Tuesday, February 9, 2010

What a PIG

U.S. Stocks Rally on Growing Prospects for Bailout of Greece

This is the first I saw of the - the stock market reference isn't relevant. Enjoy!

Posted by techieman @ 06:22 PM (1587 views)
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28 thoughts on “What a PIG

  • I’m increasingly convinced that the markets move to pre-detmined positions (set by chartists) and then relevant news stories are attached to explain the move by the financial media.

    How else can you explain how accurately prices move up & down in a trading channel and bounce off levels of support and resistance.

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  • In fact this article is a classic.

    I mean come on did the markets really expect there wouldn’t be a bail out.

    And what’s the good news about yet another bailout, surely that’s bad news as confirmation that a bailout is actually needed and now we have even more debt to clear down.

    What Bloomberg are trying to do is justify their existence because the markets are simply in a small retracement of what is turning into a continued bear market.

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  • In fact I can almost guarantee that if not tomorrow then the day afetr there’ll be another story coming out to justify why the market has fallen again.

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  • Is it not that the media is trying to explain why the market (who should have discounted all the information available) is doing so and so rather than attaching story? The chartists are following the rules of the technical analysis and as such the prophecy fulfills itself. I mean if you know that the price bounces off resistance/support (usually, but not always) would you not set the appropriate orders?

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  • So, they have priced in the short term benefits of a bailout and stocks are only at 10100. Pathetic, this thing is going DOWN.

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  • Easy init?!! :-).

    blimey str – have i been body snatched? :-). Relax! I dont think you are exactly right, i wouldnt say “markets move to pre-detmined positions (set by chartists)”, although i would say there are high probabilities and that sometimes you are right, it obviously doesnt work all the time. [the trick is trying to work out when it probably will and might not]. I do agree with this though “then relevant news stories are attached to explain the move by the financial media”.

    You could very well be right, i was a bit worried that the shorts would get squeezed, when we discussed on Feb 4th:

    “Well to be honest i really dont know! It does look very bearish and it may be, but i am feeling a bit skeptical – it just feels too easy really which worries me. I am thinking that a bit lower then a bounce back. I really dont have what i would believe to be a high probability call. If there is a rally i dont think that will be the end of the bear move, and yes i may very well add some more positions, but really i would like to see some more market action before committing myself. ”

    A low of 1044 and then a hammer on the candles, back up today to 1080. that fits the bill. Although i will be first to admit i did hedge my bets a bit didn’t i!! Re-shorted today some of the stuff i bought back in the 1050s / 60s basis march.

    Lets not count our chickens though – see what the close brings.

    ” am quite happy if thats [http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S2yYNefClYI/AAAAAAAAD3E/XgW3RhFRkGc/s1600-h/spx1.png] right – i am looking for somewhere to add to core shorts. A move back up against this “news” backdrop will surprise a few and no doubt squeeze out some of the shorts. The only other 2 scenarios i can see are a double 3 (abc – x – abc) or the counter trend rally on his 5 min chart already being over, in that (his , double 3, and end of rally) order. Even a move back up to around 1100 wouldnt look completely out of place. This is (if “we” are right) wave 1 off the top of P3 – that means wave 2 is due. ”

    See: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2010/02/blog-where-now-for-spain-the-euro-27612.php

    mine @ 5 and mountain goats @ 6.

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  • Money was moved from DOW which was down almost 800 points from 10,700 to 9980
    This was used to short EURO

    Euro fell, money made. As you got money dollars for the Euro.

    Profits taken and then cheaper stocks bought at DOW.

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  • Money was moved from DOW which was down almost 800 points from 10,700 to 9980
    This was used to short EURO

    Euro fell, money made. As you got money dollars for the Euro.

    Profits taken and then cheaper stocks bought at DOW.

    Herd mentality; impressive clout.

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  • markj69 str05 says:

    Just interested, are you all traders, or do youinvest presonal money?

    How can one, with no professional exposure to trading take advantage of the markets etc…?

    Can you recommend any good reading?

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  • Just interested, are you all traders, or do youinvest presonal money?

    I won’t answer that, as my views have little value…….I was told by techieman.

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  • hi mark

    Am watching the Dow for the last half hour. I traded on the LSE in traded options a long long while ago and then LIFFE as a local. There are literally thousands of methods out there and when i came off the floor it took me lots of years and lots of mistakes to make it pay. Lots of books and methods – both fundamental and technical. You then have to really decide what you are comfortable with. And things evolve. I used to be very short term on the floor but now thats not the case.

