Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Bias moi??? :)

Prechter Reiterrates Call For Dow 1,000, Even As Surging Gold And Plunging Dollar Leave Much Credibility To Be Desired

"Prechter's call for a surging dollar (ahem), for a plunge in gold (ahem, ahem), and for a rout in stocks, has left quite a few investors with some unpleasant margin calls." short narrative and a video with the man himself.... judge for yourselves.

Posted by techieman @ 06:09 PM (2067 views)
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25 thoughts on “Bias moi??? :)

  • general congreve says:

    Has anyone ever seen Prechter and RealistBear in the same room?

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  • Robert Pretcher predicting a drop in the Dow to 1000 on the same day as Jeffrey Hirsch tells us of a Dow `Super Boom’ to Drive the Average to 38,820 (www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-27/dow-super-boom-will-drive-average-to-38-820-stock-trader-s-almanac-says.html)

    A fair bit of distance between these two predictions – I wonder what sold 2 rent 1 would say on this topic at the moment?

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  • Funny how Prechter is always right after the fact…..

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  • hpw – separated at birth 😉 ? Sorry couldn’t resist that one!

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  • hpw – separated at birth 😉 ? Sorry couldn’t resist that one!

    Grow up.

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  • I’ll get the handbags ready – just make sure you are both 20 paces apart (LOL)

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  • Jack – Neely, another Elliottician has forecast Dow 100,000 after “this” period of falls. His timescale is – i think around 2020. So you pays your money and takes your choice.

    Actually to be fair to Prechter, he did forecast the bottom of the 2009 falls in the stock market (within a couple of weeks or so), and he did forecast dow around 10,000 then. And S&P back to 1000 to 1100 [which was pretty good considering the market was at 666 and the world and his mate were forecasting the end of the world]. He has also been pretty good on the USD. The reporter is being a little unfair actually since Prechter did advise to get out of the greenback but now to get back in.

    But yes i would be first to acknowledge that he has completely f*cked up his view on the precious metals.

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  • hpw – you really take yourself far too seriously… it was a joke! Hence the wink! jeez get over yourself.

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  • Hang on a minute I havent called time on round one yet – get back in your seats and wait for the bell and round 2 (techie you are docked a point)

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  • hpw – you really take yourself far too seriously… it was a joke! Hence the wink! jeez get over yourself.

    You mean like you, in your marathon three/four post rants. Yeah right.

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  • Right lads – here we go – Round 3

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  • 🙂 hpw the prosecution rests.

    jack i have thrown in the towel already…. i actually left the playground and aquired a sense of humour about 20 years ago.

    to be fair though you got me yesterday : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2010/09/blog-catalyst-for-higher-prices-as-sterling-is-weakened-to-give-the-false-impression-of-hpi-30430.php

    by leaving me stranded with my final comment….. double or quits?

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  • Time out (ref’s final decision) lets call it a draw and move on………….to more sensible debate.

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  • PE ratios on the S&P500 at nearly 21x (using Robert Schiller’s PE10) – Was 666 the final low? Are we to believe that this is the new norm?
    Sounds like a familiar story with HPC – we have got to get used to paying much more for the same things from now on, so are we comfortable with this?

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  • Jack – sounds good to me!

    i think it would be good for hpw to listen to what merve says re inflation as i posted above. Would be interested in his and Paul’s comments. And no im really not taking the p1ss then either. Still who am i to suggest hpw does anything.

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  • Have followed the EWI take on precious metals over a number of months. For several months they were very non committal; and even now are pretty tentative.

    ZH has an above quota level of goldbugs who think it makes them contrarian. It doesn’t and it reduces much of the discussion to level of a rowdy pub at 10pm on a Saturday night. Please lets not head in that direction please.

    It is easy and cheap to ridicule Prechter just now. With all the POMO and other manipulation going on: anyone who has gotten this bit of timing perhaps invites accusations of political inside knowledge more than market insight.

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  • sureseam – i did not, but was going to keep my own counsel, that EWI show the correlation between 95% bulls and short term peaks on silver . Of couse short term peaks are different to the peak, but interesting nonetheless.

    Talking of silver i also saw this from Rick. http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/09/silver%E2%80%99s-top-at-21-645-bears-close-watching/

    might be worth a look. Rick actually is pretty good. A bit of background i bought Lindsay’s Trident [http://www.amazon.com/Trident-Trading-Strategy-Charles-Lindsay/dp/0930233484] book years ago, it is simple and may be of interest. Toward the end that book contains some esoteric formulas for predicting tomorrows high and low based on various inputs (sort of sophisticated pivot levels). To be honest it was all beyond me (it turns out i was not alone since it seems like it was a bit of barry bullsh1ting).

