Friday, September 3, 2010
HPC….here we come!
House Price Crash on the Way
Experts have warned of a property prices slump, with some predicting values to plummet by at least 10% by the end of next year. The stark forecast comes after Nationwide, the second-biggest lender in the UK, reported a second consecutive monthly drop in the value of property for the first time since February 2009.
Posted by magnaman @ 07:54 AM (1694 views)
14 thoughts on “HPC….here we come!”
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Pyracantha says:
I know someone who has been stubbornly stating the “houses only go up” line. They are now looking at having to sell their family home (as income has dropped) and move to a not-so-nice area. When we STR-ed he was very sceptical, and recently even tried to say the media articles only applied to England, not Scotland. Well here’s the news story I have been waiting for. People must have such short memories, it’s not that long ago that the Herald was all for HPI. As for EA’s now saying a correction was overdue… The hypocrisy is breathtaking.
Crunchy says:
“The tumble is widely believed to be fuelled by a flood of properties entering the market as homeowners set the wheels in motion to move house.”
10% is considered a tumble? Now moving house equals a crash? Too much doublespeak. Where have all the straight talkers gone?
sibley's b'stard child says:
“Experts have warned of a property prices slump, with some predicting values to plummet by at least 10% by the end of next year”.
Nice to see the word ‘experts’ in this context; adds a certain validity to the claims. Still, more of the same reporting can only due the HPC cause justice. A couple of my homeowner colleagues were even mentioning that houseprices were falling; I wisely kept my counsel.
Crunchy says:
1. sibley’s b’stard child said…I wisely kept my counsel.
Keeping you counsel flat is a good idea, innit dude, zerow friksion.
techieman says:
sbc – no actually i disagree with putting any credibility on these “experts”. Few forecast the 1st phase – even fewer the bounce – so why anyone would listen to them is beyond me. if someone had forecast accurately both phases, then there would be some credibility.
I have always said it was a shame that JD forecast continued falls in HPs – even though – on here he publicly got the March 09 bottom in the stock markets.
sibley's b'stard child says:
No, I don’t mean credibility in the experts per se; but if public sentiment is to be influenced to ‘our way of thinking’ then articles like these can only help facilitate the ‘Correction mk2’.
And, in fairness (although this may be a reflection of my economic shortcomings), the engineered DCB was an all-mighty anomaly, no?
sibley's b'stard child says:
@ 4 Crunchy,
Innit doh bruv, lolz. I can has subzidized houzing.
techieman says:
“the engineered DCB was an all-mighty anomaly” perhaps but it could have been forecast. And should have been by anyone who purported to be an “expert”. or should that be “guesser”?
techieman says:
in any case if everyone believed the experts – then there wouldnt have been a DCB, based on what you are saying now – or have i missed the point?!
sibley's b'stard child says:
Techie, I think we’re talking at cross-purposes. All i’m alluding to is the well-documented power of mass media to influence public opinion. You’re referring to the credibility of these ‘experts’ (guessers probably being more appropriate).
techieman says:
well my point was if they influenced public opinion that much, then why would we have had a dcb – when they were all saying we are going to have more falls? i think they influence some of the public some of the time – but after the public (market) has already started the move.
so they dont see the turning points – they just extrapolate moves AFTER them. to that extent yes that may cause some herding.
sibley's b'stard child says:
“so they dont see the turning points – they just extrapolate moves AFTER them. to that extent yes that may cause some herding.”
Exactly techie, that’s what i’m referring to and all I care about quite frankly. Listen, i’m simply a layman; not a speculator, trader, gold-bug or whatever. All I want is a modest two-up/two-down for my family which won’t require me to enter a Faustian pact to do so. By and large, the media have been complicit in maintaining the bubble so I welcome any article which may influence the wider populace (of which the HPC membership is in no way representative of) to the contrary. In this context, FP was a bloody effective ambassador for HPC as he gave a voice to the priced-out against a barrage of VI-laden boll*cks. Whether his predictions were erroneous (in hindsight) is irrelevant as far as i’m concerned.
Crunchy says:
10. sibley’s b’stard child
I have been trying with techie for some time now. He doesn’t get it.
techieman says:
just to clarify – i really wasnt having a go at jd. i think he knew that if the stockmarkets were going to bounce it was likely that the housing market would too. i just think either he thought the bounce would be small, or he didnt want to tempt fate. either way he would have been given true guru status had he said there would be a bounce. then he would have had more folowers at the turn which would have helped, the market fall more.
that is the shame i think. anyway i suppose its marginal what effect he would have had