Sunday, February 7, 2010

Where now , for spain & the Euro?

Spanish PM's crisis talks to bolster economy

Worries that Spain would soon join Greece on Europe's sick list prompted the international sell-off which saw the Dow Jones crash below the 10,000 mark at one point last week. By Friday's close, the US and UK markets had recovered some of the losses although the FTSE 100 was still off £30bn.

Posted by happy mondays @ 06:19 AM (1011 views)
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7 thoughts on “Where now , for spain & the Euro?

  • mountain goat says:

    Related article in NYTimes on Euro and European Union.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/business/global/07greece.html

    “We have a centralized monetary policy, but we allow budgets and wages to move in different directions,” said Paul De Grauwe, an economist in Brussels who advises the president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso. “Without a political union, in the long run the euro zone cannot last.”

    Indeed, as core economies like those of France and Germany show signs of economic recovery, Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain are just entering savage recessions. Spain, the largest of the peripheral economies, announced last week that the number of its unemployed had reached four million — the highest in its history — and warned that the country’s deficit might be worse than previously thought.

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  • Will this have an effect on Santader Bank?

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  • mountain goat says:

    and
    “Greece’s government, meanwhile, has made bold promises to rein in spending, but the more than one million public workers may not accept that the state can no longer meet its commitments.

    As he dispensed lunchtime glasses of Greek brandy to his colleagues after an organizational meeting in a small union hall here, Panagiotis Vavougios, the 80-year-old head of the powerful, 200,000-strong retired civil servants union, was not in the mood to compromise.

    “It is not the workers that should be blamed for this; it is bankers and large capital,” Mr. Vavougios said. “We will take to the streets.”

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  • Hi MG – The bears might have to hang tough for the next couple of days though. I wondered if you have been looking at the EWI free week in currencies. Personally i find it all a bit too much detail and too caveated. But im interested in what you think?

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  • MG – if this is right – which it might be, this will probably suck out the bears in the “c” of pink (ii) and suck in some Bulls. I know you dont like the “squiggle” charts, and i suppose in the 1040s you could have said the market was very oversold anyway and looking for a bounce. Also the candle on Friday was a Hammer (although that’s a bit interpretative – see http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs18.asp [actually thats not a bad resource for candlestick patterns – http://www.candlesticker.com/Default.asp)

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S2yYNefClYI/AAAAAAAAD3E/XgW3RhFRkGc/s1600-h/spx1.png

    I am quite happy if thats right – i am looking for somewhere to add to core shorts. A move back up against this “news” backdrop will surprise a few and no doubt squeeze out some of the shorts. The only other 2 scenarios i can see are a double 3 (abc – x – abc) or the counter trend rally on his 5 min chart already being over, in that (his , double 3, and end of rally) order. Even a move back up to around 1100 wouldnt look completely out of place. This is (if “we” are right) wave 1 off the top of P3 – that means wave 2 is due.

    I would be surprised if we can maintain the move back off Friday’s lows all week… but stranger things have happened.

    The Ending Diagonal target is back to the beginning of wave 4, was ( i reckon) at around 1080 S&P cash basis – so we have made that target. [which was incidentally why i thought ES trader’s call of 1104 may have been right.

    What do you reckon MG?

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  • mountain goat says:

    TM thanks for your thoughts. Sorry been out all day on my allotment getting potato bed ready…

    @3 had a brief look but I can’t make any sense of it!

    @4 as you know I enjoy following the short term labeling but can’t/don’t tend to trade that way. But for what it’s worth my opinion.

    I looked at Daneric site and liked this one most http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S2y3BQtosmI/AAAAAAAAD3c/iaeneXvmPT0/s1600-h/djusfn1.png
    Looks like we have hit long term support/resistance zone (for the dollar too) so things could bounce around for a while and test the bears, especially if Europe cooks up some bailout plan.

    However, if this is [iii] of 1 of primary 3 things could get very dramatic and go into the free fall zone easily (free rising zone to 90 for the dollar). So getting a good short position will need some luck since there are so many sellers lining up. Dollar and silver both look very impulsive to me supporting [iii] labelling as the most likely.

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  • Thanks for you comments MG – i have just got back in myself… although i wasnt being as industrious as you i must say. I think his dailies sums it up : http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S27R00onuZI/AAAAAAAAD3s/8HEK2yMyJoo/s1600-h/spxdaily.png

    From his review associated with that : http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/02/weekend-charts.html

    I like this in particular:

    “So as EWI says, we have put in all the research, etc. Now its time for the market to work for us. The primary count is that the heart of a wave [iii] down or the “third of a third” is almost upon us. [To be precise: Wave (iii) of [iii] of 1 of (1) of [3] of cycle wave c of Supercycle wave (a) of Grand Supercycle wave [iv] – see my wave labeling key on the left side lower of this blog] When and where it will turn down is a matter of judgement, timing and waveform. We cannot know precisely when the overhead resistance will come to bear on any further attempts upwards. But we have some good guesses.

    We are looking for an a-b-c (ii) of [iii] rise to complete and then its showtime again to the downside. Thats a risk/reward trade thats worth playing for the potential move that is to come.”

    Some of the comments are worth looking at too. Have a good one MG!

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