Saturday, March 27, 2010

Debts

Budget 2010: We are in danger of ignoring Britain’s real debt disaster

Just another article about our debts. Ho hum. Then I read this bit: "But when you consider that 43 per cent of all mortgages are now interest-only, you can see how precarious the situation is." Please, somebody tell me this is not correct. I think of myself as a bear but 43% of mortgages are interest only?!!!! Please somebody tell me this is not correct. There's a lot more in this article about social unrest but I don't want to go there right now.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:17 AM (6311 views)
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43 thoughts on “Debts

  • i commend this article to the house

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  • quiet guy

    its true!…and they have also used it in the affordability calculations!

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  • (Posted for the Casual Reader) First Published in April 2003. Today, it has all come to pass:

    RULE BRITANNIA 2003

    PRIME MINISTER BLAIR’S CHANCELLOR: GORDON BROWN’S ‘No More Booms or Busts’ LEGACY

    MONEY, PROPERTY, EMPLOYMENT – HOW WILL YOU SURVIVE?

    A DEPRESSION NATURALLY OCCURS EVERY 55 YEAR – BELOW: 200 YEARS OF BOOMS AND CRASHES

    Graph (do not know how to include) Not to Scale: From: DownWave: How to Survive the Second Great Depression. by R. Beckman. Red Text & Line Added

    Public & Government Debt Has Reach an All-time High, the Government Has a Monstrous Black Hole to Fill and the Public Will Have to Borrow Even More to Pay The Coming Tax Increases. You Don’t Need A Brain to Know the Inevitable Abyss is Already on us

    (Year 2003): We have been lured into debt by a false sense of security & government spin. What all of the experts would tell you if only they dared? Financial history repeats itself. A period of deflation paired with excessive speculative borrowing causes a crash. Too many civil servants, overt taxation, atrophied manufacturing, too much borrowing, reckless property investment, balance of payment deficit. Maintaining the economy by creating a consumer boom on £1.4trillion of personal debt this will result in an unprecedented personal bankruptcies & increased redundancies. Will you be able to repay your debts? Will your savings be safe or will they be lost by bank rupture?

    POLITICAL NARCISSISTIC DISREGARD OF THE ELECTORATE, WITH YEARS OF DERELICTION AND NEGLECT OF THE UNITED KINGDOM’S INFRASTRUCTURES & MANUFACTURING BASE, CAUSING:

    A BREAKDOWN & SOARING COSTS IN:
    Manufacturing & Employment – Hospital & General Practice, Dental & Mental Health Services – Domicile Medical Care – Nursing Homes – Social Services -Ambulance & Fire Services – Public Healthy & Safety – Immigration Control – Railway, Aviation, Road Transportation – Industry & Production – Manufacturing – Employment – Shipping & Dock Services -Prison & Judicial Services – Postal & Post Office Services – Water, Gas, Electricity & Oil – Farming & Food – Environmental Safeguards & Planning – Coastal Defenses – Pollution Control – Waste Disposal – Water & Sewerage Services – Housing – Architecture & Buildings – Town & Country Planning – Primary, Secondary & University Education – Tourism – Quality Control of Food & Drugs – Medical & Scientific Research & Development – Sporting Facilities – Youth Recreational Facilities;

    ACCOMPANIED BY:
    Intolerable Taxation ‑ Stealth Taxation – Central Government Misuse of Public Funds for Providing Inducements to Public Sector Workers, the Media & Public Information Services towards Electorate Manipulation – Selling Off of Public Assets – Corruption by Members of Parliament, Central & Local Governments for Personal Gain – Mercenary & Fraudulent Banking Services, Stock Exchange, Corporate, Pension Funds, Insurance Companies Corruption ‑ Public Obsession with Consumerism ‑ Duplicity for Profit by Estate Agents & Surveyors ‑ Compromised Legal Profession ‑ Moderation of Law Enforcement Professionals down to Punitive Revenue Collectors;

