pimped-up homes might push them up a band, so they make more noise.

Posted by drewster @ 06:14 PM 13 Comments

Meet the new boss...

Estate Agent Today: No more boom and bust for housing, Shapps declares

"A few months into office, and already the housing minister is saying: “There will be no return to the way it was, because boom and bust in housing cannot be allowed to happen again.” Grant Shapps said it at the National Housing Federation annual conference." Righty-ho, Shappsy, we are now right at the top of a boom (in Gordon Brown's defence, he said these immortal words when we were just coming out of the "bust" phase), so are you trying to say "We will keep the bubble inflated for as long as politically possible"???

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:45 PM 7 Comments

Interview with Kate Barker

CNBC: Bank of England Will Have to Hold its Nerve

First part of the Interview deals with monetary policy. Second part of the Interview discusses the Housing Market, starting at 08:17 Barker refers to the end of 'subsidy' for the Housing Market and the move into the "second leg down".

Posted by dill @ 03:10 PM 11 Comments

Great pics

Economics Help: UK National Debt

The UK national debt is the total amount of money the British government owes to the private sector and other purchasers of UK gilts.

Posted by mark @ 12:44 PM 1 Comments

See inflation and 200 million quid for a sandwich works OK

Yahoo: Zimbabwe forecasts 8.1% economic growth

Finance Minister Tendai Biti says Zimbabwe's economy will grow by 8.1 percent this year on the back of increased tobacco production, up from his previous forecast of 5.4 percent reports said on Friday.

Posted by mark @ 11:34 AM 2 Comments

That familiar chart again.....

Latest figures show the number of loans approved for those buying a new home fell to a 16-month low

The Daily Telegraph: Britain stuck in a 'mortgage famine'

It's very encouraging to see articles such as this. All the comments say that house prices must fall substantially before younger people are priced in again. Perhaps the bull trap is over and the long-awaited fear and capitulation stages are finally about to begin.

Posted by monty032 @ 09:44 AM 9 Comments

Tighter rules on mortgages will take ownership out of the reach of millions

The Daily Telegraph: Don't meddle with our right to buy a home

I've already had my "right" to buy a home taken away from me by the 1997-2007 bubble. Doctor of Finance and the median house in my far-from-wealthy commuter village outside York is priced at 5.5 times my salary.

Posted by monty032 @ 09:30 AM 15 Comments

An apologist for the spivs and gamblers writes

The Telegraph: Banking review is a chance to improve, not destroy, the system

Enough time has passed since the height of the financial crisis, two years ago, for most people to calm down. They have had plenty of opportunity to hear and debate the very many and complex arguments surrounding the future structure of banking in the UK. Those will be gone into again in formal detail, avoiding the danger of knee-jerk reactions beloved of those who assume Britain can do without its world-leading position in financial services.

Posted by devo @ 07:04 AM 1 Comments

Thursday, September 23, 2010

The most significant rolling back of bureaucracy and the state for decades

The Telegraph: Quango cuts: 177 bodies to be scrapped under coalition plans

The list discloses for the first time the extent of David Cameron’s plans for the “bonfire of the quangos”, designed to save the taxpayer billions of pounds. Thousands of jobs will go as part of the reforms.

Posted by devo @ 10:37 PM 21 Comments

As we know Debt is a four letter word... here is the proof

Debtwatch: Deleveraging with a twist

The latest Flow of Funds release by the US Federal Reserve shows that the private sector is continuing to delever. However there are nuances in this process that to some extent explain why a recovery appeared feasible for a while. The aggregate private debt to GDP ratio is now 267%, versus the peak level of 298% achieved back in February 2009–an absolute fall of 31 points and a percentage fall of 10.3% from the peak. This dwarfs any previous post-WWII experience–even the steep recession of the mid-1970s.

Posted by techieman @ 08:00 PM 4 Comments

Article from January - but worth a read

Investment and Business News: House prices: digging beneath the foundations

'Here is our first attempt to comprehensively summarise all the arguments for and against house prices going up in the future'.

Posted by rental john @ 05:34 PM 0 Comments

The view of over here from over there

Wall Street Journal: U.K. Mortgage Approvals Fall

Prospects for the U.K. housing market took another hit on Thursday as data showed the number of mortgage approvals slid to a 16-month low in August, weighed down by job fears and tight lending criteria.

Posted by rental john @ 05:24 PM 0 Comments

Has there been any houseprice crash in Scotland??

Registers of Scotland: Statistical News Release

Registers of Scotland published statistics today showing the volume of sales registered during the first quarter (April to June) of the financial year 2010/11 increased by 17.1% since the previous year, the total number of sales was 19,004 compared to 16,231 in the same quarter last year. Across Scotland the average price of residential property rose by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2010/11 compared with the same period last year.

Posted by monica123 @ 04:38 PM 0 Comments

Makes for a good read, some great stats

Bloomberg: How to Get Housing off Government's Juice

Government involvement in housing finance is an invitation to disaster. As illustrated by the S&Ls and GSEs, no matter how such a system is structured, government support will hide the real risks.

Posted by mark @ 03:57 PM 0 Comments

Deals with the issues of why we are here and explains why Bens medicine is not a panacea

Bearish News: Blame Friedman, Not Keynes

"In The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, Keynes wrote: -- “To dig holes in the ground,” paid for out of savings, will increase, not only employment, but the real national dividend of useful goods and services. It is not reasonable, however, that a sensible community should be content to remain dependent on such fortuitous and often wasteful mitigations when once we understand the influences upon which effective demand depends. -- This is dangerous thinking, which has inspired economists like Krugman in their quest for never-ending stimuli. There is no free lunch...." The article is short but accompanied by a thirty minute video. That video opens when you access the page. i will embed the vid below.

Posted by techieman @ 03:47 PM 7 Comments

Only a recession Warren? are you sure?

Yahoo / reuters: Warren Buffett: "We're still in a recession"

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy remains in recession, disputing this week's assessment by a leading arbiter of economic activity that the downturn ended more than a year ago. "We're still in a recession," Buffett told CNBC television in an interview broadcast on Thursday. "We're not gonna be out of it for a while, but we will get out."

Posted by mark @ 03:38 PM 0 Comments

Double Dip Anyone?

Daily Telegraph: Irish economy suffers shock contraction, fuels fears of a double-dip recession

Ireland's struggling economy suffered a fresh blow after growth contracted in the second quarter, heigthening the risk that the indebted nation could suffer a double-dip recession.

Posted by need-a-crash @ 02:21 PM 21 Comments

More Self-Certified Loan Lunacy

BBC: Affordable loans plan is unveiled

"A new not-for-profit lending scheme is being unveiled aimed at giving manageable loans to people who cannot obtain conventional loans... However, the interest being charged is higher than the maximum by law that credit unions can charge. It will charge 29.9% APR in the pilot scheme, rising to 49.9% APR in April... The "vast majority" of the set-up costs for the scheme have been met by the Department for Work and Pensions, according to the NHF. There has also been input from local housing associations and the Royal Bank of Scotland." Yup, you read that correctly, various quangoes are going to fire hose taxpayers' money at people who can't possibly afford to repay.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:02 PM 9 Comments

Common Sense

MoneyWeek: What first-time buyers really need is lower house prices

Stepek points out the elephant in the room plus some commentary about the FSA's recent efforts. "it's been a great week for people who like the idea of paying more money for their clothes and food. Cotton hit a new high, at a time when retailers are already warning of rising clothing prices. And of course, we've all heard about surging grain prices. Does that sound daft? It is. But it makes no more sense to cheer rising shelter costs than it does to be pleased about rising food or clothing prices. And yet, we still can't seem to get our heads around the idea that falling house prices might actually be a good thing."

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:02 PM 1 Comments

Banks likely to escape breakup by U.K. commission

Bloomberg News: Banks Likely to Escape Breakup by U.K. Commission

The Government and the Banks all pee in the same pot, they just pay lip service to the public to stop them rioting and to continue to fleece the public with higher taxes to finance banks, .....QE2 will be financed by you and me. "The British government commission that convenes tomorrow is unlikely to propose breaking up the country’s biggest banks after three of the five biggest lenders threatened to leave the country rather than accept change."

Posted by mr cobblepot @ 10:58 AM 0 Comments

The painful story of Buy-to-Let in Cardiff

WalesHome: We were all losers

Unusually, a piece from someone who was working as part of the industry during those boom years.

Posted by david jones @ 10:49 AM 3 Comments

O give a definitive ruling on the extent of householders' duties towards workmen

Dailymail: Polish builder who fell off ladder sues homeowner for not letting him traipse through home in muddy boots to get to roof

The builder blames Mrs Isaacs for the accident because he was prevented from using a safer access route to the roof via a bedroom window after she declared her £4million family home 'out of bounds' to workmen.

Posted by mark @ 10:38 AM 18 Comments

On the downslope and gathering pace..........

BBC: Bank mortgage approvals dip again

The number of mortgages for home buyers approved by banks fell in August for the third month in a row. Banks approved 31,767 home loans, the lowest number so far this year, down from 34,219 in July, the British Bankers' Association (BBA) said. The figures are another indication that the UK property market has reached a plateau.

Posted by jack c @ 10:11 AM 8 Comments

High House prices have caused this

BBC wales: Homelessness figures on the rise in Wales

The number of households classed as homeless in Wales rose 10% in the year to June 2010, latest figures show. Shelter Cymru said it was seriously concerned about the impact of mortgage and rent arrears on homelessness.

Posted by mark @ 09:27 AM 2 Comments

Things are different this time *LOL*! QE3, 4, 5 anyone?

Bloomberg: Central Banks Have Tough Time Finding Exit as Recovery Weakens

The world’s major central banks are having a tough time exiting crisis mode, prolonging aid or raising the prospect of reviving unconventional stimulus tools as the global recovery loses momentum.

Posted by estrader @ 08:15 AM 11 Comments

The true cost of the FSA plans to clamp down on mortgage lending

Housing Expert: FSA plans to crack down on 'liar loans' could see house prices fall by 25%

Great piece on the potential cost of an FSA clamp down on 'liar loans'. Lenders are still providing nearly 45% of mortgages to people with little if any proof of income. What could this do to house prices? Henry Pryor thinks it could tip them over the edge!

Posted by charles lister @ 07:56 AM 1 Comments

Interesting headline

BBC News: Mortgage plan will force house prices down, CML warns

The CML's hissy fit has already been adequately covered on the blog but I wanted to post this for two reasons: the title (one of the bluntest I've ever seen on house prices) and this bit, towards the end: "Mr Coogan argued that if prices fell again, undermining the security houses gave lenders for loans already made, then mortgage rationing would continue and many more people would be locked out of home ownership." Yeah, Coogan is praying for the priced out generation - to make sure we stay that way.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:40 AM 13 Comments

How migrants make such great headlines


A GANG of Lithuanian squatters is behind a terrifying scam in which people’s homes are seized and locks changed while they are out, it has emerged. The illegal tenants have been holed up in one property for at least five months and the authorities are powerless to evict them without a court order. In another case, an elderly man took his dogs for a walk and returned home to find the Lithuanian gang had moved in and were throwing all his possessions out of the window and into his front garden. Tenants have been told the police are powerless to act as the occupation of their homes is a civil matter.

Posted by drewster @ 01:34 AM 16 Comments

Vince Cable brings Land Value Tax back to the table

Daily Fail: Now Cable targets land and property: Business Secretary steps up his war on the wealthy

A defiant Vince Cable threatened new taxes on property and land yesterday as he stepped up his war on the wealthy. He opened up a new flank by signalling that he is pressing for ‘progressive’ taxes which would hit better-off homeowners and landowners. Mr Cable said he wanted to ‘shift the tax base to property and land, which cannot run away and represent, in Britain, an extreme concentration of wealth’. With all the land in Britain worth around £5 trillion, a 0.5% levy could raise £25 billion a year – as much as a 5p rise in income tax. The Business Secretary also said he regretted that his proposed ‘Mansion Tax’ – a one per cent annual levy on properties worth £2million or more – had been blocked by the Tories.

Posted by drewster @ 01:30 AM 15 Comments

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Isn't this just another word for privatisation?

Press Association: Housing bodies 'should be mutuals'

Housing associations should be run as mutuals in a bid to unlock funds to enable them to build an extra 100,000 affordable homes a year, a think-tank said. Policy Exchange said housing associations should turn away from raising money through debt and Government grants and instead offer shares to a range of groups, including institutional investors, as well as small shareholders and even tenants. It said housing associations were sitting on assets worth at least £90 billion and had an annual turnover of more than £11 billion. The group estimates that by switching to equity funding, housing associations could raise £30 billion to spend on building affordable homes, while still paying a dividend to investors.

Posted by drewster @ 11:34 PM 6 Comments

News Flash - Inflation ALERT.

Yahoo / telegraph: Global food risk from China-Russia pincer

There is a widely-held view that roaring "agflation" and record gold prices signal inflation, evidence that ultra-loose monetary policy in the US and Europe is leaking excess liquidity into the world. Japan is the latest country to boost liquidity, launching "unsterilised" yen sales.

Posted by mark @ 07:30 PM 13 Comments

Companies fail due to delayed govt contracts, yet August deficit was a record high

Wilkins Kennedy (accountants): Public sector suppliers suffer surge in insolvencies as Government cuts take hold

The number of businesses supplying goods and services to the public sector going bust has leapt by 47% in the last year, says accountancy firm Wilkins Kennedy. Data suggests that the Government’s austerity measures are now leading to corporate failures and job losses. There were 168 businesses in the health & social services, education and defence sector that went bust in the first six months of 2010 versus 114 in the first half of 2009. Corporate insolvencies as a whole have fallen by 5% over the same period. “Whilst the real cost-cutting that this Government has threatened has yet to take place we are already seeing a wide range of companies – be they in recruitment, outsourcing, construction or marketing services – fail because of delayed contracts."

Posted by drewster @ 06:09 PM 8 Comments

That was the whole point, you ****

24 Dash: New mortgage lending rules are 'fatally flawed'

New rules for mortgage lending are "fatally flawed" and will lead to house price falls, a lending body said today... "Interest-only mortgages will disappear from the market in the future." [Michael Coogan] said the unintended consequences of the new mortgage regulations were that it was likely to "stifle innovation and opportunity" and he urged the FSA to urgently reassess its proposals. He said: "We do not want to sleepwalk into a housing finance market which is sustainable, but meets almost nobody's aspirations because it is so risk-averse."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:31 PM 12 Comments

The golden opportunity for homebuying AS A HOME, NOT AN INVESTMENT might be closer than ever?

Telegraph: The golden era of home ownership is 'over', says mortgage boss

The golden age of home ownership is over, the head of the Council of Mortgage Lender says, as he claims new rules on mortgage lending will cause house prices to fall. Thousands of home owners are unable to find an affordable mortgage, while house prices have dropped since a mini property boom earlier this year. BUT: Housing minister Grant Shapps said: “I have made clear that I will support the 1.4 million aspiring homeowners whose ambitions are thwarted by a lack of mortgage availability. “That’s why as a Government we're making efforts to tackle the record deficit we inherited, to ensure that interest rates remain low and to bring back a golden age of home ownership.” Hmm...

Posted by mick rupert @ 01:12 PM 0 Comments

He claims new rules on mortgage lending will cause house prices to fall.

Yahoo: The golden era of home ownership is 'over', says mortgage boss

The golden age of home ownership is over, the head of the Council of Mortgage Lender says, as he claims new rules on mortgage lending will cause house prices to fall. The new rules, which include tough guidelines on how much a person can borrow, are expected to be enforced next year.

Posted by mark @ 01:11 PM 17 Comments

Must keep up with the yanks

City Wire: Bank indicates QE2

Looks like its coming then?

Posted by chrisch @ 11:58 AM 54 Comments

Bernanke confuses markets that never like uncertainty

ArabianMoney: Bernanke leaves the markets unsure where to go next

Weak US housing data, high unemployment and declining consumer confidence are holding back a US recovery. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke gave little clue yesterday about how he intends to proceed leaving financial markets unsure which way to jump.

Posted by arabianmoney @ 11:02 AM 0 Comments

Who will clear up this mess ??

Ftadviser: "Startling" UK pensions gap of £318bn per annum

Adults retiring in the next 50 years must put away on average £10,300 a year after mortgage costs and student loan repayments! This is not going to happen unless there are some major changes or additional compulsory pension contributions.

Posted by khards @ 10:41 AM 2 Comments

Why the high house prices?

Telegraph: British Isles 'worst place to live in Europe'

The British Isles are the worst place to live in Europe, according to a new survey that claims residents endure higher prices, work harder and receive poorer public services than their counterparts on the continent. AND HOUSES PRICES ARE SO HIGH MAKES IT WORSE FOR THE UNDER 30's

Posted by khards @ 10:35 AM 15 Comments

Buy to let clampdown

Mortgage Strategy: Lloyds axes B2L via C&G and Lloyds TSB Scotland

I'm loving some of the comments: "This is awful. ... It will only lead to lack of rental properties, which combined with FTB having a hard time getting onto the ladder anyway will bring the market to a standstill", "Just 3 properties BTL over the whole Lloyds group. We may as well admit that BTL for an average BTL client is over". Yippee and hurray.

Posted by neil @ 10:30 AM 0 Comments

Rip-off Britain: Holding back house prices?

This is Money: How Britons pay more for mortgages

Britain's banks are apparently using homebuyers as cash cows. Research reveals the mark-up on mortgages is the highest in the Western world. So surely if that were reversed - rates cut - then they'd be a boost for house prices. ?

Posted by db turner @ 10:15 AM 0 Comments

This has to be wrong too...

EWI: The Fed Is Not In Control: Potent Directors Fallacy

i mean the fed can do what it likes when it likes for as long as it likes right? .... nope wrong: "It's nearly impossible to find a treatise on macroeconomics that does not assert or assume that the Federal Reserve Board has learned to control both our money and our economy. Many believe that it also possesses immense power to manipulate the stock market. The very idea that it can do these things is false. It is what I call the 'Potent Directors' Fallacy. In reality -- the Fed has no such power."

Posted by techieman @ 09:47 AM 1 Comments

Hang on you cant have deflation in a fiat system... er can you?

EWI: Deflation or Inflation: Will Helicopter Bernanke Come Flying to the Rescue?

"Countless people say that deflation is impossible because the Federal Reserve Bank can just print money to stave off deflation. If the Fed’s main jobs were simply establishing new checking accounts and grinding out banknotes, that’s what it might do. But in terms of volume, that has not been the Fed’s primary function, which for 89 years has been in fact to foster the expansion of credit. Printed fiat currency depends almost entirely upon the whims of the issuer, but credit is another matter entirely. "

Posted by techieman @ 09:44 AM 5 Comments

Bankster's game: heads I win tails you lose Banks squeezing building societies out of mortgage market

The government bailout of the banks has given them access to cheaper borrowing, providing them with a competitive advantage over building societies, says Datamonitor. It says there are some positive signs of growth in the mortgage market but due to the government bailout brought in at the peak of the financial crisis, the competitive dynamics have changed. Daoud Fakhri, analyst at Datamonitor, says most people would have expected building societies to emerge from the credit crisis in a stronger position than banks but it seems that although they didn’t engage in high-risk lending which contributed to the banking crisis they have still suffered.

