Friday, April 23, 2010

Good!

House Prices Would Crash if Tories Win!

Well, it is one reason I can think of to vote for the tories! THe thing is, this will have to happen whoever wins. It is just a shame that the sheeple don't realise or care!

Posted by brickormortis @ 03:56 PM (3761 views)
Please complete the required fields.



52 thoughts on “Good!

  • Is there anyone who’s been following the manifestos of the different parties and can provide some kind of analysis on the effects on house prices? For example, the Cons have also pledged to put a cap on immigration, which might help ease the pressure on housing/benefits/NHS.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • “Prices could fall by up to 20% if the next government increases unemployment by attacking public sector jobs, a move that would have the knock-on effect of pushing up repossessions and undermining the delicate balance in the housing market”.

    So how might they be encouraged to drop by 25% ?? We might actually help those poor FtBs..

    …oh no!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • mark wadsworth says:

    Warming to Alan’s theme, what would happen if we got public sector (over)employment down to 1990s levels, i.e. cut out about 2 million non-jobs? If handled correctly, they’d get jobs in private sector, taxes could be cut and house prices would go up.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Vote for the party that will cause the harshest recession because it will get house prices down ?

    What is really needed is a political party that will get house prices down deliberately, rather than as a by-product of screwing up the economy. As there is no such party, the next best option is a government that will bring in electoral reform so that minority views have a voice in parliament. How many seats would a ‘fair house price’ party win under a PR voting system?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Mark Wadsworth, you appear to believe that you are some what protected on this site amongst like minded pessimists.

    How would your Liberal Democrat constituency voter react if they knew that you would rather sell them down the Nile

    in order to arrive at your goal of a devastating house price crash.

    Do they actually know your views? Perhaps add them to your campaign leaflet.

    At least it would be the truth, spoken for the horse’s mouth.

    Not that you look like a horse, but 40??….. Come on, be truthful in some respect.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • gone-to-colombia says:

    It does not matter which party wins the election, the economic realities will have to be addressed.
    House prices falls will be a consequence of this. This has nothing to do with trying to push the market down.
    The market must crash, either a long, slow fall held back by inflation, or a swift crash. I suspect the latter.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • smugdog – as usual your comments lack credibility – FYI Mr Wadsworth has no formal political affilaition to the Lib Dems.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Jackc, I may be mistaken, but whatever party he is standing for in this election,

    it matters to who happens to be considering him as a candidate.

    I could investigate, but the afternoon sun beckons.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Mark Wadsworth Ukip… How distressing, it gets worse.

    Same argument applies; tell your voters your views.

    Add them to your campaign leaflet why don’t you

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Can’t do that –

    “We need to approach the subject of immigration in a calm, sensitive and measured way. UKIP is a non-racist, non-sectarian party. This is about numbers – it’s about space, not race. We are a very crowded nation.” David Campbell Bannerman (MEP) – UKIP Deputy Leader

    The UK is neither small nor crowded” Mark Wadsworth – UKIP Treasurer

    What would UKIP candidate Paul Wiffen say ?

    “You left-wing scum are all the same, wanting to hand our birthright to Romanian gypsies who beat their wives and children into begging and stealing money they can gamble with, Muslim nutters who want to kill us and put us under medieval Sharia law, the same Africans who sold their Afro-Caribbean brothers into a slavery that Britain was first to abolish (but you still want to apologize for!)”

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I’m not sure quite what is being driven at here regarding Mark Wadsworth but if ever there was a party that said one thing in public and behaved differently in private you need look no further than the Labour party! ‘Lets rub the rights nose in multiculturalism’ or words to that extent in some dodgy dossier. Also has everybody forgotten the expenses scandal already? If I’m reading this thread right it looks as if Mark has potentially shot himself in the foot? All I can say is, what a pity a basic message like the UK is full up has to be dressed up. Yes Mark please do tell us your views! UKIP should be proud of you for daring to air your personal views in pub!ic The tragedy in all of this is that political correctness in the UK is stifling rational debate in this country and this is exactly why personal views may not be expressed as freely as may be liked. Yes Mark tell us your views – I reckon more people would vote for you if they were honest about it.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @LuckyJim

    “What is really needed is a political party that will get house prices down deliberately, rather than as a by-product of screwing up the economy.”