    RESULTING IN THE ESCALATION OF:
    Public Apathy & Despondency, Pandemic Loss of Confidence, Distrust & Cynicism of Politicians & Central & Local Government – Public Sector Employment – Inappropriate Punitive Legislation to Create a Climate of Fear – Suppression of Personal Freedom & Independency ‑ Obstructing & Interference from Government Agencies in Domestic & Business Life – Dereliction of Industrial Towns & Cities – Manipulation of National Statistics – Industrial Action – Unemployment Poverty – Homelessness – Begging – Racial Segregation & Slums – State Benefits Dependency. Terrorism – Military Action – Crime – Fraud – Homicide – Suicides – Divorce – Unmarried Mothers – Domestic Violence – Child Abuse – Fear – Stress – Sickness & Disease – Prescriptive & Illegal Drug Use – Alcohol & Tobacco Consumption – Public Demonstrations and Riots – Consumer Debt – Personal & Corporate Bankruptcies – Property Crash – Residential & Commercial Property Repossessions ‑ Sterling Pound Devaluation Compromising its Sovereignty – Selective Manipulation of Inflation & Deflation – Destruction of Personal Wealth & Savings – Balance of Payment Deficit – Printing of Money – Grand Losses in Stocks, Shares , Bonds, Pensions,& Savings with Insider Trading Commonplace.

    NEW LABOUR HAS USED PUBLIC MONEY (TAXES: YOUR MONEY) TO BUY VOTES AND HAS BANKRUPTED OUR UNITED KINGDOM

    Telegraph: Labour is stealing from our children’s future to buy votes =

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/7523175/Budget-2010-Labour-is-stealing-from-our-childrens-future-to-buy-votes.html

    FORWARD THIS TO EVERYONE ON YOUR MAILING LIST

    S.O.S.

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  • I thought I was a bear until I read down wave’s post @3. I know that things don’t look good right now but really…

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  • stillthinking says:

    Where was this article before? Bit late now.

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  • cyril…..historically all those things are possible….we are extremely arrogant to think that out utopian society cannot collapse…history says all ways of life eventually collapse

    babylon now iraq..roman empire..egyptians..tinkas…russia…the list is endless usually through greed and poor money management

    whether it happens in out lifetime is another matter,but all the ingredients are there for an extremely nasty 20 years

    One of the worst problems we face is population growth in 1950 it was 2 billion…now its over 7 billion…12 billion by 2025 and one of the biggest riskd is a nuclear exchange which is ever more likely…this would collapse the world financial system overnight

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  • Very interesting comment:

    “This article is typical of the shocking misunderstanding that journalists and economists have of our financial system. We are not in a Capitalist system. Capitalism is where people work, under-consume and save thus producing ‘Capital’ with which to invest, da daa! We are in a totally ‘Managed Economy’ Soviet Style in all but name. Nothing is ‘market driven’. Interest rates are set by the Central Bank, the fifth plank of Marxism. Money is either printed out of thin air or magically created by the Fractional Reserve Banking System that multiplies deposits by ninefold. People are taxed 50% which means the sensible have no option but to have the Govt waste what they would have spent themselves on unseen goods and services that were never allowed to come into existance and create sustainable jobs. What the Bail Out was really about was those investors who had a direct line through to Gordon Brown saw no point in themselves going bankrupt so the stupid tax payer and future generations should be made to pay up for their foolishness as, apart from the biggest blunder in history, the greedy and selfish Crony Corporatists know best and they of course wont dig us in further but will lead us out of this mess, even if it takes 20 years. In a Free Market we would have been out of this in a year. The Proof? Google ‘The Forgotten recession of 1920-21. Wilson was too ill to sign the Bank Bail Out and, well, they went bust. The US economy shrank 17%. Govt spending was halved, taxes on all classes were halved. Disaster? Nope. The mal-investment Austrian School Economists talk about was purged. The inefficient sold to the efficient and the roaring Twenties resulted. In 1929 Hoover did the opposite, Bailed Out Banks and everyone else, price controls, ploughed crops back whilst people starved to preserve prices. FDR did even worse and confiscated all the gold held by citizens at $24/oz then sold it on the world market for $34/oz. so he could inflate the currency and John Dough ended up with none and no gold to use as an alternative to the fake dollar. Banks to big to fail? You mean Government to big to succeed. It poisons everything it touches.”