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:03 AM 4 Comments

Great news! - Who'd want to be just starting out in the UK now?

Telegraph: State pension costs to soar in 2012 as 800,000 baby boomers turn 65

More than 800,000 people will celebrate their 65th birthday during the year – 150,000 more than in 2011, according to the Department for Work & Pensions. The massive increase, which stems from the post-war spike in births in 1946 and 1947, will lead to a significant rise in government spending on the state pension.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:03 AM 24 Comments

House sales up 11% on last year

Telegraph: House sales halve

Hang on a minute - they're spinning it the other way. What's going on????? Has the world been turned upside down?

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 08:52 AM 6 Comments

Interesting bit of spin from NHF

Daily Mail: Parents want a house price FALL to help their children get on the property ladder

A third of middle-class parents are hoping house prices fall to help their children buy their first home. The research finding highlights the widespread fear that the children of today are facing a lifetime of renting. That contrasts with today's householders, many of whom were able to buy their homes at relatively low prices. The study, from the National Housing Federation, also found that nearly 60 per cent of parents feel obliged to give their children money for a deposit.

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:46 AM 8 Comments

CML worried as mortgage funding has to be repaid

The Daily Telegraph: Families face new credit crunch

Banks will soon have to start repaying the various support schemes and replace the money with more expensive market funding.

Posted by monty032 @ 07:47 AM 5 Comments

Better late than never

BBC: Vince Cable to launch attack on 'murky' City practices

Vince Cable is to launch an outspoken attack on City greed and self-interest later as he seeks to soothe Lib Dem concerns about the coalition.

Posted by devo @ 06:42 AM 6 Comments

Sounds good to me

Telegraph: Lord Turner's 'unpopular' credit control plans to prevent future bubbles

'Regulators will have the power to cap mortgages, limit credit to real estate investors, and force banks to restrict lending....Regulators will have the power to cap mortgages, limit credit to real estate investors, and force banks to restrict lending under powers that echo the 1980s – the last time credit could be switched on and off by a central watchdog. '

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:18 AM 3 Comments

Spurious survey from the regular comedy club

Assetz Newz: UK interest in foreign property rises

A report has revealed that 72% of Britons believe that now is a good time to buy property overseas, and 82% believe it is a good time to buy real estate at in the UK. The poll recorded a drop in the amount of people who believed that interest rates would increase in the next year (46%), which is the second lowest figure recorded since the survey began a year ago, and much lower than April's peak figure of 79%. More than half of those questioned say low borrowing rates have spurred their interest in buying property in the UK.

Posted by drewster @ 12:10 AM 1 Comments

Left-wing newspaper says Thatcher's policies were bad

Guardian: The wrong housing right

In a society used to regarding rent as "money down the drain", the right to buy has become a sacred tenet of government policy. Grant Shapps, the Conservative housing minister, is insistent that it won't be tinkered with despite pressure from the Lib Dems. More than two million people have bought their council homes in the 30 years since the policy was officially introduced by Margaret Thatcher; most of them a house, not a flat, on a "nice" estate. The value of those homes on the open market has held stable, or, in London, gone through the roof, giving working-class families access to the kind of transferable, heritable wealth that was once the preserve of the middle class. No wonder the policy has been so popular with those who have benefited from it.

Posted by drewster @ 12:06 AM 0 Comments

Market grinds to a halt as potential buyers wait and see

Press Association: Figures show fall in property sales

The number of homes changing hands fell during August in a further indication that activity in the housing market is faltering, Government figures show. Around 85,000 properties worth more than £40,000 were sold during the month, down from 90,000 in July, according to HM Revenue & Customs. The figures highlight the current subdued state of the housing market, as although they were up on the 79,000 transactions that took place in August last year, the level was less than half the 162,000 homes that were sold in August 2007, before the credit crunch impacted on the market. The data comes the day after the Council of Mortgage Lenders said lending last month had fallen to its lowest level for August for a decade.

Posted by drewster @ 12:03 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Indian say no thanks to UK Foreign Aid

Sentiment is turning almost across the board

A1 Mortgage Rates: Report Warns Of A House Price Crash

...shock figures...hard to be optimistic...blah blah blah....… ". . .It suggests housing is going nowhere fast.”

Posted by bill @ 04:35 PM 0 Comments

Radical dude!

Inside Housing: Planners seek radical house building model

In a series of papers issued to coincide with the political party conference season, the Town and Country Planning Association calls for a ‘radical’ new house building model. Under the proposals developers would be offered 100 per cent capital allowances and given access to council bonds in return for building on agreed ‘enterprise zones’.

Posted by greenmind @ 04:28 PM 0 Comments

Hmmm build more houses and unemployment is getting worse

Cnn Money: Jobs picture gets worse in 27 states

The national unemployment rate may have only ticked up slightly in August, but on a state-by-state basis, the jobs picture continues to look a lot more grim in places like Nevada, Michigan and California. A total of 27 states reported higher unemployment rates in August, nearly double the 14 that saw increases in July, the Labor Department said in its monthly report on state unemployment Tuesday.

Posted by mark @ 04:01 PM 7 Comments


Fortune: World's most inept central bankers

Here are three central banks that have both raced for the bottom and caused a kerfuffle, much to their citizens' dismay.

Posted by mark @ 02:11 PM 2 Comments

Put your fingers in your ears, go "lalalalala" and buy a house.

MSN Money: Five reasons you should buy property now

Never mind all the gloom: it’s a good time to buy a home. Here’s why. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictable timing from the VI crowd.

Posted by estrader @ 01:25 PM 28 Comments

So, is Everybody Waiting? Landlords must wait for good mortgage rates

Buy-to-let investor landlords looking to add to their property portfolios using mortgage finance would be best waiting for a couple of years

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 12:35 PM 7 Comments

Tories refuse a moratorium on RTB

Guardian: 'Right to buy' scheme puts coalition at loggerheads

"The right to buy has given many households access to home ownership but not to better places. The buyers were social renters to begin with, and for a reason. They have less money than most people, find it harder to get a mortgage and now cannot attract buyers for ex-council homes which are unpopular," van Ham says. Interesting article all-round; particularly enjoyed seeing the Lewisham couple's anecdote again - that one (along with a few other questionable sub-prime candidates) did the rounds a a year or so ago.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 11:56 AM 4 Comments

Hello banks, can we have our money back please??

38 Degrees: Cuts – what should 38 Degrees do?

"In October, the government will be publishing plans to massively cut public spending. Many 38 Degrees members have been in touch expressing concern about the government’s plans and with ideas for ways in which we could work together to influence the debate. 38 Degrees has a huge impact because thousands of us work together. That includes deciding what we do together. What do you think we should do together as the new government prepares to slash spending?" HERE ARE SOME IDEAS FOR SAVING MONEY: WHAT ABOUT NOT HAVING BAILED OUT THE BANKS IN THE FIRST PLACE? WHAT ABOUT A GOVERNMENT ACT TO LEGISLATE FOR FAIR PROPERTY PRICES SO THAT WE, THE PEOPLE, ARE NOT RINSED LEFT, RIGHT AND CENTRE BY GREEDY VENDORS, ESTATE AGENTS AND BTL PARASITES?? :-)

Posted by mick rupert @ 10:30 AM 9 Comments

What the...?

Greater London Authority: Mayor and HCA (Homes & Communities Agency) to help 1,000 families get a foot on property ladder

Nearly 1,000 families, currently in rented and particularly overcrowded accommodation, will be able to take their first step towards owning their own home in London under plans unveiled today by the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, and the London Homes and Communities Agency (HCA). The First Steps for families initiative supports the Mayor’s aim to increase the proportion of family sized homes built for low cost home ownership. It will see up to 1000 new homes made available over the next 3 years to families aspiring to own their new property. "Today we begin extending the opportunity to those Londoners, who have only ever rented their council or housing association property, to start building up a stake in their new home and fulfilling that dream."

Posted by drewster @ 10:24 AM 4 Comments

More Baby Boomer Bashing! House prices to ease while capital shrinks for non baby boomers

AGEING baby boomers will ensure the next generation sees none of the house price appreciation that they enjoyed. ------------------------------ Some of the comments are interesting and funny.

Posted by estrader @ 10:17 AM 0 Comments


Yahoo / reuters: Public borrowing at record high for August

Britain's public sector net borrowing last month posted a record high for the month of August as interest payments on gilts shot up because of higher inflation, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

Posted by mark @ 09:49 AM 2 Comments

Tyre Inflation

Bloomberg: Bridgestone, Goodyear Face Worst Rubber Shortage in Four Years

Stockpiles of the raw material, also used in gloves and condoms, will drop 12 percent to 67 days of demand next year, the lowest level in at least a decade, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Consumption will outpace supply by 127,000 metric tons, the most since 2007, the bank estimates. Futures in Singapore may jump 20 percent by March, said Makoto Sugitani, a senior director at Newedge Japan Inc., who correctly predicted the rally in January. That would mean a record $4.20 a kilogram.

Posted by mark @ 09:47 AM 10 Comments

UK has a contracting economy

City AM: Blow for King as money supply falls

Inflation or deflation? It seems to be a hot debate on the forum. Here's some fuel to tip on the fire....

Posted by chrisch @ 09:16 AM 10 Comments

UK housing bubble finally popped?

ArabianMoney.Net: Panic begins to grip UK housing market as the bubble pops

UK house prices have fallen for three months in a row while in August UK mortgage lending dropped to a 10-year low of $15 billion. It looks as though the UK housing bubble is finally bursting after a massive double top in the market, the classic technical indicator of a coming big drop back to previous lows.

Posted by arabianmoney @ 05:24 AM 0 Comments

Recovereh stalling


MORTGAGE lending fell to its lowest level in August for a decade, sparking fears of another property slump. £11.4billion was lent in August, down 14% from July, and the lowest August figure since 2000, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said. The figures were described as “exceptionally weak” by Bob Pannell, chief economist of the CML, who warned: “We face the prospect of a difficult second half of the year.”

Posted by little professor @ 01:16 AM 10 Comments

Monday, September 20, 2010

They could even pay the mortgage and CCs!

CNBC: UK Proposes All Paychecks Go to the State First

The UK's tax collection agency is putting forth a proposal that all employers send employee paychecks to the government, after which the government would deduct what it deems as the appropriate tax and pay the employees by bank transfer. The proposal by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) stresses the need for employers to provide real-time information to the government so that it can monitor all payments and make a better assessment of whether the correct tax is being paid. Now lets see: large government IT project - what could possibly go wrong? I know lets give the contract to an American corporation, that'll work.

Posted by sureseam @ 09:58 PM 2 Comments

3,597 empty properties to be brought into use

BBC News Cornwall: Cornwall Council in empty homes strategy

Mark Kaczmarek, the council's cabinet member for housing and planning, said: "There is a huge shortage of housing in Cornwall which is fuelling high house prices and preventing many ordinary local people from affording a decent home." ... It also plans to provide interest free loans of up to £20,000 to "make decent" empty properties by carrying out essential repairs and installing basic amenities.

Posted by powerofnow @ 08:39 PM 13 Comments

More fuel for inflation?

Yahoo: Fashion chains far from cheerful about future of cheap chic

It was a sign of the times: fashion so cheap it became "disposable" as globalisation brought containerloads of low-cost clothes to the UK. But the days of the £4 jeans and £2 T-shirt could be numbered, with analysts and retailers now warning that the era of constantly reducing prices is coming to an end.

Posted by mr g @ 07:46 PM 4 Comments

Fighting deflation with a vengeance

Daily Telegraph: QE2 in round trillions

QE: $30 trillion... "....collosal adventure into the unknown."

Posted by tom101 @ 07:17 PM 12 Comments

EMU Maginot Line economics?

Telegraph: The IMF itself has become the problem as Europe's woes return

Portugal neared the line on Friday when Diário de Noticias cited three ex-finance ministers warning that the country might have to call in the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Posted by rental john @ 06:18 PM 0 Comments

Story on the century, sounds made up to me

Yahoo: US exits longest recession since World War II

"The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II," the bureau said in a statement. More than eight million jobs were lost in the slump that was triggered by dodgy Wall Street mortgage investments

Posted by mark @ 04:22 PM 14 Comments

More repossessions in the pipeline?

MSE: URGENT Changes to Morgage Interest Support

I'm not sure if it's bad form to link to other forums but thought this was worth highlighting. Seemingly a fair few people hanging on by their fingernails, complaining that the government should be offering more support. A perfect storm brewing.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 03:54 PM 17 Comments

And the bad news just keeps coming

Telegraph: UK mortgage lending slides to 10-year low

UK mortgage lending fell to a 10-year low of £11.4bn in August, further reinforcing fears that the recovery in the housing market is fading.

Posted by mark @ 11:28 AM 15 Comments

Whose hand is on the HPC spigot?

Counterpunch: The swelling backlog

Writer claims that US government programmes to 'help homeowners' (i.e. to maintain mortgages as 'performing' loans) were simply stalling devices - they staunched the flow of foreclosed houses onto the market while the real action ticked away elsewhere. The real action was the stealth bailout of banks (slow and stealthy, disguised as helping borrowers to avoid the howls of protest that followed the TARP bailout) in which the Fed transferred $1.25 trillion to bank reserves in exhange for non-performing loans and MBSs. Now the banks are stuffed with reserves they no longer need to play the game of dribbling foreclosures onto the market. They can open the spigot and let the HPC take its course.

Posted by icarus @ 10:51 AM 1 Comments

How much are prices falling? 15%? 20%? 25%?......

Housing Expert: Asking prices are plummeting

Great piece highlighting the price reductions that are happening up and down the country. 1/3 of all properties for sale have been marked down over the summer as asking prices remain detached from sale prices.

Posted by charles lister @ 10:01 AM 3 Comments

One for Alan

Yahoo / reuters: Gross mortgage lending falls 6 percent year-on-year in August

Gross mortgage lending fell 6 percent year-on-year in August to 13.3 billion pounds, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said on Monday. That was the lowest August total since 2000 and represented a drop of 14 percent from July. The figures chimes with other surveys in showing a cooling in the housing market following a sharp recovery in the second half of 2009.

Posted by mark @ 10:00 AM 2 Comments

Me thinks it is time for bigger cuts

Bbc: 9,000 in public sector get more pay than prime minister

More than 9,000 public sector employees are earning a higher wage than the prime minister, who has previously questioned pay levels in top jobs.

Posted by mark @ 08:39 AM 20 Comments

Rightmove: -1.1% MoM, +2.6% YoY

Daily Mail: Double dip fear as house prices fall for the third month in a row

Property prices have fallen for the third month in a row, according to worrying figures released today. The average asking price for houses during the five weeks to September 11 dipped by 1.1 per cent to £229,767, according to property website Rightmove. New sellers have now dropped their asking prices by 3.4 per cent – or more than £8,000 – during the past three months, wiping out half of the gains made during the first half of the year.

Posted by little professor @ 12:17 AM 31 Comments

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Rightmove Down 1.1%

Yorkshire Post: Asking prices for houses fall for third month in a row

Property asking prices fell for the third month in a row during September as estate agents continued to have record levels of unsold stock on their books. The average cost of a home put up for sale in England and Wales during the five weeks to September 11 dipped by 1.1 per cent to £229,767, the property website Rightmove says today. New sellers have now dropped their asking prices by 3.4 per cent, or more than £8,000, during the past three months, wiping out half of the gains which were recorded during the first half of the year.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 10:42 PM 0 Comments

Nothing's fixed

Zero Hedge: European Central Bank Stepped In To Rescue Ireland

The FT has confirmed Friday's rumours that it was just the ECB's intervention that prevented domino number two - Ireland - from toppling, and taking with it all of Europe. "The European Central Bank intervened to stabilise the Irish bond markets on Friday after a report by a leading UK bank triggered investor fears that the country might turn to the international community for a multibillion-euro bail-out."

Posted by devo @ 09:48 PM 8 Comments

Cloud cuckoo land?

Yorkshire Post: Index shows improvement in the feelgood factor

Consumer confidence rose for the first time since the general election during August as people felt more optimistic about the economic recovery.

Posted by mr g @ 07:28 PM 1 Comments

This won't help the housing market.

Yorkshire Post: Confident of a job, but less salary

The majority of students are confident they will be able to get a job when they finish university but they expect to earn significantly less than today's graduates

Posted by mr g @ 07:25 PM 1 Comments

Would this see a return to ethical banking?

Yorkshire Post: Report urges more strength for mutuals

The Government should create a new Minister for Mutuals to help to promote the sector and put competitive pressure on the big banks, says a report.

Posted by mr g @ 07:21 PM 0 Comments

Government will inflate away the property bubble

Spectator: Don’t bet the house on a property plunge

The bubble may have burst, says Ross Clark, but a crash looks unlikely. For now, property remains a sensible investment — better than sticking cash in a low-interest account. "Why risk your capital in a savings account for puny interest which isn’t even keeping up with inflation? I keep wanting to put it into something solid: gold or property. I remain convinced that we face a second correction in real property prices. Rental yields remain too low. And yet still I don’t believe that investing in property is necessarily a disastrous thing to do at the moment. A fall in real property prices, yes, but a crash in actual prices? I wouldn’t bet on it. The coalition will try every trick to generate inflation rather than suffer millions more being plunged into negative equity."

Posted by drewster @ 01:21 PM 30 Comments

Pensioners start war on Mervyn King and BOE

Dailymail: Bank's money printing programme to boost economy hits pensions

According to the Pension Protection Fund, which covers members in the event of a default, the 6,653 schemes in the fund saw their position worsen from a combined surplus of £6.6 billion at the end of July to a deficit of £53.5 billion at the end of August. This means that the funds as a whole could not meet their commitments if they fell due at once. The fund estimates that every 0.3 per cent fall in gilt yields pushes up a scheme's liabilities by six per cent. In today's values, that would be equivalent to £59 billion. Yields have fallen by 0.44 per cent since the quantitative easing programme began in March 2009. They are currently just over three per cent, roughly the same as the annual inflation rate - an extraordinarily low level.

Posted by mark @ 01:02 PM 3 Comments

Smart money or lambs to the slaughter?

Times of India: London calling: Asia investors load up on UK property

Without ever setting eyes on the property, Hong Kong resident Irene Chu snapped up a flat 6,000 miles away in London, a city she has visited but has no intention of ever living in. "I'm not buying the high-end property. I just bought one close to the tube line and that's a pretty safe investment," said the 40-something business executive who paid £215,000 pounds for her apartment. Chu isn't alone. Over the past year, Asians have invested a total of £761million in newly built apartments in central London, up from around £250m a year earlier, according to Knight Frank. Asian property investors are lured by the a confluence of positive factors, a weak British pound, property prices down over 10% from a record high in 2007, and low interest rates.