    I only recommend one book and thats the market wizards by Jack Schwager. The Daneric blog is good too, but its based on Elliott Wave – which lots of people think is a load of tosh.

    Finally read http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/03/blog-dont-get-fooled-by-the-stock-market-bounce-22461.php especially number 2. by flash ….

    Flashman is a forex player who speaks good sense IMO (for what thats worth)

    10 no 9 mins to go…

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  • “I won’t answer that, as my views have little value…….I was told by techieman.”

    only when you disagree with the egotestical [sic] bast’rd! (i.e. me!).

    Sorry HPW i was a bit rude there, you are right inasmuch as i should have been more courteous. I did give in on a couple of your points though…. although i still believe they are all much of a muchness, i accept that you might have a different and perhaps valid view. Agree to disagree i suppose. I think the problem is we disagree on most things! I think the other problem is its difficult to extract an analysis from you, but hey each to their own.

    I’m being nice and im not even in profit on these new shorts! (or are they the old shorts with a trading profit banked?!?!).

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  • finally (and then i will shut up) i think you should look at my personal favourite trader (not that i agree with his views but i can relate to his methodology) is Paul Tudor Jones : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Tudor_Jones. especially his “Trading style and beliefs”.

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  • Shorts, Longs, Bulls, Bears… pretty coloured lines *LOL*

    STRONG HANDS, WEAK HANDS and the public.

    Pay attention to what I am telling you!

    http://twitter.com/escontract

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  • estrader – im not taking the p1ss – really im not but are you still looking for 1248 or whatever it was on the S&Ps?

    Ive just looked at yr twitter too and its not that accurate really. I mean for instance : “ESH0 – I am not seeing any signs yet of this rally ending. I expect the market to hit the mid to high 1150’s soon.
    1:02 AM Jan 20th from web” – i mean really that call couldn’t be more wrong, could it?.

    and “1061-1063 is STILL an important level.” i am curious why you think that?

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  • @14 – Techie,

    1) I don’t remember ever making a call for 1248? Where did I make that?

    2) Pick and choose, but I identified the 1061-1063 level as being important back in early October 2009 and you honestly can’t ‘see’ why?

    3) “i mean really that call couldn’t be more wrong, could it?” – maybe

    STR2007, Pay attention to what I am saying and ignore the mainstream pretty coloured line talk.

    STRONG HANDS, WEAK HANDS and the public.

    I’m not interested in arguing about it. Either you know or you don’t.

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  • Thanks for the reply EStrader

    “but I identified the 1061-1063 level as being important back in early October 2009 and you honestly can’t ‘see’ why?” – maybe i can and maybe i cant, but i am asking you, you have quoted it, not me!!

    Im not arguing about anything, i was just asking a question. I mean we all have different positions, different timeframes etc etc. If i mention a level i generally know why I have mentioned it and am happy to share with the class. I really don’t need to argue either, my argument is with the market when there is some cash on that table.

    Its all very well saying “STRONG HANDS, WEAK HANDS and the public.” but its a bit meaningless unless you can identify where each is, and maybe you can, but to say it to someone else…. well its a bit like a jigsaw without the box and with half the pieces missing.

    Re the 1248 – apologies on that one – you said 1150:

    “11. estrader said…
    1. techieman said…”About time we had some bear food to munch on!”

    Bear food? I doubt it, just a little reaction for the public and the weak hands in my opinion. I figure the ESH will be back up to the mid to high 1120’s or higher sometime in the next couple of weeks. I figure it should break above the mid to high 1150’s.

    But as always, do your own research!

    Friday, January 22, 2010 07:52AM”

    and i said:

    “estrader – its a safe call, but that doesnt make it a right one in my view. Still yes the odds are in your favour but i personally would have to disagree on this occassion. Im sure you will realise this from other postings.

    And anyway why quote the emini for March? Why not the bigger bruv. SP? Re 1120 yes that might happen after some more downside first – i.e. as a retracement – but we arent a million miles away from that anyway – sneeze and it might blip up there. As for the breach of the prior top though we will just have to agree to disagree. The volume this week was pretty big comparatively.”

    http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2010/01/blog-shame-on-you-brown-and-darling-27357.php

    And your tweet keeps mentioning 200- 300 points…. its unclear whether thats up or down – and no im just showing what you wrote – no pick and choosing at all. You told me you were 90% accurate… unless i got that wrong too.

