Tuesday, September 28, 2010

+0.3% MoM +6.7% YoY

August Index

"August's monthly house price change of 0.3 per cent is the fifth month in a row in which the movement has been positive. It is, however, a fall from last month's figure. This changes the average property value in England and Wales to £167,423."

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 11:08 AM (5267 views)
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26 thoughts on “+0.3% MoM +6.7% YoY

  • It corresponds to the peak of the Nationwide index if a three month time lag is applied.

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  • If this figure had even looked like it was going to go negative, there would have been tons of QE.

    Next stop – currency crash.

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  • Guaranteed to be front page news in the EXPRESS tomorrow!

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  • Bang goes the theory. Now, back to the graph, where do we go from here………

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  • sibley's b'stard child says:

    I’ve lost all objectivity now; am I supposed to be happy or disappointed? As HPW says, even if HPC v.2 commences, they’ll just rig the game further.

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  • 2. hpwatcher said…”If this figure had even looked like it was going to go negative, there would have been tons of QE.

    Next stop – currency crash”

    Time for the Conservative gamblers to hedge some Sterling perhaps. Hedge funds can be nasty buggers.

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  • @smugdog
    Here’s a graph for you. I did it a couple of weeks ago and it shows the nationwide, halifax and land registry nominal prices as a percentage of their peak. The land registry has had a 3-month lag applied to take into account the fact that it represents sales that were agreed 3 months ago. The nationwide and land registry track each other well, but the halifax appears to have become less accurate. The august increase in the land registry appears to track the peak in the Nationwide, so nothing to worry about.

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  • Next stop – currency crash.

    All in good time. The US Dollar is having its time in the hurt locker right now.

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  • Smuggy dont be silly smuggy… as a professional investor in housing you must know that the Land Registry numbers lag. – as phd says

    Let me find something for you:… ah yes here we go (at this time the Land Reg numbers were going down when Nationwide were going up):

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/apr/30/house-prices-fell-march-land-registry

    “This is the second consecutive monthly fall in house prices reported by the Land Registry following a drop of 0.3% in February, however the annual rate of price growth increased to 7.5%.

    The figures contrast with those from Halifax and Nationwide, which both reported price rises in March.

    However, the Land Registry’s figures are based on completed sales, which mean they lag other indices”

    As for the lag itself – i think someone posted a chart which moved the Land Reg figures along three months which showed almost a perfect correlation with nationwide numbers (i might have that wrong though).

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  • 🙂

    Obviously my numer 8 crossed with phd’s number 7! Mr Fibble cable 1:61 and change looks good to me, backtest of trendline(s).
    By then dollar will be in the toilet and time to re-e-verse.

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  • Thanks Techie, what was I thinking.

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  • np smuggy…. we are all wrong from time to time (me as often as anyone else), takes a man to fess up though.

    Now thats not to say the next set of nationwide numbers might support the bulls, but its looking more like falls with counter-trend false dawns along the way.

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  • Breakdown by Region tells a story.

    REGION MONTH % ANNUAL %

    West Midlands +1.2 +5.5
    East Midlands +1.1 +5.4
    London +0.9 +11.4
    South East +0.9 +9.4
    Wales +0.3 +2.2
    South West -0.2 +6.4
    North East -0.4 +1.6
    North West -0.4 +1.8
    East -0.6 +6.6
    Yorkshire & The Humber -1.4 +2.6

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  • As PhD says, HMLR figures are of no interest as they just lag nationwide by three months. So it’s nice as back up confirmation of what we knew three months ago but apart from that *yawn*.

    I’m looking forward to Nationwide September figures like an unreformed junkie who’s just out of The Priory.

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  • @ mw

    Unfortunately there’s no way to quantify this from the data, but Land Reg figures will include full cash purchases (both domestic and foreign) which the Lender indices don’t. So not totally without interest.

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  • Dumb question… according to phdinbubbles graph… why didn’t the LR values trail nationwide/halifax during the dip?

    Thanks,
    Chris.

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  • Interesting for Londoners to note that K&C (-0.8), Fulhum and Hammersmith (-0.5) and City Westminster (-0.2) are all down. Camden is flat (+0.1)

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  • @techieman…

    Mr Fibble cable 1:61 and change looks good to me, backtest of trendline(s).
    By then dollar will be in the toilet and time to re-e-verse.