    Anyway, to see if anyone had got to grips with the trident, (and the formula) i periodically did a search on the web for this. Lo and behold Rick has a so-called hidden pivot method using the trident as the bedrock of his system.

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  • techie @ 17
    Look, I enjoy banter along with a robust exchange of ideas – hopefully some of which are fresh or lateral. On which note I will follow up on Trident – a genuine thanks for the tip.

    The whole ZH pseudo contrarian performance risks being self-aggrandising nonsense. Real contrarians think and research independently, and speak rarely. Having said that ZH is featuring a Hugh Hendry interview just now.

    Like a few others I am minding the markets until we can buy a real home in a sensible way. Approximity graphs indicate a little further to go in the arbitrage between gold and house prices but how that actually plays out remains to be seen. My recent comments might be taken to imply that I am anti precious metals; not so at all. However I respect their capability to blow holes in ones finances.

    Bob Prechter is an easy target at this point. He may be wrong however this could be a turning point and he may just be a bit early.

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  • general congreve says:

    @16 – Big respect to the ZH crew – GOLD B1TCHEZZZ!!!

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  • Sureseam: “Bob Prechter is an easy target at this point. He may be wrong however this could be a turning point and he may just be a bit early.”

    actually http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/12/blog-printing-money-always-creates-inflationor-does-it-27079.php – my description and…..

    mine at 18 … particularly this (btw MG = Mountain Goat) :

    “The reason i lean toward P is for one thing he told everyone to get short of equities (or get out if you are not involved) before the big falls in 2008. He also then advised in 2009 to get out of shorts – potentially to buy shares, although he was suggesting a bounce back to be fair he had a range of probabilities as to the extent of the rise back. Now (since about August) he has advised people to go back to being short. I have always said he is usually a bit early. You may have come across me warning MG on that”

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  • Sureseam – basically i posted this to show that i am not biased toward Mr P, or actually anyone for that matter. I listen to lots of people but only a few make sense. Keen and Prechter are my personal favourites but i quite like schiff too (even though his views on gold and the dollar are opposite to mr p). I also like to read the daneric blog, and for entertainment if nothing else christian at perfectstockalert.com.

    Like you i like Lara too at EWforex and EWStockmarket. Everyone is great and everyone is a fool, but thats markets for you. At the moment i would agree with your position on POMO and the shenanigans of the PPT, that it aint over till its over. Mr P is often early but really all he is saying is stay safe, and dont buy junk bonds. He says this is the next bubble that will ruin investors.

    The first was the tech bubble (he warned but was a bit early there), next the Real estate bubble (they got that pretty spot on) then the general stockmarket bubble (done good on that too as described – at least initially) and now this (muni and corporate debt) bubble.

    The strange thing is alot of his charts are in so-called “real money” – i.e. gold even though he is not a gold bug. He was a gold bug when gold was about $250…. but is baulking (at least at buying more) at $1300. Cant really say i blame him!

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  • For what it’s worth I bought the recent gold breakout at $1265 but expect a correction back down to that level in the next couple of weeks if it is to go higher in the longer term. Corrections often go back to the point of breakout/breakdown, so for example today we should revisit $1300. So far gold is within long term trend lines so not in a blowoff/bubble or whatever you want to call it. If instead gold and silver continue in a straight line for a few more weeks we are looking at a blowoff which will result in a major correction down longer term.

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  • morning MG – i think a good contrarian indicator is when everyone expects gold to go to the moon – if a blow off, a few $50 – $100 days should do it!

    As for the Euro / USD – so much for the battle around 133.33!!! Still i am quite happy with this move for the “better place to sell” reason and the fact i am medium long the Euro since the break of that prior high.

    As for the strockmarkets, i am having a macho king canute moment :). Still the waves are just about to lap round my feet, if they get up to my waist…. then i will reconsider whether i need a snorkel an aqualung or a walk back to the beach hut!

    Daneric’s count of the dollar looks good, as does Lara (although she has adjusted it now from before, when it just looked a bit forced to me – she was calling A as the end of 2 and B as the start of 3) they differ slightly with Dan’s wave 1 high of prior degree holding with Lara’s count going further into 2 of prior degree. Dollar bears will also be chomping at the bit and declaring the dollar finito, before the end of this move.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TKJzV0ZBZHI/AAAAAAAAHqA/aEJUjcUimdQ/s1600/dollar.png
    http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/cli.usdinx28sep10daily.jpg

    Lara’s video is also quite good : http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/

    The problem is that because P3 in any move is the biggest, people dont want to miss it, which is of course why its no surprise that the market shakes everybody out first. What a wonderful world we live in!

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  • Hi TM. Goodluck holding out. Tough trying to make money either way at the moment, very choppy.

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