Wednesday, September 29, 2010

For Hash Browne

HOUSE PRICES RISING BUT NORTH-SOUTH GAP IS WIDER

HOUSE prices defied expectations and rose last month to their highest level for two years, statistics showed yesterday. The 0.3 per cent jump reported by the Land Registry contradicts a run of grim data about the health of the market and was greeted with relief by experts.

Posted by little professor @ 02:44 AM (2765 views)
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27 thoughts on “For Hash Browne

  • It fully supports the time lag we experience from land registry. Next month will be negative – for sure!

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  • Slartibartfast says:

    Daily Express Ratings

    Content: Awful (10 votes)
    Political Bias: Conservative (10 votes)
    Credibility: Very Low (9 votes)

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  • slartibartfast says:

    Daily Express Ratings

    Content: Awful (10 votes)
    Political Bias: Conservative (10 votes)
    Credibility: Very Low (9 votes)

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  • Greater by relief by experts.

    ‘Experts’ who have yet figured out this indecise is a lagging indicator.

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  • Oh I hate predictive text.

    ‘greeted’ with relief by experts.

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  • Closing the tag.

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  • Closing the tag.

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  • And guess who’s cheering the news on in the comments section…

    GREAT HEADLINES.
    29.09.10, 12:40am

    Only a handful of people want house prices to fall. The majority of working people will greet this latest news with a happy face this morning. I think it shows once and for all that the UK is back on track. Lets hope they continue to rise.

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  • experts = ramping VI scum

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  • Reporting a nationally released housing statistic = ramping VI scum!

    How do you arrive at that conclusion then?

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  • smugdog, right to leech didn’t mention anything about housing statistics. You made that bit up. He referred to experts. often known as vested interests disguising themselves as experts.

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  • “was greeted with relief by experts”????????

    “was greeted with much hilarity by those doomsters over at HPC who point out that HMLR data merely restates what Nationwide told us three months ago” more like.

    @ PhD, keep updatin’ your fine spreadsheet!

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  • Come on guys. There’s nothing wrong with your logic – it’s undeniably true that LR figures lag nationwide/halifax by around 3 months – but if this showed a 0.3% drop I can guarantee we would all be leaping on it with glee rather than writing it off.

    The Express is irritating, but they printed headlines like this all the way through the 2008 crash, and they will continue to do so every time any one of the surveys shows a monthly rise. Anyone remember the headline they printed after about eight months of consecutive falls last time which took the annual rise to 0.1% – “House Prices Still On the Up”!

    My point is we don’t do ourselves any favours by just dismissing every survey we don’t like as irrelevant or flawed.

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  • This is great! It will simply tempt more sellers back into the market, creating more over-supply and driving prices down further and faster.

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  • pletehar – nope dont agree with that. Say If i am trying to sell my house now, would i be interested in the Nationwide indexes to sell it or the Land Reg?

    And because it lags , there have been times when the Land Reg was going down and the nationwide going up. So as a seller then should i use the Land Reg to base my sale price or nationwide?

    Since nationwide and halifax are on a similar base then they should be compared and contrasted, but phd in bubbles graph says it all really.

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  • I didn’t intend to start a debate on one survey vs another – that’s been done to death and I think fair to say they all have their ups, downs and foibles. No question that the LR figures are much more of a lagging indicator than others. All I was saying was that it reflects poorly on this site and its users if we continue to trumpet every survey which shows a decline and dismiss every one which shows an increase.

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  • @ pelethar, that is why we ought to just concentrate on Nationwide, which all things considered is the “best” index.

    And of course, what any individual cares about is prices in his or her area, in some places prices are rising and in others they are falling.

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  • …if only everything was as predictable as the Express…

    …for my next prediction… Nationwide will show prices “easing” by 1.2% and a tiny article will be hidden deep within the Express Money pages…

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  • Correct MW, the figures only give a broad indication. My area grips on to peak prices for dear death.

    Most have no intention of selling and thank Merv very much for the stacks of cash that he has presented them with.

    It only matters in your own locality and the area you wish to eventually buy. Local knowledge is king.

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  • @17 techieman – Have you or PhD got a link to this graph?

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  • @alan_540
    If you click on the picture of the Express front page that LP has posted it will take you to the thread with it on. I haven’t updated it with the latest LR figure yet.

    I think the nationwide should be out tomorrow. Would a third month of falls be counted as a trend?

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  • Thanks PhD

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  • That doesn’t link to another thread, it’s on the Express website. Yes, I think a trend is beginning to emerge… My prediction is bottom of the market by 2018 which gives my kids plenty of time to save up a deposit with any luck.

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  • alan_540
    It links to the thread on my browser – I’ve pasted it again below.
    2015-2017ish was the guess I came up with for the bottom a couple of years ago, although the last few years might be a stagnation in nominal prices with slow erosion against inflation. I still think there’s some decent nominal falls that need to take place over the next couple of years though.

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  • I agree with that, thanks for posting your graph, it certainly shows all three indices are pretty much in agreement.

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  • @ smugdog – “Most have no intention of selling”

    How do you know this? Price rises *and* price falls will spur people into action. I don’t know what the intention is of those in my area but I haven’t gone knocking door to door to find out…is this what you did?

    I think most people in Southern England have no intention of buying.

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