Monday, January 4, 2010

Optimism – to anticipate the best possible outcome

House prices face decade of 'sobriety'

''According to the upmarket estate agent, while inflation-adjusted house prices grew 68pc in the Noughties, prices will grow just 40pc in the next decade. This compares with -14pc in the 1990s, 43pc in the 1980s and 49pc in the 1970s. "The Noughties will be remembered as a decade of polarisation – its legacy a residential market split, possibly irrevocable, between the equity haves and have-nots," Lucian Cook, director, Savills residential research, said.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:48 AM (1105 views)
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5 thoughts on “Optimism – to anticipate the best possible outcome

  • A further burden is the masses of flats left by the Noughties. Changes in planning rules, the rise of buy-to-let, and the search for swifter returns from housebuilders mean the last 10 years were characterised by a rise in the number of flats being built at the expense of detached and semi-detached homes.

    “The buy-to-let boom was driven by the bubble in easy and cheap credit,” Liam Bailey of Knight Frank says. “It unfortunately led to the rise of the speculator led urban development and all those tiny one and two bedroom flats.”

    From 2000 to 2008 the proportion of newly-built homes that were flats rose from just over 15pc to almost 50pc. In contrast, detached housing fell from 45pc to less than 15pc.

    Note there’s still no indication where the demand is going to come from with properties at current prices – they’re still referring to the demand side of the equation as a given and concentrating on supply.

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  • there is demand for bentleys…and little supply….why doesn’t everyone own one?

    After this unpresedented boom houseprices could drop for 20 years like oil and gold after 1980’s

    Why oh why do we think high house prices that ftbuyers cannot afford are great news?

    in japan houseprices have been falling for 19 years…in central tokyo some are 90% lower that 1991 and kids have little or no interest in buying property……a 1 bed flat is 1x average salary

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  • 1970s = +49%
    1980s = +43%
    1990s = -14%
    2000s = +68%
    2010s = +40% sounds about right (average increase/decade for last 40 years = 36.5%).

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  • Why oh why do we think high house prices that ftbuyers cannot afford are great news?

    Well, a Daily Telegraph reader probably owns a house, may not want to sell, and possibly expects to afford equity withdrawal later. So they would think it good news.

    The Thatcher Conservatives evaded the consequences of a high unemployment policy because enough people in work were doing well. Homeowners are the current equivalent of those with jobs paying less tax during the early 1980s.

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  • “in central tokyo… a 1 bed flat is 1x average salary”

    Sources? it certainly wasn’t when i was living there two years ago – the average price for the average central Tokyo apartment was about Y50m (which is currently about £300,000)

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