Posted by drewster @ 12:07 PM 9 Comments

The Case For Higher Rates

SundayTimes Op ed by David Smith: THE CASE FOR HIGHER RATES

An interesting article and talks about capacity tighter than thought, inflation is not BoE sole consideration (as I have long suspected, BoE is pro growth more than pro stability) and the best bit: "The longer rates stay so low, the harder it is to shift them. If the Bank had made clear 0.5% was very temporary, everybody would have been prepared for the exit strategy. The risk is that the Bank leaves it too long, having given the impression ultra-low rates are permanent, any decision to hike could look like panic." And look at all these new mortgage borrowers who assume 2%ish rate is 'very affordable'.

Posted by easybetman @ 11:39 AM 9 Comments

Steve Keen's address in 2009

You tube: Getting to Grips with the Economy 2009

i know not news but it is Sunday after all, have a coffee sit back and relax: why the neo economists didnt see it coming... 2 parts he contributes as part 6 and 7. Part 7 imo is better but part 6 isnt bad either. i will post part 6 below:

Posted by techieman @ 11:30 AM 3 Comments

This is a proposition that is debated

Intelligence squared: Only capitalism can save the planet

One for you engineers and other such clever people. Although the whole debate is 1hour and 40mins, the 9 min video on Steve Keen's site is pretty good, in my view. then the first video. A few classic remarks but i let bloggers find them . The debate is defined: "Critics of capitalism have been crowing ever since the onset of the global financial crisis. Capitalism has been blamed for nearly every one of the earth’s ills – poverty, pestilence, exploitation, environmental degradation, the lot! Capitalism has been celebrated as the only cure for the earth’s ills – poverty, pestilence, exploitation, environmental degradation, the lot!" Steve is against the proposition.....

Posted by techieman @ 11:19 AM 2 Comments

No surprises here

Telegraph: Parents won't have wealth to pass on, report

Have you ever known a thief to voluntarily return stolen goods?

Posted by paul @ 10:29 AM 5 Comments

Wake up and smell the s**t.

Market Oracle: UK Government Stealth Debt Default Continues at Minimum Rate of 3% per Year

'...the coalition government is not going to cut the debt at ALL! they can't cut the debt because the last Labour government has ensured that the gap between that which the government spends and earns is unbridgeable, all that the governments can do is erode the purchasing power of all workers and savers in the economy through inflation'

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:17 AM 15 Comments

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Cutting budget deficit will lead to recession

The Telegraph: Investors: get set for the double dip recession ride

Professional investors have returned from their summer breaks in a less than buoyant mood. Many are approaching the fourth quarter with a heightened sense of caution, increasing their cash positions and buying shares that have defensive characteristics. Pessimistic views from Neil Woodford, one of the most listened-to fund managers in Britain. He said life was going to be very tough and that the chances of the country falling back into recession next year had increased. "Frankly, I've been surprised at how well house prices have held up. [But] with a lag, we are beginning to see some weakness as more supply is coming on to the market. I expect house prices to continue to fall . . . and that will put pressure on consumer confidence."

Posted by devo @ 10:50 PM 1 Comments

Cuts will be a disaster for the UK

The Telegraph: The Coalition is right about cuts, but it has some explaining to do

the Coalition has no mandate for cuts, and has not properly debated them. It is trying to frighten us with a "There is no alternative" line, when the plain alternative is to cut the deficit much more slowly and nurse the economy to recovery rather than slice it to ribbons.

Posted by devo @ 10:38 PM 13 Comments

UK housing as an asset

FT: UK Housing

UK Housing is a vital asset to the UK economy much like its transport infrastructure. It is high time it became affordable so it used primarily to house its hard-working residents rather be treated as a speculative asset and plaything for the super-rich of the world. A correction will be healthy for the long-term health of the economy, rather than the reverse.

Posted by mark moore @ 04:12 PM 0 Comments

Paper Houses

Posthumous blog: The Complete Banker

There needs to be a shift in the laissez-faire treatment of houses as speculative investments. There should be considered vital infrastracture for a cohesive society and a dynamic economy both by the residents and the government. This is a thought provoking article on subject not much discussed in the UK but considered common sense in many parts of the continent.

Posted by mark moore @ 02:56 PM 0 Comments

Calls for more houses to be built in villages

BBC News: British village life 'dying out' after pub closures

Village life in Britain is "dying out" because rural pubs are closing at a record rate, a report from the National Housing Federation has said. The federation, which represents England's housing associations, said key services were disappearing "at an alarming rate" and that affordable local housing was the key to saving traditional village life. And it said the closures reflected a declining demand for services in villages where local families had been priced out of the area by wealthy commuters, pensioners and second-home owners. Another factor was that there were too few new homes, it added. "Unless we build more affordable homes for local people, they will continue to be priced out of rural areas and services they support will vanish with them."

Posted by drewster @ 11:52 AM 9 Comments

The media spins back Rics: House Sales will Improve

Well I've never posted before so please go easy on me. But on my Google alerts this morning the tone of the articles were a lot more bullish than usual. So I thought that I would start with this one. I guess this is a good example of positive spin on bad news?

Posted by mystie010 @ 09:18 AM 30 Comments

Friday, September 17, 2010

More of this is required

Save our Savers: Scottish businessmen put money where their mouth is to support a small mutual bank with integrity

A group of Scotland’s leading businessmen including the publishers DC Thomson have come together to support the expansion of Airdrie Savings Bank, a small Lanarkshire based mutual, with an investment of £10million.

Posted by mr g @ 11:49 PM 2 Comments

Government only has knowledge of its own special class

Save our Savers: Special pleading for grafters

Government only has knowledge of its own special class –regarding aged MPs and Lords and Ladies as an example of what is possible for those working beyond the age of 65. It has little knowledge of how life is lived down in the swampy lowlands of Britain.

Posted by mr g @ 11:46 PM 0 Comments

Rents rise: good? - Future price drops: good

BBC NEWS: Rents 'at highest for two years' as landlords sell up

Average rents in the UK have reached their highest level for two years as landlords sell up, a survey suggests. Increased demand from tenants reluctant to buy in the current economic climate has also added to the upward pressure on prices, LSL Property Services said. The group said that average rents had risen for seven consecutive months, increasing by 1.4% in August.

Posted by dev @ 11:18 PM 0 Comments

Inflation vs deflation, the debate continues

Mish's: Myths About "What's Economically Important"

Day in and day out I hear it from readers who insist that we are not in deflation and will not be in deflation because prices are rising and continue to rise. Still others tell me it is illogical for a deflationist to like gold. When I counter with a discussion about credit conditions I tend to get a blank stare or a comment like "I do not care about credit conditions. I own my home. What I care about are rising prices of food and energy." When I counter with falling asset prices and zero percent interest rates on savings accounts I am likely to get as statement like "Who cares, I rent?", or perhaps "The poor have no assets or savings, all they care about is food prices."

Posted by drewster @ 08:20 PM 1 Comments

"Key retirements survey reveals over-65's have not been hit by downturn"

FT: Retired homeowners gain in fragile market

Retired homeowners have total property wealth owned outright of up to £775bn, according to new research. Findings in the Key Retirement Solutions’ Pensioner Property Equity Index showed that homeowners over 65 gained a collective £7.94bn in the past three months despite the fragile housing market.The biggest winners were retired homeowners in Scotland who gained around £12,353 on average while pensioners in the south west were £3713 better off. The analysis also revealed that there were also losers among retired homeowners in the north of England. Pensioners in the northeast lost an average £5484 and those in the northwest suffered a £1643 drop.The 20-page report also revealed that nearly a third of property equity is owned by pensioners in London and the southeast of England.

Posted by jack c @ 05:59 PM 4 Comments

Governments can only delay the inevitable...

Associated Press: US homes lost to foreclosure up 25 pct on year

Lenders took back more homes in August than in any month since the start of the U.S. mortgage crisis.The increase in home repossessions came even as the number of properties entering the foreclosure process slowed for the seventh month in a row, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday. In all, banks repossessed 95,364 properties last month, up 3 percent from July and an increase of 25 percent from August 2009, RealtyTrac said. August makes the ninth month in a row that the pace of homes lost to foreclosure has increased on an annual basis. The previous high was in May.

Posted by rob @ 02:00 PM 0 Comments

Ask Miles

Rightmove: Ask Miles

"Submit your property questions to our resident expert Miles Shipside and be a part of the biggest property Q&A session this year!" This made me laugh so much I nearly burst.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:50 PM 6 Comments

...........nothing to say.............

Bloomberg: U.S. Consumer Prices Rose 0.3% in August

The cost of living in the U.S. climbed in August for a second month as energy and food prices increased, while other goods and services showed little change.

Posted by mark @ 01:46 PM 1 Comments

Volumes Down

Essential Auction News: Monthly News Update

Scroll all the way down for a bit more commentary at the bottom. I don't understand the failure to sell unless the sellers have put unreasonable reserve prices on their lots. Surely the whole point of an auction is to find a fair price for an item, and if 40% don't sell, the reserve is too high. Needless to say there are more repossessions now than in 2007, so why doesn't this feed in to volumes at auction?

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 01:34 PM 6 Comments

Cool, just going out to buy some rat poison

Yahoo / telegraph: Binmen threaten to strike, raising spectre of another Winter of Discontent

Millions of homeowners across the UK could have their bin and recycling collections disrupted after unions threatened to ballot bin workers over strike action. The GMB union raised the prospect of the first national bin strike since the Winter of Discontent in 1978/79, when uncollected sacks of rubbish piled up in streets.

Posted by mark @ 12:05 PM 7 Comments

"heavy-duty credit easing"

Telegraph: Bank of England may shift to 'heavy-duty credit easing', says rate setter Adam Posen

'The Bank of England might aim to cut borrowing costs in specific areas of the economy should its buying of government bonds prove ineffective in stimulating economic growth, Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen said.'

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:33 AM 53 Comments

Now I'm confused

Basildon Recorder: Ruling Conservatives vote to sell off Basildon playing fields for housing

RESIDENTS were disgusted after ruling Tory councillors voted to sell-off playing fields across Basildon. More than 170 residents watched a heated emergency full council meeting at the Towngate Theatre, St Martins Square. Councillors debated a motion put forward by the opposition Labour group, which called on the ruling Tory administration to drop plans to sell playing fields off Pound Lane, Laindon, Kent View Road, Vange, and Felmores, Pitsea to fund the new £38 million Sporting Village, in Gloucester Park, Basildon. The Conservatives made the most of their overwhelming majority to ensure Labour lost the vote, which means the land sale will in all likeliehood go ahead.

Posted by drewster @ 11:32 AM 1 Comments

One to watch

Build: Iain Duncan Smith To Address Federation Housing Conference

Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith will make a major speech on welfare reform at the National Housing Federation's annual conference in Birmingham next week, it was confirmed today. Mr Duncan Smith, who has proposed radical changes to the housing benefit system, will address hundreds of staff from across the affordable housing sector at the Federation’s conference, at the Birmingham ICC on Thursday 23 September. Housing Minister Grant Shapps, Channel 4 News anchor Jon Snow and former chief secretary to the Treasury Michael Portillo are among the other high profile speakers who will address the three-day conference, between Wednesday-Friday, 22-24 September.

Posted by drewster @ 11:28 AM 0 Comments


Liverpool daily post: 70 Liverpool Council managers leave and 700 workers offered redundancy in cash-saving programme

MORE than 70 managers have joined the exodus from Liverpool council and now 700 more employees have been offered redundancy, under a huge cash saving programme. All managers earning more than £40,000 were offered voluntary redundancy earlier in the summer. The cull has seen some of the most senior officials leave in a move that has already saved £4m. Now 700 members of staff have been emailed with an invitation to apply for the scheme that has offered a minimum of 12 weeks’ pay, irrespective of time served and a lump sum worth up to 40 weeks’ pay.

Posted by mark @ 10:46 AM 7 Comments

Any ideas on the effect on inflation in the UK from this?

Bloomberg: China Is Set to Lose 2% of GDP Cleaning Up Decades of Pollution

Fujian-based Zijin Mining Group Co., China’s largest gold producer, was forced to shut a copper plant and limit production at a gold mine in eastern China’s Fujian province after acid- laced waste spilled into a local river, killing enough fish to feed 72,000 people for a year.

Posted by mark @ 10:38 AM 6 Comments

More Vested Interest Fun

Industry Today: Fears that bad mortgage debt could rise this autumn

The number of house repossessions continues to fall, according to latest figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) - but this could just be a smokescreen, warns national debt advisor Payplan. CML's forecast for 2010 repossessions has been revised from 53,000 to 39,000 while mortgage arrears in the first half of the year dropped by 5%. But these positive figures could be painting a false picture and the autumn could see a return to bad debt mortgage, says John Fairhurst, managing director at free debt advice provider Payplan. "Low interest rates have driven down mortgage repayments but this bubble will burst and the prospect of higher interest rates is inevitable. Combine this with a rise in both the cost of living and unemployment and it could be a rocky time ahead."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:35 AM 2 Comments

What's happening to house prices?

MoneyWeek: What's happening to house prices?

Of the seven major house price indices, four claim house prices are on the up and three say prices are dropping. It's all rather confusing. So what's really happening to house prices?

Posted by damien @ 10:17 AM 8 Comments

Where's our bailout?

Guardian: Rents rise as supply and demand favours landlords

Tenants are facing steep increases in rents as landlords push prices back to levels not seen since the start of the economic slowdown, according to the LSL monthly index of buy-to-let rents. The worst increases are in the south-east where, according to LSL, in just one month alone landlords have pushed up rents by 2.8% – far outstripping wages. London also saw a 2% rise during August, with the average charged now standing at £961 a month. Over the year, the Yorkshire and Humberside region has suffered the biggest annual rise, up by 5.4% to an average of £528.

Posted by little professor @ 09:01 AM 31 Comments

Collapse in high street sales for August

The Telegraph: Recovery hopes falter as retail sales disappoint

Britain's recovery hopes have suffered a sharp setback after surprisingly weak retail sales figures provided damning evidence that consumers are tightening their belts ahead of the Government's austerity measures. A collapse in high street sales for August and stark warnings from some of the nation's leading retailers sparked fresh talk of a double-dip recession. "The unexpected fall is a nasty shock and deals a significant blow to growth hopes," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight. "It will likely fuel fears of a double-dip, given the importance of consumer spending to the economy."

Posted by devo @ 06:37 AM 2 Comments

Not what the markets want to hear

The Telegraph: The Coalition is spending even more than tax-and-waste Labour

Given the scale of opposition to the Chancellor's surgery, even though he has not yet released the full details, a curious bystander might be forgiven for thinking that many billions are going to disappear from the bottom line of state expenditure. Like one of Todd's victims, the final bill for taxpayers is about to be dismembered in a grisly fashion. This is what happens when the state is shrunk, right? Er, not quite. In fact, not at all. In terms of cash flowing out of the Treasury's coffers, there is no evidence of cutting back. Total government outlay is set to go up this year, next year and every year thereafter to 2014-15.

Posted by devo @ 06:30 AM 3 Comments

The easy money party is soon going to be over

Telegraph: Property market: double jeopardy for home owners

Home owners have been given a stark reminder of the precariousness of the housing market with a double warning. Firstly, a leading economist said that house prices could fall 10pc within the next year or so, and secondly the head of the British Bankers' Association warned that new banking rules could trigger a second credit crunch, making mortgages harder to come by.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:08 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, September 16, 2010

A view from across the pond

WSJ: The Source: What Good Are Lower U.K. House Prices if Banks Won’t Lend?

U.K. house prices–among the top topics for British dinner table chat as well as a nice little earner for those with the spare capital–are falling, and look set to continue in that vein for the remainder of this year, and possibly beyond.

Posted by dill @ 08:02 PM 4 Comments

Can't build houses because roads would clog up, can't build roads because green

Oxford Mail: Housing ‘would compound traffic woes’

A traffic expert employed by Oxford City Council says the authority’s plans for thousands of new homes would compound Oxford’s congestion. Even with no development at all, city traffic would increase 51% by 2026. He added: “The core strategy, in my view, does not provide demonstrable evidence that the development proposed can be achieved without substantially worsening conditions.” The inquiry heard Government investment in Oxford’s road network was now in doubt due to public spending cuts.

Posted by drewster @ 08:01 PM 9 Comments

All across the country, developments are grinding to a halt

Bournemouth Echo: Housing plan for Talbot Village brought to halt

Legal challenges surround Talbot Village Trust’s proposal for 450 student units and 378 new homes on farmland off Wallisdown Road. Bournemouth council, Natural England and Conor Burns, MP for Bournemouth West, have all requested Secretary of State Eric Pickles to call in the application and several others, including Dorset Wildlife Trust and the RSPB, have made representations. “If this plan goes through it’s a coach and horses through all our other areas,” said Cllr Ron Whittaker. Objectors concerns range from traffic and the impact on the local environment to damage to heathland and concerns for wildlife.

Posted by drewster @ 07:57 PM 4 Comments

The Fox and the Grapes

Press Association: Young 'putting house plans on hold'

A record number of Britons want to be homeowners in the long-term but many younger people are putting immediate plans to buy on hold, a survey indicated. Around 85% of people said they hoped to be living in their own property 10 years from now, the highest level since the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) first started carrying out the research in 1975. But there has been a dip in the proportion of people who hope to be living in their own property in two years' time, with only 76% wanting to do so, compared with 78% three years earlier. The CML said the low number of young people who aspired to home-ownership in the immediate future was likely to be due to lifestyle choices, with them favouring flexibility and the ability to relocate easily in the short-term.

Posted by drewster @ 07:47 PM 4 Comments

And the lion shall lay down with the lamb?

Lancashire Telegraph: Drive to improve Chorley's rented property introduced

PRIVATE landlords wanting to build their reputation and help to improve property standards in Chorley are being urged to take part in a new scheme. Chorley Council is joining forces with the National Landlords Association to offer a ‘Landlord Accreditation’.

Posted by drewster @ 07:44 PM 0 Comments

As per title really

Guardian: Nick Clegg defends radical benefits cuts

518 comments; those champagne socialists are positively foaming at the mouth. Lots of back-slapping all round from the Upper Street chattering-classes.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 01:59 PM 20 Comments

Return of the killer Zombies!!!!

Bloomberg: Zombie Banks Have Us Right Where They Want Us

How long will it take before we see some semblance of robust free-market capitalism return, where the value of an asset is based on what bona fide market participants will pay for it, the cost to borrow money is based on a company’s fundamental financial strength rather than its ability to access a government safety net, and corporations are free to fail no matter what their size?

Posted by mark @ 01:06 PM 5 Comments

New buyers asked to pay for their house....

Northampton Chronicle and Echo: New buyers 'may need 20% deposit'

Usual rubbish implying that the banks should lend more money to people to buy over inflated house prices. No mention of dropping price and the ludicrous housing market we live with. This article just says to prices still 30% over-valued and are about to drop off a cliff....

