Thursday, April 29, 2010

Letters between Downing Street and respected UK economist

"Nobody Saw it Coming"

The standard Labour line about the crisis is "nobody saw it coming". I present you with these letters to and from Blair, Brown, Darling, Mandelson and Alastair Campbell, dating back to 1997, in which they are given warnings about a housing crash, why it would happen and specifically when it would happen. The economist says "I am your worst nightmare. I know exactly why New Labour will fail" He puts himself at the services of the government. He is ignored by all of them. You can find his videos on YouTube too - just search for "Fred Harrison". So, nobody saw it coming, right?

Posted by sneaker @ 05:15 PM (2291 views)
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15 thoughts on “Letters between Downing Street and respected UK economist

  • charlie brooker says:

    “Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010”

    PUBLISHED IN 2005!!!!

    Ha! Ha! Ha!

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  • I love this “nobody saw it coming” rubbish. There were plenty of people on here saw it coming and took appropriate steps to avoid getting snared by it.

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  • Much as I like Fred Harrison’s blog site and his ideas about LVT, I don’t understand why he introduced himself with the phrase “I am your worst nightmare.” That isn’t the way to win over people and influence them.

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  • But the 4th Nov 1997 letter to Darling forecast a housing bust during the life of that Parliament. The official response to this post would be the “stopped clock is right twice a day” argument that there are thousands of forecasts or possible scenarios in hundreds of areas (e.g. one scenario outlined the 1990s was that airliners could be seized and flown into buildings). Some disasters will happen and somebody somewhere will claim to have warned about them and blame the authorities for not having foreseen and averted them. To get round this obvious official line of defence you have to do more than produce a forecast or two that came off.

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  • That is frankly amazing.

    After reading his letters, dated in 1997 [!] to Tony Blair, Brown, and Darling, he was able to forecast EXACTLY what would happen.

    Amazing.

    WHY HAVE I NOT SEEN THIS MAN INTERVIEWED ON NEWSNIGHT!!!

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  • tenyearstogetmymoneyback says:

    I agree with Icarus.

    The sad thing is that we haven’t had a housing crash (unlike the USA and Ireland).
    To avoid it the Government may have had to bail out the banks, devalue the pound,
    run up huge debts but so far they have avoided a housing crash.

    I have just thought of a more effective cheaper plan. Had they banned the sale
    of houses, or set up a form of Retail Price Maintenance (e.g It is illegal to sell
    a house for less than you paid for it) then it would be impossible for prices to crash.
    I’m amazed no one thought
    of that one.

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  • Leo Dumpmen says:

    Interesting the notion of ‘predicting’ boom & bust. Obviously the originators of this site back in 2003 acted. As did I: I wrote to Blair, The Treasury & The BoE regarding house prices & the problem of the (lack of) savings culture. Anyone want to see my letter & the replies?

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  • What happened to Fred’s upcoming book, The Inquest? It was supposed to be released a couple of weeks ago but now there’s no sign of it.

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  • the number cruncher says:

    I had lunch with Fred earlier this week – I then asked him to autograph one of his books for me – I have been going around showing his autograph to all my friends and family

    Fred is my hero (my friends think I am Mad!)

    Just to show you how much I think Fred is great, I met Michael Cain last week while stranded in Cyprus, but I did not think that was significant enough to mention, unlike meeting the great Mr Harrison.

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  • 7. the number cruncher said… Fred is my hero

    what’s so good about him?

    he reminds me of that to$$er who tries to coerce you into completing your tax return

    tax doesn’t need to be taxing

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  • “I met Michael Cain…but I did not think that was significant enough to mention”

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  • Charlie Brooker says:

    devo

    You mean Adam Hart Davis?

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  • 9. rumble said…

    “I met Michael Cain…but I did not think that was significant enough to mention”

    Not a lot of people know that.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Fred’s Inquest book has been out a couple of weeks, available at Amazon etc. He sent me a copy, but not autographed (sniff).

    @ 4. Icarus, Fred had been saying there’d be a price crash in December 2007 since the late 1990s, that is a verifiable fact. Whether there was or would have been a crash is a separate topic.

    @ 7. TNC, one of my feeble claims to fame is that Fred mentioned my Bow Group report in the footnotes to the book he brought out in 2006-ish (‘Ricardo’s Law…’). Which he gave me in person and autographed 🙂

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  • …… and who should pop his head out of the next tent…..Robert De Niro

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