    ” still anticipate a 200-300 point move from 1061-1063. I am still bearish. I’m confident next week will make things clearer.
    1:02 AM Oct 24th, 2009 from web”

    “1091-1094 is also an important level. If market breaks above this level then I would concede the 200-300 point move will be upwards.
    1:06 AM Oct 24th, 2009 from web”

    “ESZ9 is now back at the low 1060’s of early October.
    12:10 PM Oct 26th, 2009 from web”

    Anyway im not trying to get one over on you im really not – i have been horrendously wrong in the past and im nowhere near “90% accurate” – depending on yr definition of that, and that i was i trade with decent size stops… because im not that accurate.

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  • @16 Techie, I did explain to you that I am a short term trader so basically my trades last no longer than about 5 minutes (That’s a good trade!) I generally like to be in and out in less time. In the years of study and practice it has taken me to get to a level of proficiency where I can do that with a very tight stop I have learned to recognise patterns which allow me to (attempt to) make longer term forecasts even though I don’t trade them on the ES. What you read on twitter are my longer term forecasts (and notes really) based on what I think I am seeing now, so to speak. The reason I say ‘think’ I am seeing is because as you know, trading is a game and the strong hands play tricks, they obfuscate and misdirect. Asking me whether what I am seeing now is accumulation or distribution is a bit like asking the question “If I hear the clopping of hooves is it a horse or a zebra?” The strong hands can take weeks and/or months to complete their operation and as someone once said, it is in an arena where gladiatorial combat takes place and only the fittest survive. Good trading to you.

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  • markj69 str05 says:

    @ Techie.. Thanks for the response. Not sure i’ll be doing much short term, but who knows, after a bit of swatting up, I might just have a dabble! It’s got to be better than seeing my savings depreciate whilst sat in a savings acc’t. And dispite wishing/hoping the oportunity would have arisen by now, I don’t think proprety is a safe bet! Poss’ 2-3 more years, but don’t tell mrsJ!

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  • estrader…. without being rude, i really think you should stick to the short term if that’s where yr expertise, and high % probabilities lie. As for me.. been there done that and actually find it very boring, so prefer to relax with some position plays (incidentially alot of my trading is on softs, but i dont mention them here… I like the FTSE too but thats a background thing)…… but each to their own. Good luck!

    Mark one thing from Flashman (i think the % is slightly lower about 95% – infact if after the first year you have LOST < 10% of your money you are doing very very well!!) : "5. 99.9% of new traders lose everything and leave the game. REALLY THINK ABOUT THIS because the ability of human beings to consider themselves part of the 0.01% should be made an official 'wonder of the world'

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  • markj69 str05 says:

    I’ve see ‘Trading places’ many a time – Eddie Murphy seemed to get the hang of it pretty quick. Orange concentate wasn’t it?

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  • Thanks for that feedback techieman.

    I haven’t got any positions open at the moment, been waiting for the S&P to retrace and hopefully get in behind a decent fall, but we’ll see.

    estrader

    Have I upset you today ?

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  • @20 marke, LOL, most people think it is that…simples.

    I have been trading shares on and off for around 15 years but got into short term trading about 5 years ago. That was after I paid off my mortgage and had a large disposable income. I have spent $1000’s learning the game and 5 years of my life has virtually disappeared. It will take your emotions and finances to hell and back. Do not dabble unless you can affort to lose $1000 of your money and 1000’s of hours of your time. I have heard of many people who have ruined their marriages because of their obsession with learning the trading game. You have been warned.

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  • @21, No, not at all? Trading talk brings the worst out of me…sorry if I come across as uncouth at times.

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  • markj69 str05 says:

    Thank you all. I appreciate your comments and will take heed. If it amounts to anything, I’ll let you know.

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  • estrader
    That’s good & yes agree with all your comments @ 22, it is hard, but I don’t think impossible. If anything the time element is the hardest as it is absorbing.
    More money can probably be made putting the time into a good business.

    But it is fun when you get it right.

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  • I agree tc, but long term I only see lavender in shorts. It will probably top out mid summer but find support in the upswing.

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  • The way I think of short term trading is that its like online poker – its essentially a zero sum game with people trying to take money off of each other, i.e. its not really “investment” in any sense. Even buying equities for growth is really not “investment” because it relies on more money flowing into the market, rather that a genuine yield (i.e. a dividend) … just like the property market :-).

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