Posted by thecountofnowhere @ 12:03 PM 0 Comments

A bank with brains!

Bloomberg: India Raises Interest Rates a Fifth Time to Contain Inflation

The Reserve Bank of India increased interest rates for the fifth time this year and said its actions have brought the “monetary situation close to normal.” RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao boosted the repurchase rate to 6 percent from 5.75 percent, and the reverse repurchase rate a half point to 5 percent, the bank said in Mumbai today. “The role of normalization as a motivation for further actions is likely to be less important,” the statement said.

Posted by mark @ 11:54 AM 3 Comments

Renting C*** from the LocalAuthority

BBC News: One in four council homes fails 'Decent Homes Standard'

One in four London council homes is cold, run-down or outdated, government figures seen by BBC London show. Almost 100,000 local authority dwellings have not reached the government's Decent Homes Standard.

Posted by tudorian @ 11:31 AM 3 Comments

The Mail is silent about this method of running up public debt

Counterpunch: Obama's Thatcherite gift to the banks

Transport projects can pay for themselves by a windfall-gains tax enabling governments to recapture the higher rent-of-location and site value along the right-of-way. Instead transportation projects make land speculators, the construction industry and their bankers very rich at public expense. The Jubilee Line extension to the financial district cost £3.5 billion but increased property values by around £13 billion along the route. It could have been financed by bonds secured by a windfall tax on site-value gains, thus boosting the economy by making it cheaper for people to get to work and back and giving them more to spend, but it didn't. US transport schemes similarly gouge rent from the real economy, transfer it to Wall St./property speculators and run up public debt to the banks.

Posted by icarus @ 11:18 AM 5 Comments

You couldnt make it up

Dailymail: Owner lay dead on the couch as estate agent showed buyers around her home

An estate agent showed prospective buyers around an £800,000 house while the owner lay dead on her sofa, an inquest heard yesterday. The agent, Samuel Allfort, said he had assumed the 55-year-old woman was sleeping and continued with the pre-arranged viewing. The Marsh & Parsons employee even left the living room to view last in case she awoke in time to meet the buyers.

Posted by mark @ 10:35 AM 20 Comments

All yours for debate

Yahoo / telegraph: Property market: double jeopardy for home owners

Home owners have been given a stark reminder of the precariousness of the housing market with a double warning. Firstly, a leading economist said that house prices could fall 10pc within the next year or so, and secondly the head of the British Bankers' Association warned that new banking rules could trigger a second credit crunch, making mortgages harder to come by.

Posted by mark @ 10:21 AM 1 Comments

U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Post First Drop Since January

Bloomberg: U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Post First Drop Since January

U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell in August, the first decline since January, led by a drop in sales at book shops, sporting-goods stores and pharmacies. There's that word "unexpected" many many unexepected things happening these days!

Posted by steaky @ 10:17 AM 0 Comments

Record Rise In People Getting New Jobs

Sky: Record Rise In People Getting New Jobs

Here's one on employment for you Mark. Oh, sorry, I forgot, you only salivate over job losses.

Posted by smugdog @ 08:04 AM 8 Comments

US housing market still crashing

ArabianMoney: US housing disaster continues as bank seizures jump 25%

The US housing crash that started with subprime mortgage lending and caused the global financial crisis two years ago is getting worse rather than better with bank seizures up by 25 per cent in August and 95,364 families losing their homes, reported Realty Trac today. But Professor Karl Case of the Case/Schiller housing index thinks prices may hit bottom in six months' time.

Posted by arabianmoney @ 06:50 AM 1 Comments

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

The currency war

Daily Telegraph: Bank of Japan riles US with yen move

The race to the bottom Japan has launched a huge intervention in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 2004 to stem the rise of the yen and head off a deflation spiral, prompting harsh protests from top US Democrats on Capitol Hill.

Posted by tom101 @ 10:10 PM 5 Comments

Fear & uncertainty stalk the land, like two giant stalking things

Press Association: Landlords fear housing benefit cuts

Nine out of 10 landlords would be less likely to rent their properties to tenants receiving housing benefit if proposed cuts are introduced, a survey has found. The Government plans to cap the local housing allowance (LHA) at 30% of average local rents, with future increases linked to the Consumer Price Index, rather than the Retail Price Index which tends to be higher. But 90% of landlords questioned by the National Landlords Association (NLA) said they would be less likely to take on tenants receiving the benefit if the cap went ahead. Nearly half of those questioned also said they could not afford to reduce the rents they charged in line with the cuts in order to keep existing LHA tenants. A further two-thirds of landlords said they were unsure what impact the reforms would have.

Posted by drewster @ 08:45 PM 18 Comments

Rents on the up?

MortageStrategy: Landlords struggle to meet demand for rental property

The future looks bright for the buy-to-let sector as demand rises but there is a sting in the tail. The number of new tenants signing up for rental property hit a new high in Q2 according to Countrywide. And a record 20,000 new entrants were welcomed to the rental market in July. This increased demand is in stark contrast to the number of rental properties coming to the market. Excess demand has pushed up average rents, with four-bedroom family homes seeing the greatest price rise of 4% compared with Q1 to reach £1,090 per calendar month. But the bad news is that landlords are struggling to find the financing to take advantage of increasing tenant demand and rising rents.

Posted by drewster @ 08:42 PM 12 Comments

Regional newspapers cotton on

Oxford Times: Without new housing, firms will fail, it is claimed

A LEADING Wallingford businessman says hundreds of houses must be built in the town — or firms will go bust and young people will leave. In a broadside to local politicians and pressure groups opposing development in the town, David Bosley, 39, who last year set up the Wallingford Enterprise Centre, said opponents of the new housing developments risked “loving Wallingford to death”. He said he was speaking out because shopkeepers were scared to voice their fears in case it alienated customers. He said: “Development is the lifeblood of a town — it brings money, jobs, commerce, facilities, infrastructure and people. It is extremely irresponsible to be so resistant to this great opportunity.”

Posted by drewster @ 08:40 PM 6 Comments

Big bet, wonder which bookkeeper took that lol

Bloomberg: Pimco Makes $8.1 Billion Bet Against `Lost Decade' of Deflation

Bill Gross’s Pacific Investment Management Co. made an $8.1 billion wager that the U.S. won’t suffer a decade of deflation like the one that crippled Japan starting in the 1990s.

Posted by mark @ 02:21 PM 10 Comments

States from California to Illinois have been in deep crisis since the recession began

CNN Money: Bankrupt, USA: Why our cities aren't too big to fail

Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers for instance -- are no longer with us, while many of the major liquidity providers there, such as single strategy municipal hedge funds, "collapsed or were shut down." Nor is a wave of defaults off the table just because they have not occurred in recent decades. Before the housing downturn, real-estate bulls saw housing prices laddering to the sky and often noted that real-estate prices had never declined nationwide -- until they finally did.

Posted by mark @ 01:19 PM 1 Comments

Council chief Mohammed Mehmet described the situation as “extremely challenging.”

North wales daily post: Services under threat as North Wales councils face £130m cuts

Across the region authorities are facing tough financial decisions. Flintshire’s revenue shortfall over the next three years is £29m, of which £10m must be found in 2011-2012. Wrexham is expecting cuts of £30m over three years. In Conwy the three-year figure is £21.8m, which is 12% of the council’s base budget Ynys Môn must find savings of £10m. Earlier this year Gwynedd Council announced savings of £16m were needed between this year and 2012-2013. But Corporate Director Dilwyn Williams said yesterday: “Our preliminary analysis of the UK Government’s recent emergency budget suggests that we may need to deliver up to £35m of further savings between 2011-2012 and 2014-2015.”

Posted by mark @ 12:51 PM 21 Comments

One for Tyrell Corporation...

This Is Devon: SW house prices fall for the second month in a row

HOUSE prices dropped for the second consecutive month in the South West but are leading to a rise in sales expectations, according to a new report. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said 26 per cent more West Country chartered surveyors reported prices falling during August, compared to 32 per cent nationally — the biggest negative reading since May 2009. The RICS UK Housing Market survey said the downward trend in prices continued to be driven by a combination of increased supply and a moderation in demand from buyers...

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:43 PM 12 Comments

He described the current deficit as unsustainable

Yahoo / reuters: Bank of England governor Mervyn King warns unions accept cuts or 'fail your children'

Market reaction to rising sovereign debt can turn quickly from benign to malign, as we saw in the euro area earlier this year. It is not sensible to risk a damaging rise in long-term interest rates that would make investment and the cost of mortgages more expensive, Mr King said. The costs of this crisis will be with us for a generation.

Posted by mark @ 12:24 PM 17 Comments

Inflation has been above the central bank's two percent target since December 2009

Yahoo / reuters: Bank's Miles says high inflation is a worry

"From my point of view on the MPC , I am particularly concerned about inflationary pressures, since it is our job to keep the rate close to the 2 percent target and it is uncomfortably above that at present."," Miles said, in quotes published in the East Anglian Daily Times.

Posted by mark @ 09:24 AM 20 Comments

Oh, the irony...

Telegraph: Myth of the underpaid public sector worker

As per title really. Arguably, once the public sector cuts really bite - assuming that the lowest paid will be disproportionately effected - we may see this average skewed further upwards.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 09:04 AM 1 Comments


Financialexpress: Rising prices a worry, says Pranab

Ahead of monetary review by RBI next week, the government expressed concern over rising food prices and advised the central bank to take 'whatever' measures required to bring them down while keeping options open on the fiscal front. "I am worried," Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on rise in food prices at the AGM of the Calcutta Chamber of Commerce. Mukherjee said,"I have suggested to the RBI to take whatever monetary measures needed to keep prices down."

Posted by mark @ 08:51 AM 3 Comments

A theme is developing here.

The Telegraph: IMF fears 'social explosion' from world jobs crisis

America and Europe face the worst jobs crisis since the 1930s and risk "an explosion of social unrest" unless they tread carefully, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Posted by devo @ 06:28 AM 15 Comments

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

See 1st post for the embeded video

Max K and Steve Keen: Keiser Report №77: Global Debt Collapse

starts with Ireland and Anglo Bank's CDS'. its all pretty good but the interview with Steve Keen is interesting - starts at around 11 mins. Ben's attempt to fight deflation and whats wrong with his attempt @ 20:10. mentions Michael Hudson's views re debt repayment @ 21:00. The solution? 24 mins in .... Steve is the author of Debunking economics - a very good imo - book but not an easy read.

Posted by techieman @ 11:02 PM 8 Comments

I would never have guessed this strategy in a million years

Guardian: Real IRA says it will target UK bankers

Can't quite figure this one out but the article contains the following quote; "Let's not forget that the bankers are the next-door neighbours of the politicians. Most people can see the picture: the bankers grease the politicians' palms, the politicians bail out the bankers with public funds, the bankers pay themselves fat bonuses and loan the money back to the public with interest. It's essentially a crime spree that benefits a social elite at the expense of many millions of victims."

Posted by enuii @ 09:29 PM 6 Comments

I would recommend you panic.

Business Insider: How Hyperinflation Will Happen In America

The first of the asset managers or TBTF banks who are out of Treasuries will look for a place to park their cash—obviously. Where will all this ready cash go? Commodities. By the end of that terrible day, commodites of all stripes—precious and industrial metals, oil, foodstuffs—will shoot the moon. But it will not be because ordinary citizens have lost faith in the dollar (that will happen in the days and weeks ahead)—it will happen because once Treasuries are not the sure store of value, where are all those money managers supposed to stick all these dollars?

Posted by devo @ 08:39 PM 11 Comments

Ultimately everybody loses from high house prices

Telegraph: Who gets hurt by high house prices? All of us

"Ultimately everybody loses from high house prices. Here’s six different ways people lose out ... What is the government going to do about it? We need more housing. Ministers are beavering away on ways to reform the system. But so far they have been shy about setting out their ultimate goals, and we don’t know how radical they are going to be. They should shout it from the rooftops: high housing costs have hurt us all, and it’s time to put a stop to them." This article says the main cause for high housing costs is the constriction of supply. It fails to mention the role of the quantity and price of lending.

Posted by wanderinman @ 07:13 PM 21 Comments

The quarterly inflation reports are just propaganda aimed at psychologically managing the population

Market oracle: UK CPI Inflation Stuck at 3.1% Against Bank of England's Forecast for 1.6%

According to the Bank of England's forecast for UK inflation as of Feb 2010, CPI inflation by August should have fallen to about 1.6%, instead it is at 3.1% (see graph), with the forecast for inflation to fall to below 1% by the end of 2010 and magically always converge towards 2% in 2 years time which fails to occur 96% of the time.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:06 PM 1 Comments

Repossessed man goes nuts

Telegraph: Repossessed man goes nuts

how much can someone take?......sleepeing on the streets,repossessed,failed sale???????yes there is some responsibility but why take him to court was goodwin or hornby taken anywhere near a some point,the ants are gonna go completely nuts

Posted by taffee @ 06:29 PM 22 Comments

"house prices could slide by as much as 30% between now and 2013"

Citywire: Woodford says chances of a UK double dip are rising

Invesco Perpetual's star fund manager Neil Woodford says the chances of the UK slipping back into recession are on the rise. Due to lingering economic uncertainty the group's head of investment believes a double dip scenario is looking more and more likely and the fund manager has even forecast a dramatic slump in residential house prices over the next three years.

Posted by jack c @ 03:21 PM 12 Comments

Here Comes the Second Drop Weight of Home Supply Forces Drop

The mix-adjusted average Asking Price for homes on the market in England and Wales dropped 0.5% over the last month. Monthly asking prices fell in 8 out of 9 English regions, Wales and Scotland. Total number of UK properties for sale has increased 15% since September 2009. The number of properties reduced in price during August fell back slightly to 83,000 from a 19-month high of 92,000 during July. Annual change in asking prices: –0.1%. 6-month change in asking prices: -0.1%

Posted by tinecu @ 01:41 PM 0 Comments

A new twist on the right-to-buy argument

Guardian: London housing crisis: the disappearance of homes for social rent

Interesting blog, I had always bought into the argument (much lauded on the HPC forum) that RTB was the main driver for the lack of social housing stock; Hill argues that Thatcher simply set the precedent for New Labour, who carried the mantle with aplomb: "The main driver of this trend has, of course, been the right-to-buy policy introduced by Margaret Thatcher. Yet in the case of many boroughs where very large falls have occurred the rate was greater between 1996 and 2006 when, except for the first year and part of 1997, Labour was in power nationally than in the preceding ten under Conservative the context of London's looming housing calamity, the part that these numbers reveal seems not to reflect well on the Blair-Brown years."

Posted by sibley's love child @ 12:36 PM 8 Comments

The curators of doubt and misery

Grauniad: The end of the housing ladder

The last helicopter is leaving Saigon, and lots of people who thought there was such a thing as a housing "ladder" – a ladder that always goes up, rather than toppling down a ravine while their legs pump uselessly, Wile E Coyote-style – are starting to think there won't be room inside for everyone.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 12:28 PM 5 Comments

Estate Agents Need Price Drop

RICS: August Housing Market Survey

Look at your local agents comments Christopher Shallice FRICS FAAV, Hix & Son, Holbeach, Lincolnshire, 01406 422 777 - Many properties have been brought to the market since the demise of HIPs, a considerable number of which are not realistically priced with little chance of selling. It is very obvious that only properties which are competitively priced are selling.

Posted by wdbeast @ 10:12 AM 25 Comments

House price predicted to fall

Money Avenue: House Price Falls Ahead, Suggests Barometer Index

RICS report suggests that house prices will continue to fall. Low supply and demand affect pricing.

Posted by kkat @ 10:06 AM 0 Comments

‘Unchanged’ means temporary is becoming permanent

BBC: UK inflation unchanged in August

The unexpectedly high rate was boosted by strong rises in airfare, clothing and food prices. Fuel prices fell. ------------------------------------------- 'Unexpected' again from the clowns who claim to know what they are doing.

Posted by estrader @ 09:58 AM 37 Comments

House Prices Expected To Tumble House Prices Expected To Tumble – New Survey Predicts

“Looking forward, our price indicators are telling a mixed story which is consistent with the uncertainty hanging over the economy, the low level of interest rates and the lack of new house building.”

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:55 AM 0 Comments wonder financial system is in ruins

Greg Pytel: Deos Bob Diamond (new CEO of Barclays) understand banking?

Another interesting post. But more interesting is the discussion below the article which shows, by example, a dividing line between high street banking and casino banking.

Posted by ant @ 08:35 AM 2 Comments

The banks are wary of the property market

Independent: House prices slide as banks reject first-time buyers

'First-time buyers were on average being asked for deposits of 24 per cent in July, up from 21 per cent in April and May. Overall, the CML said that mortgage volumes "still represent a very weak market". The situation last week prompted Steve Morgan, the chairman of housebuilder Redrow, to call on the Government to establish an insurance indemnity scheme to support first-time buyers, arguing that a lack of home loans was hampering the sector.'

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:33 AM 6 Comments

Good news everyone - housing set to get cheaper

BBC: Surveyors expect property values to fall

The BBC still tries to slip in an unsubstantiated bit of vested interest speculation towards the end of the article but the tone is unmistakeably muted meaning only one thing - bad news for aspirationally priced property owners. Good effort BBC - the intensity of your bias has moved from egregious to appalling.

Posted by paul @ 08:24 AM 11 Comments

Don't lower our house prices by lowering the tone!

The Guardian: Is Lymington the snootiest town in Britain?

"Lymington is a poor man's Sandbanks," says Gregg Woodford, referring to the multimillionaire strip in Poole. "Not so many Bentley's, but plenty of holiday homes here." He and other fishermen suspect opposition to Wetherspoon's was hatched in the yachting club. Lymington is well-stocked with wealthy retirees drawn to the town for its chandleries, excellent harbour and other like-minded souls in deck shoes and blazers. "They didn't want the Argos because they thought it would lower the tone, but you have to move with the times. A lot of people can't afford to go out for a meal these days," says Woodford. He and colleagues on the quay say a Wetherspoon's would be as much a place to eat as drink. More unhappy boomers desperately hanging on to their 'wealth', ruining it for younger generations

Posted by happyrenting @ 08:12 AM 0 Comments

Bear food....yum yum

The Telegraph: Home owners must reduce prices by 10pc to sell properties

Home owners must accept offers of 10 per cent below the asking price to sell their properties, warn estate agents who are the gloomiest they have been about the housing market for 18 months.

Posted by dr pineapples @ 07:42 AM 0 Comments

"Demolition Coalition" has declared war on working people.

The Telegraph: Cuts will bring civil unrest, says police leader

Britain faces widespread civil unrest, strikes and more crime as a result of cuts in public spending.

Posted by devo @ 06:50 AM 23 Comments

RICS -32% Surveyors saw house prices fall in Aug vs -8% Jul

Press Association: House prices drop for second month

House prices fell for the second month in a row during August as the number of homes on the market continued to increase, research has indicated. Around 32% more chartered surveyors reported price falls during the month than those who saw rises, the highest number since May 2009, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf said: "The latest set of results suggest prices in many parts of the country may be slipping but this does appear to be encouraging hopes amongst surveyors that sales levels could begin to pick up as a result.

