Sunday, June 6, 2010

Qe Rip

G20 shifts from stimulus to austerity in final communiqué

"The G20’s final communiqué introduced a surprise change of tone from the document produced by G20 finance ministers just six weeks ago .... The April 23 G20 communiqué supported the idea that governments should continue to support growth with stimulus until the recovery is driven by the private sector. Today’s document, though, backed the sort of immediate fiscal consolidation being planned by Mr Osborne." Looking beyond the political point scoring it seems to me that the government debt bond markets have said BOO! and G20 governments have taken fright.

Posted by mountain goat @ 12:53 PM (3844 views)
Please complete the required fields.



6 thoughts on “Qe Rip

  • The nail in the reflation coffin MG?

    Talking of which you might find Dan’s latest of interest [pic first] : http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TAraXpR7h-I/AAAAAAAAFno/M6Li-RRdwRA/s1600/spx2010.png

    , then full link:http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/06/weekend-charts-and-stuff.html#disqus_thread.

    Now its a bit of a cheat IMO because wave [iv] green should not overlap with [i], EXCEPT if there is a leading diagonal(“LD”) [as a subscriber to EWI you will have the ereader of the book – its page 40]. The point is if it is a LD then its LESS bearish than if it isnt.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mountain goat says:

    TM – the nail in the reflation coffin MG?

    Yeah the FT have this on their front page but no one else thinks it is big news. Government largess have meant all this free money is sloshing around for banks to play with. The tap is being closed and because it is such a artificially financed market when prices turn it is vicious. Since the flash crash the bull seems mortally wounded. All recoveries look very weak, as if people expect the floor to open out beneath them again (bit like anyone long the FTSE on Friday afternoon!). So I really have no clue on this potential shoulder and will just hold my shorts. The only thing I have felt tempted to trade is my dollar holdings. I stepped out for a week but when I saw that it looked like a 4th barrier triangle got in again, but watching my stops carefully now because the Euro must rally at some point surely!

    I look forward to deleveraging affecting the mortgage markets as well. Still can’t really imagine the base rate going up if the recession intensifies again though.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • MG – “because the Euro must rally at some point surely! ” As Dan says : ” we have to try and tie in all considerations like currency counts (Euro due big bounce?), sentiment data, etc.

    My first concern is that the dollar and Euro broke out of triangle moves which could indicate a final wave action for each and then a turn for each soon enough. Sentiment on the Euro is very very low. The DAX is also a curious chart.”

    So yes – but to be fair i was a bit premature with my call earlier and took most of the money off the table while we were in that triangle.

    As for just holding my shorts – i think we agreed sometime ago, that unless you want to try and be a smart ass (thats self defacting) then that is the best way to go. Stops (aside from money management) should only really be there to be hit as proof you are wrong.

    As he says either way the S&P should hit 1040. If it hits 1080 before then as a snap back then i add to shorts, if not and it hits 1040 then i look to see what it looks like. I will probably liquidate a fair bit (I shorted more @ 1100 and was looking to add @ 1109 and 1120 if hit with stops at 1135) at around 1130 – not to be greedy. And then look for the bounce.

    Of course if this is the “3rd of the 3rd” or pretchers “point of recognition” then all bets are off, but in my experience the market doesnt give gifts. Interesting week coming up.

    If we are about to end Intermediate 1 and then have Intermediate 2 of Primary 3, then this event, although probably hairy will be a once in a decade p[lace to make or lose fortunes. As i have said before i have no intention of missing that, even if the stakes are upped.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Sorry MG : “(I shorted more @ 1100 and was looking to add @ 1109 and 1120 if hit with stops at 1135) at around 1130” obviously 1130 should be 1030 – still whats a 100 S&P handles these days ? :-).

    Good luck!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • MG btw have u read Pretcher’s latest two theorists? Interesting i thought.

    As for ” look forward to deleveraging affecting the mortgage markets as well. Still can’t really imagine the base rate going up if the recession intensifies again though.” Well i think that actually the numbers coming out of companies might be ok, which will cause the tightening and that would explain a more complex Intermediate 2, than that shown by Dan.

    My gut feel is that we are about to enter the real Hpcrash. I have been a bit standy on the fence by saying we should have 2 monthly falls, before championing the return to large monthly falls but i would be very very surprised if things arent about to get ugly, uglier and ugliest.

    You can almost feel Milliband droolling for the chance to say “i told you so” in 5 years.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mountain goat says:

    TM – Good luck to you too. Thanks for pointing out the leading diagonal, I read up on it. Tempting to liquidate a bit at 1040 but with iii of 3 of 3 of 3, or whatever it is, just around a corner I will leave it to pro’s like yourself. I took my beating stoically in April, now just got to keep patient for the big selloff. Out for a bit now, to let my chickens out on the allotment and tidy the house because my mother is staying for a while to visit the young’un…

    Just read your post on houses. This sucker’s got to go down somehow. The yanks have done well so far deflating their housing bubble. The Brits are a bit harder to convince that this is a bubble, so stop buying before you lose everything.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>