    Fine sentiments but is there any way to depress house prices without causing pain for those who borrowed to much? Even solvent households will dislike the ‘feel good’ factor slipping away. I’ve decided it’s no use hoping for any politician to address this issue. I’m just going to wait and see what happens after the election.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I find Mark Wadsworth’s comments quite well-informed generally. I can’t think why he’s standing for a party like UKIP.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • “is there any way to depress house prices without causing pain for those who borrowed to much”
    Hello? Why shouldn’t they suffer the consequences of their actions? Don’t squash the grass, don’t obstruct the wind….

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    As far as I understand, MW is not gunning for a devastating HPC but rather a structural reform in housing/ land related taxation that would prevent the ever-turning wheel of bubbles (which have the human cost of pricing people out) and the inevitable bust (which also has the human cost of repos); we just happen to be in bubble phase of the merry-go-round.

    No main stream party will address the problems in the housing market. Principles and long term economic health are secondary to pandering to the whims of a small swathe of floating voters in the marginals. Notwithstanding the enjoyable and (mostly) intelligent debates here, most people here seem to have given some thought to their voting intentions and are not moved by tv debates and posters. It is the marginal merry housewives on netmums who, at the whisper of a houseprice crash will flock to their forums, Catherine Kidston aprons flapping in outrage. All the “AngelFluffBabe” and “FarleysRuskEssexGal”s will squeal as the nasty government let their unearned paper wealth burn on the bonfire of failed ideology, fuelled by greed and lit by the match of easy credit and they will vote for anyone who will try and put that fire out and save their ‘wealth’.

    I have to admit that I honestly don’t have a clue where and when house prices are going. Back in 2008 I was (along with many) trumpeting to my nearest and dearest (including the bullish Mr TS) that all the government props were destined to fail and I look like a right Charlie now after a year and £14k of rises. I am not keen to be proven so drastically wrong again in too much of a hurry. We are both owners already (aqnd are seriously looking to emigrate), so whilst a HPC benefit any upsize, It isn’t such a tragedy for us if prices steady or rise.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • The first step would be to have clear polices linking Housing consumption to the wider economy – the second step would be to deliver them

    I think there is a link between housing behaving as a ‘Giffen good’ and the wider economy. Stop Housing behaving as ‘Inferior’ goods and we will have a Housing Market that is inter-generationally fair and benefits the wider economy.

    But I am very suspicious of headlines reading: “up to 20%”.

    Why not 21%?

    Where is the analysis that places a ‘Collar’ on the size of the fall?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super… I agree – it boils down to one word ; greed. Affordable housing should be a right in any society and should be universal not just for the privileged few. Whether it’s rented or mortgaged is irrelevant, social or private doesn’t matter. Even those “fortunate” enough to have a large mortgage are working simply to pay for their shelter – which means they have less to spend in the wider economy ; bad for them and bad for the economy. We need house prices to fall to affordable levels, more houses to be built – both private and social, and tenant to be given proper rights i.e. assured tenancy rights. Housing should not be seen as a guaranteed way to make money and simply be a place to live, maybe a proper pension system would help to bring this change in thinking about. Labour have merely carried on from where the Tories left off – abolishing assured tenancy – and have wrecked the pension system, which was why everyone piled into buy to let. The whole system needs re-balancing.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • MW @ 3… Warming to Alan’s theme @ 2….

    Let him proclaim that in his campaign.

    Or maybe just behind the HPC net curtains perhaps.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    Alan, I am always a little wary of using the word ‘right’ … the notion of a natural right is probably as Bentham said, nonsense on ‘stilts’.
    There will always be those on a low wage who cannot afford to buy a house. The provision of social housing is not, in my opinion, a ‘right’ but it is a good thing to provide because of the effect of not providing this on wider society and children. As I don’t think this is a right, there has to be a contract and standard of behaviour and responsibility from the recipient.

    I support a reform of the system because it is a sensible thing to have long term stable prices and because I believe that individuals have a right to acquire private property as long as they must leave “enough and as good in common…to others. In the case of land, this Lockean proviso is clearly violated. I deviate from most here because I believe that as long as land be left in common the proviso is not violated. I think others here insist that enough land with services and infrastructure and jobs is left in common, hence there is a slight disagreement about graduation of any LVT.

