Monday, June 14, 2010

No-brainer

UK growth forecasts to be revised down

You have to make your own forecast. Concern about how markets will react trumps honest forecasting by the government or the "independent" Office for Budget Responsibility (which is also thinking about market reaction).. "Let's not make the forecast very low lest the markets punish sterling and gilts." Rule of thumb - whatever they say, knock off a point or two. (Any link problem just google the FT title.)

Posted by icarus @ 07:38 PM (2174 views)
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2 thoughts on “No-brainer

  • icarus,

    I agree with you 100%. The only trouble is, investors still listen to government announcements. If you know the government is lying you can invest accordingly (by shorting currency or bonds), but if the rest of the market believes what the government is saying, your shorts are broken. “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” – Keynes.

    Personally I’m amazed that countries like Britain can still get away with this.

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  • Whoever is in power Gordon B or David C, Limbo or Con they will do their best to ensure those who created this mess in the first place & thier banker friends will get away. They will ensure every UK family will be suffered most.

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