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  • I think one of the differences today to the past is the sheer amount of pointless things we buy and pointless jobs we have created….whereas the credit crunch was trying to tell us to get back to basics…how much do we really need….10% of employment is in retail…weird…apples new i-pad…totally pointless thing we don’t need

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  • It is true: I posted this fact on the forum. There is an IO mortgage time bomb waiting to happen – when the mortgage term comes to an end they wont have 200k in the bank to pay it off and will get repo’ed. This is the only reason that the people who would not have traditionaly been able to afford a mortgage took them out during the last ten years – this is the real cause of house price inflation to the levels they are now.

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  • In my spare time I voluntarily work for a national charity giving debt advice. I agree with the article.

    I looked around the Jubilee line carriage yesterday and everyone seemed to be fiddling with their new phone apps. Is that a sign of the times?

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  • But aren’t Interest-only morgages always coupled with some sort of endowment or other investment that is intended to ultimately pay off the capital?

    Also, I suspect some interest-only mortgageholders are intentionally overpaying in these times of low interest.

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  • Downwave @3…no, don’t think I’ll be forwarding that to anybody who knows me ’cause it will make me look very misguided indeed.

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  • And err, Tom 101 @ 7 FDR was a hammer of the poor, was he?

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  • “FDR was a hammer of the poor, was he?”

    From a certain point of view, the answer is yes. Obviously Franklin Delano Roosevelt meant well, as most politicians do, but some American economists argue that his massive interference with the Americam economy did great harm. Just look at all the ideals Labour came to power with in 1997 and contemplate where we are now.

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  • Centralisation is the end result of all economic systems unless it is actively fought and to imagine otherwise is naive utopianism, I’m afraid. We have never had a ‘real’ form of any such system, which is why the left/right debate is so pointless.

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  • No one’s blamed the boomers yet, is that because it’s Saturday and the boomer bashers out spending to save the economy or is there a growing realisation that my generation aren’t solely to blame for the current sh*t?

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  • Mr G,

    I’m beginning to suspect that you enjoy arguments about ‘boomers’ 🙂

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  • landofconfusion says:

    Incidentally, people wouldn’t have to take on interest only mortgages if the boomers…

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  • @Quiet Guy “I’m beginning to suspect that you enjoy arguments about ‘boomers’ :)”

    Not really.

    I respect anyone’s point of view and their right to express it but the visceral hatred shown to my generation by some contributors to HPC is out of order and has gone unchallenged for too long.

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  • I presume you have not completed your comment Land of Confusion but it was still impeccably timed to prove my point.

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  • Mr G

    I respect your position but I interpreted Land Of Confusion’s comment as a jest – clearly not to be taken seriously.

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  • landofconfusion says:

    “the visceral hatred shown to my generation by some contributors to HPC is out of order and has gone unchallenged for too long.”

    I work on the priciple that each generation inproves the world for the next. This has certainly held true since Victorian times right up until the generation born during/just after the second world war. After that, things went into reverse with those generations in particular consuming all that they were given and, when that was exhausted, consuming wealth from their childrens’ future.

    And now, as they retire they want a good life on a good pension and oh, to keep their house, savings and have everything paid for by others.

    Well guess what.

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  • Spiderchannel says:

    brilliant comment tom101

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  • landofconfusion says:

    “but I interpreted Land Of Confusion’s comment as a jest – clearly not to be taken seriously.”

    That was the aim of my first comment but on a more serious note, my second comment is the product of experience. It is not aimed at those few who worked hard throughout their lives and who, like one set of my grandparents at least, tried to make sure that the next generation had best chance possible. It is instead aimed that those in the older generation who seem to be in the majority and who partied throughout their lives and now want my generation to look after them and ensure that they spend their final years in luxury.

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  • markj69 str05 says:

    LOC @20. Dare I say your views are not shared by all. All gererations capable of improving personal wealth will do so. It’s natures inbuilt mechanism – Survival of the fittest. Now if the government allow policies to help one demographic over another, then thats political, and not genrational.