    In the case of housing, not only is there not enough ‘left in good and common’ but there is a deliberate sabotage to ensure there is a continued shortage through restrictive planning. This attack on freedom is so profound, I believe the state has contravened the true purpose of goverment to the point I no longer feel that the state is legitimate.

    For this reason, when Cameron esposes his ‘big society’ and claims ‘We are all in this together’, I would strongly contend that actually no we are not!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • “This attack on freedom is so profound, I believe the state has contravened the true purpose of goverment to the point I no longer feel that the state is legitimate.”

    *standing ovation*

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Prices need to crash for any lasting recovery in the economy or house prices.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Semantics TS, whether it’s a right or part of a social contract it amounts to the same thing, and in essence we’re in agreement. On the other hand you seem a little confused – you quote the Lockean proviso with regard to land whereas dismiss the right of shelter, quoting Bentham’s utilitarianism. Shome mishtake shurely?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    Agreed… in essence we are in the main in agreement! And yep, it is a bit daft of me to dismiss rights a la Bentham then go to Locke’s theory of property which relies on the concept of rights.

    I dont think there are natural rights but property rights and freedom from unecessary interference are artificial rights which are necessary.
    As Hobbes pointed out – life would be nasty, brutish, and short without governance. If we had unlimited natural freedoms, and the freedom to harm all who threatened our desires, there would be a perpetual bellum omnium contra omnes (war of all against all).
    From a biological, ethological perspective it makes evolutionary sense to have society and government through a social contract – the exchange of civil freedoms given in return for my obedience to civil law or to political authority.

    My civil freedoms no longer exist. I have been immorally bound in servitude, working to pay tax to the bankocracy to perpetuate the wealth of criminal financiers and homeowners and maintain the exclusion of others from a suitable home.

    Since my civil freedoms no longer exist, there is no onus on me to give in exchange
    my deference to presumed moral principles or cooperation in society. This is all very theoretical but there are practical outcomes. Take these readers’ comments from a right wing newspaper commentary:

    “I am a young female (I’m 22), but no kids yet, I won’t even be finished uni till I’m almost 25, and by that time my most fertile yrs will already be over. I went to a private (fee-paying) high school, and there was an expectation that I would go to university. I thought I was doing the responsible thing by going to uni, but now I feel bad because it means I will miss out on having a family when I’m young. I envy young mums with babies, living out of home. I think I must be a mug for going to uni, it’s not fun, it’s hard work and I’m forced to be dependent on my family while I study and live at home, and then face many yrs paying off student debt.” Amy

    “Here is what happens to us females who do it the “right” way. We pass all our exams, then do the horrible commute, hard work, taxes thing as you describe. We get married like good girls and just before our ovaries pack up we reckon we can afford a baby. We give up work/go part-time to give our children the best upbringing, and wear second-hand clothes and give up holidays, because our husbands are taxed to the hilt to pay for other people’s babies. A few years down the line, we get a letter from the government saying we haven’t paid enough tax to get a full pension. Who’s the mug?” Speedwell.

    I have noticed more and more comments from people like Amy and Speedwell. Young professional women are realising that middle earners are now paying for the bailouts above and the non-workers below and they are being taken for a ride. They both use the word ‘mug’ – they’re waking up to the foul aroma of the rancid coffee! It is easier to be a mother with a non-resident partner in a decent house paid for on housing benefit and I think that is what more and more young ‘middle class’ (for want of a better expression) will do. And when the older generation say they “should be ashamed of themselves” they absolutely won’t be ashamed, precisely because of the breakdown in social contract.

    Either house prices come down or we continue the path we are on towards bellum omnium contra omnes which is obviously not going to be sustainable for long!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Agreed.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • “..unlimited natural freedoms, and the freedom to harm all who threatened our desires, there would be a perpetual bellum omnium contra omnes” – brings to mind a certain superpower across the pond.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Rumble, are you Crunchy under a different guise?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • You can tell it’s Friday night and some contributors are ” in their cups” or have had “a whiff of the barmaid’s apron” by their long rambling comments.