Posted by little professor @ 12:52 AM 2 Comments

One for Uncle Tom

Evening Standard: ‘Nimby’ planning rules threaten new homes

"The planning director of one of the country's biggest housebuilders, speaking on condition of anonymity because of heightened political tensions over the issue, predicted fewer than 100,000 new homes would go up in 2010, 2011 and 2012. That would be almost half of the amount built in 2006 and well below the Labour Government's never-reached annual target of 240,000." In plain English, 100,000 = additions to housing stock of about 0.4% per year, i.e. not even enough to keep pace with population growth due to increasing life expectancy.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:16 AM 2 Comments

Monday, September 13, 2010

Why would you, sounds like more trouble than it's worth

Telegraph: Property in France: buying a holiday home in Provence

I thought Provence was so yesterday, Brits buying overpriced property and hated by the locals, bit like Londoners in Cornwall but in France.

Posted by enuii @ 11:15 PM 4 Comments

Prime central locations in the capital city can't fall.... right?

FT: Dublin's des res feels the heat of recession

Dublin’s affluent Ballsbridge neighbourhood, where the country’s business and professional elite live, has long been home to the the most expensive properties in Ireland. Now, after several years of severe economic decline, the market on the tree-lined avenues dubbed the “embassy belt” – US, British and French missions are all nearby – is arguably the most depressed in any of the advanced economies. Properties that were valued at €10m-€13m at the height of the boom have fallen back to 2002 prices of between €4m-€5m. Average Irish house prices have not fared quite so badly. They have fallen by about 35pc since 2006. [Now try re-reading that as "London's affluent Knightsbridge/Mayfair neighbourhood..." and ask yourself, is London really immune?]

Posted by drewster @ 07:24 PM 1 Comments

Quick, Buy now while rates are low! (says the Mail)

Daily Mail: Property finance: Rock-bottom deals, but sky-high set-up fees

A late summer sale has broken out in the mortgage market with a few lenders offering fixes and trackers at less than three per cent. The rock-bottom fixes are expected to be popular after the apocalyptic prediction from think-tank Policy Exchange that interest rates would soar to eight per cent by 2012.

Posted by drewster @ 07:17 PM 3 Comments

First-time buyers need largest deposits since records began

Telegraph: First-time buyers hit new low amid house price fears

Mortgages granted to first-time buyers dropped to 19,400 from 19,700 in June and 20,100 a year earlier, the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported. Lending to FTBs in the three months to July rose by 8pc compared with the same period a year earlier, the slowest growth in almost a year. The average FTB deposit size was 24pc of the cost of a property, the same as in June but higher than the 21pc deposit required in the two months before that. The size of deposits compared with home value remains close to its largest since records began in 1979. With the Bank of England’s policy rate at a record low, interest rate costs are relatively subdued. First-time buyers’ interest takes up 13pc of income – the lowest since 2004. "The mortgage market remains dominated by the cash-rich."

Posted by drewster @ 07:12 PM 1 Comments

Money for the people?

Conservativehome: Douglas Carswell leads the way on bank reform

On Wednesday, immediately after Prime Minister's Questions, Douglas Carswell MP will be introducing a moderate and conservative ten-minute rule bill which would introduce sound property rights and contract to monetary deposits. It is potentially of profound importance.

Posted by numptyfish. @ 01:55 PM 4 Comments

Storm in a teacup

The Independent: Review launched into Commonwealth Development Corporation Expenses

Government review of CDC expenses 'launched'. Diverts attention from the real issue. This is the appalling circumstances of the privatisation of the CDC's international development arm '(Actis') under Blair's watch. An 'independent board' consisting of CDC managers (then govt employees) approved the privatisation and those same managers became instant millionaires, not least through selling off CDC investments taxed at low CGT rates. McKinsey devised a bonus scheme for the directors of Actis based not on 'development' but on attracting capital and returns on investment. Consequently it invests less in agriculture and more in mobile phones and shopping centres which (a) could attract private money anyway and (b) strips out third-world wealth and diverts it to multinationals' bottom lines.

Posted by icarus @ 01:49 PM 5 Comments

No more mo-viagra-ney

Yahoo / reuters: IMF urges stimulus to help "dire" job market

The leader of the International Labour Organisation called on governments to extend measures to foster a still "fragile" global economic recovery and job creation. But Iain Duncan Smith, Britain's Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, disagreed, telling Reuters: "We're at the stage where everyone is throwing out a lot of stimulus, but to lesser and lesser effect." "We think it's time to start pulling that back," he said. "If it goes on, we will start to squeeze out the private economy so it won't have room to grow."

Posted by mark @ 01:29 PM 2 Comments

Angela Knight (Chief Exec of BBA) claims "the cheap money era is over.”

Mortgagestrategy: Cheap money era is over, warns BBA

The British Bankers’ Association has warned that the extra capital requirements being placed on banks will lead to the end of the cheap money era and increase mortgage costs.The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has agreed that banks will require a minimum core Tier 1 capital ratio of 7%, up from the current 2%. Under the Basel III rules banks will have to increase their core Tier 1 capital rartio to 4.5% by 2015...“All the changes are good from a stability perspective but add billions to the fixed operating cost of a bank. “The consequence is that inevitably the cost of credit - the price the borrower pays for money - will rise. The cheap money era is over.”

Posted by jack c @ 01:24 PM 1 Comments

FTBs are biding their time

Walletpop: Mortgage bills halve, but still no first time buyers

There are all sorts of reasons why they should have been tempted in. So, for example, 94% of first-time property purchases are now exempt from stamp duty. We can't even blame the mortgage market, as the most recent figures have shown lending is rising again, only 3% of first-time buyers say a lack of suitable mortgage products has prevented them buying a home and eight out of ten first-time buyer mortgages are approved. The answer remains a simple one - according to Halifax - houses are still too darn expensive.

Posted by mnorman @ 12:58 PM 0 Comments

Problems with the Basel 3 agreement

BBC Website: Why have we left bank reform to technocrats

This article looks at the problems with the recent Basel 3 accord. this is important because it is setting out the bank capital rules which have a lot of implications for the banks and hence our economy goping forward. I notice that the banks are already saying that they will raise the price of credit to compensate. As ever there are many good comments including ones which wonder if the banking sector will hit trouble again before these rules come into operation in 2019.

Posted by francesca25 @ 12:56 PM 1 Comments


Yahoo/telegraph: House prices to fall by 10pc, economist says

House prices could fall by 10pc by the end of next year, a leading economist has said. Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said prices were likely to fall around 3pc over the final months of 2010 and that a further drop of around 5pc in house prices looked "highly possible" in 2011.

Posted by mark @ 12:09 PM 10 Comments

What Spain can teach us about the UK housing market

MoneyWeek: What Spain can teach us about the UK housing market

Property bulls believe that high UK house prices reflect supply and demand. They're right. But it's the supply and demand for credit, not houses, that matters. And current conditions in Spain's property market are proof of the fact.

Posted by damien @ 11:36 AM 5 Comments

Even china is expected to fight inflation, you listening Mervy

CNN Money: China's inflation battle intensifies

There is little the Chinese policymakers can do to control food prices other than provide subsidies, said Virendra Singh, director in international economics for Moody's But he said there is concern that rising food prices could spill over to the rest of the economy as workers demand higher wages. So his firm is expecting the People's Bank of China to move soon to raise interest rates. In fact, the August price report got particular attention when China moved up the release of the data by two days, prompting some to speculate the move was done to give financial markets a chance to digest the news and possibly open the way for the People's Bank of China the chance to raise interest rate

Posted by mark @ 11:24 AM 6 Comments

We own property - protect us from taxation!

Daily Mail: Lib Dems risk Tory rift with 'soak the rich' land value tax

The reactionary middle-class baby-boomer vitriol in the comments is breathtakingly simple-minded.

Posted by paul @ 08:25 AM 26 Comments

Sunday, September 12, 2010

More or less deflation? Banks told to double their cash reserves

Financial regulators have reached a deal to force global banks to double the spare cash they hold in the biggest shake-up since the economic crisis nearly brought down the system.

Posted by fuzzy @ 09:36 PM 0 Comments

Future food shortages

Daily Telegraph: The backlash begins against the world landgrab

Countries becoming more protectionist on foreign ownership of their land

Posted by tom101 @ 08:27 PM 3 Comments

While Martin Ellis trots out the HBOS party line, look at what they're actually doing!

The Scotsman: Lloyds starts £100 million property sale

"UP TO £100 million worth of luxury rental properties bought by HBOS-backed development firm Heritor's during the boom years have been put up for sale as Lloyds Banking Group accelerates its disposal of property assets inherited from Bank of Scotland." But why would they do such a thing now that the market has 'stabilised'? "It is understood that those responsible for processing property interests at Lloyds are keen to deal with assets and holdings now while residential prices are favourable. One source said: "Residential prices are static but static might be looking really good in six months.""

Posted by luigi @ 01:46 PM 0 Comments

Nadeem Walayat - UK House Price Forecast

Market oracle: Britains Population Growth and Ageing Demographics Impact on UK House Prices

The long-term battle being played in the UK housing market is that of new build supply always trying to play catchup with ever increasing demand as a consequence of the UK's growing population and changing demographics which is set against many other developed countries that are either experiencing falling populations such as Germany or have ample space to build far beyond that demanded as a consequence of population growth such as the United States. Therefore this analysis as part of a series on the UK housing market seeks to gauge the likely impact of population growth and demographics on UK house prices over the next 10 years.

Posted by jack c @ 01:11 PM 22 Comments

Martin Ellis (housing economist at the Halifax) gets his crystal ball out again

Scotsman: Martin Ellis: Housing market has stabilised as interest rates remain at record low

House prices rebounded during much of 2009 as supply shortages helped to push up prices. More recent indicators suggest that the market is now broadly stable, with house price inflation having cooled since last year. Prices are 9 per cent above the low reached in April 2009 following a 23 per cent decline between August 2007 and April 2009.The underlying rate of house price growth has slowed since the start of the year and there has been a mixed picture of monthly rises and falls so far in 2010

Posted by jack c @ 12:55 PM 6 Comments

Barclays' chief: investment banks ain't casinos. For sure.

Greg Pytel: Investment banking perverse casino model

As The Telegraph reported: "Bob Diamond, the new chief executive of Barclays Bank, has turned on critics of "casino banking" saying that the use of the term "has no basis in reality" ( Mr Diamond is right. Such use of the term is an insult to casino owners. As Pytel showed in his brief comment to Vince Cable it is a "perverted casino banking".

Posted by ant @ 07:28 AM 1 Comments

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Shelter - Five scams to avoid

Citywire: Nearly one million people fall victim of landlord scams

Almost one million people have fallen victim to landlord and private tenancy scams in the last three years, research revealed today. Of the 2,234 UK adults surveyed by YouGov, 2% admitted they had been scammed. This equates to around one million people in Great Britain, according to housing charity Shelter. Meanwhile, a fifth of tenants and one in four landlords have never heard of the Tenancy Deposit Protection Scheme which was introduced by Government in April 2007 to ensure money paid by tenants is kept safe.

Posted by jack c @ 05:42 PM 10 Comments

Nice data set alhtough a little dated

BBC: In Graphics: Eurozone

Some nice graphics and tables for those of you that way inclined. If you like decimals, percentages and generally big numbers you may like to get some popcorn ready!

Posted by brickormortis @ 04:16 PM 2 Comments

"In terms of the housing market those with a mortgage are getting less optimistic"

Investors Chronicle: How long can despondency last?

This is now the third successive month where all the constituent factors for our IC Confidence Index have produced negative scores. The latest indicator's continuing fall was in part due to its house price factor which dropped to a score of -4 and is close to joining the five factors already on the lowest score possible that may be attained. Clearly an indication that this is not a conducive time for would be investors. The factor for house prices is based on Nationwide’s House Price Index and its percentage change on month. In August house prices fell yet again this time by 0.9 per cent over the previous month. This is the first time since February 2009 that house prices have fallen in two consecutive months.

Posted by jack c @ 02:20 PM 0 Comments

Another builder begging for money

Telegraph: Redrow chief wants help for first-time buyers

Steve Morgan, chairman of housebuilder Redrow, has called on the Government to intervene in the mortgage market in order to remove the "major constraint" holding back a housing recovery. Mr Morgan said the lack of mortgages for first-buyers was a "very avoidable" situation. "We are not blaming the banks," he said. "This comes down to Basel III and the restrictions on their balance sheet." The Redrow chairman said first-time buyers often had to provide a deposit of 20pc to secure a mortgage, compared to a historic average of 6pc. He urged the Government to set up an insurance indemnity scheme for first-time buyers to ease the problem, or provide tax breaks.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:30 PM 9 Comments

Financial astrology points to lower equity and house prices

ArabianMoney: Astrologer Arch Crawford sees crash August through October

The astrologer acknowledged as one of the best financial market timers of the past 30 years is seeing the biggest disruption in the heavens for centuries from August and running through October. Stock market and house price falls will follow.

Posted by peter cooper @ 12:25 PM 0 Comments

Support for property?

This is money: Why our dials point to a spike in property interest

This is money give some web search analysis that suggests that there's still plenty of interest in buying property.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:20 PM 1 Comments

Signs of an inflation pick-up

Daily Telegraph: Food inflation could hit 7% by year's end

We keep being told by the Bank of England that price rises and inflation are temporary and yet it keeps being well above target. If these forecasts come to fruition then it might rise again and the rises in commodity prices do seem concerning.

Posted by francesca25 @ 11:47 AM 0 Comments

A real threat to social cohesion

The Guardian: Coalition cuts will hit poor 10 times harder than rich, says TUC

The coalition's spending cuts will hit the poorest in society 10 times harder than the richest as the health, social and education services they rely on are slashed, an extensive new study for the Trades Union Congress has found. The TUC general secretary, Brendan Barber, says the research proves that the Conservatives are breaching their election promise to introduce cuts fairly.

Posted by devo @ 10:11 AM 23 Comments

New-build timber framed flats "in danger of total collapse"

BBC: Firefighters tackle Basingstoke construction site fire

The building, 100 metres (328ft) by 200 (656ft), was well alight when crews arrived shortly before 1830 on Friday. The Chief Fire Officer stated; "When these buildings catch fire the actual structure burns. It often leads to total collapse and that puts the safety of our firefighters at risk." I have always wondered about this type of construction and their longevity and fire safety especially as they get older rather than when they are being actually built.

Posted by enuii @ 09:41 AM 13 Comments

More like why save

Save Wye: Save Wye

This is the ultimate NIMBY website - delve into the mind of the NIMBY if you dare?

Posted by the number cruncher @ 12:19 AM 23 Comments

Friday, September 10, 2010

NIMBYS and boomers strangling productive economy

BBC: 10 September 2010 Last updated at 14:40 Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Protest at sand and gravel mining proposal in Wiltshire

Thought I would rewrite this foor the beeb. Residents of a Wiltshire village where 300 acres of farmland have been earmarked for sand and gravel extraction are protesting at the plans because it might create jobs for the youngsters and devalue there houses.

Posted by khards @ 11:37 PM 4 Comments

Control over the City is passing from Westminster to Brussels

The Telegraph: The City casino days are over

Life is about to change for hedge funds, commodity traders, and the 'prop desks' of global banks in the City of London.

Posted by devo @ 11:07 PM 0 Comments

Housing Associatiions Exposed to Legal Action and Heavy Fines as a result of Connaught Collapse

Guardian: Connaught collapse raises legal fears over maintenance contracts

Looks like the lawyers may make a packet out of the Connaught collapse as a result of EU contracts law and the novation strategy of the administrator KPMG.

Posted by enuii @ 07:42 PM 0 Comments

Not enough land, my @rse (or his)

BBC News: Naturist gardener angry over council's house plan

A naturist is claiming a council has breached his human rights after it approved plans for houses overlooking his garden. Leslie Howard, 70, put up fencing around his home in the West Yorkshire village of Steeton so he could tend to his garden in the nude. "The application for housing next to Mr Howard's property will see homes being built 30 metres from Mr Howard's house so it was considered there would be no loss of privacy within habitable rooms. "The council's planning process and procedures are compatible and balanced with the Human Rights Act and we are confident this application complies with these standards." Never mind seeing it all, I've heard it all now!

Posted by happyrenting @ 05:52 PM 0 Comments

Well meaning charity attempts economics

The Press Association: Housing benefit cap 'to cost £120m'

If they are correct that the removal of housing benefit will cost money through unintended consequences, why not propose to increase housing benefit? Take the logic to the extreme and we can solve the budget deficit by guaranteeing every landlord can have a tenant paid for by the state, even in Mayfair. With house prices saved and with them the banks this seems a no-brainer?

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 05:24 PM 2 Comments

Latest mortgage activity stats

Mortgagestrategy: Mortgage activity slumps 12%

Mortgage activity dropped by 12% in August as funding issues and fears over a double dip recession continue, says the National Mortgage Index. The average purchase loan size fell by 7.3% to just £129,270. And there was a big rise in London residents choosing fixed rate deals. Purchase mortgage applications fell by 10.8% and remortgage applications collapsed by a whopping 15.3%.

Posted by jack c @ 02:58 PM 3 Comments


Dailymail: 40,000 frontline police staff face axe if spending cuts go through, warns union boss

The loss of up to 40,000 frontline police jobs if Government budget cuts go ahead would be 'Christmas for criminals', it was claimed today. The Police Federation said thousands of positions would have to be slashed in a move which could devastate the service. Specialist departments, including those involved with child protection and domestic violence face the axe. The warning came as Hampshire Police unveiled plans to slash 1,400 jobs

Posted by mark @ 01:53 PM 13 Comments

Better than text message!

Yahoo: Connaught cuts 700 jobs by phone

Connaught (LSE: CNT.L - news) 's administrators have made 700 staff redundant and sparked anger among unions by revealing the job cuts to workers by telephone.

Posted by mark @ 12:11 PM 4 Comments

We own land! Give us money!

City AM: Redrow calls for state help on mortgages

More Blue Socialism from the landowning classes, for and on behalf of the Home-Owner-Ists.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:31 AM 13 Comments

Boris concerned over drying-up of cheap labour

The Guardian: Boris Johnson to stand for second term as London mayor

"Today, Johnson played down his rift with the coalition over its planned cap on non-EU immigration, saying he was merely lobbying for limits to be "thought through" so businesses such as law firms and film companies were not prevented from importing the best talent". I've always found this argument to be disingenuous at best. I wonder how many rocket scientists (the Govt's proposed cap) this will adversely affect as opposed to, say, NMW domestic staff? I don't think for a minute that Boris actually believes this rhetoric.