    Get over it! We are where we are. If you’re going to point fingers, politicians, corporate organisations, and finanicial industries are where I suggest you aim your digits.

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  • Mr G

    OK, I was wrong about LOC. I’m going to leave it at that.

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  • landofconfusion says:

    22. markj69 str05 said…
    All gererations capable of improving personal wealth will do so. It’s natures inbuilt mechanism

    Nature’s inbuilt mechanism is to breed, to ensure the survival of the next generation. What the generation I have just mentioned has done is, in that sense perverted.

    Now if the government allow policies to help one demographic over another, then thats political, and not genrational.
    But in a democracy how to governments come to pass? Previous generations were able to, and despite political corruption, ensure that the next generation was healthier and wealthier than themselves. This is the true objective of nature, not self indulgence and using your kids’ as future slaves.

    If you’re going to point fingers, politicians, corporate organisations, and finanicial industries

    In other words, point fingers at those structures created by past generations which have now failed due to the way that they were created and maintained. But whatever you do, don’t blame the creators!

    “He who controls the past commands the future.” – George Orwell

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  • LoC, be not confussed, politicians deregulated the mortgage market and thus was born interest only and/or self certification loans and tho it cme to pass that the excesses of 4×4 SUV Property Developers and BTL Spivs all fur and no knickers brigade were born.

    People take advantage of the short term beat the Jones’s circumstances that are put in front of them in the absence of adequate mortgage loan checks and hands-off regulation.

    Long term planning was chucked out of the window with the nationalisation of state owned infrastructure, the short term ambitions of our parasitic politicians of whatever flavour you choose are entirely to blame.

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  • markj69 str05 says:

    @ LOC…
    ‘Nature’s inbuilt mechanism is to breed, to ensure the survival of the next generation.’ – I agree. But this has a much stronger effect on a smaller family level than on a larger social level. Charity begins at home, etc…

    ‘This is the true objective of nature, not self indulgence and using your kids’ as future slaves.’ – The intension is not to use ‘YOUR’ kids as slaves, but to preserve and grow your own wealth for your OWN children. Where-ever there are winners there are loosers. We will never live in a utopian society, there will always be a teired society – Various classes if you prefer.

    ‘In other words, point fingers at those structures created by past generations which have now failed due to the way that they were created and maintained. But whatever you do, don’t blame the creators! ‘ – I think you’ll find that the creators are not who you think they are. You are blaming the people using the mechanisms presented to them. Not the Inventor!

    The past is not controlled only the present and in some degree the future. And until all information is controlled, and able to be changed without question, that will remain the case. I ‘Double’- think!

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  • @LOC “It is not aimed at those few who worked hard throughout their lives and who, like one set of my grandparents at least, tried to make sure that the next generation had best chance possible.”

    I genuinely applaud you for that comment as I consider myself to be amongst the group you describe.

    I’m from an ordinary working class background, started work labouring on the shop floor and through hard work and learning rose to senior management. I improved my lot without doing the dirty on others, hired a caravan in Wales instead of foreign holidays, didn’t waste my money partying and p*ssing it against the wall, saved for everything we bought and tried to ensure the next generation had the best chance possible.

    Without a doubt there are many of my age group who deserve criticism but I personally take exception to being tarred with the same brush, hence some of my posts.

    I’m not suggesting that your comments are aimed at me personally by the way.

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  • landofconfusion says:

    25. enuii said… LoC, be not confussed, politicians deregulated the mortgage market

    But who voted in the politicians? Somebody obviously liked their policies.

    People take advantage of the short term beat the Jones’s circumstances that are put in front of them in the absence of adequate mortgage loan checks and hands-off regulation.

    Naturally but previous generations also did things which improved society. They saved, invested in infrastructure, enhanced social services and as a result enjoyed a better quality of life – which they then gave to future generations.

    After WWII we seem to have acquired a generation of politicians who were quite distinct from those what came before. Much like those that voted for them.

    I think you’ll find that the creators are not who you think they are. You are blaming the people using the mechanisms presented to them. Not the Inventor!

