Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Interesting graphs

House prics - After the crash

When The Economist last took stock of house prices across the globe, prices were falling in all but two countries. Three months later, prices are now rising in a total of six countries. Hong Kong is experiencing double-digit growth. Our interactive house-price tool allows you to chart the ups and downs of house prices for 20 of the most important economies over several years. In addition, the chart lets you compare house prices in real terms and against average incomes, providing ample fodder for that next dinner-table debate.

Posted by little professor @ 04:05 AM (1990 views)
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11 thoughts on “Interesting graphs

  • Spain’s chart is pretty extreme. But they have 30% un-employment? So the locals can’t afford to buy. It all sounds familiar doesn’t it?

    If the locals in a country can’t afford to buy – then the housing markets have become the preserve of the very wealthy.

    I look forward to the ensuing civil wars.

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  • hello will: Spain’s unemployment rate is about 19% but is tipped to reach 22%. You might be thinking about their youth unemployment rates? Spain has the highest home ownership rates in Europe (approximately 85%) so there aren’t many locals who need to buy houses. They also have an excess supply of stock that will keep prices down for some time to come. We have about half their unemployment rate and we certainly haven’t had the building boom they experienced, so we have a quite different housing picture.

    The UK housing charts do not appear to include the last six months of house price rises, so the charts should be mentally adjusted for that.

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  • But, unlike the UK, does Spain have as much debt, a poor balance of payments and a bond crisis looming?

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  • Flashman

    If Britain’s housing market remains significantly higher than most other European Countries according to earnings, then I am certain many who are unable to buy here will consider leaving the UK. The UK market will loose a greater proportion of first time buyers than at any time. Then who will buy the houses at the top of the ladder, when those fortunate enough to own a house wish to sell?

    Investors could ultimately buy all the houses, but the rent that they could expect would not be based upon the market value of the house. The wages of the population will determine the rent.

    This housing market was based upon an experiment by the banks to flood the country with cheap credit. That has backfired, the music has stopped and reality will now return. No amount of spin will force first timers to this market, as they are not as stupid as those who created the mess we are now in.

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  • One of the top investment guys said before this spate of bad weather that emigration from the UK would be a key theme for 2010. Sounds like he’s right on the money. I can’t wait to get back out of this sh*thole of a country.
    You would really think with the amount of income and council tax, petrol tax, VAT, road tax etc we pay we would have the right to expect safe roads to drive on. My plans over the festive season were totally wrecked by the iced up roads in Fife and eventually on Saturday I just gave up driving completely. Our country roads have hardly been cleared at all and the pavements even in the towns are like ice rinks. I’m sorry for all the old people trapped in their homes and people who have to face a daily commute. I’ve sent three emails of complaint to Fife council. It’s outrageous that they don’t have proper task forces to deal with snow, they could easily call on unemployed people to help. And there’s nowhere you can find out which roads are being cleared, it’s total guesswork. A friend just rang to say she is not sure if she can get back home tomorrow due to airport closures.
    In Switzerland the weather makes no difference, it’s business as usual with the snowploughs running day and night. I never drove on a slippery road even once. And they take far less tax off you. But then they don’t spend p*ss away taxpayers money putting up hordes of dubious people from other countries in seven-bedroom London mansions.
    Sorry for going off topic but I am so totally PO’d! Think I have cabin fever…

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  • hpwatcher and will: I’m just stating the facts. I’m not making any claims or predictions.

    will: I’ve read surveys where an incredibly high % of the population would like to emigrate (particularly amongst the under 30’s). I am never sure how many people will actually manage to emigrate because most people will find it hard to earn a living elsewhere. Visas are not easy to obtain for non-EU countries and of course there is often a language and culture problem

    Another thing worth recognising is that we have a lower unemployment rate than many, so people would find it hard to gain employment in another country (a country with high unemployment is bound to favour their own nationals)

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  • Flashman

    We only have low employment because of the number of government related jobs funded by hpi and financial services tax. Take away these non jobs (as spending is cut and income falls ) then our unemployment rate will rocket! (gordans economic miracle)

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  • Interesting find, Little Professor.

    The only two countries that show a steady decline are Germany and Japan who both have made a name for themselves in manufacturing. Coincidence?

    The Japanese graph should be used to smack down the next person who claims that our houses are expensive because we live on an crowded island.

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  • Crikey – South Africa!?

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  • Themaskedtulip says:

    I think that 2010 will be seen as the start of a brain drain from the UK not seen since the 1970s.

    House prices will be one factor but also will be the millions of people working in the private sector who find themselves earnin less than public sector workers whilst paying higher taxes in order to pay the pensions of those public sector workers.

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  • tenant super says:

    “will: I’ve read surveys where an incredibly high % of the population would like to emigrate (particularly amongst the under 30’s). I am never sure how many people will actually manage to emigrate because most people will find it hard to earn a living elsewhere. Visas are not easy to obtain for non-EU countries and of course there is often a language and culture problem”.

    Absolutely correct. I am currently having my Canadian visa processed (not that I really want to go but am applying anyway so it’s an option) and it takes years without having an employment offer already in place (I have a bachelor degree in a scientific discipline, and a masters in bioethics, unfortunately, my French is only basic to intermediate and they still don’t want me in a hurry). With a doctorate, it will be easier to find a job (US or Canada) that requires specialist qualifications and the visa will be expedited. What many other countries don’t need are advertising sales executives, HR managers, estate agents, recruitment consultants, PR directors and all the other stuff most of my old schoolchums do.

    So as Flashman says, only a small proportion will actually be able to emigrate and guess what, they’re exactly the people you don’t want to lose. Unless the cost of living and quality of life in this country improves, the brain drain will leave this country to skid down its dysgenic slope faster than you can say ‘reality tv sucks big donkey dos ‘.

    Without a correction in the house prices to wages ratio, the massive polarisation between the living standards of generations boomer and X vs generation Y can only get worse. But generation Y are docile and looking at my younger brothers, their inability to afford to be independent has infantilized them so I don’t see any social unrest here (youth riots in the streets Greek style) any time soon.

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