Posted by sibley's love child @ 11:19 AM 0 Comments

Property lobby organisation thinks it's good people are priced out

FT: Government needs to support private rental sector

The government has missed an opportunity to support the fledging professional private rented sector the British Property Federation (BPF) has warned. The property lobby organisation said it was disappointed the Treasury would not help boost the UK’s supply of rental homes homes. The Treasury's decision follows a consultation initiated by the previous government, which was looking at ways of boosting investment in the private rented sector. The BPF claimed cost-effective measures of encouraging investment included encouraging institutions such as pension funds to invest in homes for rent and the disaggregation of stamp duty land tax (SDLT) on the bulk purchase of homes.

Posted by jack c @ 11:17 AM 12 Comments

10 year yield compaisons - sovereign , muni, and commercial examples

EWI: Debt Man’s Curve: It's No Place to Play

imo quite a good summary chart of differences between IRs across a broad spectrum of issuers. Note where the UK and US is and the author's comments. Something to watch as the "bond bubble" erm bubbles / pops.

Posted by techieman @ 09:36 AM 7 Comments

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Some harsh truths are unavoidable

The Telegraph: There is no soft option when confronting our economic reality

It was J K Galbraith, the American economist and diplomat, who concluded that there are two classes of forecasters: "Those who don't know – and those who don't know they don't know." He was right, but only partially. In today's febrile financial environment, a third class of forecaster has emerged. Those who thought they knew, but now know they didn't.

Posted by devo @ 11:24 PM 32 Comments

A pretty blunt warning

Guardian: Standard & Poor's warns of wave of house repossessions

The government's planned spending cuts and tax rises could trigger a fresh wave of house repossessions as hard-pressed borrowers find it impossible to meet their mortgage payments, the ratings agency Standard & Poor's said today. In a downbeat assessment of the UK property market, S&P stressed that house prices remained overvalued and many families were vulnerable to George Osborne's budgetary squeeze.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:37 PM 5 Comments

Slow boil

FT: Trade deficit rises to postwar record

What happens to a country after a 20% currency devaluation? When the existing contracts run out, you have to pay more for the same imports, but the exporters still get paid the same amount. This shows up as a huge sterling priced deficit. I think the argument that we imported more real goods all of a sudden during a downturn a bit pointless. Companies are in the business of selling whatever the specialise in, they had to pay more, and now it remains to be seen if they can sell on to the UK consumer... This IMO is an import price shock and I finally have an answer to why domestic prices didn't change after our glorious leaders dumped their own currency, basically because economic events like this go at the same speed as a UK house price adjustment (unless they go dramatically faster !!!).

Posted by stillthinking @ 09:42 PM 2 Comments

250 New Towns Club state their case

BBC Radio 4: You and Yours

26 minutes 16 seconds in: Ian Abley of the 250 New Towns Club state their case for 500,000 new homes per annum on 250 new (greenfield) sites; Kate Henderson of TCPA and Housing Minister Grant Shaps respond. Googled the club and found them at:

Posted by greenmind @ 06:13 PM 16 Comments

Home-Owner-Ist Fail Of The Week

The Daily Mail: Prince Charles, a £20m loan and a headache for his charity: Bad property deal saddles foundation with serious debt

The Prince of Wales has put his charitable foundation under strain after agreeing a bad property deal that is now draining funds away from his other good causes, it has been disclosed. A £20million loan taken out in 2007 to help save Dumfries House, in Ayrshire, Scotland, for the nation has left the Prince's Charities Foundation a victim of the property market crash. The £43million purchase of Dumfries House has saddled the foundation, which is supposed to channel money into his charities, with a multi-million debt.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 05:14 PM 11 Comments

Bear Food

The Move Channel: Britons to 'lose average salary' off home

Britons will lose the equivalent of a typical annual salary off the value of their home by the end of next year, new figures reveal... Economists warn the gloomy economic outlook and the reluctance of banks to lend money will push prices even lower, leading to a second house price crash. It comes as the latest house price index from Nationwide reported typical values dropping 0.9 per cent in August... He forecasts property prices will drop 5 per cent this year and a further 10 per cent in 2011. It means a typical property costing £163,500 at the beginning of the year will lose almost £23,000 by the end of next year.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 02:27 PM 7 Comments

Interest Rates

Blog: Interest Rates

This year, you have had over a thousand pounds stolen from you. Who stole it? The Bank Of England did by not doing their jobs properly.

Posted by neil @ 01:55 PM 0 Comments

Good old Labour

The Sun: 1 in 5 British homes now jobless

ONE in five households in Britain has NO ONE in work, shocking figures revealed yesterday. And in some areas the figure is a devastating ONE IN FOUR. Official statistics show 1.9million kids - one in six of the UK's children - are growing up in families where benefits are the only income.

Posted by debtfree @ 12:34 PM 48 Comments

Base rate held for 18th consecutive month

BBC: UK interest rates remain at record low of 0.5%

The Bank of England has kept UK interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.5% for the 18th consecutive month. The Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision had been expected, but calls have been growing for an increase in rates to curb inflation. CPI inflation was 3.1% in July, above the Bank of England's 2% target rate.

Posted by jack c @ 12:06 PM 16 Comments

Ruling Class in the US, relevant ? You decide. America's Ruling Class -- And the Perils of Revolution

Consensus among the right people is the only standard of truth. Facts and logic matter only insofar as proper authority acknowledges them.

Posted by andrew @ 11:56 AM 1 Comments

Greece 2 starring "Olivia" Ireland and "john" default coming

Independent: ECB tries to stabilise the cost of Irish borrowing

The scale of bank rescues is also concerning some traders. S&P, for instance, claims that Anglo will cost the Exchequer €35bn in total. Another worry is whether European banks can roll over huge debts during September. There are also questions over asset quality at German banks.

Posted by mark @ 11:39 AM 1 Comments

The jobless recovery is gaining pace again...

Northampton Chronicle and Echo: Advice centre for teenagers in Northampton to close with the loss of 50 jobs

"A TEENAGE advice centre in Northampton’s main shopping street is due to close its doors following the announcement of major cutbacks. The Connexions centre in Abington Street opened in 2005 on the site of the well-known Spinadisc record shop, which closed down after almost 30 years." I have some advice for all teenages...move abraod and live in a decent country.

Posted by thecountofnowhere @ 11:31 AM 2 Comments

More jobs to go..

Lancashire Evening Post: BAE in jobs bombshell

Workers at defence giant BAE Systems in Lancashire were to be told of major job losses today.

Posted by mark @ 10:53 AM 5 Comments

Dead Cat Bounce Over - Depression on course

Bloomberg: BOE Mulls `Second Wave' of Bond Buying as Rebound Ebbs

Manufacturing, services and construction all faltered in August and the housing market weakened, surveys showed last week. ---------------------------

Posted by estrader @ 10:15 AM 2 Comments

Now it starts- moan moan moan give me cash please bail me out blah blah blah- credit checks????

Liverpool daily post: Connaught collapse costs Liverpool building firm £180,000

Many Merseyside sub-contractors face not being paid for work they have done for Connaught, who had a huge repairs contract with One Vision Housing for 12,000 former council houses in Sefton.

Posted by mark @ 10:15 AM 4 Comments

NAEA - "people concentrating on their summer holidays"

Mortgagestrategy: Housing activity down in August, says NAEA

Activity in the housing market fell in August but the National Association of Estate Agents says that housing stock remains level. In its monthly activity report the NAEA shows that the number of house-hunters registered per branch decreased on average from 292 in July to 250 in August. The number of sales agreed per branch decreased from eight in July to seven in August. Average number of properties available for sale per branch increased slightly from to 68 in July to 69 in August and the percentage of first-time buyers decreased from 26% to 21%.

Posted by jack c @ 09:45 AM 9 Comments

Buying a second home makes no sense

ArabianMoney: Why this is definitely not the time to buy a second home

The allure of owning a holiday or second home is pretty irresistible for some expatriates, and the lower mortgage rates on offer can make this option seem pretty tempting right now. But this is a terrible time to think of buying a second property as interest rates will soon have to go up and house prices still have a way to fall.

Posted by peter cooper @ 09:21 AM 0 Comments

It tops a league table of 50 ghost towns where the rate of empty shops is increasing

The sun: Altrincham - Ghost town

Historic Altrincham - eight miles from the throbbing city centre of Manchester and once considered "posh" - now has the highest rate of vacant retail units in the country.

Posted by mark @ 09:00 AM 7 Comments

Nick and Dave should ponder this one

Bloomberg: Subprime 2.0 Is Coming Soon to a Suburb Near You

On the second anniversary of the bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it’s now obvious that weak lending standards, serving the political interest of affordable housing for all, were the main reason for the nation’s mortgage meltdown. But the government just can’t permit lending to anyone and everyone; it must insist on prudent judgment about who will repay and who will default. Not only will borrowers who lack a down payment, steady income, employment and a good credit history probably get into trouble -- surprise! -- but too much irresponsible lending also creates artificial demand for houses, driving prices into the stratosphere and, as we have just experienced, puts all homeowners at risk.

Posted by sureseam @ 07:42 AM 4 Comments

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

How many other companies are lying about their status?

Guardian: Connaught administrators say they need goodwill of councils

First part of their name is apt as just four months ago connaught told investors: "We have had a really, really great six months, really excellent. And the outlook for the full year is probably even better ... our prospects are virtually limitless." Fi

Posted by enuii @ 11:28 PM 4 Comments

A pretty picture too

CNN Money: Big bank bloodbath fears. They're ba-ack!

But for a look at just how bad things could get if credit conditions were to become as dire as they were in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse, check out the chart at the top of this story. It features data from Hidden Levers.

Posted by mark @ 06:54 PM 1 Comments

Renting from the Bank might no longer be an option

Mortgagestrategy: FSA could kill off interest-only, warns CML

The Council of Mortgage Lenders says the Financial Services Authority risks killing off interest-only mortgages if it goes through with the proposals in its Mortgage Market Review. In its latest issue of News and Views the CML says lenders taking responsibility for the performance of the repayment method could lead to the withdrawal of interest-only mortgages from the market. It says in the current risk-averse lending environment, with the FSA adopting a more interventionist and prescriptive approach, firms will react cautiously to a tightening of the rules on interest-only mortgages.

Posted by jack c @ 04:34 PM 13 Comments

A Landlord Speaks

Property Talk Live: Stop the housebuilding insanity

If you all keep building I might not make any money.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 04:28 PM 7 Comments

The end of interest only mortgages - common sense, but uncommon disaster

Investment & Business News: Mortgage lending: a return to reason

Common sense may have returned to mortgage lending with banks looking to reduce the number of interest only mortgages. But the economic consequences in the short term may be an uncommon disaster.

Posted by mwoolgar @ 02:35 PM 0 Comments

Happy families

Telegraph: How house prices and debts are building ugly tensions between parents and their children

The gap between baby boomers, who continue to enjoy the wealth-enhancing effects of decades of house price inflation, and their adult children, who are burdened with soaring debts and the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, is growing wider. Several independent reports published today suggest these macroeconomic trends are creating ugly tensions in millions of homes and there may be trouble ahead for many parents and their grown-up children.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:15 PM 44 Comments

Even higher houseprices with this news!

Yahoo: Mini property boom over amid economy fears

Economists said the housing market is at a turning point, with considerable weakness expected to set in during the next year. The predict prices to drop at much as 15 per cent from the beginning of this year to the end of 2011. Paul Diggle, property economist at Capital Economics, said: The lack of available credit, weak buyer demand and negative house price expectations among other things, have yet to pass through to sustained house price falls.

Posted by mark @ 01:07 PM 1 Comments

So weak job growth = higher houseprices

Reuters: Job growth weakens markedly in August

"In the months ahead we will see a substantial reduction in public sector headcount as the cuts begin to bite." The Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent fiscal watchdog, reckons up to 600,000 public sector employees could lose their jobs in the budget cuts over the next six years.

Posted by mark @ 01:04 PM 1 Comments

And it continues

Yahoo / reuters: UK commercial property prices fall again in August - CBRE

British commercial property price growth fell for the fifth consecutive month in August as worries over tenant strength curbed investor enthusiasm for buying discounted assets, data showed on Wednesday

Posted by mark @ 12:59 PM 0 Comments

80,000 Investment Banking Jobs May Go In Next 18 Months

Hereisthecity: 80,000 Investment Banking Jobs May Go In Next 18 Months

"Ms Whitney is also predicting that most bankers will be disappointed with their 2010 bonuses, as year-end payouts are likely to be on the low side as firms start to rein in costs." Big dampener on the London property "engine" of the UK. I do like the way the media [even this site that claims to be City centric] STILL thinks everybody who work in the City is an investment banker.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:05 PM 0 Comments

I know we've done this story already...

Daily Mail: Too poor to retire: The over-55s with no pension, no savings, just massive debts

What happened to this Home-Owner-Ist rhetoric about the older generations having behaved responsibly and the young being blamed for everything?

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 11:27 AM 10 Comments

Riots in the streets soon, even now people fight over the reduced items

Bloomberg: U.K. Food Prices Increase at Fastest Pace in a Year, BRC Says

U.K. food prices increased the fastest in a year in August as manufacturers passed on higher commodity prices, the British Retail Consortium said.

Posted by mark @ 11:07 AM 4 Comments

More increases in houseprices due to layoffs

Manchester evening news: Axe falls on 194 jobs at Business Link

The Business Link Northwest support service to firms and individual entrepreneurs is to axe 194 jobs from its 338-strong workforce after seeing its budget slashed. The organisation, which is based in Preston but operates across the region, is managed by the Northwest Regional Development Agency. Business Link Northwest said the job losses would be across all departments.

Posted by mark @ 10:48 AM 3 Comments

House prices up?

Bbc: Connaught administration threatens thousands of jobs

Its a good job house prices went up last month !

Posted by jonboy @ 09:38 AM 0 Comments

Halifax: +0.2%MoM, +4.6%YoY

Bloomberg: House Prices Rise For Second Month in Sign of Stable Market

U.K. house prices unexpectedly rose for a second month in August as a strengthening economy helped support demand, Halifax said. The average cost of a home rose 0.2%from July, when it gained 0.7%. Economists had forecast a 0.5% decline, based on the median of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, prices rose 4.4 percent to an average £167,953.

Posted by little professor @ 09:09 AM 15 Comments

''stabilised'' - *!%$

BBC: Halifax says house prices have stabilised

''House prices have stabilised, according to the latest survey from the Halifax.It says the cost of the average UK home rose by 0.2% in August, but the annual rate of increase declined further, from 4.9% in July to 4.6% last month.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:51 AM 27 Comments

Thank you Grant Shapps you Tory toss*er

Yahoo News: Rogue Landlords harrassing tenants

Many tenants continue to have their lives blighted by rogue landlords despite laws designed to protect them, a housing charity has said. Shelter said it had found evidence that landlords in the private rented sector were mistreating their tenants, or letting out properties unfit to live in. Nearly all of the environmental health officers said they had come across landlords who persistently ignored their responsibilities.' Of course Grant Shapps' first act was to abolish sensible plans to regulate this lot - 'cutting red tape' apparently is more important than shutting down criminal landlords. Dogma before common sense - wasn't the con-dem coalition supposed to help make sure rabid right wing ideology wouldn't triumph over human decency?

Posted by montesquieu @ 03:44 AM 5 Comments

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

It's catching on

This is Money: TV chef sells up to rent

Hahha... renting is becoming fashionable

Posted by gozbong @ 09:40 PM 0 Comments

So true, even in 2010

YouTube: Dave Allen on...BANKS

So true, even in 2010

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:50 PM 6 Comments

Sound familiar?

Wall Street Journal: Europe's bank stress tests minimized debt risks

By some estimates European banks are holding over €2 trillion of private and sovereign debt from Greece, Spain and Portugal, all of which face sharp downgrades on sovereign debt. The ECB accepts these bonds at above-market valuations as collateral for the liquidity it provides the banks (who cannot get it from interbank/wholesale funding markets) and is thus hiding the problem of under-capitalisation. The recent stress tests, showing that banks were relatively unexposed to this sovereign debt, were part of this sleight-of-hand. This article shows the massive gap between the sovereign bonds the banks actually hold (a lot) and what they say they hold (not a lot). The BIS says French banks hold nearly €35 billion of Spanish sovereign debt but the stress tests say it's only €6.6 bn.

Posted by icarus @ 06:49 PM 2 Comments

'Prime' house prices may crash harder than the rest

MoneyWeek: 'Prime' house prices may crash harder than the rest

Whatever London's top-end estate agents might like us to think, their patch is just as vulnerable as everyone else's.

Posted by damien @ 04:27 PM 1 Comments

Following on from today's Citywire article

Mortgagestrategy: Housing benefit cuts are "recipe for destitution"

The government’s proposed cuts to housing benefits are a “recipe for destitution” that will hinder the UK’s economic recovery, the British Property Federation is warning. The BPF says the cuts will be hard for up to 800,000 claimants of Local Housing Allowance, who may be forced to move away from employment hot spots because of high housing demand. It estimates there are over 400,000 new claimants that will be hit by the changes, and that a further 400,000 people already in work and claiming the benefit may be priced out of their homes -and so potentially have to leave their jobs.

Posted by jack c @ 04:12 PM 8 Comments

Has the writer just bought a house?

Motley Fool: House price crashes are rarer than you think!

What goes up, must come down. Yet since the Fifties, house-price crashes have been surprisingly infrequent...

Posted by mr g @ 03:33 PM 12 Comments

Most believe 'retirement as we know it is over'

BBC News: Most believe 'retirement as we know it is over'

Nearly three quarters of people believe retirement as we currently understand it will not be possible in the future, a BBC Newsnight poll has suggested. The last line made me laugh out loud; as I for one feel more than a tad resentful of an older generation living in houses I can only dream of while I pay through the nose for their unfunded final salary pensions, healthcare and State Benefits, with little chance of reciprocation.... All my friends are emigrating; maybe I should too...?

Posted by will @ 01:55 PM 3 Comments

Here We Go

More problems for Ireland

Financial Times: As ye stress test so shall ye sow

This article looks at the deterioration in the price of Irish government debt prices today and follows on from articles on this subject. There is stress around banks in the euro zone with someone having to borrow some 60 million dollars from the European Central Bank. So after a quiet spell tensions return. Now think of Ireland's banks and the cross-currents with her property markets which explains why her government bond yields have gone above 6% today.

Posted by francesca25 @ 01:16 PM 0 Comments

QE 2 the sneaky way + fannie mae new subprime lending = ??????

CNN: Obama to introduce another business tax cut

Altogether, the three new Obama proposals add up to $350 billion, which is starting to creep up to nearly half the size of the $787 billion stimulus plan the president pushed through Congress in the first 100 days of his administration. A package of that size could call into question the insistence of top White House aides that they are not putting together a "second stimulus" package

Posted by mark @ 12:45 PM 1 Comments

Laugh of the day? - check out the pic


Mr Alvand had to cut a path through the 16 giant cypress leylandii trees that dwarf the semi-detached houses so the postman could get to his door.