    Every generation reforms the country in the ways it best thinks fit. That which still exists must therefore be acceptable in the eyes of those who did not seek to change it. Some bits work. Some don’t. Some are plain dangerous.

    Also for the context of this argument, removal of laws, controls and regulations constitutes a new way of working, an ‘invention’ if you like. If those things when present prevented damage but their removal now allows catastrophe who is responsible? Those who live now but not then or those who lived then and benefited at the expense of the future?

    I’m not saying that I disagree with Mr G’s comments, some blame must lay with this generation but the match which first lit the fuse lies in the past.

    Unless like some you belive that the past remains mostly blameless. In which case I guess it’s just a matter of holistic perspective.

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  • landofconfusion says:

    27. mr g said… I genuinely applaud you for that comment as I consider myself to be amongst the group you describe.

    I by no means which to tar your whole generation. Just like with mine there must have been those who actually got to where they are though sheer hard work. It just annoys me that so many of them complain about being poor and yet enjoy 3-4 foreign holidays a year, drive nice cars and live in nice homes, having first brought in their early 20’s. I know someone who fits this description perfectly and he’s always complaining about having to pay tax on his shares and pension and that he can’t get ‘free loft insulation’ whereas younger people on low wages can!

    Looking at what happened post-WWII shows that people in his generation benefited enormously from house building programmes, the existence of wealth-generating industries and finally de-regulation and sell-offs. This effectively left my generation with very little, except a large group of pensioners who, unlike you did not work hard and save for their retirement and who now believe that my generation should pay to keep them living in luxury.

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  • markj69 str05 says:

    @LOc 29… We could always lobby for a new policy to cull all people over a certain age. Or even just those not economically self sufficient. What do you think?

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  • Such a lot of nonsense talked about one generation enjoying riches at the expense of another. There are rich and poor throughout society; some of the richest are actually quite young (the bankers especially), some were born well before 1945. The real issue is inequality, however it happens to fall.

    Wailing post-boomers (not quite sure how young one has to be to qualify) should perhaps consider that they are living their prime years without the threat of nuclear holocaust, with the benefit of the best nutrition in history and the best health care, the ability to travel widely (stamping their carbon footprints everywhere), greater access to education and wider job opportunities. Could be a lot worse.

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  • landofconfusion says:

    30. markj69 str05 said…
    “@LOc 29… We could always lobby for a new policy to cull all people over a certain age. Or even just those not economically self sufficient. What do you think?

    A far less facetious approach would be to reverse the damage. How about LVT for example? Admittedly implementing it might be difficult especially given that it might hit some people hard, like the elderly couple living a few streets away in the 4-bed house which, according to their son they “can’t maintain or even keep clean”.

    Or how about making the basic state pension just that: basic. Make it so that it is just enough to keep you afloat and out of poverty and if you want better then you’d have to prepare for your retirement?

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  • landofconfusion says:

    31. letthemfall said…
    “Such a lot of nonsense talked about one generation enjoying riches at the expense of another.”

    I’m nearly 30. I’ve got what is by my generation’s standard quite a big deposit. I’m quite well educated and at current prices I have almost no chance of owning a house.

    I didn’t benefit from the post war housing boom or the HPI suppressive taxation with kept housing affordable or even the selling off of the “family silver”. Instead I’m looking forward to at least a decade of repaying the debt that the last generation has helped bring into being though a lack of regulation and HPI. I’m now living in a country which is overcrowded as previous generations’ politicians repeatedly failed to slow immigration to only those people that this country needs.

    I’m going to have to save more and get less at retirement as these are taxed and because our productive industries have been allowed to wither away.

    I’m living in a country who’s crime rates have gone up so much that the government now changes the way they’re reported every 1-2 years just so you can’t compare them.

    While I agree with you that I might not be living with the threat of nuclear war but I am living with the threat of terrorism. With the possibility that a ‘rouge state’ might get it’s hands on a dirty bomb. And I am living with the consequences of trying to prevent such an occurrence.

