Wednesday, February 17, 2010

What’s going on! News like this and the pound stays stable on currency markets!

U.K. Unemployment Claims Jump to Highest Since 1997

U.K. unemployment unexpectedly jumped in January to the highest level since Tony Blair led the ruling Labour Party to power almost 13 years ago as the recession destroyed work at businesses from carmakers to banks. Claims for jobless benefits rose by 23,500 from the previous month to 1.64 million, the highest since April 1997, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists was for a drop of 10,000. The Bank of England said last week that employment is at risk of falling “significantly further” if the economy’s recovery from the longest recession on record falters. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is counting on the pickup to gather momentum and help him to claw back voter support in time for an election due by June.

Posted by postle @ 10:16 AM (1088 views)
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6 thoughts on “What’s going on! News like this and the pound stays stable on currency markets!

  • Key points to note:

    Men forced to take temporary work rose by 9.2% from the previous quarter.

    34.6% working on a temporary basis had said they had failed to find permanent work. Up from 32.8%.

    People claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance rose by 23,500 to 1.64 million

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  • currency markets aren’t that simple:

    First, GBP compared to what? USD is main cross, their unemployment is 10%.
    Second, Employment is only one of many factors, new gov’t that will be more fiscally responsible on the horizon will support GBP.
    Third, GBP stable? Today, yes. This month? 1.67-1.57 is a big sell off. Since peak? 2.15-1.57 is enormous sell off.
    Fourth, markets look forward, how was today’s number compared to today’s expectations is much more relevant that merely today’s number.

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  • ” Gordon Brown is counting on the pickup to gather momentum and help him to claw back voter support ”

    – but Gordon Brown has never been very good at counting, has he?

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    The worrying thing is that House prices -which basically funded the last 13 years- have not lost enough value to allow a recovery in the wider economy.

    I cannot see the picture getting better any time soon. After all – those jobs that have been lost were financed by something which now surely has been agreed was unsustainable.

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  • ‘Prime Minister Gordon Brown is counting on the pickup to gather momentum and help him to claw back voter support in time for an election due by June.

    Wouldn’t surprise me if GB called the GE on the very last day possible. Grasping on to power for as long as he can, before the inevitable.

    Regarding currency, my later post attempts to explain some confidence – Reuters: Sterling rises versus euro after unanimous BoE minutes

    This article covers the same report. But discussion of double or treble dipping is not ruled out.
    ‘UK unemployment figures raise fears of double-dip recession’
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/7259395/UK-unemployment-figures-raise-fears-of-double-dip-recession.html

    Oooh, I do like a good roller-coaster ride, and it seems like this carriage has been rising for a long time. It’s going to be a scary ride down!

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