Posted by mark @ 10:24 AM 14 Comments

Another nail in the BTL coffin

Citywire: Landlords brace themselves for benefit caps

... and once the final nail goes in, this BTL coffin wants to be filled with cement and dropped into the Mariana Trench.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:07 AM 29 Comments

Exeter-based social housing company set to go under

BBC: Social housing group Connaught 'nears administration'

Connaught, the property services group that specialises in social housing, is on the brink of going into administration, the BBC has learned. The company, which employs 10,000 people, has suspended trading of its shares, and said a further announcement would be made "in due course". Connaught has £220m of debt, provided by six banks and a quartet of other creditors. But it said discussions to secure further funding had been unsuccessful

Posted by jack c @ 09:00 AM 8 Comments

Another trend indicator

BBC News: House prices: will they start falling again?

Nothing new here but another indication of softening sentiment. The usual suspects give typical comments on the state of the UK market: Ed Stansfield (Capital Economics), Ray Boulger (John Charcol) , Jonathan Davis, Martin Ellis (Halifax), Bernard Clarke (CML), Martin Gahbauer (Nationwide) and Simon Rubinsohn (Rics.)

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:33 AM 32 Comments

Connaught to go into administration

BBC Peston's Blog: Connaught to go into administration

Connaught, the property services group that specialises in social housing, is on the brink of going into administration, according to bankers close to the company. An announcement is expected tomorrow, I have learned. Connaught, which employs 10,000 people, has £220m of debt, provided by half a dozen banks and a quartet of other creditors. The lead bank is Royal Bank of Scotland, which recently provided Connaught with a further £15m in an attempt to keep the group going. Connaught ran into serious difficulties over the past couple of months, after it emerged that a series of contracts would be lossmaking.

Posted by togger @ 12:27 AM 0 Comments

Monday, September 6, 2010

Is this ageism?

Love Money: Earn 6% on children’s savings

Could we sue Halifax and the other institutions for ageism? (Irony) Before anyone asks the connection with HPC, there are plenty of articles about IR's posted on this site!

Posted by mr g @ 11:37 PM 6 Comments

Some in the FED will be only to happy to follow the advice...

Telegraph: Fed must embark on new stimulus blitz, urges retiring deputy chairman Donald Kohn

'The Federal Reserve must embark on a new blitz of measures should the recovery continue to make little dent in unemployment, a leading light at the central bank for the last four decades has said. Donald Kohn, who retired as chairman Ben Bernanke's deputy with little public fanfare last week, admitted that "it's going to be a slower recovery. But acceptance of that reality is not a reason for the central bank not to do everything it can to help the recovery along." '

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:58 PM 6 Comments

New car sales halved in August

Thisismoney: New car sales decimated in August

Cutting through the froth sales down 17.5% on August last years figures as punters presumably run out of free money.

Posted by enuii @ 06:28 PM 8 Comments

The cent drops...?

CNBC: Housing Woes Bring New Cry: Let Market Crash

Growing realisation in the US that Govt intervention can't maintain a housing bubble forever...

Posted by screamifyouwanttogofaster @ 03:58 PM 0 Comments

Yeah, but they're still not falling fast enough...

Property Wire: Luxury London property prices continues to fall, latest index shows

Prime London residential prices are continuing to decline but at a slower rate as demand and supply become more closely aligned, the latest real estate index shows. Prices of luxury property in central London fell by 0.1% in August, a decline which followed the 0.5% fall in July, according to the Knight Frank Prime Central London Index for August 2010. The recent price falls mean that the annual rate of price growth, which hit 21% in April this year, has softened to 16% in August. The price declines are marginal across all price ranges. However, the biggest drops are being seen in the £1 million to £2.5 million sector.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 01:57 PM 0 Comments

Does this negative number re capacity utlisation explain IR policy?

H.M. Treasury: Inflation and the output gap in the UK: march 2010

this was part of a discussion with easybet man re tightness in cap utilisation. i think it goes some way to explaining uk ir policy: ".. this paper demonstrates that the level of the output gap has an important role in explaining inflation and suggests that the lagged effect of the large negative output gap will generate significant downward pressure on inflation over the next few years. The analysis also finds strong empirical evidence of the influence of import prices on inflation, with a one-off shock to import prices taking around 1 year to fully feed through to inflation. .. The analysis has informed the Treasury’s view on recent inflation developments and underpins judgements on the prospects for inflation."

Posted by techieman @ 11:56 AM 15 Comments

Could this be the start of an improved Private Rented Sector?

Inside Housing: HCA signs landmark private sector deal

Under the deal with Berkeley Homes the developer will set up a private rental fund that it will use to buy 555 homes it is building over the next two years. The HCA is putting in £45.6 million through its Kickstart scheme. Of this £28.5 million is equity, £455,000 is gap funding, and £16.6 million comes through the National Affordable Housing Programme. The HCA launched its private rented sector initiative in May 2009 with the aim of encouraging institutional investors into the private rented market.

Posted by greenmind @ 11:19 AM 1 Comments

Game over

Latimes: Fannie Mae tries to stimulate market for foreclosed homes

The mortgage giant quietly launches the HomePath program, which offers subprime-era terms for buyers: minimal down payments, no appraisals, no mortgage insurance and lower minimum credit scores.

Posted by mark @ 10:36 AM 3 Comments

Mainstream press continues relentless march to capitulation?

Metro: Lower house prices are NOT a bad thing

Excellent BEARISH consideration in a paper with a readership of over 3.2 million ( Three letters in top right hand corner of page 42. Graeme Brown, director of Shelter Scotland speaks sense, albeit a tad cautiously, as he states "there is a general assumption that rising prices are a good thing but maybe we have become too accustomed to the hyper-house price inflation of the past 15 years" and in conclusion promotes the idea of seeing "the return of house prices to to some semblance of sanity as something to be celebrated not feared." Two other letters presumably to add "balance" (lol!), including the comically naive/ignorant "Maria" from Northamptonshire who likely doesn't even exist. (n.b. you need to supply an email address to read the Metro's "e-edition").

Posted by mick rupert @ 10:21 AM 11 Comments

Unemployment doesn't bode well for house prices

Telegraph: Job vacancy decline knocks confidence

Industries including engineering, manufacturing, financial services, training and IT all suffered a drop in the number of jobs available in August compared with July, according to the Reed Jobs Index. A separate survey revealed one in five small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) anticipated job cuts over the next year.

Posted by drewster @ 10:04 AM 2 Comments

A non existent deflationary scenario?

The Market Oracle: Inflation Mega-Trend Long-term Growth Spiral Continues to Drive Stock Market Trend

''The stock market closed up 298 points on the week at 10,448 (10,150). The bears that predominantly follow a non existent deflationary scenario, consistently and persistently fail to comprehend what drives the worlds economies and stock markets which is the inflation mega-trend.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:38 AM 15 Comments

Homebuyers have spring in their step Homebuyers have spring in their step

MORE than 100,000 Sydneysiders are waking from winter hibernation ready for a spring home-buying spree that experts predict will jump-start Sydney's property market. Real estate agencies are anticipating a record flood of inquiries in coming weeks. They predicted buyers would unleash in October, a late spring bloom brought about by a recent positive turnaround in economic and market sentiment, albeit delayed by the continued stalemate in federal parliament.

Posted by ozantispruik @ 06:22 AM 1 Comments

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Bootle's latest bear food

Daily Telegraph: Are housing troubles resurfacing - Roger Bootle

Sober overview from an acknowledged housing perma-bear, with working... He doesn't buy the suggestions that we'll see flat prices, nor that supply and demand are the key to house prices - not in the traditionally proposed manner, at least.

Posted by notyethomeless @ 09:57 PM 33 Comments

Housebuilders continue to screw everyone, whilst pulling the wool over their own eyes!

Guardian: Shareholders fear housebuilders' optimism has shaky foundations

David Ritchie, chief executive of Bovis Homes, says: "I don't think a double dip is on the cards. We could flatline for a bit, but that doesn't worry us because we are operating from a position of strength." Housebuilders have cleared unsold stock, acquired land at rock-bottom prices and cut costs to take account of lower demand. And land acquired at inflated prices has been written down to reflect new economic realities. Even if house prices fall by 5%-8% in the next year, the big players should be able to maintain margins. [Persimmon] Chief Mike Farley says: "Build costs are firmly under control at the lower prices we have negotiated over the past 24 months. These lower input costs are helping us to rebuild and sustain higher margins."

Posted by markj69 str05 @ 09:16 PM 4 Comments

Number of squatters rose almost as fast as house prices over the last decade

Wales on Sunday: Rise in squatters puts more Welsh homeowners at risk of huge eviction bills

THE number of people squatting in Welsh homes is at its highest for 40 years, claims a major bailiff firm. Hundreds of homeowners in Wales are having to fork out thousands of pounds to evict the unwanted residents, after a rise of at least 40% in the number of squatters taking over homes. The shocking figure comes as estimates suggest the popularity of squatting in Wales and England has risen year-on-year with the number of squatters increasing by a massive 132% in the past 15 years. Yet experts fear the latest projections are just the tip of the iceberg, as more and more are driven into squats as a result of the recession, a hike in house prices and rents and reduced public housing. The majority of squatters are forced into the lifestyle by financial pressures.

Posted by drewster @ 08:06 PM 2 Comments

This should start the forced sales

Fun Online Poll

Pollcode: What motivates NIMBYs?

Answer 1: They want to live in a nice house. Answer 2: They don't want anybody else to live in a nice house.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:50 PM 4 Comments

Bailout bubble

Fundstrategy: The next crisis: coming soon

Were you unnerved by the recent financial crisis? Well another one is coming soon and it is likely to be far worse.That at least is the message of Overdose: the next financial crisis, a documentary written by Martin Borgs and Johan Norberg, two free marketeers. Given that free market economists are in a small minority, whatever the proponents of “new economics” claim, it is particularly interesting to hear their viewpoint. The basic thesis is that government created a financial bubble which caused the 2008 meltdown and now is creating an even bigger one. Stimulus packages, in this view, are like giving alcohol to a drunk. They may make individuals feel better in the short term but they only make matters worse.

Posted by jack c @ 11:49 AM 1 Comments

All the money has gone!

Daily Telegraph: No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini

Dr Death strikes again. “The US has run out of bullets" Dr Roubini said the US growth rate was likely to fall below 1pc in the second half of the year, despite the biggest stimulus in history: a cut in interest rates from 5pc to zero, a budget deficit of 10pc of GDP, and $3 trillion to shore up the financial system. The anaemic pace compares with rates of 4pc-6pc at this stage of recovery in normal post-war recoveries. “We have reached stall speed. Any shock at this point can tip you back into recession.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 11:38 AM 7 Comments

Wild speculation

Telegraph: Warning of 'sharp interest rate rise' in 2012

The Bank of England is this week set to hold interest rates at 0.5pc, but with a growing expectation that when rates start to rise they will do so quickly. Economists do not expect interest rates to start rising until well into next year at the earliest, but it is thought the MPC would consider moving quickly once the process of tightening policy has begun. "The MPC wants to remind households and firms that interest rates won't be close to zero indefinitely and that basing borrowing decisions on no increase in interest rates would be a very dangerous thing to do," said an economist.

Posted by drewster @ 12:41 AM 43 Comments

Saturday, September 4, 2010

LTV ratios are the culprit again

Montreal Gazette: Housing bubble 'an accident waiting to happen': report

Steep housing price increases in Canada since 2002 have all the hallmarks of an “accident waiting to happen” if mortgage rates rise too sharply, “The hottest six real-estate markets could be in for a correction at best or, at worst, a bubble burst." The average, inflation-adjusted house price in the cities has historically held stable at between $150,000 and $220,00 in today’s dollars. But the current average price in all six major markets now is over $300,000. The report also recommended returning to pre-2006 mortgage rules, which required a down payment of 10% and a 25-year mortgage. The current rules call for 5% down and a 35-year mortgage.

Posted by drewster @ 11:52 PM 0 Comments

Shadow Mpc Votes 5-4 To Hold Rates


Or in the other word, 4 vote to raise rate while 5 resent. Now it is getting close

Posted by easybetman @ 11:52 PM 2 Comments

Government pares back spending to just the essentials?

Teeside Evening Gazette: £2m boost for Teesside housing

ALMOST £2m is being spent preparing up to 10 sites in the Teesside area for housing. The cash has been allocated by the Government to Tees Valley Unlimited (TVU) through Tees Valley Living to carry out the work. The funding to the regeneration group is one of 45 such payouts across the country from the Government’s Growth Point funding. The money will be spent over the next year on feasibility studies... [Oh I see, not actually building any houses, just throwing money at consultants to tell us that yes, houses need to be built.]

Posted by drewster @ 11:43 PM 5 Comments

Renting vs buying, the devil is in the detail

Independent: Rent or not, there's no place like home

To be honest, it wasn't until the estate agent cheerfully told me she had sold her family home and was now renting that I really tuned back in. "It's the perfect solution for us," she shouldn't have said. "We can live somewhere far nicer than we would ever have been able to buy, and if the boiler explodes in the middle of the night it's someone else's problem." Put that way, I suddenly began to question why I was battling to snatch up a property we would "add value to" rather than simply enjoy living in. But it's this "home" word that's the problem because it has been rubbed out and overwritten by "investment". Call me crazy, or a bit simple, but I don't want an investment, I just want to live somewhere that I don't need permission to hang pictures on the walls. So I'm giving up.

Posted by drewster @ 11:39 PM 2 Comments

Psssst - wanna buy a shoe-box?

The Morning Star: Cash crisis for building firms

Mr Ritchie accused the government of undermining all forms of housing projects by strategically starving the industry of cash. "This will result in increased house prices and more people being forced to live in inadequate overpriced accommodation," he warned.........I don't think so - there'd be trouble if that happened!!!!

Posted by braindeed @ 06:27 PM 0 Comments

Another One Gone

Liverpool Echo: Liverpool property tycoon and wife charged by police over bust firm with £4m debt

A LIVERPOOL property tycoon and his wife were charged by police after their firm collapsed with debts of nearly £4m. Officers from Merseyside police raided 52-year-old Ken Metcalf’s £1m home in Chester in March last year. The self-proclaimed millionaire and patron of the Prince’s Trust and Inner City Sailing Trust was questioned at length by officers from the criminal enterprise team on allegations of fraud and forgery before being released on police bail as they made further inquiries.

Posted by ritso @ 02:40 PM 0 Comments

Obviosly to be followed by an increased savings rate!

Daily mail: Timebomb' alert as lenders hike mortgage rates adding thousands to home loans

Experts are warning that lenders could hike their standard variable rate (SVR) at any time

Posted by waitingtobuy @ 11:37 AM 3 Comments

If only in Britain...

Wall Street Journal: China Set on Forcing Drop in Property Prices

BEIJING—A series of official comments in recent days have shown that the Chinese government remains committed to forcing down housing prices, despite worries about a weak global economy and complaints from property developers. The government's determination to keep cracking down on its frothy real-estate market is a political necessity. For the rest of the year, the government will "further implement measures to contain the overly rapid rise of housing prices in some cities, and curb speculative and investment demand for housing," said Mr. Zhang, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission. A range of official voices, including an advisor to the central bank, a banking regulator, and commentaries in state media, have agreed: Housing prices still need to come down.

Posted by drewster @ 10:26 AM 2 Comments

Canary in the big pit, or one-month fluke?

Western Mail: Optimism building in Wales housing market

WHILE recovery in the UK housing market continues to be slow, Wales seems to be bucking the trend with the number of houses sold in August up 28.5% compared with July. Overall, the numbers for Wales are ahead of the UK picture, where the number of house sales showed only a slight increase of 0.9% in August. “With the likelihood of interest rates staying low for the next few months, the market in Wales is looking very healthy, particularly with the number of properties coming on the market, which might be a reflection of the number of people choosing to holiday at home this year with more time to think and act on their next house move.”

Posted by drewster @ 10:15 AM 5 Comments

Ten years on the council waiting list

Northern Echo: Couple on hunger strike to protest over lack of housing

A COUPLE are on hunger strike after being on a council house waiting list for a decade. Alan and Janine Bennett have been offered one home in ten years, which they say was unsuitable for them and their 21-month-old son, James. They have vowed not to eat, starting yesterday, until a doctor advises against their action, in protest to a lack of affordable social housing. Mr Bennett said: “James will be looked after properly, but we are on hunger strike because we are just sick of waiting. “We are desperate for a council house, but this is also about making the authorities take notice. There is a serious lack of social housing available and things have to change.” The couple first applied to the former Sedgefield Borough Council for a house about ten years ago.

Posted by drewster @ 10:11 AM 15 Comments

James Galbraith excellent piece

Greg Pytel: James Galbraith: "Fraud at the root of the financial crisis"

James Galbraith makes it clear: the current financial crisis is a result of a monstrous banking scam. The message is getting to the top.

Posted by ant @ 09:06 AM 5 Comments

The Sun "wot won it" sticks to the party message

The Sun: 1,000 are paid £800 a week housing benefit

MORE than a THOUSAND families rake in a whopping £800 a week or MORE in housing benefit, The Sun can reveal. Twenty get over £1,500 a week - which is equivalent to the repayments on a £1.2MILLION mortgage. The huge sums emerged after we forced the Department for Work and Pensions to reveal the payouts under Freedom of Information laws. The Coalition Government has vowed to cap housing benefit at £400 a week. But our figures show a shocking 1,070 households across Britain currently get at least TWICE that. For a wealthy family, £800 a week - £3,200 a month - is equivalent to paying off a £600,000 mortgage. Most hard-working Brits can only dream of living in such a luxury pad.

Posted by drewster @ 01:12 AM 1 Comments

What could possibly go wrong?

Scotsman: Cash Clinic: Can I count on my rented properties to pay off my mortgage?

Q: I bought my residential house with an interest-only mortgage with the intention that when I sell my buy-to-let (BTL) properties the gains would be used to pay the capital for my residential property. Thus I have been borrowing from the equity in my residential property to maintain my BTL portfolio. A: Your plan for the future is that the capital appreciation that has arisen on your BTL properties will be sufficient to pay the balance on the interest-only mortgage secured on your home. [There follows some waffle about CGT and tax deductibility of mortgage interest vs rental income. Not a word is written about the risk of having all your eggs in one property basket if the market were to fall.]

Posted by drewster @ 01:06 AM 0 Comments

Friday, September 3, 2010

New homes data spell declining market

FT: New homes data spell declining market

The nascent recovery in the house building market appears to have ground to a halt as a leading industry survey, which measures the number of people reserving new homes to buy, dropped to its lowest level on record. The survey, conducted weekly by the Home Builders Federation, is for internal use only and is regarded by the industry as the best guide to housing demand. But its latest report, seen by the Financial Times, shows that deposits on new properties have dropped below those recorded in 2008, the nadir of the market. The HBF declined to comment. The chief executive of one of the UK’s largest housebuilders said the data were “worrying, highly significant and consistent with a falling market”....