    Air travel, who’s heyday was enjoyed by previous generations is too expensive for me and yet many retired people seem to be able to afford it several times a year.

    And the health service, which you quite rightly point out has improved is now going into reverse. Relatives who work in it talk about fewer beads, less staff. More work for those staff. Less hospitals. Shorter A&E hours. The list goes on and isn’t improving.

    I’m not saying that any one generation is to blame, but a large number of the baby-boomer generation have a lot to answer for.

    “Could be a lot worse.”

    You’re right. It could be after the election.

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  • Enoughalready says:

    I agree wholeheartedly with landofconfusion. The boomers have fubar’d it for everyone else – and worse, they don’t give a damn!

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  • I don’t get this arguement about the older generation having it better than the younger one. Surely the simple truth is that the older generation bought their houses when they were younger and at a time between booms and the current younger generation will be able to buy in the next few years when house prices will be much lower for years to come. Of course thirty years from now the future younger generation will be complaining about the older generation – current younger generation – having benifited from future ridiculously high house prices! And to those that say that they have bought at the wrong time, well that mistake has been made by ill informed people of all ages.

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  • If I was LoC’s age, I would be very angry indeed. I would also add retirement age and university grants into the mix.

    However, I suspect that our children and grandchildren will be even more angry, those who survive anyway. After paying off the mountain of debt and supporting a huge older population, they will look back in a world without fossil fuels and without enough arible land and wonder how we managed to p*** their legacy away, burning off the last of the oil to go on all those foreign holidays and consuming to the bitter end.

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  • I think many people have a reason to be very angry, regardless of age, though frankly older people who are not wealthy have a lot more to be worried about than the impoverished young, who at least have time on their side. Consumption has accelerated post-war with the environmental consequences we see today. You can lay the blame on a generation if you like, pointless though this is, but don’t forget many of the boomer generation rejected all this during the hippie era. That they all eventually took the money, so to speak, is no more than anyone else would do, regardless of birth date. It is simply an accident of history.

    Most people were not in a position to do much about it. The politicians and rich powerful corporations and their bosses were. The rich, as ever, do whatever they can to maintain their advantage, but they do not constitute an entire generation. It is interesting to consider the efforts of the Labour govts during the 60s and 70s to distribute wealth more evenly, who, along with the Altee govt, are the only govts to have seriously attempted this. You don’t have to read this site for long to see youthful diatribe against those ideas.

    LoC has less to worry about than some I think, at least on account of age. Housing booms do not last, so LoC may catch the next one if that is a measure of success. And incidentally, terrorism began ca 1970, so the boomers survived that plus the threat of armageddon.

    It is a grossly unequal society we live in; some individuals have benefited disproportionately (including some young). This is where we should focus our ire and demand a fairer system – progressive taxation, scepicism about the hubris of vested interest, decent levels of pay for everyone, fewer red herrings about inefficient public sector and other assorted outdated rubbish.

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  • Pluto in Leo covers the baby boomers generation. That is why we are seeing the Pluto in Scorpio generation taking mephedrone legally in large quantities, whitst the government decides on its merits. The drugs market is another illustration like the housing market where such mal-interference will affect such a generation tremendously, last time such an occurance occured was WWI. The relevance of what I am refering to in relation to astrology, is that this year, saturn (libra) will form an opposition to uranus & jupiter (aries) all squaring pluto (capricorn). In short, the explosives have been primed, all we need is for the heavens to unleash this energy. Whatever happens, selfish baby boomer or a thatcher baby, let’s hope that the changes will be swift and beneficial long term to all. We are all born under the stars.

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  • Incidentally, i was looking at when Neptune was in Aquarius, 1842 – 1852, and looked for a corresponding historical event: the irish potato famine, where rich landlords would get agents to sub divide land to the peasantry. Sound familiar? The basic subsistance of there people was the potato, as the better land was raised for cattle, then with on-set of potato blight, the ensuing famine, starved millions and forced emigration. It really doesn’t take a lot, whether naturally or orchestrated to create a tsunami of suffering on a nation or even the world.

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  • All part and parcel of the biggest bubble ever.

    Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring!

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