Thursday, February 18, 2010

Let the crash begin

Gross mortgage lending declined in January

Gross mortgage lending declined to an estimated £9.1 billion in January, a 32% fall from £13.4 billion in December and a 21% fall from £11.5 billion in January 2009, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. the lowest January total since 2000

Posted by cynicalsoothsayer @ 09:57 AM (1809 views)
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17 thoughts on “Let the crash begin

  • You just know that the February figure will be “the largest monthly increase since records began”

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  • That’s 72,800 homes @ £125K*, or 52,000 @£175K* can this really just the effect of the end of the stamp duty holiday? I don’t think so.
    * stamp duty holiday temporarily moved the 1% boundary from £125K to £175K

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Until a year ago or so I had been looking forward to a quick, nasty/brilliant (delete according to taste) crash, but now I reckon it will be a long drawn out affair lasting years or even decades.

    Normally, I’d have pounced on this sort of figure to say it was the beginning of the end, but I’m not sure it is anymore. As the man said, “Whatever it takes”.

    But, as long as nominal house prices by a greater amount than the rent you pay, the key must be to stay renting.

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  • Didn’t it snow a lot in January? It’s hard to go house-hunting when the roads are closed.

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  • “as long as nominal house prices by a greater amount than the rent you pay, the key must be to stay renting”

    except that as a renter (and by extension saver relative to if you owned) you have to accept the fact that your income will be taxed, your savings depleted by inflation as debtors debts are eroded by inflation, you will only get savings interest below real inflation and what p1ss poor interest you do get will also be taxed.

    Effectively you will be robbed blind to keep the prices high.

    I am disappointed at the number of people that have signed up to saveoursavers.co.uk. All it will take is a bit of organisation and a threat to remove funds from one specific bank, and this theft could be stopped dead in its tracks.

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  • cynicalsoothsayer says:

    I feed you some bear food and you don’t like the smell of it?

    This has been widely trailed by the CML, saying that with the end of the Special Liquidity Scheme and the Credit Guarantee Scheme their sources of mortgage funding will dry up. If what they are saying is true then this is just the start.

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  • According to (CEBR) I think – house prices are expected to go up 20 to 30% in the next few years!

    Interesting

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Inbreda, yes I know that Home-Owner-Ism means people being robbed blind (and to a large extent they are robbing themselves, because most Home-Owner-Ists also have a job) but my maths is simple

    I have savings of A and earn paltry interest of B (after tax) and pay rent of C. Over a year, I end up, in pure cash terms, £10,000 worse off.

    The houses in my area where we would like to buy on day are going down by £30,000 to £50,000 in price every year (in pure cash terms).

    Therefore, assuming that I intend to buy sooner or later, every year I wait I end up £20,000 to £40,000 better off.

    (Sure, the value of my savings is being eroded, and my income is being taxed to subsidise house prices that’s a separate issue).

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  • gone-to-colombia says:

    I never thought it would be a swift crash, three years was my prediction.
    The government’s sqandering of huge sums of money and QE has hel up the crash for a while.
    But crash it will. I suspect that what we will see will be a series of small crashes, large at first, that last anything up to a decade.
    Each crash will be followed by a small recovery.
    Added to this, inflation will take some of the price decline as well.

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  • A Bear In The Woods says:

    Unless there is a significant increase in supply I don’t see the crash coming. The sellers strike is what is preventing it from happening, reducing supply on the market which is holding the price up. Are the gov’t going to do everying that they can to prevent reposessions? Of course they are…

    In some areas there is very little quality property coming up and still pent up demand. A house in an area where we have been looking recently had 12 closed bids and went at least £35K over the 275K asking price (although it was underpriced…)

    The aggregate indicies hide a much more complex picture, I’m often suprised that isn’t acknowlegded more often on this site…

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  • To Inbreda @ post 5 – I agree with you about the disappointing response to the http://www.saveoursavers.co.uk poll that they set up on the Downing Street website. I know that this website is very popular so if we all signed it then maybe we could muster up a decent amount of signatures. But who was said that for evil to triumph, all it takes is for good men to do nothing? It looks as if savers are all talk and no action and if the government and banks know this then savers will never get anywhere. Come on guys go visit http://www.saveoursavers.co.uk and sign the petition…..

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  • Oops, I misread the article… It didn’t fall BY 9.1, it fell TO 9.1, so my numbers should be 34,400 and 24,600 respectively – this is still pretty damn high for just the end of the stamp duty holiday cause stated. Snow could be it as pointed out by drewster.

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  • If you smooth out the effect of the stamp duty holiday ending and the terrible winter weather this year by looking at the 3 month Nov-Dec-Jan figures for 08/09 and comparing that to the same period for 09/10, how do the numbers compare? Is there still such as sharp drop?

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  • charlie brooker says:

    Dislocation Dislocation Dislocation.

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  • Why does inflation reduce debts can someone point that out to me

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  • tenyearstogetmymoneyback says:

    matt_the_hat said…Why does inflation reduce debts can someone point that out to me

    I will use my parents three bed semi as an example. It was bought in 1967 for £5000.
    At the time my Mum thought that it was a huge amount and was worried how they would
    ever be able to pay it off. Twenty years later they were both on about £20K a year and fitting
    double glazing cost more than paying off the mortgage

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