Posted by shoebox @ 11:41 PM 0 Comments

Real UK House Prices Against GDP Growth

The Market Oracle: UK House Prices and GDP Growth Trends Analysis

Whilst many methods have been utilised for determining future housing market price trends such as average earnings, mortgage interest rates, currency valuations, real terms inflation adjusted valuations, comparison against other global housing markets and real disposable earnings, this analysis seeks to add real UK housing market analysis against UK GDP growth. The assumption here is that the value of assets should over the long-run increase in inline with a countries actual economic growth rate as measured by gross domestic product.

Posted by nadeem walayat @ 05:15 PM 0 Comments

Bring it on baby

Reuters: Housing double-dip threatens banks

Another dip in U.S. housing looks likely, bringing with it difficulties for banks and for their government guarantors. What is perhaps worse: having chucked money at supporting asset markets in order to support banks the past two years, the policy options for handling another housing downturn and banking crisis would be greatly circumscribed. If you think the debate about more fiscal stimulus is heated, wait until you see the venom which the prospect of another housing and banking bailout brings.

Posted by mark @ 02:07 PM 3 Comments

Manchester Police trying to devalue local property

Manchester evening news: Police officers seize high-powered sports car - then crash it into garden wall

But the officers ended up ploughing the turbo-charged, four-wheel drive car into the gardens of two luxury homes

Posted by mark @ 01:48 PM 8 Comments

Meanwhile... over in Ireland...

Belfast Telegraph: Property crash? Man puts four-bedroom house for sale with €1 starting price

"It would have been worth €320,000 at the height of the boom, but the collapse in the economy has wrecked his plans to sell or let it"

Posted by sid public @ 01:28 PM 4 Comments

Who will follow? What effect on the economy?

Bbc: HSBC threatens to move headquarters away from London

HSBC may move from London if the UK government decides to break up big banks, a senior executive has said. Stuart Gulliver, head of the Canary Wharf-based bank's investment banking division, made the warning at a banking conference.

Posted by mark @ 12:00 PM 20 Comments

Get of my land!!!!

Grauniad: With land value tax, Labour is getting it right

"Andy Burnham's radical idea could replace council tax, stamp duty and inheritance tax, and raise more than all three combined"

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 11:42 AM 22 Comments

Ouch thats a lot of pocket change for arnie

La times: Value of California's properties falls 1.8% to $4.4 trillion

The Golden State's real estate market lost a bit more of its luster as the total value of California's properties fell for the second year in a row — and for the second time since records were first kept in 1933 at the depths of the Great Depression. The value of all types of properties fell 1.8% this year to $4.4 trillion, the California Board of Equalization reported Thursday. The total value fell 2.4% last year.

Posted by mark @ 11:21 AM 0 Comments

I should be so unlucky, unlucky, unlucky

Daily mail: Sell her flat? She should be so lucky! Kylie Minogue is selling her home at a knockdown price

The maisonette, situated on the top two floors of a mansion block, was placed on the market for £4.5million earlier this summer. However, with no takers by the beginning of this month, the price was reduced by £500,000 on Wednesday afternoon. It is now on sale for £3,950,000 – a reduction of more than 12 per cent.

Posted by mark @ 10:58 AM 2 Comments

Quick! Get the printing press fired up, house prices are falling! Investors’ QE concern rises

Investors gave warning on Thursday that the Bank of England might be forced to pump more money into the economy as fears grew of a double-dip recession. A string of weaker-than-expected figures, including Nationwide’s data on house prices on Thursday and a survey of construction activity, has increased the possibility of a relaunch of quantitative easing, the buying of government bonds to stimulate the ailing UK economy.

Posted by khards @ 10:32 AM 11 Comments

Why the argument over 'too big to fail' could be too big to lose

The Daily Telegraph: Why the argument over 'too big to fail' could be too big to lose

I recommend HPC contributors have a read on Wikipedia of the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act which is already law. It is all news to me. Mortgage originators (Title XIV) must make a good-faith effort to ensure that the mortgagee will be able to repay the loan. If this effort was not made it can be used as a defense against foreclosure. They seem to be well ahead of us as we are still in 'consultation' and half of UK mortgages granted are still liar loans.

Posted by monty032 @ 09:21 AM 1 Comments we come!

Herald Scotland: House Price Crash on the Way

Experts have warned of a property prices slump, with some predicting values to plummet by at least 10% by the end of next year. The stark forecast comes after Nationwide, the second-biggest lender in the UK, reported a second consecutive monthly drop in the value of property for the first time since February 2009.

Posted by magnaman @ 07:54 AM 14 Comments

Ladder or snake?

Independent: How to get on the property ladder...finally

Many first-time buyers will be in their forties before they get on the property ladder. Thankfully, there are ways to get there sooner. It was once a cliché but now it is a truism – it has never been more difficult for first-time buyers to get on to the housing ladder. The problem for many is not today's low mortgage payments but lenders' demands for deposits of 20%-plus. But there is help available, if you know where to look. Shared-ownership schemes, Homebuy direct, New-build home buy, Rent to home buy, Right to buy, Social home buy, and the rest. [NB. Homebuy Direct looks like a government bung, does anybody know more about it or know anybody who has used it?]

Posted by drewster @ 01:15 AM 5 Comments

Rarely has there been a better example of the crying need for LVT

Guardian: Battersea Power Station: the power of dreams

Battersea Power Station is to be demerged from the loss-making Irish property company that now owns it, and floated on the Aim market. There have been many false starts on the redevelopment of the station over the years. 1987: A consortium announced plans to convert the building into a Disney-style leisure complex. 1990, the proposal was changed to a mixture of offices, shops and a hotel. 2001: A design for a permanent performance home for the Cirque du Soleil was granted planning approval. 2005: A proposed redevelopment as an entertainment and leisure destination containing bars, restaurants, cinemas and retail outlets. 2008: A firm of Irish developers wanted to relaunch the famous site as a power station. 2009: Another year, another redevelopment plan. 2010: Still nothing.

Posted by drewster @ 01:01 AM 1 Comments

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Will house prices fall further?

The Daily Telegraph: Will house prices fall further?

Fears of a second house price crash. All we've seen recently is a mild 22.6% correction followed by a 9.6% sucker rally. The real crash that will take us down to well below the long-term average PE, as in the mid-1990s, is still to come. That's how long-term averages are formed. Unless you think it's all different this time.

Posted by monty032 @ 10:24 PM 5 Comments

Propping up house prices isn't useless...

Guardian: Home truths for complacent economists's good for the banks (and of course we need a financial system - read "THIS financial system" - don't we?). US tax credits pulled forward housing demand, which of course is slumping with the ending of the credits. What was achieved by the credits? Well, they enabled sellers to get a higher price, courtesy of the taxpayer. This was good for the banks holding the mortgages that otherwise would have been underwater. But it also meant that buyers paid more than they otherwise would, so they'll lose when they sell. And what about the banks etc. who issued those new mortgages? Not to worry, they're insured by Fannie/Freddie/Taxpayer. Is the government propping up the market primarily for banks or for homeowners? I think it's the former. (Article ends with a bleak outlook for the economy.)

Posted by icarus @ 10:14 PM 1 Comments

Express yesterday said "Family home prices rise £91 per day"

Daily Mail: Fresh fears for property market as average house house price slumped by £2,850 in August

House prices are plunging by more than £90 a day amid fears that Britain is heading into a double-dip housing recession. In August, the value of the typical home has slumped by nearly £2,850 to an average price of £166,507. The figures, from the Nationwide, the country's biggest building society, show average prices dropped 0.9 per cent last month, following a -0.5 per cent fall in July. Many economists suspect this is the start of a serious slump with the most pessimistic predicting prices could fall by 20 per cent over the next couple of years.

Posted by jack c @ 10:11 PM 0 Comments

Dramatic fall in housebuilder index to 10 month low - they know no-one can afford them

Guardian: Construction industry survey reveals signs of sudden downturn

Britain's construction industry grew at its slowest pace for six months in August after a decline in housebuilding, according to a key report on the sector. A survey of purchasing managers showed the construction sector lost momentum after homebuilders scaled down work and revealed that new orders for the next three months have slumped.

Posted by eviledna @ 08:41 PM 0 Comments

An attempt to rig the market?

Channel 4 News: Councils abandon plans for 100,000 new homes

The Coalition's answer to falling house prices is to try and reduce housebuilding. Factor in this and the NIMBY's charter of 90% approval needed for new homes and it's clear they'll do anything to try and keep houseprices high and the VIs content. (This is on Channel 4 News now and is worth watching - if only to see Jon Snow's autocue foul up!)

Posted by afcone @ 07:03 PM 0 Comments

Not bad if you're going for a liar loan

Yahoo: Phoney beggar earned £23,000 a year plus benefits

With his £4,000-a-year benefits, the fake beggar made a total income of £27,000 - more than the average nurse, teacher or soldier. Last night a spokeswoman for the TaxPayers' Alliance said: "It's a disgrace that he's only received a slap on the wrist for claiming benefits on top of his illegal income. Charlatans like this leave us all worse off." Mr Terry told press outside the court hearing that: "I was never an aggressive beggar like the ones you see clutching on to a bottle of cider. People will tell you I was polite and never gave them any hassle."

Posted by crash n burn @ 05:33 PM 11 Comments

This looks and sounds familiar

BBC: Mortgages fuel Brazilian housing boom

There is music, drinks, food and smart people, but this is not an ordinary party; it is the launch of yet another real estate development in Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city. Construction of the properties that are up for sale has not yet started and buyers will not get into their new homes for another two years, yet the competition for the best spots is fierce. When a customer decides to buy, the estate agent has to rush through all the relevant the documents before a competitor closes the deal. "Last night I didn't have any sleep because we spent all night closing deals," says sales supervisor Thiago Davidian. "My team sold more than 50 units yesterday and more are going as we speak."

Posted by jack c @ 03:37 PM 15 Comments

The axe is falling!

Guardian: Standard LIfe to Axe 600 Jobs

I fear for the UK economy. It seems very much like the phase two I and many others predicted is begining. The government stimulus, creation of public sector jobs, cheaper money than the original cheaper money and gimmick schemes like car scrappage and reduced VAT have been coupled with renewed Conlib cuts to send the economy right into reverse - where it was going before the stimulus came in.

Posted by brickormortis @ 03:26 PM 3 Comments

Useful summary of the main market numbers for last month

Housing Expert: How was July for you?

Another useful summary of the numbers of homes coming onto the market, selling and comparisons with past years. Interesting stuff.

Posted by charles lister @ 02:42 PM 1 Comments

Sensible Sweden

Nytimes: Swedish Move Highlights Uneven Europe Recovery

The Swedish central bank raised its benchmark interest rate Thursday to help head off inflation as the country’s economy surges, highlighting the divergence of growth in Europe. The Swedish Riksbank raised the benchmark rate, known as the repo rate, to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent. It had been raised from a record low of 0.25 percent in July.

Posted by mark @ 12:30 PM 2 Comments

This will drive houseprices up

Yahoo / reuters: Royal Bank of Scotland to cut 3,500 jobs in UK

"The news that the Royal Bank of Scotland is to cut another 3,500 staff from across the UK is a horror story," Rob MacGregor, national officer at the Unite trade union, said in a statement. Since 2009, RBS has axed more than 20,000 jobs. The latest cuts come on top of a decision in May to shed 2,600 posts at RBS's insurance and British retail banking operations.

Posted by mark @ 12:25 PM 11 Comments

Depends on who you believe about average salary

Yahoo / telegraph: Britons to lose equivalent of average salary off home

Britons will lose the equivalent of a typical annual salary off the value of their home by the end of next year, new figures reveal. Economist warn the gloomy economic outlook and the reluctance of banks to lend money will push prices even lower, leading to a second house price crash.

Posted by mark @ 11:08 AM 12 Comments

Economists out of their depth as economy sinks

Counterpunch: Death by globalism

Naval-gazing economists who can't (or won't) see the elephants in the room.

Posted by icarus @ 09:48 AM 5 Comments

Beeb finally acknowledges the inevitable

BBC news: House prices fall again in August

In a short and desultory article, the beeb finally acknowledges that property is not a one-way-bet. They'll be desperately hoping that the Halifax figures say something different.

Posted by paul @ 08:17 AM 11 Comments

Impossible! Who didn't make £91 a day?

Bloomberg: U.K. House Prices Fall Most in Six Months as Supply of Property Increases

U.K. house prices fell the most in six months in August as increased supply of property gave buyers more bargaining power, Nationwide Building Society said.

Posted by estrader @ 07:43 AM 1 Comments

August HP Index

Nationwide: -0.9% MoM +3.9% YoY

This plateau isn't very flat

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 07:06 AM 52 Comments

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

This is just for London - multiply across the country....

Evening Standard: Housing benefit cutbacks will cost thousands of Londoners £22 a week

More than 150,000 Londoners will each lose £22 a week in the Coalition's housing benefit cutbacks. Government figures show all claimants in London's private rented sector will be worse off, including some disabled people and pensioners. The full impact of the four-year housing benefit shake-up, starting next year, is likely to be far greater — figures released so far do not include the bigger social housing sector. The July Budget imposed a £400-a-week cap on [housing benefit] claims plus strict maximums for every local area. Detailed tables from the Department for Work and Pensions now show about 159,370 tenants in London will lose an average of £22 a week, while eight out of 10 will lose more than £10 a week.

Posted by drewster @ 09:03 PM 10 Comments

Go ahead and defraud your fellow taxpayers; all you'll get is a slap on the wrist

BBC News: Self-styled 'knight' evicted from London council flat

A self-styled knight has been evicted from a council flat in north London after an investigation found he owned four homes across England. "Sir" Barry Brooks, 47, was ordered to leave the two-bedroomed property in Primrose Hill after breaking his tenancy agreement, Camden Council said. Mr Brooks, who bought his "knighthood" online, moved into the flat in 1998. He was ordered to pay rent arrears of £3,182 and costs of about £9,500 at a county court hearing in June. The council said Mr Brooks had been allocated the flat after telling officials he was homeless. Suspicions were raised when council officers saw two Jaguar cars, a gold XKR sport and a silver XJS, with personalised number plates parked outside a detached property in Bromley, south-east London.

Posted by drewster @ 08:48 PM 0 Comments

Excuse of the month - computer says no

Mortgagestrategy: Automated lending systems are holding back housing market

The housing market is being held back due to lenders’ reliance on automated systems, Aldermore research shows. In a survey of 200 mortgage brokers were asked what percentage of mortgage enquiries had been declined over the past six months because their clients did not achieve a sufficiently high credit score. A massive 88% of brokers confirmed clients were regularly declined by lenders’ automated credit scoring systems.

Posted by jack c @ 05:14 PM 12 Comments

Who's Making Money in FX?

Index Universe: Where's the Money in Forex?

World FX markets are seeing record turnover levels, says today's FT. But does part of the volume reflect speculative trading activity that puts the credit bubble in the shade? And what to premier league football shirts have to do with all this?

Posted by paul amery @ 01:56 PM 3 Comments

Funny how this comes after the massive growth they posted

Yahoo / afp: Merkel cabinet approves German spending cuts

Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet signed off Wednesday on a hefty austerity package that critics say will hit the poorest hardest and could endanger Germany's recovery. The 80-billion-euro (102-billion-dollar) package of spending cuts over the period 2011 to 2014 include big cuts in unemployment and parental leave benefits. Ministers were told to tighten their belts across the board, including in military spending, with Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg proposing a sharp cut in the size of the Bundeswehr and doing away with conscription.

Posted by mark @ 12:38 PM 1 Comments

Hooray! We can all become wealthy without working! Especially if you were wealthy to start with!


Homeowners with family properties have seen the value of their houses rise by around £91 a day during the past year, research has indicated. The value of detached homes increased by 13% during the year to the end of June, to stand at an average of £299,295, according to Halifax. The group said the price rise had outperformed all other property types, which saw price gains of between 8% and 9% during the same period. Suren Thiru, Halifax housing economist, said: "... it is notable that detached homes have seen the largest average price rises. Such properties are likely to have benefited from greater demand from those buuyer groups currently most able to enter the housing market."

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 12:11 PM 29 Comments

VI's fight back after the bad news yesterday

MSN: Family home prices 'rise £91 a day'

Homeowners with family properties have seen the value of their houses rise by around £91 a day during the past year, research has indicated.

Posted by estrader @ 12:08 PM 0 Comments

Oh another reason for house prices to drop

Daily mail: Home loan squeeze leaves self-employed stranded

Millions of self-employed people could be shut out of the property market because banks are using their lowest annual income to decide if they can afford a mortgage. Using the lowest rather than the average income over three years can have disastrous consequences, as the incomes of many self-employed people can vary hugely — or they might have had one particularly bad year. The restrictions could leave them unable to find a new mortgage or buy a new home.

Posted by mark @ 11:51 AM 6 Comments

No positive spin on mortgage data here

City AM: Weak housing loans point to a price slump

Every little helps!

Posted by sceneclub68 @ 11:14 AM 0 Comments

The old have never had it so good

Telegraph: The Boomers' bonanza has left precious little for the rest of us

While every generation thinks it has things uniquely bad, today's teenagers have the statistics to back it up. Over the past few decades, young people have been thoroughly ripped off. Those born after Margaret Thatcher's arrival in Downing Street have things unutterably worse than their parents. With houses going so dear, the "jilted generation" are having to spend more of their income on rent than at any time in the past 30 years. And in terms of employment, things aren't much better. Even during the boom years, young people's wages stagnated. Many couldn't even find a stable job in the first place: among those aged between 18 and 24, the jobless rate is nearly one in five.

Posted by drewster @ 09:50 AM 28 Comments

The picture accompanying the article is brilliant.

Metro: Double dip fears for UK house prices

Net lending totalled just £86million during July – a steep fall from June’s £518million, according to the Bank of England. The number of mortgages approved for buying a home edged ahead slightly to 48,722, well down on the levels of more than 100,000 a month seen in the housing boom. Analyst Andrew Goodwin said: ‘This morning’s figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.’ Net lending, which strips out loans which have been repaid or redeemed, was the second lowest figure since Bank records began in 1993, although there have also been two months when the figure was negative.

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 07:55 AM 7 Comments

UK losing first time buyers signals housing crash

ArabianMoney: First time buyers desert UK housing market

Any market that loses its first time buyers is in trouble. But that is what has happened in UK housing this summer. I was relieved to hear my niece Caroline and her finance Jamues have decided not to buy, and have rented a nice little place to save more for their deposit.Indeed, this reminds me of 1990 and a warning I got then from Mike Robinson, the late and extremely successful MD of Wilson Connolly, then a large housebuilder.

Posted by peter cooper @ 07:34 AM 1 Comments

Just reminded me - I've run out of bog paper!

Daily Express: HOUSE PRICES UP £91 A DAY

This VI ramping just makes me sick. House prices are heading south - so what do they do - ramp the last ten years. Yet they finish the article quoting significant falls. I can't work out is this propaganda is on the front page or not.

Posted by darren @ 12:18 AM 0 Comments

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