    So you reckon we’ll break the 1.60 level this time around? It’s high time old Sterling got a break that is for sure. I’d be a lot happier to ditch at 1.70 but I’m doubtful we’ll properly crack 1.60. That 1.70 level worked like a charm last year.

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  • well i do think we will break 1.60 but only just…. before a pullback or a c-o-t. But if i knew……. :). Flat at the moment and looking for some confirmations re dollar buying – same on Euro – which seems more interesting.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Dill 14, yes, Nationwide excludes cash sales, but “the law of big numbers” says that once you start averaging out e.g. prices, whether you take every single one or most of them, or even a truly random sample of thirty of them, the average number you get is much the same.

    Assuming that cash sales happen at similar prices to mortgage sales, or if not, they tend to happen at one end (the higher end?) the overall change (which is the important bit) is much the same.

    As it happens, Nationwide figures and HMLR figures for “average” are very similar anyway.

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  • Great graph phd!

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  • The lower DCB of the Halifax index after month 30 might be related to the fact that it is based more on the northern part of the country.

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  • I thought I’d throw this in the mix (rather post as an article) from todays FT

    North-South property price divide

    Windsor and Maidenhead is the area with the highest average property value in the country, outside of London.

    The average house price in Windsor and Maidenhead is currently £409,045, only £3,411 below the average London property price, data from Zoopla has shown.

    Average property prices in North Lincolnshire currently stand at £124,921, the lowest in the nation. Its 70 per cent less than London prices and 45 per cent below the national English average of £225,045.

    All the top 10 wealthiest housing markets are located in the south, according to Zoopla, including South Gloucestershire at £384,102, Surrey with £357,863 and Hertfordshire at £317,687.

    By contrast, the north is home to the cheapest housing markets in the country with Hartlepool at £124,949; Durham, £133,257; South Yorkshire, £127,413; and Nottinghamshire at £137,949.

    Average property prices in England as a whole remain 8.7 per cent below their peak levels of three years ago, representing an average loss in value of £21,303 over the past three years.

    Nicholas Leeming, commercial director at Zoopla, said: “In terms of both current house prices and market performance over the past three years, there is a clear north-south divide.

    “The manufacturing base of the Midlands was severely hit by the recession and heavy job losses have taken their toll on the region’s economy.

    “As the economy strengthens the housing market will likely perform best in those areas least sensitive to the upcoming public sector cuts and the property divide looks set to get even wider.”

    SOURCE http://www.ftadviser.com/FTAdviser/Mortgages/News/article/20100928/b8ef8e0c-cae3-11df-a726-00144f2af8e8/NorthSouth-property-price-divide.jsp

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  • The average house price in the UK is now utterly meaningless.

    Most areas have not fallen in line with the indexes since the 2007 peak. In reality we now can all see for ourselves, on our computers, what is actually going on in our own areas and from years of blogging here, we know the truth is the same in most parts of the UK. Years of not being able to sell a home.

    Who would want to own a house that you may never be able to sell? For many the answer will be to simply keep paying the ridiculous mortgages they took out. And how long can interest rates be kept so low?

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  • I still maintain there must be a better way of calculating price movements using Land Reg data, because they have access to the numbers every time a house changes hands. If you looked at each individual house and tracked its change over the period it was with each owner, couldn’t you tot it all up to give the actual change. Statistically, isn’t that possible?

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  • The main problem with the figures is that they are wrong

    The West Midlands cannot possibly have had a monthly increase of +1.2%, when every county and metropolitan area within it has had a smaller rise than this, with many of them negative.

    Warwickshire +0.8, Worcetershire +0.3, Herefordshire +1.0, Shropshire -0.1, Staffordshire 0.2, Birmingham -0.3, Coventry 0.0, Solihull -0.5, Sandwell 0.3, Walsall 0.3, Dudley 0.0, Wolverhampton -0.1, Wrekin 0.5, Stoke-on-Trent -1.4 (all %)

    The figures don’t add up. I wonder what else they’ve got wrong?

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