    I found the Taylor’s to be in top form incidentally.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • You old curmudgeon Mr G!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @21. tenant super

    go girl!!

    another inspired posting!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @alan_540

    Yes, I’m auditioning for Grumpy Old Men.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    Mr G, My Friday rambling posts are actually a substitute for going to the pub not an effect! Despite my HPC alter ego, I am in fact a teetotaller!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Nothing personal, I assure you TS!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Mr g, no, your theory is crumbly.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    I shouldn’t be so touchy! I once visited the cellars of Taylors in Vila Nova de Gaia when I was in Porto for a conference a couple of years ago – I almost got wistful and wish I did still drink cos the samples they were passing around smelled amazing!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Well I’m halfway through a bottle of port, and very nice it is too.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Actually Mr G, you’ve given me food for thought. I woke up with a dodgy eyeball this morning. Not someone else’s, my own. I don’t why, and it’s still bloodshot and uncomfortable. I’ve also had a dodgy chest for a while. So I was wondering why my health is suddenly deteriorating and figured this must be the result of poisoning. What else? What’s worrying about that is not that I’m being poisoned, but that I live alone. So I don’t want to sound like a conspiracy nut, but maybe you’re right…?!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @rumble I woke up with a dodgy eyeball this morning. Not someone else’s, my own.

    good one. Tommy would have claimed that as his own

    btw, are you familiar with the Gaia principle?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    Turning from these memoirs of the online sommelier and back to house prices, as I said, I really have no idea where and when they are going. I think we all pretty much agree, all the main parties are either too cowardly or too blinded for the structural reform needed. But we probably also agree they long ran out of money and are running out of other options. How far any government is willing to go remains to be seen. In fact we are still seeing a fair rate of repos (compared to the very tight moratorium on reposessions in Ireland) so lender forbearance has further mileage as do sale and rent-back rescue packages.

    If I were forced into a guess (I admit with the accuracy of Mystic Meg); without any serious runaway inflation, bond market catastrophes and other shock triggers, my guess would be be 2010 +6%, 2011 -8%, 2012, -2% then flat.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • After my Labour party flyer arrived asking me to get in touch I emailed them asking them if they welcomed house price falls like they would if food fuel or clothing dropped in price. They did reply but evaded answering the question leading me to think that HPI is still Labour policy.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • What do you do for a living TS?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @tenant super

    bond market catastrophes are a given

    my guess is that your guesses will look ridiculous in hindsight

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @Devo, yeah, watched Avatar back when I could appreciate 3D.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • not wishing to pry, but just how ill are you, rumble?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • allow me to scrub my crass comment @40, and replace it with a final thought for the evening…

    sunshine has the answer

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    @ Devo, I really hope so! I have felt like a bit of a twonk following the total dissonance between my predictions of 2008 and the last year. But I would actually welcome looking ridiculous in this instance.

    Alan, I have a rather odd career situation. I’m a scientist (biological science bachelor and bioethics and medical law MA) worked in biomedical publishing for seven years after graduating but was then put out of action for a while following a brain injury (explains a lot!) I’m now doing a part time PhD while working full time for a religious organisation doing communications and weird theological stuff !

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I spent this afternoon in the sun – I’m slightly burnt. Did you not watch Avatar? Organisms connect their nerve tissue – the whole planet is connected.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Thanks TS – not many people quote philosophy, was more than a little curious.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    Bioethics is practical philosophy applied to biomedical science in medical law and society, so you start with a crash course in philosophy which has always been a subject I have dipped into.

    I think it is good to challenge assertions, and there are a lot of political assertions (eg (rights based ethics, scope of government, legitimacy and structure of taxation) which have been established via an ad nauseum argument. Dig a little deeper and often the champions of the argument have very little in the way of a cogent supporting case. For example the arguments often given for progressive taxation; because it is only right those who can afford to pay more do so; because we have a duty to look after the weak/ vulnerable… these are not arguments, they are assertions. There are good arguments for progressive taxation (for example Rawls’ ‘Justice as Fairness’), but I don’t often hear them.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • There’s only one fair taxation and that’s income tax.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    I disagree but we’ll leave that for another day. What is fairness anyway and is it legitimate to try and create it?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • What is fairness anyway and is it legitimate to try and create it?

    ♫♪ The rich man in his castle,
    The poor man at his gate,
    God made them high and lowly,
    And ordered their estate

    All things bright and beautiful,
    All creatures great and small,
    All things wise and wonderful,
    The Lord God made them all. ♫♪

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tenant super says:

    If I were to ever get married (which I won’t because I believe personal relationships are not the concern of the State), and I were to have this hymn (which I wouldn’t because it’s twee)… I would probably have this commonly omitted verse re-inserted!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>